How can I avoid the game being rigged?

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How can I avoid the game being rigged?

Postby Balch on Wed Nov 21, 2012 11:02 pm

I've played a little over a dozen games, and these are common, if not expected results:

-My 7 attacking 1, lose all 6 men.
-Their 10 attacking my 10, they lose 0 men and capture.
-Their 25 attacking my 15, they lose 1 man and capture.
-It takes 5 cards for me to get a set, every set, every game.
-I have a seen a lone defender roll a 6 5 times in a row.

This is the majority of the game, every game. What the f*ck kind of acid high were you on when you wrote this programming?
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Balch on Wed Nov 21, 2012 11:21 pm

And yes, these are actual examples of shit that has happened in the last day. 15 defenders lost while only killing one? That's 15 roles with at most 1 6 rolled. The odds of any 14 rolls not hitting a 6 is 7.78%. The odds of an attacker killer two defenders 7 times in a row is 0.0980275001633625%. That's less than a tenth of a percent. But I did kill one attacker. So assuming (best case for the game's odds) that the one defensive victory came in the middle of the streak, the attacker had atleast 4 clean sweeps in a row, or a 1.9% chance. Sounds likely right? So the odds of that happening was between .09% and 1.9%

How about the 10 attackers killing 10 defenders without losing a man? This one is easier to be precise with, since there were no defensive victories. The attacker killed two defenders 5 consecutive times. A .709% chance. Yes, that's less than 1%.

Seven troops attacking one and being reduced to one themselves? .329% chance. About a third of a percent chance.

But these aren't occurring at a less than one percent rate. They are occurring every game, multiple times a game. It only takes a little math to see how fucked up this games coding is.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Dukasaur on Wed Nov 21, 2012 11:49 pm

If unlikely event A should occur 1% of the time, and unlikely event B should occur 1% of the time, you're likely to see A or B 2% of the time.

Add up the probabilities of ALL the unlikely events you've seen, and as a group they're not so unlikely.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Balch on Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:28 am

You never took statistics did you...
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby chapcrap on Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:39 am

Balch wrote:You never took statistics did you...

If you wanted to play the statistics card, you would no that your sample size is too small and there are always outliers in statistics.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Balch on Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:56 am

Just now, right this instant, rolling 3 dice 5 times in a row against two defenders, I lost 2 attackers 5 consecutive times .0214% odds.

I think what you meant to say is given the amount of scenarios that play out in any given day, it would actually be more statistically improbably for something rare not to happen. But this isn't one thing, it's every fucking game. That's not more likely, that's even less likely.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Dukasaur on Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:56 am

Balch wrote:You never took statistics did you...

Actually, I majored in Biochemistry with a minor in Economics, both of which require advanced statistics courses, so yeah, I did.

I was trying to be helpful, but if you want to be an arrogant prick go somewhere else.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Balch on Thu Nov 22, 2012 1:00 am

It is not arrogant to say you are wrong, when in fact you are.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Extreme Ways on Thu Nov 22, 2012 1:18 am

Noting personal, but I think it's more than the dice when you are a cook. People tend to remember the bad things better than the good things in life, and so it is with the dice too. It is unlikely, but do you want a game without dice instead?

EDIT: WHat's the chance for rolling 2-0 1-1 2-0 0-2 1-1 1-1 2-0 0-2 in a row?
Pretty low I guess, while you were actually only a bit unlucky.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby agentcom on Thu Nov 22, 2012 3:49 am

Looking at your Dice Battle Outcomes, you do have some bad luck. But it's nothing outside of normal variation for such a small sample size. What is likely compounding your bad luck (and your frustration) is your bad play. I don't think that I've ever been able to tell that someone is a bad player just by looking at their dice stats until yours.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby DeluxeHazard on Thu Nov 22, 2012 5:04 am

Balch wrote:-My 7 attacking 1, lose all 6 men.
-Their 10 attacking my 10, they lose 0 men and capture.
-Their 25 attacking my 15, they lose 1 man and capture.
-It takes 5 cards for me to get a set, every set, every game.
-I have a seen a lone defender roll a 6 5 times in a row.


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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby SirSebstar on Thu Nov 22, 2012 6:49 am

@Balch
Dude, your luck sucks.
lets start with that. Is it common to have bad luck. Yes, sadly everybody gets loosing streaks. Since you are pretty new, your loosing streak is fenominal. I am sorry to see that this gives you grief.
Conquerclub gets dicerolls from random.org. There is a lot of information on how they try to be as random as is possible.
I guess somewhere else, someone has stolen all your 6'es. If you get premium, your dice will not automaticly improve, but you will get to be able to play a lot more games. Over time your dicestreaks will tend to average out more.

in addition, someone suggested you improve your tactics. They do not make your dice better, but if can help with getting a few wins an better games. For more information on SoC, search here: http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=341
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby chapcrap on Thu Nov 22, 2012 8:22 am

agentcom wrote:Looking at your Dice Battle Outcomes, you do have some bad luck. But it's nothing outside of normal variation for such a small sample size. What is likely compounding your bad luck (and your frustration) is your bad play. I don't think that I've ever been able to tell that someone is a bad player just by looking at their dice stats until yours.

