How can I avoid the game being rigged?

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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby SirSebstar on Fri Nov 23, 2012 8:08 am

People, may i please remind all that this is Q&A and not some recurrance of flamewars. Please be more patient and a little nicer to new players.

Beltch, there is a lot of info posted in these 2 pages that should help you with your game. Everybody gets the same chance on dice though, so sometimes you have a luck streak or an unlucky streak. Enevitably, you too wil the a lucky streak. How you can make the most of it, is up to you
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby puppydog85 on Fri Nov 23, 2012 8:13 am

Great chart! That's an idea that I have never thought of before.

It should be useful for me. But mine are a bit off, in that when its a big map and i have clearly lost I attack until I have only 1s one the board.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby DoomYoshi on Fri Nov 23, 2012 11:19 am

SirSebstar wrote:People, may i please remind all that this is Q&A and not some recurrance of flamewars. Please be more patient and a little nicer to new players.

Beltch, there is a lot of info posted in these 2 pages that should help you with your game. Everybody gets the same chance on dice though, so sometimes you have a luck streak or an unlucky streak. Enevitably, you too wil the a lucky streak. How you can make the most of it, is up to you


LMAO!!! Subversive comedy, I love it.

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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby greenoaks on Fri Nov 23, 2012 6:27 pm

i've always suspected my poor rank was a reflection of my skill, not the dice.

heres hoping agentcom doesn't bitchslap me down to cook with some graphs. [-o<
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby generalhead on Sat Nov 24, 2012 5:27 pm

greenoaks wrote:i've always suspected my poor rank was a reflection of my skill, not the dice.
heres hoping agentcom doesn't bitchslap me down to cook with some graphs. [-o<

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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby kennys777 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 10:31 am

generalhead wrote:Wouldn't it be the easiest to say that every ones dice draws come from the same place so how could it be unfair. Maybe if you could explain how the dice draws are unfair for one player and not for another when they pull from the same place. every one gets bad dice and every one gets good dice. To become a better player you have to play the dice. If you roll and lose two troops and they lose non if might be smart to wait for another round to attack again. Some players will roll lose two, roll lose two, roll lose two. I recommend if you roll and lose two the first roll stop and wait for another round.


I was thinking about this, now isn't the dice generator counted by player? Does the player A rolling right now draw from the same generator sequence as player B rolling right after them? I was curious to know if the generator is counting overall for CC? Where are those stats? Since I look at my dice stats, and they are within normal range, I am curious if my player name is associated with a sequence, or is it CC as a whole that runs off the random generating sequence?
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby sempaispellcheck on Mon Nov 26, 2012 10:36 am

I don't know that there is a sequence. I could be wrong, but I always thought the numbers were determined when you rolled - 3, 4, or 5 at a time, depending on how many dice were rolled.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby tkr4lf on Mon Nov 26, 2012 10:53 am

I remember reading somewhere before where I think Andy posted that CC pulls a list of 50,000 or so numbers (1-6, obviously) at a time, and it cycles through that list over and over until they get another list, I guess every hour or something like that. Keep in mind I remember reading this quite a while ago, so I could be completely wrong, but I think that's how he explained it.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby kennys777 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 10:57 am

tkr4lf wrote:I remember reading somewhere before where I think Andy posted that CC pulls a list of 50,000 or so numbers (1-6, obviously) at a time, and it cycles through that list over and over until they get another list, I guess every hour or something like that. Keep in mind I remember reading this quite a while ago, so I could be completely wrong, but I think that's how he explained it.



Yeah, I have looked into the dice subject off and on over the years, so I remember seeing a sequence, or as you said pulling a lot of numbers, running them through, etc. etc.

It just seems that this is also flawed though, since you are only pulling a specific number. It is like counting cards at blackjack, where as you could watch stats and determine when is the best time to roll. yes? I know it is impossible to see the numbers but you could check dice stats on people, or make a program to do it, thus showing you how the dice are rolling in the past 25 attacks/battles, if you were able to load all the players into a program like that, you would be able to determine when it is best to take your turns??? No?

This theory is just based on this quote above, not saying it is what is happening.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby kennys777 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 11:01 am

For the record, I don't write code so I am not sure if this type of program is even possible...I can barely remember to put in the slash to make a strike in my threads...just kidding I remember!
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby SirSebstar on Mon Nov 26, 2012 11:33 am

About the dice

22. How does the dice work?

We have a series of 50,000 true random numbers from Random.org. Each time the game engine processes an assault or auto-assault, it select a random spot in the series to read from using a pseudo-random computer function. Each time the game engine rolls the dice, the next number is read in sequence from the series (e.g. in a 3v1 attack 4 numbers are read sequentially). The series of 50,000 true random numbers from Random.org is replaced every hour. As of June 2010 we process 1,000,000 assaults per day.
23. Seriously, how could I possibly lose X troops while assaulting a region that only had Y? Are the dice broken?

The dice on this site are randomized by Random.org and by being an active member of Conquer Club you experience a very large number of dice rolls so it is natural to occasionally get your ass kicked. It is human nature to remember the losses more than the wins.
24. Why is the amount of data on my dice stats more/less than I expect?

