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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - Day 3 [13/16] Rum-pum-pum-pum

Postby anamainiacks on Wed Feb 13, 2013 12:21 pm

Purely based on the posts betiko quoted above, I don't see what's scummy about Mets' response at all.

betiko was pointing out a supposed slip-up by rishaed - for alluding to a game mechanic that we weren't aware existed at the time;
Mets was calling out betiko for a supposed slip-up as well - for potentially 'knowing' that the game mechanic did indeed exist.

Especially after the contention over the game mechanics over gift stealing was made so clear, I don't think Mets can be called under suspicion for 'knowing' something that the rest of us didn't know of. If there was a slip-up in that dialogue at all, it should lie with either rishaed or betiko.

That said, I still think it was just a joke vote, and not much evidence with which to build a case... I don't think betiko slipped up either, as if he did, he wouldn't be bringing it up now, out of the blue. Best to leave a slip-up untouched. I guess he could well be calling our bluff with some reverse psychology thing, but since it would only last for a round (i.e. if he were indeed faking, we'd find out if we followed his lynch vote and failed), I don't think betiko would take such a risk.

I'm interested to see what betiko can find on rishaed's posts, though (:
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - Day 3 [13/16] Rum-pum-pum-pum

Postby rishaed on Wed Feb 13, 2013 1:21 pm

If there truly is a gift stealing mechanic out there, I wouldn't have know. I just looked above me to see who had already voted, saw MoB's avatar, and made an appropriate joke Vote. I know that you are trying really hard to dig up a case, but I think you are reading too much into that joke vote. Allluding to a game mechanic in a joke vote like that means absolutely nothing. It just as likely that anyone who makes a statment like that in a joke vote is town/scum. If you want to build a case on me go right ahead though.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - Day 3 [13/16] Rum-pum-pum-pum

Postby MoB Deadly on Wed Feb 13, 2013 2:43 pm

I agree with the others. Based on the quote you provided the scummiest comment there was actually yours betiko :lol: :lol:

Kanin explained my initial thoughts pretty well

I dont see anything scummy from rishead or mets
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - Day 3 [13/16] Rum-pum-pum-pum

Postby Iron Butterfly on Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:16 pm

betiko wrote:hum I got to say that wasn't the townie I was expecting to find dead today. But not really surprised to see that keener was telling the truth.
nendreel what are the news today?


"bah 1 day left, I don't see how this is gonna end other than with keener's lynch, might as well get this going.
vote superkeener.
A bit of a gamble, but that role will only be really usefull really later in the game. I have nothing that tells me he is scum or town, so with the doubt... anyway I don't know about that miser situation, they are not telling all the perks.."

I want to go back to keener because this seems important to me.

He was not surprised to see keener lynched and also states before the lynch he feels it is a forgone conclusion. Yet he say's I have nothing to tell me one way or another he is Town or Scum So he votes to lynch. Talk about hedging bets while trying to appear Town. Its easy to say after the fact about not being surprised.

I say all this because I also thought betiko had evidence on reshead about the gift stealing and even started a mini bandwagon. A page later it comes out there is no evidence, just pure speculation. While its ok to discuss speculation I find it very odd and scummy in the in the way it was presented.

What also raised my eyebrow was betiko believed Rishead should claim using false evidence. If betiko is mafia or third party it just helps set the table for them.

I also couldn't help but get the feeling that if rishead was lynched and flips town Betiko could once again safly go oh well I was wrong.

Vote Betiko

I will not be wishy washy.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - Day 3 [13/16] Rum-pum-pum-pum

Postby betiko on Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:55 pm

Iron Butterfly wrote:
betiko wrote:hum I got to say that wasn't the townie I was expecting to find dead today. But not really surprised to see that keener was telling the truth.
nendreel what are the news today?