You need to post your analysis here!!
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby generalhead on Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:03 am

Wouldn't it be the easiest to say that every ones dice draws come from the same place so how could it be unfair. Maybe if you could explain how the dice draws are unfair for one player and not for another when they pull from the same place. every one gets bad dice and every one gets good dice. To become a better player you have to play the dice. If you roll and lose two troops and they lose non if might be smart to wait for another round to attack again. Some players will roll lose two, roll lose two, roll lose two. I recommend if you roll and lose two the first roll stop and wait for another round.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby agentcom on Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:23 am

chapcrap wrote:
agentcom wrote:Looking at your Dice Battle Outcomes, you do have some bad luck. But it's nothing outside of normal variation for such a small sample size. What is likely compounding your bad luck (and your frustration) is your bad play. I don't think that I've ever been able to tell that someone is a bad player just by looking at their dice stats until yours.

You need to post your analysis here!!


Fine .... Here's something that I shared with some others. This is post 1 of 2:

agentcom wrote:So, I came across this interesting post in the Strategy section:

Subject: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Balch wrote:I've played a little over a dozen games, and these are common, if not expected results:

-My 7 attacking 1, lose all 6 men.
-Their 10 attacking my 10, they lose 0 men and capture.
-Their 25 attacking my 15, they lose 1 man and capture.
-It takes 5 cards for me to get a set, every set, every game.
-I have a seen a lone defender roll a 6 5 times in a row.

This is the majority of the game, every game. What the f*ck kind of acid high were you on when you wrote this programming?


OK, so maybe another guy bitching about his dice isn't really that interesting, but after some back and forth between him and some other commenters, I ended up responding with this:

Looking at your dice stats, you do have some bad luck. But it's nothing outside of normal variation for such a small sample size. What is likely compounding your bad luck (and your frustration) is your bad play. I don't think that I've ever been able to tell that someone is a bad player just by looking at their dice stats until yours.


I'll post the his overall dice stats below and see if you can tell why I said that. The answer will be in the next post.

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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby agentcom on Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:24 am

... And post 2 of 2

agentcom wrote:So, how did I know that Balch was a bad player looking at his dice stats? Well, the key is in the bottom half of that image--the Battle Outcomes stats. (Sidenote: the Dice Outcomes stats are useless. You should really never be looking at them. It doesn't matter what you roll, it matters whether that is higher than what the opponent rolls.)

First, a little refresher on how the dice work in relation to these statistics. a 3v2 roll is going to be the most common. That's when you have a 4-stack or bigger and you're rolling against a 2-stack or bigger. You know that every time one of these types of rolls happens, 2 troops are going to die. You don't know whether they will be your opponent's or yours, but you do know that 2 troops will be taken off the board. So we can figure out how many total rolls a player has made by totaling up his kills and losses and dividing it by 2. The same can be done for the rest, but if any player is only rolling 1, then the division is unnecessary.

Now, you don't have any control over what kinds of decisions that your opponent is making, so let's forget about the second row of the second table, which is the defensive stats. And let's not worry about the total either. Only look at the first row of the second table: the Assault row. I'm sure a lot of you figured out instantly where I was going with this when I posted the table. This guy is making a seemingly large number of high-risk attacks, by which I mean attacks where he has less than a 4-stack and therefore less than 3 dice to roll. The numbers seemed very high to me, so that's when I made my comment in the forum.

But then I got to thinking, what is a "good" distribution of attacks? So, I took a somewhat random sample of the following players (their scoreboard ranks are in parentheses):

Kaskavel (1); 100mates (2); Chariot of Fire (20); Jippd (26); Pirlo (190); Agentcom (191)

I then compared the results to balch who was the complainer in previous post.

I've presented the results in graphic form below. There are some interesting differences that get obscured by the scale, but you can get the big picture by looking at it.

Image

Notice that there are some differences among the good players. CoF apparently really likes the 3v2 roll (more on this below). Jippd is the opposite and seems to seek out the 3v1 roll (which, remember, is rolling a stack of at least 4 against a single). But the biggest relative difference by far is in balch's chart. The disadvantageous rolls that barely even show up in the charts of the other players are clearly being depended on by this player. He is rolling less than a 4-stack a whopping 18.6% of the time that he clicks the "assault" button. The average for the other 7 players, by comparison, is between 5% and 6%. And you can see that it's hurting his game because he ends up with relatively fewer opportunities to roll 3 dice against the defender.

