Dealing with bad dices

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Dealing with bad dices

Postby pierluc on Thu Jan 24, 2013 10:06 am

Hi!

I've noticed that (I don't know if that's true or if it's just me) there's some patterns with the dices. Most of the times, you'll get medium results (i.e. 50% wins / 50% losses). You can also get a bad sequence or a good one. Those two sequences always seems to start with the same pattern. If you have a bad sequence, then for the first attack, you'll lose 2 troops. For the second attack, you'll lose 2 troops again.

When I'm getting this pattern, I just assume that I'm getting a bad sequence and that if I continue this attack, I'll just lose most of my troops.
So my strategy is to stop this attack so I can break this pattern, attack an other territory if I can, and then restart the first attack and hope to get a different pattern.

Is this a good strategy or it's just useless? :-s

How do you deal with bad dices / good dices?

Thanks! :)
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Re: Dealing with bad dices

Postby Viceroy63 on Thu Jan 24, 2013 1:01 pm

That is precisely why the SoC Manuel suggest that you cease your assault if you lose 2 troops.

"Basic Principles
Conserve your troops. Escalating games are about spoils and troops, and the relationship between them. You do not want to be in a position of having lots of spoils, but few troops; this will make you a target.
...
Take easy spoils. Attack only if you have at least 4 against 1. This gives you the greatest odds of winning. As noted above, don't spend too much for a small reward; usually you will only roll twice per turn. If you don't win in those two rolls, end attacks. It is not worth weakening yourself in the early game to gain spoils."
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I say that if you get a bad start then quit while your ahead. It's called a "Successful Retreat" in military terms and there is no shame in that.

"He who fights and runs away
lives to fight another day."
:lol:

And you are absolutely right in that it could be a bad sequence. But a bad sequence is really a long chain of bad numbers before they average out into favorable numbers. Sometimes however the change does not occur in the same round even if you change your attack vector. But eventually it all, Good and Bad, it all averages out.

I guess the important thing is not to waste the favorable numbers when you have have them and to simply retreat when you do have the bad numbers. A lot of this also depends on whether or not you need to conquer a particular region for what ever the reason. If it is important then continue to roll and find out the hard way where that chain of bad numbers end and the favorable one's begin.

BTW: The thing with the favorable and unfavorable numbers happen a lot in casino crap tables. Those who see the patterns quit while they are ahead if the numbers are bad and they continue on when the numbers are good. Correct judgement on when the numbers turn from one way to the other also makes for a successful gambler.
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Re: Dealing with bad dices

Postby dhallmeyer on Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:22 pm

Viceroy is right. The dice will even out over time, and there are many threads in the general forum about it.

Consistent play with our strategies over time will bring your score up. Premium is the drug of choice.
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Re: Dealing with bad dices

Postby pierluc on Thu Jan 24, 2013 3:51 pm

Thanks!
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Re: Dealing with bad dices

Postby blaaargh on Tue Feb 05, 2013 2:56 am

Viceroy63 wrote:BTW: The thing with the favorable and unfavorable numbers happen a lot in casino crap tables. Those who see the patterns quit while they are ahead if the numbers are bad and they continue on when the numbers are good. Correct judgement on when the numbers turn from one way to the other also makes for a successful gambler.


Ah, the scientific approach to gambling. Glad to see it's not confined to casino games.
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Re: Dealing with bad dices

Postby Viceroy63 on Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:49 am

Should the truth be known? No Casino would be in business if there was not some science behind it. Every game is set up so as to favor the house odds of success against the average bets. But even so those "Professional" gamblers know exactly how to beat the odds and that is why they get banned from Casino's. That is why there is a sign in most businesses, including the gambling industry that simply states, "Management Reserve's the Right to refuse services to...."


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Re: Dealing with bad dices

Postby shadistic on Wed Feb 06, 2013 12:26 am

Any pattern you see in the dice is all in your head.
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Re: Dealing with bad dices

Postby Viceroy63 on Wed Feb 06, 2013 1:21 am

shadistic wrote:Any pattern you see in the dice is all in your head.