First of all, we only started recording dice stats as of May 2011 so battles before that date are not included in the data. We only store the last 100 battles per player over all opponents as "recent" stats, so if you filter recent stats by opponent over 25 battles there there might not be 25 "recent" battles with that specific opponent and less data will appear than expected. Also, auto-assaults are considered a single battle so recent stats may contain more data than expected if there were auto-assaults.
25. How is luck calculated on my dice stats?

For dice distribution, luck is the actual average roll over the expected average roll (i.e. 3.5). Luck can range from -100% for an average roll of 1.00 to +100% for an average roll of 6.00.

For battle outcomes, luck is based on the ratio of kills over losses. For each type of battle (e.g. 3 vs 2, 1 vs 1, etc.) we know the expected ratio of kills over losses for both assault and defend based on the table below.
3 vs 2 3 vs 1 2 vs 2 2 vs 1 1 vs 2 1 vs 1
Assault 54.0% 66.0% 39.0% 57.9% 25.5% 41.7%
Defend 46.0% 34.0% 61.0% 42.1% 74.5% 58.3%

Luck is how many percentage points the actual ratio is above or below the expected ratio. To calculate total luck (i.e. assault + defend) we take a weighted average of ratios based on the amounts of assult battles and defend battles.

Red and green are used to emphasize negative and positive luck, respectively.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby kennys777 on Mon Nov 26, 2012 11:46 am

SirSebstar wrote:About the dice

22. How does the dice work?

We have a series of 50,000 true random numbers from Random.org. Each time the game engine processes an assault or auto-assault, it select a random spot in the series to read from using a pseudo-random computer function. Each time the game engine rolls the dice, the next number is read in sequence from the series (e.g. in a 3v1 attack 4 numbers are read sequentially). The series of 50,000 true random numbers from Random.org is replaced every hour. As of June 2010 we process 1,000,000 assaults per day.


So then it is possible that when a player rolls his sequence could be drawn from the exact same spot in the sequence as he drew from the previous roll? I am sure the odds on that are very high, but it is still possible?

Also, I didn't quote it here, but you said auto-assaults are only counted as 1 battle? Does that change or configure the overall dice stats of a player? In other words, if a player only auto-assaults, is his numbers going to be more closely aligned to center versus a player who only single assaults every attack (in the short term)? Obviously in the long-term, it will average out regardless of the method.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby Metsfanmax on Mon Nov 26, 2012 12:56 pm

kennys777 wrote:So then it is possible that when a player rolls his sequence could be drawn from the exact same spot in the sequence as he drew from the previous roll? I am sure the odds on that are very high, but it is still possible?


Yes, it is possible. I wouldn't bet on it, though. And even if that happens, that does not impugn the randomness of the process.

However, writing a code to take advantage of this fact would be nigh on impossible. Since each assault starts at a place on the list that is picked by the PRNG, you'd have to know how what PRNG it is and how to crack it, and also somehow know exactly how many die rolls are occurring on CC instantaneously. I'm not sure it would even be possible to collect the data in a fast enough manner to keep up with the die rolls that are actively happening.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby generalhead on Mon Nov 26, 2012 9:52 pm

kennys777 wrote:
SirSebstar wrote:About the dice

22. How does the dice work?

We have a series of 50,000 true random numbers from Random.org. Each time the game engine processes an assault or auto-assault, it select a random spot in the series to read from using a pseudo-random computer function. Each time the game engine rolls the dice, the next number is read in sequence from the series (e.g. in a 3v1 attack 4 numbers are read sequentially). The series of 50,000 true random numbers from Random.org is replaced every hour. As of June 2010 we process 1,000,000 assaults per day.


So then it is possible that when a player rolls his sequence could be drawn from the exact same spot in the sequence as he drew from the previous roll? I am sure the odds on that are very high, but it is still possible?

Also, I didn't quote it here, but you said auto-assaults are only counted as 1 battle? Does that change or configure the overall dice stats of a player? In other words, if a player only auto-assaults, is his numbers going to be more closely aligned to center versus a player who only single assaults every attack (in the short term)? Obviously in the long-term, it will average out regardless of the method.


even if this was true it would be true for both players so it would still be even play.

I don't think it would be possible to count the card (dice) either because the number draw would be random every time.
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Re: How can I avoid the game being rigged as fucked?

Postby DoomYoshi on Mon Nov 26, 2012 10:20 pm

It's actually not possible. Simple math will prove this.

Every hour 50 000 numbers are drawn. This means 1.2 million numbers are drawn. CC processes only 1 million attacks a day. This means that not all the numbers are gone through. If not all the numbers go through, it will never come back around.

Now, we of course realize that there are peak times of usage that the numbers might go around. However, I highly doubt they will go around more than twice in any hour period. Therefore, you won't be able to take advantage of this unless you start attacking right at the beginning of the new 50 000 and it is also the busiest time of day.

Of course, cc could just start taking 100 000 numbers if anyone did this to get an advanatage on one die roll every 24 hours.

Edit: yea, I derped and forgot that every assault can use 4 different numbers. However, it still takes a while for the numbers to cycle around and you couldnt get more than a few guaranteed rolls every hour or so.
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