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[Official] Holiday Mafia - Game Over!

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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby anamainiacks on Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:40 pm

betiko pretty much sums up my thoughts with this quote:
betiko wrote:here is one: I received a gift from witt last night. he didn't get roleblocked. So if they didn't NK, they didn't roleblock gustaf, witt or edoc, they didn't steal gifts (as far as we know) what was mafia up to last night????????

One of the main reasons I'm taken by betiko's suggestion so far, is because the scum had 3 people that it would've been great to roleblock - Gustaf, Mets, Witt - if we assume that everyone's claims are true (which some aren't, obviously). Yet, betiko seems to have been roleblocked. To me, that's a pretty stupid risk for the scum to take. Even if they did want to take the chance of their kill target (according to Mets, being Gustaf) being protected, why didn't they roleblock Witt? Unless of course, betiko's pulling the wool over our eyes and didn't actually get roleblocked... But then where was the other scum action?

There is the very strong possibility that the scum are using this point for a long-term way to go under the town's scum radar. I mean, 6-1-2 doesn't present very high odds, and if one of them were already under suspicion, this would be a great way - with a huge risk that might pay off - to survive the next few lynches.

I'm not sure where I stand on the Mets/betiko debate - I was more inclined to think of betiko as scum prior to Night 4, but the outcome of it all has me very confused. To me, if betiko was indeed roleblocked, someone was very eager to prevent betiko from proving his town allegiance, and Mets comes up higher on my scumdar.



Another thing that has come up, is IB's claim of having 2 gifts and now being able to use Christmas magic. While reading through, my initial thoughts were that he, as scum, might be taking advantage of the fact that Witt was keeping quiet to claim that he got 2 gifts last night (mine and Witt's). But since Witt has confirmed this, it does leave the very tempting possibility of Christmas magic coming into play. After all, if IB is scum, he wouldn't be a gift doubler, and wouldn't be able to use his gift for Christmas magic, and probably not an action either, with all the actions the scum have already performed. So if IB doesn't use any Christmas magic tonight for the town, we can also know for sure he's scum. So... that might be a possible risk for us to take?
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby Metsfanmax on Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:52 pm

Honestly, I'm not even convinced that the mafia have a roleblocker. Isn't it at least plausible that their past roleblocks have come from gifts rather than a particular role?

Also, question for PCM: if someone attempts to do something impossible with their christmas magic (like switch the faction of someone who is already in the target faction) will you let us know so we can try again, or is the move wasted?
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby anamainiacks on Fri Mar 08, 2013 1:57 pm

Metsfanmax wrote:Honestly, I'm not even convinced that the mafia have a roleblocker. Isn't it at least plausible that their past roleblocks have come from gifts rather than a particular role?

That too is possible... How many confirmed roleblocks do we have so far? Only Gustaf's on N2 and N3? If scum took turns to use a one-shot action, that'd only require 4 gifts...
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby betiko on Fri Mar 08, 2013 2:17 pm

anamainiacks wrote:
Metsfanmax wrote:Honestly, I'm not even convinced that the mafia have a roleblocker. Isn't it at least plausible that their past roleblocks have come from gifts rather than a particular role?

That too is possible... How many confirmed roleblocks do we have so far? Only Gustaf's on N2 and N3? If scum took turns to use a one-shot action, that'd only require 4 gifts...


if gustaf was roleblocked N2, it means that either someone received 2 gifts on night 1, either it's IB who is a gift doubler, but he would need to be both gift doubler and gift stealer, that would be quite unballanced. And no, it would require 5 gifts total as the second trade is 3, not 2 for a gven person (assuming the gift stealer).
I think this is highly unlikely and I think the mafia roleblocks are a natural role, the gift stealing as well. i think that it's much more likely that mafia has been stealing gifts and saving for christmas magic, and I think that it's very likely that they managed to reach at least 4 last night AND that they prefered to use the christmas magic rather than performing a NK.
I don't think that roleblocking me is a bad play at all. Otherwise gustaf would've received my gift along with the message and I would be cleared, at least from his perspective. Mafia didn't know who i would be sending the gift to, so the only safe thing keeping me alive to be still here as a suspect is to roleblock me.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby MoB Deadly on Fri Mar 08, 2013 2:42 pm

I was roleblocked Night 1. There is definitely a mafia roleblocker.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby MoB Deadly on Fri Mar 08, 2013 2:49 pm

betiko wrote: i think that it's much more likely that mafia has been stealing gifts and saving for christmas magic

This is intriguing, but seriously, we can't diverge off the path just for the chance of that happening.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby betiko on Fri Mar 08, 2013 3:49 pm

MoB Deadly wrote:I was roleblocked Night 1. There is definitely a mafia roleblocker.


please tell us more about this. you said something about dropped cards or something, you didn't explain more. Are you sure it's just that you didn't find one of your "childs" on night 1? If I get lynched you will see that i've been telling the truth about this and it doesn't make much sense, I don't see how my gift didn't reach you.