"bah 1 day left, I don't see how this is gonna end other than with keener's lynch, might as well get this going.
vote superkeener.
A bit of a gamble, but that role will only be really usefull really later in the game. I have nothing that tells me he is scum or town, so with the doubt... anyway I don't know about that miser situation, they are not telling all the perks.."

I want to go back to keener because this seems important to me.

He was not surprised to see keener lynched and also states before the lynch he feels it is a forgone conclusion. Yet he say's I have nothing to tell me one way or another he is Town or Scum So he votes to lynch. Talk about hedging bets while trying to appear Town. Its easy to say after the fact about not being surprised.

I say all this because I also thought betiko had evidence on reshead about the gift stealing and even started a mini bandwagon. A page later it comes out there is no evidence, just pure speculation. While its ok to discuss speculation I find it very odd and scummy in the in the way it was presented.

What also raised my eyebrow was betiko believed Rishead should claim using false evidence. If betiko is mafia or third party it just helps set the table for them.

I also couldn't help but get the feeling that if rishead was lynched and flips town Betiko could once again safly go oh well I was wrong.

Vote Betiko

I will not be wishy washy.


People have been telling me they were surprised I wasn't agressive on keener. if you look back I've been trying to find better stuff than this, but no one had been following. The case on keener was only smoke. After that, he claimed and I thought it was a dodgy role. Even if there was 90% chances he was telling the truth, I would've hated to have a mafia roleblocker or something, was pretty difficult to prove his role. I just gave up on him and went with the bet that he could eventually turn scum, other people had his faith sealed anyway and all conversations had died. So yes, I'm not surprised he turns out town as the odds for me were highly leaning that way. Blame me for his lynch if you want, that last vote really made the difference! :roll: why don't you look at people convinced back then by the fluffy case, like rishaed for example?

where did i say I had strong evidence on the gift stealing case? the lead is good enough for me since it's been ticking me since the start of the game. there is no rule that says that in the joke vote stage someone can't slip. Au contraire! People tend to lower their guard and can be more chitty chatty. Is it my fault if people blindly bandwagonned on my case without asking questions? that is the question.
ANd make him claim using false evidence? lol. false evidennce would be saying "I got a PM telling me rishaed stole all my gifts last night" can you quote the false evidence please, cause I can't quite catch you?

Suppose your case gets me lynched and you see that I'm town. You'll have to admit you were wrong, so would that mean you're scum? lol pretty moot thinking there.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - Day 3 [13/16] Rum-pum-pum-pum

Postby betiko on Thu Feb 14, 2013 5:00 am

wow, so much conversation in here. I wanted todo a little recap:

jonty -> rudolph, town redirector
Kanin Usagi -> little drummer boy, town inspiration
superkeener -> baby new year, town roleblocker


spiesr -> snow miser, 3rd party heat miser lyncher
soundman -> heat miser, 3rd party survivor
nendreel -> ?, possible town cop

so we are left with 10 we know very little about:
NoSurvivors
rishaed
betiko
edocsil
Little Witt
anamainiacks
Iron Butterfly
MoB Deadly
Metsfanmax
thechuck51
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - Day 3 [13/16] Rum-pum-pum-pum

Postby betiko on Thu Feb 14, 2013 6:31 pm

can we prod little witt, metsfan and edoc? they haven't posted in a week or so...
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - Day 3 [13/16] Rum-pum-pum-pum

Postby Metsfanmax on Thu Feb 14, 2013 8:48 pm

Most of that week was night time. I'll add in some more concrete thoughts in a day or two, but I am persuaded by the arguments against betiko. I won't vote yet until I can explain myself better.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - Day 3 [13/16] Rum-pum-pum-pum

