Closed Pending GranRey and eddys secret diplomacy(SN)

[Junior Bee]

Accused:

GranRey]
Eddys


The accused are suspected of:


Conducting Secret Diplomacy


Game number(s):

#16939339
16939340

Comments: Game 16939339 Gran Rey and eddys clearly have an alliance ( look at canada and usa) and support each other to gain regions. They have had no communication in chat in this game.
Gran Rey has created several World 2.1 games that eddys has joined . Evidence from other players see chat log of 16939339 is that this is similar pattern of play.

[owenshooter]

fixed your links...-Bj

Accused: GranRey,Eddys


The accused are suspected of: Conducting Secret Diplomacy


Game number(s): Game 16939339, Game 16939340

Comments:
Game 16939339 Gran Rey and eddys clearly have an alliance ( look at canada and usa) and support each other to gain regions. They have had no communication in chat in this game.
Gran Rey has created several World 2.1 games that eddys has joined . Evidence from other players see chat log of 16939339 is that this is similar pattern of play.

[Dukasaur]

GranRey and eddys in 37 games together.

18 of those are complete. Of the 18 complete games (mostly 10-player, a few 7-player, all against experienced competion Majors or better) GranRey has won 6 and eddys has won 5, or 11/18 between the two of them. That makes one suspicious.

Also, in Game 16939339 that JB referenced above, we find:

2016-11-20 20:47:53 - joshzam: Junior Bee, I was curious after your accusations of "secret diplomacy" against GranRey and eddys. I amcurrently playing in SEVEN different games with both of them. All on this same map, and all created by GranRey.
2016-11-20 20:49:43 - joshzam: I can tell you that after dozens and dozens of rounds and hundreds of attacks, neither of these players have attacked each other ONCE! I just checked. That is some serious bullshit that should probably be investigated. That is not cool at all!
2016-11-20 20:51:27 - joshzam: All of those other games are Fog games so it was never so painfully obvious how they were helping each other before. But since GranRey messed up and created this one without fog, we can all see exactly what they are up to.

Searched for the games that joshzam mentioned, found 9 of them. Didn't have time to read all the logs, but randomly picked 2, and in two well-advanced games it is exactly as josh says -- not a single attack by GranRey and eddys on each other in an entire game. This also makes one suspicious.

Then, there is the Game 16939340 referenced by Tennissie:

2016-11-21 00:39:19 - Tennisie: Well, that would explain why eddys reduced but didn't take my regions so GranRey could gain the US bonus in game 16939340.
2016-11-21 00:40:06 - Tennisie: Even admitted in chat what he did, presumably so they could fight each other without my interference:
2016-11-21 00:40:31 - Tennisie: 2016-11-13 18:44:22 - eddys: I attacked 4 of 5 in West-USA, 2 of 3 in Southern-USA, Cuba and Caribean.
2016-11-21 00:40:36 - Tennisie: 2016-11-13 18:44:52 - eddys: Let smoke it out in our countries.
2016-11-21 00:42:32 - Tennisie: Of course, they never "smoked it out" with each other after that.

[Tennisie]

GranRey and eddys are rapidly eliminating all other opponents in Game 16939339.
Seems like Bandido might also be in on the scam because he has been defending their actions in another game and coordinating with them in this one.

[Donelladan]

GranRey and eddys are rapidly eliminating all other opponents in Game 16939339.
Seems like Bandido might also be in on the scam because he has been defending their actions in another game and coordinating with them in this one.

lol, Bandido only said :

2016-11-22 22:37:08 - Bandido: I think there is no secret diplomacy. If a player dont attack you and don't stack armies in your commun border, you say "ok let's wait and see what he 's going to do"

Which is correct. Happened to me lot of time in fog or sunny games against various opponent. Sometimes you don't put army on a border, you see your opponent doesn't and doesn't seem willing to break your bonus, you keep it that way. This is valid, and has been brought up in other C&A case before, I guess everyone know that.


Now on GranRey and eddys.
I dunno why this game is being reported : Game 16939340

At the moment they have troops on their border, and as you said, they allied in the game chat, therefore it is definitely NOT a proof of secret diplomacy since there is open diplomacy between them in the chat...

GranRey and eddys in 37 games together.

18 of those are complete. Of the 18 complete games (mostly 10-player, a few 7-player, all against experienced competion Majors or better) GranRey has won 6 and eddys has won 5, or 11/18 between the two of them. That makes one suspicious.

It's now 19 games complete
It mean that GranRey has a win % of 6/19 = 31,5% when eddys is in game.
GranRey win % is 28% otherwise, ( 28 / 99 games). Given the small size of the sample ( 6/19) , the 31,5% win of GranRey on those 18 games looks to be right if I compare it with his overall win% of 28%.

Note that on the 18 games still active with both players, GranRey is already eliminated in 8 of them btw.

Let's go further in the game already finished.
There is 13 World 2.1 game ( same map than in the OP) finished with GranRey and eddys. Among those 13 games, GranRey only won 3, in 2 of them game GranRey won, he won them at round limit, and in both eddys was already eliminated, so no evidence of eddys helping GranRey winning those 2 games.
Remaining game GranRey eliminated eddys last, didn't check the game log in deail.

eddys won 3, he eliminated everyone in all game, in 2 of them he eliminated GranRey last, in the other GranRey was eliminated first ( therefore eddy won by himself obviously).