Also, would be nice to confront your roleblock message with the ones gustaf received. I never received any roleblock message.

last thing mob, you said you had interesting information to reveal early this day and you still haven't done it.

By the way, if IB can revive someone, NOS would be nice cause he could reveal that he received my gifts n2 & 3.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby Iron Butterfly on Fri Mar 08, 2013 6:16 pm

betiko wrote:
MoB Deadly wrote:I was roleblocked Night 1. There is definitely a mafia roleblocker.


please tell us more about this. you said something about dropped cards or something, you didn't explain more. Are you sure it's just that you didn't find one of your "childs" on night 1? If I get lynched you will see that i've been telling the truth about this and it doesn't make much sense, I don't see how my gift didn't reach you.

Also, would be nice to confront your roleblock message with the ones gustaf received. I never received any roleblock message.

last thing mob, you said you had interesting information to reveal early this day and you still haven't done it.

By the way, if IB can revive someone, NOS would be nice cause he could reveal that he received my gifts n2 & 3.


I do not understand why Mob would withhold info beneficial to town. I would be interested in comparing role block messages as well.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby pancakemix on Sat Mar 09, 2013 12:43 am

Metsfanmax wrote:Also, question for PCM: if someone attempts to do something impossible with their christmas magic (like switch the faction of someone who is already in the target faction) will you let us know so we can try again, or is the move wasted?


Assuming we're talking about Christmas Magic and not a gift exchange, in a situation where the error relied on your ignorance of the other party's situation (such as faction alignment), I'd have to consider that action spent.

For instance, if you choose to make Commander9 a vanilla townie but he's already a vanilla townie, your action is gone and you get no second chances.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby rishaed on Sat Mar 09, 2013 1:43 am

I would like a vote count.
I don't want this thread dying so I'm going to do a small recap.
A. Speed lynching: I feel that even if we decide on a person we should definitely compile our info for the day. Overall we need to use the day to its fullest.
B. Betiko/Mets: this debate has gone on for a few days, and I feel like between the two of the there is a scum.
C. My Take: I'm leaning slightly more Mets than Betiko here. The scum didn't seem to do anything last night, if Mets is scum it's a perfect way to "confirm" his claim. I am betting scum did something to skew Gustafs results last night, they seemed to have blocked him every other night and y wouldn't they block the doc if they were going to NK him, it makes no sense.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby rishaed on Sat Mar 09, 2013 1:49 am

rishaed wrote:I would like a vote count.
I don't want this thread dying so I'm going to do a small recap.
A. Speed lynching: I feel that even if we decide on a person we should definitely compile our info for the day. Overall we need to use the day to its fullest.
B. Betiko/Mets: this debate has gone on for a few days, and I feel like between the two of the there is a scum.
C. My Take: I'm leaning slightly more Mets than Betiko here. The scum didn't seem to do anything last night, if Mets is scum it's a perfect way to "confirm" his claim. I am betting scum did something to skew Gustafs results last night, they seemed to have blocked him every other night and y wouldn't they block the doc if they were going to NK him, it makes no sense.

Guess I forgot to say, if you don't buy my claim you are more than welcome to try and vig me, it will confirm that I am who I say I am.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby betiko on Sat Mar 09, 2013 6:15 am

pancakemix wrote:
Metsfanmax wrote:Also, question for PCM: if someone attempts to do something impossible with their christmas magic (like switch the faction of someone who is already in the target faction) will you let us know so we can try again, or is the move wasted?


Assuming we're talking about Christmas Magic and not a gift exchange, in a situation where the error relied on your ignorance of the other party's situation (such as faction alignment), I'd have to consider that action spent.

For instance, if you choose to make Commander9 a vanilla townie but he's already a vanilla townie, your action is gone and you get no second chances.