Postby betiko on Fri Feb 15, 2013 7:09 am

well if you guys feel like wasting our time with me go ahead, if at least there were more stuff going on in here.. I guess that with the 2 gifts first cap no one has had the chance to trade anything yet (unless 2 different gifters sent their 1st gift to the same person on night 1 which would be very unlikely). I kind of feel like this is a bit unballanced for town if mafia are able to steal gifts (unless it's a 1 shot, and in that case it would be pretty stupid to use it so soon).I'm starting to think it's possibly more of a 3rd party ability, otherwise we stand no chance against them..
Anyway, I'm kind of thinking this could be a nice little setup. Mafia knew I would get jumpy about the gift stealing, so they targeted me. Did anyone receive a PM after night 1 telling them they got all their gifts stolen?
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - Day 3 [13/16] Rum-pum-pum-pum

Postby MoB Deadly on Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:00 am

betiko wrote:can we prod little witt, metsfan and edoc? they haven't posted in a week or so...


I think focusing on submariners is a good idea, with a game with this level of activity the scum could win just by casting a few votes and submarining. I have seen that happen before.


As for the case on betiko, I will say I have seen quite a few comments that jumped out at me. But at best betiko would get a FOS from me. He has been the most active, so of course I am not going to agree with every single post he makes. When there is 1 main leader of a mafia game you always have to be cautious that they dont fog up the game more and lead down dead paths.

However, I think our activity is slacking and without betiko this game will get even more inactive. I think he is worth more to us alive, even if we are risking a chance that he is mafia.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - Day 3 [13/16] Rum-pum-pum-pum

Postby spiesr on Fri Feb 15, 2013 10:54 am

One random point I feel like throwing out there. Based on the information we have right now, there is no proof that Betiko is telling the truth about gifts being stolen from him. It could be that he is scum and decided to use his gifts for a scummy action. By claiming they were stolen he avoids have to answer to the town when they ask what he did with his gifts. By implying the the thief is scum he avoids having the problem of the thief never claiming.

I have no reason to believe that this is the case at present. Just noting the possibility for future reference.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - Day 3 [13/16] Rum-pum-pum-pum

Postby rishaed on Fri Feb 15, 2013 12:56 pm

The game has slowed down considerably more than usual. Unfortunately, i don't have any meaningful information atm, so its a bit hard for me to post on what's going on here. I'd rather not start posting fluff either.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - Day 3 [13/16] Rum-pum-pum-pum

Postby anamainiacks on Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:12 am

Wow, the game has really slowed down here. I apologise for my lack of posting these last few days, been busy celebrating the Chinese New Year so didn't have much time to analyse the posts and all. Now, to give my take on the stuff and raise a few points.

I'm not entirely convinced by IB's case on betiko, especially the first part about superkeener, which I don't quite understand. With regard to this, I think betiko's defence was pretty convincing, in that by the time he cast his vote for the lynch, to vote or to abstain would have resulted in no different outcome. That said, this doesn't quite cover the suspicion thrown onto him from his reaction to the earlier joke vote, but this at most gets an FOS from me, for now.

But like spiesr pointed out, we don't know for sure whether betiko's telling the truth about his PM concerning gifts being stolen. If someone had his gifts stolen on Night 1, it would be great if he could corroborate this story too...

And I agree that we should be prodding the inactives... They can easily submarine at this rate.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - Day 3 [13/16] Rum-pum-pum-pum

Postby spiesr on Sat Feb 16, 2013 10:06 pm

Well Betiko, your case against rishaed was slightly below average on Day 1, now it looks like bad on Day 3. Do you have any other angles we could look at? I'm not terribly motivated to find anything myself at the moment, but I would certainly offer my thoughts on any you come up with.
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Re: [Official] Holiday Mafia - Day 3 [13/16] Rum-pum-pum-pum

Postby pancakemix on Sat Feb 16, 2013 11:47 pm

Vote Count

Rish - 1 (betiko)
betiko - 1 (IB)

Day ends on Feb. 22. A 24-hour runoff will be held in the even of a tie.

Little Witt was prodded yesterday, and as of right now has not responded. I'll be seeking a replacement. If there are any other requests for prod/replaces, do not hesitate to speak up.
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