Yes, "Pattern" is perhaps, a bad use of words to be exact. There are no patterns and you are right about that. But there are odds and probabilities. The odds and probabilities of a sequence of bad rolls against you, and the odds and probabilities of a sequence of favorable rolls that work to your advantage. This is what I mean by the use of the word "Pattern."

At any rate; if I am attacking a region that has 5 troops on it with my stack of 12 troops and I lose the first 3 rolls in a row? That would be a lost of 6 troops or 50% Loss of troops leaving me with only 6 troops vs. 5 troops. What would be the odds of 6 troops overcoming 5 troops?

Or even if I only lose 2 rolls in a row and have 8 troops vs. 5 troops, What would be the odds of me overcoming those 5 troops with just 8 troops? Not very good odds at all. Less then 50% chance of success, I would say. Those are the "Patterns" of success and failure to which I am referring to in my original comment.

I might add that if you can lose 3 or more rolls in a row, then you can also win 3 or more rolls in a row. This is not unheard of and even has a name. It's called a winning streak or a losing streak. And it does happen more often then people are actually aware of by percentages of play.

There are also no patterns in Casino games of chance either but there are Card counters and Calculators which are prohibited in Casino's everywhere, for a REASON! Because there is a science of math behind it all. The only game that may not involve chance is horse racing as the "big horses" determine that. The "big horses" and the bets placed. Why do you suppose that they provide one with so much statistics on the horse and the rider? And perhaps even boxing. At least once upon a time it was but who's to say that the "big horsy" still don't determine that as well? Only more discreetly now than before.
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Re: Dealing with bad dices

Postby Shannon Apple on Tue Feb 19, 2013 1:14 pm

I've had it happen where I have lost many many 1 v 1 games in a row because a) I did not get to start any of them and b) my dice was insanely bad. Having said that, I've had times when it went in my favour. I think the worst possible type of game for this is 1v1 because when it happens, there's a very slim chance of coming back from it. You can learn a strategy for it in the multiplayer games and not let yourself get below a certain limit per round. I've learned a lot just from reading the topics in here about different situations.

In multiplayer escalating games, you can just quit while you're ahead and wait for the next round like you're saying. But in 1v1, 9 times out of 10, you're 100% screwed. lol.
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Re: Dealing with bad dices

Postby Viceroy63 on Tue Feb 19, 2013 2:19 pm

Also; When you think about it, good sequences or bad sequences, they have a tendency to be this way because if they were not in any sequences then they would be more predictable. Imagine this as a "Thought Experiment"

You have a 50/50 chance of winning and losing so half your games/rolls you should win and the other half you should lose. Especially in a 1vs.1 situation type game. So if you won one game/roll and then lost the next and then won the following and then lost the game/roll after that one, then where would the action and adventure and the calculations be at? You would know that the next game would be won or lost pending on your last game or roll of the dice. But.....

If it happens in short and long sequences then you would not be able to tell and/or know when to quit or continue on. You could have a very long sequence of Good dice and decide to quit early, losing out on the rest of the favorable rolls or vice versa? So that these things happen in the form of long and short sequences or patterns is not really surprising to me. It would be surprising if it were Win, Lose, Win, Lose, Win, Lose, Win, Lose...

Can you cheat destiny? I don't think so because everything, like water, has to even out eventually. But perhaps, we can avoid it long enough so that it skips over us (for a while) and goes to the next one in line, like this movie I saw once where Death could be fooled. But eventually in the end, Death wins anyway. LOL.

But they bought themselves an extra day, week or year. :lol:

Maybe that is the real game after all, trying to cheat fate for as long as we can?
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Re: Dealing with bad dices

Postby Koganosi on Wed Feb 20, 2013 11:22 am

A month ago or something, I played a decent amount of 1v1 games. I managed not to get the first turn 13 times in a row. What are the odds you say?

