You are misunderstanding the argument, or purposefully misrepresenting it. Right now the coin has been flipped once. What are the odds the next 9 flips will all be heads? I promise you, the mathematical truth is not 50%.

Of course it's not. But if some miracle happens and the coin flips 9 times ...

If I remember right ,Aage started this whole VIG thing, and I am still wondering how he knew that ? seems scummy to me, Will and Mandy are hiding behind numbers some make sense but I think it is just a diversion, I called Will and Marashu out and neither has yet denied my claim.AOG hasn't posted ...

So it is 50% that you will turn in any one night, 75% that you will turn in at least one of two nights and 87.5% that you will turn in at least one of any three nights. Your continuing attempts to live in deniel of these simple mathematical truths is a reason why sport betting is such a profitable ...

About my 2wc, I don't have to survive to day 6, only to have the game last that long. My post was unclear about that.

I don't consider his role a threat to town right now. It's kill power we can enlist.
Since the worst thing that could happen is he shoots another town, I suggest we limit those chances. Help him find a target if you must.

I don't really agree with that. And the more I thought about the ...

Marashu wrote:@william - what's your 2WC?

My 2wc was to survive to have the game last to day 6. I'm assuming this is to incentivise picking doctor over cop.

Opps, that was a typo. I meant to say, I think mandy and aage were switched. Not dakky.

Since im at -2, and since mitch and dakky already claimed, I'll claim to avoid someone putting me at -1 and risking a hammer.

I'm Seadra, a JOAT with a twist. Instead of getting 1 shot of block,investigate,protect and kill, I'm stuck with the first action I carry out, and I only get 2 more shots of ...

Shit I am tired of all these fractions, I feel like I am back in school and believe me that was no fun :evil: Here is numbers for you I believe William and Marashu are 99.999 % mafia . Let's get rid of one now and I will investigate the other at night, and let you know the outcome if I am still ...

I also think there is only 2 mafia left. So 2 mafia, 7 possible town/third party. If we mislynch, its probably gonna be 6v2. Then mafia and dakky take their shots. Thats 3v2v1, and we lose, worst case scenario. Best case is 5v2 with 50% chance to lose dakky, if he is town . If we lynch dakky, worst ...

ignore the "with hi", I accidently scraped some keys and the touchpad on my laptop sent the post.

EBWOP, best case if dakky lives is 5v1, with hi

Exactly, but do the math. If there were 4 mafia out of 14 players, that means it's currently 9 alive players, out of which 3 are scum. So currently it is probably 6v3. With me lynched and one NK, that will leave town at 4 vs 3. That means tomorrow is LYLO. If you lynch scum today, even with my bad ...

Letting Strike out of noose,his post sounds reasonable. can always check him out at night if needed. UNVOTE VOTE WILLIAM

Bandwagon much?

While I disagree with Strike's logic, at least he gives a reason for his vote. Dakky is, quite understandably, happy to help create a lynching controversy and ...

I assume that is your soft claim, that you are the vig dakky? You might as well full claim, because you're going to have to sooner or later.

Since there are 2nd winning conditions, full claiming for example a fire or water or fighting pokemon will just give someone a reason to vote me. I can ...

How am i 50% scum? I'm either scum or im not?

And what is the chance if you either are or you're not? 50% that you are, 50% that you are not.

With regards to the 10 percent, I thought I explained it decently. There is a 50% chance your sk, if we believe your roleclaim. There are 2, 1/9 chances ...

Just to elaborate lil more: Chance of flipping heads twice in a row is not 1/4, but still 1/2 because you are throwing the coin twice. Each throw is a separate event and each throw has 50% chance to flip to the head. So if you flip the coin and get heads 9 times in a row, 10th time chance is still ...

Yeah, I know it's not a game of chance, I'm just analysing the situation using probability, to see how big of a coincidence dakky's claim seems to be. Is 10% not that big of a coincidence to you? If this situation presented itself to us 10 times, 9 of those times dakky is lying and hes the mafia ...

I dont see how half the town suspected tim? Only dakky proposd this while only Marashu and Aage said they were open to lynching tim. Thats not half the town. So killing him seems like a good idea since there was no solid arguments towards him that would result in a lynch, and he also doesn't ...

EBWOP: Ok so your saying you were vanilla day 1 and night 1, then night two you either become sk or vig, and you keep doing coin flips until your sk, is that it?

Alright, so you lost the first 50/50, so you couldn't kill that night? You won the second 50/50 for night 2, and choose tim, conveniently on the same night when mafia fail to kill. So assuming there is a roleblocker and a doctor, with 10 people alive on night 2 the odds of you killing while mafia ...

Actually, the odds are (0.5)(2/9) = 11%

Since roleblockers and doctors cant target themselves, I'm assuming

I assume that is your soft claim, that you are the vig dakky? You might as well full claim, because you're going to have to sooner or later.

Since there are 2nd winning conditions, full claiming for example a fire or water or fighting pokemon will just give someone a reason to vote me. I can just ...

Considering yesterday's lynch, I don't think I have to explain anything to you.

So he has so much town credit now he can command and don't explain anything? How and why would he know it was a vigi shot instead of mafia kill? Only if he was mafia and his kill didn't get through. Lost in a lie ...

How did satan risk everything for humans? He was already exiled to damnation.

Also he didn't tell eve to eat the apple because it would give her knowledge. He wanted curse the human race to sin. His whole plan is to tempt souls to hell, and rule over them.