PCM has just confirmed that you can change a player s faction there. I bet you we have 3 scums again so 5-1-3 and this could be lylo right now. Gustaf has turned scum.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby betiko on Sat Mar 09, 2013 7:01 am

I'd lynch mets or gustaf, preferably mets because he is either roleblocker or gift stealer. please guys, trut me on that one!
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby pancakemix on Sat Mar 09, 2013 10:10 am

Vote Count

IB - 4 (Gustaf, MoB, Rish, Mets)
Mets - 1 (betiko)
MoB - 1 (IB)

9 alive 5 to lynch. We'll put the deadline at 1 week from today (March 16).
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby betiko on Sat Mar 09, 2013 10:38 am

pancakemix wrote:Vote Count

IB - 4 (Gustaf, MoB, Rish, Mets)
Mets - 1 (betiko)
MoB - 1 (IB)

9 alive 5 to lynch. We'll put the deadline at 1 week from today (March 16).


interesting. Remember this: we are at lylo most probably with a mafia that recruited gustaf. If mafia lynches a town right now they've won (unless we get christmas magic to revive a town, and that is only IB who can get it) as they will probably perform their kill easy tonight, so 3-1-3 tomorrow morning.
IB is 1 vote away from the lynch, so all mafia are on IB right now, just waiting to convince 1 town to win the game. Mafia are mets, rishaed and gustaf, I'm now convinced.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby betiko on Sat Mar 09, 2013 10:42 am

we need edoc, witt, IB and ani in here!!!
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby MoB Deadly on Sat Mar 09, 2013 10:43 am

MoB Deadly wrote:I was roleblocked Night 1. There is definitely a mafia roleblocker.


please tell us more about this. you said something about dropped cards or something, you didn't explain more. Are you sure it's just that you didn't find one of your "childs" on night 1? If I get lynched you will see that i've been telling the truth about this and it doesn't make much sense, I don't see how my gift didn't reach you.

Also, would be nice to confront your roleblock message with the ones gustaf received. I never received any roleblock message.[/quote]

Yes, forget the actual PM, (I didn't save it) but it said I slipped on a deck of cards or something of the sort. Yeah I was hoping Gustaf would confirm that for me by now.


betiko wrote:last thing mob, you said you had interesting information to reveal early this day and you still haven't done it.

Dont worry about it, the person that needs to know that information already knows. It is on a need to know basis.


This is what we get for letting betiko and IB just talk and talk and talk. Now he has us second guessing ourselves.

Why in the world would we go against a cop investigation. That is outrageous and I am not moving my vote for anything. We have no reason to believe Gustaf's result is insane. wrong, framed, converted, or any of the above. People could make different hypotheses all day long.

IB was on my scum list since the end of Day 3, I tried to bring it up on Day 4 but it got skipped over so I let it go. Here IB is again with a guilty result. We have no reason not to jump on this.


betiko wrote:we need edoc, witt, IB and ani in here!!!
[quote="betiko"]
This is true. Except IB has been here.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby MoB Deadly on Sat Mar 09, 2013 10:45 am

And yes I am sure it is not related to me finding my sons. I checked someone random Night 1, because both Misers did not claim until Day 2
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby betiko on Sat Mar 09, 2013 10:46 am

rishaed wrote:
rishaed wrote:I would like a vote count.
I don't want this thread dying so I'm going to do a small recap.
A. Speed lynching: I feel that even if we decide on a person we should definitely compile our info for the day. Overall we need to use the day to its fullest.
B. Betiko/Mets: this debate has gone on for a few days, and I feel like between the two of the there is a scum.
C. My Take: I'm leaning slightly more Mets than Betiko here. The scum didn't seem to do anything last night, if Mets is scum it's a perfect way to "confirm" his claim. I am betting scum did something to skew Gustafs results last night, they seemed to have blocked him every other night and y wouldn't they block the doc if they were going to NK him, it makes no sense.

Guess I forgot to say, if you don't buy my claim you are more than welcome to try and vig me, it will confirm that I am who I say I am.


nice try godfather!
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby MoB Deadly on Sat Mar 09, 2013 10:53 am

Im going to recap this AGAIN. even though I feel like I have reposted it like 3-4 times. I feel like it is getting skipped over and ignored.

TheChuck was Mafia.

At the end of Day 3............

It was 4 votes on Betiko, and 2 votes on soundman...... Betiko was HOURS from getting lynched.

Betiko was claimed - Town Gifter.
soundman was claimed - Third Party Lyncher.

