How can I avoid the game being rigged?

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How can I avoid the game being rigged?

Postby Balch on Wed Nov 21, 2012 11:02 pm

I've played a little over a dozen games, and these are common, if not expected results:

-My 7 attacking 1, lose all 6 men.
-Their 10 attacking my 10, they lose 0 men and capture.
-Their 25 attacking my 15, they lose 1 man and capture.
-It takes 5 cards for me to get a set, every set, every game.
-I have a seen a lone defender roll a 6 5 times in a row.

This is the majority of the game, every game. What the f*ck kind of acid high were you on when you wrote this programming?
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Balch on Wed Nov 21, 2012 11:21 pm

And yes, these are actual examples of shit that has happened in the last day. 15 defenders lost while only killing one? That's 15 roles with at most 1 6 rolled. The odds of any 14 rolls not hitting a 6 is 7.78%. The odds of an attacker killer two defenders 7 times in a row is 0.0980275001633625%. That's less than a tenth of a percent. But I did kill one attacker. So assuming (best case for the game's odds) that the one defensive victory came in the middle of the streak, the attacker had atleast 4 clean sweeps in a row, or a 1.9% chance. Sounds likely right? So the odds of that happening was between .09% and 1.9%

How about the 10 attackers killing 10 defenders without losing a man? This one is easier to be precise with, since there were no defensive victories. The attacker killed two defenders 5 consecutive times. A .709% chance. Yes, that's less than 1%.

Seven troops attacking one and being reduced to one themselves? .329% chance. About a third of a percent chance.

But these aren't occurring at a less than one percent rate. They are occurring every game, multiple times a game. It only takes a little math to see how fucked up this games coding is.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Dukasaur on Wed Nov 21, 2012 11:49 pm

If unlikely event A should occur 1% of the time, and unlikely event B should occur 1% of the time, you're likely to see A or B 2% of the time.

Add up the probabilities of ALL the unlikely events you've seen, and as a group they're not so unlikely.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Balch on Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:28 am

You never took statistics did you...
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby chapcrap on Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:39 am

Balch wrote:You never took statistics did you...

If you wanted to play the statistics card, you would no that your sample size is too small and there are always outliers in statistics.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Balch on Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:56 am

Just now, right this instant, rolling 3 dice 5 times in a row against two defenders, I lost 2 attackers 5 consecutive times .0214% odds.

I think what you meant to say is given the amount of scenarios that play out in any given day, it would actually be more statistically improbably for something rare not to happen. But this isn't one thing, it's every fucking game. That's not more likely, that's even less likely.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Dukasaur on Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:56 am

Balch wrote:You never took statistics did you...

Actually, I majored in Biochemistry with a minor in Economics, both of which require advanced statistics courses, so yeah, I did.

I was trying to be helpful, but if you want to be an arrogant prick go somewhere else.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Balch on Thu Nov 22, 2012 1:00 am

It is not arrogant to say you are wrong, when in fact you are.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Extreme Ways on Thu Nov 22, 2012 1:18 am

Noting personal, but I think it's more than the dice when you are a cook. People tend to remember the bad things better than the good things in life, and so it is with the dice too. It is unlikely, but do you want a game without dice instead?

EDIT: WHat's the chance for rolling 2-0 1-1 2-0 0-2 1-1 1-1 2-0 0-2 in a row?
Pretty low I guess, while you were actually only a bit unlucky.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby agentcom on Thu Nov 22, 2012 3:49 am

Looking at your Dice Battle Outcomes, you do have some bad luck. But it's nothing outside of normal variation for such a small sample size. What is likely compounding your bad luck (and your frustration) is your bad play. I don't think that I've ever been able to tell that someone is a bad player just by looking at their dice stats until yours.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby DeluxeHazard on Thu Nov 22, 2012 5:04 am

Balch wrote:-My 7 attacking 1, lose all 6 men.
-Their 10 attacking my 10, they lose 0 men and capture.
-Their 25 attacking my 15, they lose 1 man and capture.
-It takes 5 cards for me to get a set, every set, every game.
-I have a seen a lone defender roll a 6 5 times in a row.


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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby SirSebstar on Thu Nov 22, 2012 6:49 am

@Balch
Dude, your luck sucks.
lets start with that. Is it common to have bad luck. Yes, sadly everybody gets loosing streaks. Since you are pretty new, your loosing streak is fenominal. I am sorry to see that this gives you grief.
Conquerclub gets dicerolls from random.org. There is a lot of information on how they try to be as random as is possible.
I guess somewhere else, someone has stolen all your 6'es. If you get premium, your dice will not automaticly improve, but you will get to be able to play a lot more games. Over time your dicestreaks will tend to average out more.

in addition, someone suggested you improve your tactics. They do not make your dice better, but if can help with getting a few wins an better games. For more information on SoC, search here: http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=341
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby chapcrap on Thu Nov 22, 2012 8:22 am

agentcom wrote:Looking at your Dice Battle Outcomes, you do have some bad luck. But it's nothing outside of normal variation for such a small sample size. What is likely compounding your bad luck (and your frustration) is your bad play. I don't think that I've ever been able to tell that someone is a bad player just by looking at their dice stats until yours.

You need to post your analysis here!!
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby generalhead on Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:03 am

Wouldn't it be the easiest to say that every ones dice draws come from the same place so how could it be unfair. Maybe if you could explain how the dice draws are unfair for one player and not for another when they pull from the same place. every one gets bad dice and every one gets good dice. To become a better player you have to play the dice. If you roll and lose two troops and they lose non if might be smart to wait for another round to attack again. Some players will roll lose two, roll lose two, roll lose two. I recommend if you roll and lose two the first roll stop and wait for another round.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby agentcom on Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:23 am

chapcrap wrote:
agentcom wrote:Looking at your Dice Battle Outcomes, you do have some bad luck. But it's nothing outside of normal variation for such a small sample size. What is likely compounding your bad luck (and your frustration) is your bad play. I don't think that I've ever been able to tell that someone is a bad player just by looking at their dice stats until yours.

You need to post your analysis here!!


Fine .... Here's something that I shared with some others. This is post 1 of 2:

agentcom wrote:So, I came across this interesting post in the Strategy section:

Subject: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Balch wrote:I've played a little over a dozen games, and these are common, if not expected results:

-My 7 attacking 1, lose all 6 men.
-Their 10 attacking my 10, they lose 0 men and capture.
-Their 25 attacking my 15, they lose 1 man and capture.
-It takes 5 cards for me to get a set, every set, every game.
-I have a seen a lone defender roll a 6 5 times in a row.

This is the majority of the game, every game. What the f*ck kind of acid high were you on when you wrote this programming?


OK, so maybe another guy bitching about his dice isn't really that interesting, but after some back and forth between him and some other commenters, I ended up responding with this:

Looking at your dice stats, you do have some bad luck. But it's nothing outside of normal variation for such a small sample size. What is likely compounding your bad luck (and your frustration) is your bad play. I don't think that I've ever been able to tell that someone is a bad player just by looking at their dice stats until yours.


I'll post the his overall dice stats below and see if you can tell why I said that. The answer will be in the next post.

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