I mentioned that I'd come back to CoF and his high percentage of 3v2 rolls. I think this is reflective of lots of large-map, large-team, no spoils games. Instead of trying to take territs (like rolling 3 dice against 1 die in order to card), he is oftentimes looking to inflict the most damage. That is often done by creating lots of 4-stacks and trimming everything that you can rather than taking any territs. The other players' game choices also probably affect their stats.

I may come back to this at some point and look at a bigger sample or a sample more appropriate to players of team games, but I just thought I'd mention it here. And perhaps some of you may want to look at your dice stats. If you're making disadvantageous rolls more than 6 or 7% of the time, you are outside this range and might want to re-evaluate your strategy. And out of that amount, over half of those disadvantageous attempts should be 2 dice versus 1 die (i.e. an attack from a territ with 3 troops to a territ with 1 troop).
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby aad0906 on Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:41 am

Balch wrote:Just now, right this instant, rolling 3 dice 5 times in a row against two defenders, I lost 2 attackers 5 consecutive times .0214% odds.

I think what you meant to say is given the amount of scenarios that play out in any given day, it would actually be more statistically improbably for something rare not to happen. But this isn't one thing, it's every fucking game. That's not more likely, that's even less likely.


You know what the odds are of flopping a royal flush in a poker game (Omaha) is? 0.00923%. Does that mean it will never happen? No it doesn't because it happened against me last week. Wanna take it even further? What are the odds that on top of this statistical anomaly, I had a straightflush myself? Made my head spin but it still happened.

People always recall bad luck, they forget that sometimes they get very lucky too.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby sempaispellcheck on Thu Nov 22, 2012 11:59 am

Thanks for that, agentcom! Now I know why my score has fallen so far recently. :oops:
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby MoB Deadly on Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:17 pm

Agent, how long did it take to make that graph?
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Balch on Thu Nov 22, 2012 1:40 pm

You look at making desperate rolls as a cause, but it's the effect. I get steamrolled by rolls so hard I consistently get put into 'I need a miracle or I'm done' scenarios.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Balch on Thu Nov 22, 2012 2:00 pm

And regardless of playstyle, there's a lot of red, and even more negatives in that luck column, so thanks for posting that. With the exception of one, all the green is in the desperation columns that don't really matter anyways, because the game is over at that point. So thanks for support.

So yeah, in 3v2s, the most seen roll, when rolling offense my troops incur 47.13% of the deaths, but when it's my opponent rolling offense against me, they only incur 44.27% of the losses. A 3% swing is pretty big, not sure if you knew that.

And to the broski with his royal flush, being a hard poker player and everything: Cool story bro. Get a royal flush every night you play, and then we'll talk.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Extreme Ways on Thu Nov 22, 2012 2:40 pm

Balch wrote:And regardless of playstyle, there's a lot of red, and even more negatives in that luck column, so thanks for posting that. With the exception of one, all the green is in the desperation columns that don't really matter anyways, because the game is over at that point. So thanks for support.

So yeah, in 3v2s, the most seen roll, when rolling offense my troops incur 47.13% of the deaths, but when it's my opponent rolling offense against me, they only incur 44.27% of the losses. A 3% swing is pretty big, not sure if you knew that.

And to the broski with his royal flush, being a hard poker player and everything: Cool story bro. Get a royal flush every night you play, and then we'll talk.

whine whine. Agentcom is right. Admit it. Sometimes you need to do some 3v2's, but not nearly as much as you do.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby aad0906 on Thu Nov 22, 2012 3:10 pm

Balch wrote:And regardless of playstyle, there's a lot of red, and even more negatives in that luck column, so thanks for posting that. With the exception of one, all the green is in the desperation columns that don't really matter anyways, because the game is over at that point. So thanks for support.

So yeah, in 3v2s, the most seen roll, when rolling offense my troops incur 47.13% of the deaths, but when it's my opponent rolling offense against me, they only incur 44.27% of the losses. A 3% swing is pretty big, not sure if you knew that.

And to the broski with his royal flush, being a hard poker player and everything: Cool story bro. Get a royal flush every night you play, and then we'll talk.


dude, you only played 25 games on this site so far, anyone that paid attention at maths knows that 25 is too small of a population to draw any sound statistical conclusions from. And on the royal flush, unfortunately my opponent flopped it, not me.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby DoomYoshi on Thu Nov 22, 2012 6:33 pm

Why is 3v1 a disadvantageous roll? It has greater than 50% chance of success.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby DoomYoshi on Thu Nov 22, 2012 6:49 pm

Here are my stats:

3v2 60%
3v1 36%
2v2 0.2%
2v1 3%
1v2 0.1%
1v1 0.04%

I am most similar to Goranz, except he makes more 1v1s than I do. I guess he is playing more 1v1s than I am, since that is usually when I use those.
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