How can I avoid the game being rigged?

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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby agentcom on Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:24 am

... And post 2 of 2

agentcom wrote:So, how did I know that Balch was a bad player looking at his dice stats? Well, the key is in the bottom half of that image--the Battle Outcomes stats. (Sidenote: the Dice Outcomes stats are useless. You should really never be looking at them. It doesn't matter what you roll, it matters whether that is higher than what the opponent rolls.)

First, a little refresher on how the dice work in relation to these statistics. a 3v2 roll is going to be the most common. That's when you have a 4-stack or bigger and you're rolling against a 2-stack or bigger. You know that every time one of these types of rolls happens, 2 troops are going to die. You don't know whether they will be your opponent's or yours, but you do know that 2 troops will be taken off the board. So we can figure out how many total rolls a player has made by totaling up his kills and losses and dividing it by 2. The same can be done for the rest, but if any player is only rolling 1, then the division is unnecessary.

Now, you don't have any control over what kinds of decisions that your opponent is making, so let's forget about the second row of the second table, which is the defensive stats. And let's not worry about the total either. Only look at the first row of the second table: the Assault row. I'm sure a lot of you figured out instantly where I was going with this when I posted the table. This guy is making a seemingly large number of high-risk attacks, by which I mean attacks where he has less than a 4-stack and therefore less than 3 dice to roll. The numbers seemed very high to me, so that's when I made my comment in the forum.

But then I got to thinking, what is a "good" distribution of attacks? So, I took a somewhat random sample of the following players (their scoreboard ranks are in parentheses):

Kaskavel (1); 100mates (2); Chariot of Fire (20); Jippd (26); Pirlo (190); Agentcom (191)

I then compared the results to balch who was the complainer in previous post.

I've presented the results in graphic form below. There are some interesting differences that get obscured by the scale, but you can get the big picture by looking at it.

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Notice that there are some differences among the good players. CoF apparently really likes the 3v2 roll (more on this below). Jippd is the opposite and seems to seek out the 3v1 roll (which, remember, is rolling a stack of at least 4 against a single). But the biggest relative difference by far is in balch's chart. The disadvantageous rolls that barely even show up in the charts of the other players are clearly being depended on by this player. He is rolling less than a 4-stack a whopping 18.6% of the time that he clicks the "assault" button. The average for the other 7 players, by comparison, is between 5% and 6%. And you can see that it's hurting his game because he ends up with relatively fewer opportunities to roll 3 dice against the defender.

I mentioned that I'd come back to CoF and his high percentage of 3v2 rolls. I think this is reflective of lots of large-map, large-team, no spoils games. Instead of trying to take territs (like rolling 3 dice against 1 die in order to card), he is oftentimes looking to inflict the most damage. That is often done by creating lots of 4-stacks and trimming everything that you can rather than taking any territs. The other players' game choices also probably affect their stats.

I may come back to this at some point and look at a bigger sample or a sample more appropriate to players of team games, but I just thought I'd mention it here. And perhaps some of you may want to look at your dice stats. If you're making disadvantageous rolls more than 6 or 7% of the time, you are outside this range and might want to re-evaluate your strategy. And out of that amount, over half of those disadvantageous attempts should be 2 dice versus 1 die (i.e. an attack from a territ with 3 troops to a territ with 1 troop).
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby aad0906 on Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:41 am

Balch wrote:Just now, right this instant, rolling 3 dice 5 times in a row against two defenders, I lost 2 attackers 5 consecutive times .0214% odds.

I think what you meant to say is given the amount of scenarios that play out in any given day, it would actually be more statistically improbably for something rare not to happen. But this isn't one thing, it's every fucking game. That's not more likely, that's even less likely.


You know what the odds are of flopping a royal flush in a poker game (Omaha) is? 0.00923%. Does that mean it will never happen? No it doesn't because it happened against me last week. Wanna take it even further? What are the odds that on top of this statistical anomaly, I had a straightflush myself? Made my head spin but it still happened.

People always recall bad luck, they forget that sometimes they get very lucky too.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby sempaispellcheck on Thu Nov 22, 2012 11:59 am

Thanks for that, agentcom! Now I know why my score has fallen so far recently. :oops:
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby MoB Deadly on Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:17 pm

Agent, how long did it take to make that graph?
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Balch on Thu Nov 22, 2012 1:40 pm

You look at making desperate rolls as a cause, but it's the effect. I get steamrolled by rolls so hard I consistently get put into 'I need a miracle or I'm done' scenarios.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Balch on Thu Nov 22, 2012 2:00 pm

And regardless of playstyle, there's a lot of red, and even more negatives in that luck column, so thanks for posting that. With the exception of one, all the green is in the desperation columns that don't really matter anyways, because the game is over at that point. So thanks for support.

So yeah, in 3v2s, the most seen roll, when rolling offense my troops incur 47.13% of the deaths, but when it's my opponent rolling offense against me, they only incur 44.27% of the losses. A 3% swing is pretty big, not sure if you knew that.