TheChuck, MOVED his vote. Instead of voting for a gifter, he goes after 3rd party?!??!?
Betiko FOLLOWS TheChuck and MOVES his vote over to soundman, making it 4 votes betiko, 4 votes soundman.

WHY ON EARTH. Would chuck move his vote from a GIFTER. To a 3rd party lyncher which had nothing to do with him. That would not make sense unless betiko was mafia and he needed to make a move to defend him.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby betiko on Sat Mar 09, 2013 11:21 am

MoB Deadly wrote:Im going to recap this AGAIN. even though I feel like I have reposted it like 3-4 times. I feel like it is getting skipped over and ignored.

TheChuck was Mafia.

At the end of Day 3............

It was 4 votes on Betiko, and 2 votes on soundman...... Betiko was HOURS from getting lynched.

Betiko was claimed - Town Gifter.
soundman was claimed - Third Party Lyncher.

TheChuck, MOVED his vote. Instead of voting for a gifter, he goes after 3rd party?!??!?
Betiko FOLLOWS TheChuck and MOVES his vote over to soundman, making it 4 votes betiko, 4 votes soundman.

WHY ON EARTH. Would chuck move his vote from a GIFTER. To a 3rd party lyncher which had nothing to do with him. That would not make sense unless betiko was mafia and he needed to make a move to defend him.



ever heard of town cred? 1 more vote on IB and you won with mafia mob.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby betiko on Sat Mar 09, 2013 11:37 am

MoB Deadly wrote:And yes I am sure it is not related to me finding my sons. I checked someone random Night 1, because both Misers did not claim until Day 2

that is the only time you used your search ability and didn't find one of your sons. you are still dodging what it said exactly, and I would still want to know what gustaf was told. You guys don't seem to be on the same page.

also still waiting for your revelation.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby betiko on Sat Mar 09, 2013 11:46 am

MoB Deadly wrote:
MoB Deadly wrote:I was roleblocked Night 1. There is definitely a mafia roleblocker.


please tell us more about this. you said something about dropped cards or something, you didn't explain more. Are you sure it's just that you didn't find one of your "childs" on night 1? If I get lynched you will see that i've been telling the truth about this and it doesn't make much sense, I don't see how my gift didn't reach you.

Also, would be nice to confront your roleblock message with the ones gustaf received. I never received any roleblock message.


Yes, forget the actual PM, (I didn't save it) but it said I slipped on a deck of cards or something of the sort. Yeah I was hoping Gustaf would confirm that for me by now.


betiko wrote:last thing mob, you said you had interesting information to reveal early this day and you still haven't done it.

Dont worry about it, the person that needs to know that information already knows. It is on a need to know basis.


This is what we get for letting betiko and IB just talk and talk and talk. Now he has us second guessing ourselves.

Why in the world would we go against a cop investigation. That is outrageous and I am not moving my vote for anything. We have no reason to believe Gustaf's result is insane. wrong, framed, converted, or any of the above. People could make different hypotheses all day long.

IB was on my scum list since the end of Day 3, I tried to bring it up on Day 4 but it got skipped over so I let it go. Here IB is again with a guilty result. We have no reason not to jump on this.


betiko wrote:we need edoc, witt, IB and ani in here!!!
betiko wrote:This is true. Except IB has been here.



sorry doing other things and there was this message that i didn't see. This is what we get seriously??? what we get is town to lose if you guys don't listen to me, but you win either way.
No reason not to beleive gustaf??? do I need to tell you again that no one was killed last night and that they comfortably for us left the cop investigate, and of course he comes up with a guilty result? so you're giving good odds to that, and bad odds that they had chrismas magic and prefered to use christmas magic rather than perform a kill?
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby edocsil on Sat Mar 09, 2013 11:51 am

betiko wrote:
pancakemix wrote:Vote Count

IB is 1 vote away from the lynch, so all mafia are on IB right now, just waiting to convince 1 town to win the game. Mafia are mets, rishaed and gustaf, I'm now convinced.


Or IB is scum and they aren't throwing him under the bus? Bad to assume that there is only one course of action for the scum.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - D5 [9/16] Silent Night

Postby rishaed on Sat Mar 09, 2013 11:53 am

pancakemix wrote:Vote Count

IB - 4 (Gustaf, MoB, Rish, Mets)
Mets - 1 (betiko)
MoB - 1 (IB)

9 alive 5 to lynch. We'll put the deadline at 1 week from today (March 16).

I unvoted... :?
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