1/2^13 = 1/8192 = 0.000122.... etc. So in a 13 game sequence of 8192 times it happens once. Kinda rare isnt it.

Also after getting the first turn finally. A trench doodle game. I came to the point my opponent had 1 troop left vs my 15 ish. He managed to win, my dices didnt fair and I didnt had a bonus in that game yet, caus we were alwasy fighting and it was a waste to take down any neutrals.

So luck, it happens it comes and goes by. No luck same story, and yes sometimes it gets you pissed off losing 20v10 for a sweep and picking up 200 points if you would have won it. Jeah stuff happens.

Morale of the story, sit through!

Point 2 youll never notice pretty much if you win large numbers, youll only remember the moments you lose badly!

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Re: Dealing with bad dices

Postby Viceroy63 on Wed Feb 20, 2013 5:22 pm

I do remember my good luck and even look forward to it. I continually assault stacks of 9, 10 and even 11 with the right Click (Auto-Assault) with just a simple stack of 4 because it does happen so often.

I mean percentage wise not so much. perhaps less then 1% of the assaults but often enough that I actually look forward to it. LOL. There is nothing like when a stack of 4 kills a stack of 11.

Most people go on the defensive when face with large stacks like that. Why even attack when for the most part it's likely to leave you at a disadvantage or weakened position. But I see that as part of completing my percentages. And I just never know when they will fall in my favor.

The attacker has the advantage with 3vs2 dice, so the more 3vs2's that you do (attacks), the better it works out for you in the long run when it all levels out anyways only with the 54% winning odds in your favor and you manage to cheat death when you least expect it. =)
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Re: Dealing with bad dices

Postby comic boy on Wed Feb 20, 2013 6:55 pm

As this is a training thread I feel I should point out that it is impossible to deal with any kind of dices because they do not exist , there are of course ways of dealing with bad dice :D
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Re: Dealing with bad dices

Postby Koganosi on Thu Feb 21, 2013 10:33 am

comic boy wrote:As this is a training thread I feel I should point out that it is impossible to deal with any kind of dices because they do not exist , there are of course ways of dealing with bad dice :D


1. Become a Mod

2. Sacrifice a chicken

3. There was another I forgot.

Right? ;)

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Re: Dealing with bad dices

Postby macbone on Fri Feb 22, 2013 1:02 am

The dice even out over time. True randomness is streaky.

Just yesterday I was playing in a game on CC, and one of my teammates said he was having bad dice and thought he should stop. But he went ahead and rolled his 4v3 and 5v1 and ended up taking the 3 with no losses and the 1 with 2 losses.

Professional gamblers succeed because they can count cards, they remember what's been dealt and what's to come. That's why casinos forbid card counting and use new decks for each hand of blackjack.

Of course there's skill involved in games with randomness, like poker and Conquer Club. But luck plays a factor, too.
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Re: Dealing with bad dice

Postby kuma32478 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 1:41 pm

comic boy wrote:As this is a training thread I feel I should point out that it is impossible to deal with any kind of dices because they do not exist , there are of course ways of dealing with bad dice :D


I wondered how long it would take for someone to point that out.
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Re: Dealing with bad dices

Postby Viceroy63 on Fri Feb 22, 2013 2:42 pm

Good point! This may be just a training thread but it's our SoC training thread. And if anything is more conducive to training and learning than communication then I would like to hear about it. Even if I have to read about other stuff as well in the process.

So for my part I believe that discussions should be encouraged even if they degrade some. If the topic degrades too much there are always the Mods who can lock up the thread. In fact the SoC Report will simply be a thread like everything else here and probably should be and probably will be an open thread for all to Follow and comment on.

We're getting close to that day now by the way. About one more week or so, and the first SoC Report will be posted in the forums and the link to the thread sent out to all the SoC Members. Just in case anyone is wondering.
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