And to the broski with his royal flush, being a hard poker player and everything: Cool story bro. Get a royal flush every night you play, and then we'll talk.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Extreme Ways on Thu Nov 22, 2012 2:40 pm

Balch wrote:And regardless of playstyle, there's a lot of red, and even more negatives in that luck column, so thanks for posting that. With the exception of one, all the green is in the desperation columns that don't really matter anyways, because the game is over at that point. So thanks for support.

So yeah, in 3v2s, the most seen roll, when rolling offense my troops incur 47.13% of the deaths, but when it's my opponent rolling offense against me, they only incur 44.27% of the losses. A 3% swing is pretty big, not sure if you knew that.

And to the broski with his royal flush, being a hard poker player and everything: Cool story bro. Get a royal flush every night you play, and then we'll talk.

whine whine. Agentcom is right. Admit it. Sometimes you need to do some 3v2's, but not nearly as much as you do.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby aad0906 on Thu Nov 22, 2012 3:10 pm

Balch wrote:And regardless of playstyle, there's a lot of red, and even more negatives in that luck column, so thanks for posting that. With the exception of one, all the green is in the desperation columns that don't really matter anyways, because the game is over at that point. So thanks for support.

So yeah, in 3v2s, the most seen roll, when rolling offense my troops incur 47.13% of the deaths, but when it's my opponent rolling offense against me, they only incur 44.27% of the losses. A 3% swing is pretty big, not sure if you knew that.

And to the broski with his royal flush, being a hard poker player and everything: Cool story bro. Get a royal flush every night you play, and then we'll talk.


dude, you only played 25 games on this site so far, anyone that paid attention at maths knows that 25 is too small of a population to draw any sound statistical conclusions from. And on the royal flush, unfortunately my opponent flopped it, not me.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby DoomYoshi on Thu Nov 22, 2012 6:33 pm

Why is 3v1 a disadvantageous roll? It has greater than 50% chance of success.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby DoomYoshi on Thu Nov 22, 2012 6:49 pm

Here are my stats:

3v2 60%
3v1 36%
2v2 0.2%
2v1 3%
1v2 0.1%
1v1 0.04%

I am most similar to Goranz, except he makes more 1v1s than I do. I guess he is playing more 1v1s than I am, since that is usually when I use those.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby agentcom on Thu Nov 22, 2012 8:35 pm

sempaispellcheck wrote:Thanks for that, agentcom! Now I know why my score has fallen so far recently. :oops:


np ;)

MoB Deadly wrote:Agent, how long did it take to make that graph?


I just made a spreadsheet that allows me to paste in the data from the whole row and it spits out the percentages. So, then it was just a matter of telling excel to make a chart out of the right columns and with the right labels. I could actually tell you pretty much exactly how long that project took because of the time stamps on the original posts (that I quoted above) ... brb ... Looks like it took me about 45 minutes to format the spreadsheet, make the chart and type all of that second post. But with the spreadsheet that I have now, I could add other players to it in maybe 30 seconds per player.

Balch wrote:You look at making desperate rolls as a cause, but it's the effect. I get steamrolled by rolls so hard I consistently get put into 'I need a miracle or I'm done' scenarios.


If I had to guess, I would say that you're going into desperation mode too soon rather than just playing it out. There's a time for desperation, sure, but it's not every time you get hit with a bit of bad luck.

DoomYoshi wrote:Why is 3v1 a disadvantageous roll? It has greater than 50% chance of success.


I thought this might come up ... I kind of lumped it in there. It's really halfway between. It's not the best situation (that would be a 4v1), but it's not bad. All other things being equal, you would prefer to wait on making that attack until you can drop a troop there, but sometimes you have to (say to bring the other player below 12). If I had to make a rule (based on this very limited sample), it would be that those rolls of 3v1 (2 dice v 1 die) should probably be around 3% and all the rest of the short rolls should add up to another 2 or 3%.

And your numbers look right to me, and I was thinking the same thing ... that it looks like Goranz.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Funkyterrance on Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:20 pm

With atmospheric noise anything is possible! ;)
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Balch on Fri Nov 23, 2012 5:35 am

Well, that'd be an inaccurate guess. I outplay most of my opponents until at some point, sometimes early, sometimes a little later, they just steamroll me, usually killing 10-20 troops while keeping their casualties under 2.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Bruceswar on Fri Nov 23, 2012 6:51 am

Attendance:
88% of turns taken <---- likely has something to do with your win / loss ratio.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby comic boy on Fri Nov 23, 2012 7:49 am

Balch wrote:Well, that'd be an inaccurate guess. I outplay most of my opponents until at some point, sometimes early, sometimes a little later, they just steamroll me, usually killing 10-20 troops while keeping their casualties under 2.


Since you started playing you have a net point gain , this suggests that you are ignoring the fact that the dice have also favoured you on many occasions. It would seem that the problem with you is arrogance rather than bad dice , get off your high horse and stop whining.
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