Then they had 4 dawn of ages games together. GranRey won 3, eddys 1. Those could look suspicious. Especially seems GranRey and eddys seemed to be last players alive in all 4 games.

In most of the active game they have together, either one of them is already eliminated, or it's too early in the game to tell if there is something going on ( all players alive, games below round 10) and it's fog.

Imo, not enough info to judge here. One game, [Game]16939339 [/Game], is definitely not enough to convince of SD. And their move can be explained by mutual interest. Why would you fight the other big dog if you can grab easy land elsewhere ? I would play just like they do, avoiding fight with other leaders.

[Extreme Ways]

GranRey and eddys are rapidly eliminating all other opponents in Game 16939339.
Seems like Bandido might also be in on the scam because he has been defending their actions in another game and coordinating with them in this one.

lol, Bandido only said :

2016-11-22 22:37:08 - Bandido: I think there is no secret diplomacy. If a player dont attack you and don't stack armies in your commun border, you say "ok let's wait and see what he 's going to do"

Which is correct. Happened to me lot of time in fog or sunny games against various opponent. Sometimes you don't put army on a border, you see your opponent doesn't and doesn't seem willing to break your bonus, you keep it that way. This is valid, and has been brought up in other C&A case before, I guess everyone know that.

Seconded. This is also known as "gunboat diplomacy" in the Diplomacy board game, and the concept applies here too. Lets take Game 16939339 as example.
1) If electric green attacks red, red will see it as a declaration of war and counterattack. Electric green won't win.
2a) If red attacks electric green, chances are electric green will suicide with what he has left, as red betrayed his trust. Electric green can also demand his territories back with a suicide threat behind it. Both ways, if red wastes ~40 units for a +6 bonus and 2 more borders to defend (assuming he also takes Caribbean), he'll get teamed up on.
2b) Electric green is currently breaking orange, something red then doesnt have to worry about when/if green retracts his Greece stack.

(The term gunboat diplomacy in the diplomacy refers to a game of diplomacy without negotiation, hence why "truces" are also included in the term.)

[Shannon Apple]

It does kinda look bad though, they have won a disproportionate amount of these type of games that they played together. I used to play these types of games with all majors and above. A VERY decent player will win around 20%-25% of these 7 and 8 player games at that level if they are lucky and I mean, very lucky. Taking into account that 20% is above average for this level of play. It's not normal that between them they've won such a huge percentage. 11/18 between 2 that's around 30-33% for one player. Something isn't right.

I hope it's noted at the very least.


EDIT: Just realised that there's 11 player games in there, which would lower the average win percentage even further as I was going on 7-8 players. The more players , the less chance you have of winning.

[archieball]

This does seam a little weird, but why would a guy from the Netherlands with 2,500 games all of a sudden decide to team up with a guy from Mexico with less than 100 games to his name?

GranRedy joined this site in March of this year with less than 100 games played already playing at Colonel level? Unless this guy is CC god, then he shouldn't be winning this many multiplayer games against the seasoned skilled players he's playing against.

Mexico+Netherland...wtf....

Proof seams a little tough. Players should be reluctant to joins games in which they are both involved.

[sniffie]

I have looked into this evidence. They have not attacked each other. But on the other hand, I can not find anymore evidence that they are teaming up together.
I am not saying that they are not guilty but I am not yet quite convinced they are are guilty...

Sniff

[Shannon Apple]

Junior Bee. You're probably best off foeing one of them so that they both can't join a game that you have already joined. That's what I would do if I felt that something wasn't right over several games and I intended to play a lot on these settings. Just a thought.

[Tennisie]

Now on GranRey and eddys.
I dunno why this game is being reported : Game 16939340

At the moment they have troops on their border, and as you said, they allied in the game chat, therefore it is definitely NOT a proof of secret diplomacy since there is open diplomacy between them in the chat...

This game was reported because eddys spent many troops to weaken Tennisie in West USA and Southern USA specifically to help GranRey take USA bonus. Then he said "2016-11-13 18:44:52 - eddys: Let smoke it out in our countries.", implying that they would fight over the bonuses, but they never did and never will until all other opponents are eliminated. It makes no sense to help an opponent take a bonus if you plan to later break that bonus.

It's now 19 games complete
It mean that GranRey has a win % of 6/19 = 31,5% when eddys is in game.
GranRey win % is 28% otherwise, ( 28 / 99 games). Given the small size of the sample ( 6/19) , the 31,5% win of GranRey on those 18 games looks to be right if I compare it with his overall win% of 28%.

The overall win rate dilutes the percentage. Instead, compare GranRey's 31,5% win rate when eddys is in game versus his win rate when eddys is NOT in game.

[Symmetry]

Now on GranRey and eddys.
I dunno why this game is being reported : Game 16939340

At the moment they have troops on their border, and as you said, they allied in the game chat, therefore it is definitely NOT a proof of secret diplomacy since there is open diplomacy between them in the chat...

This game was reported because eddys spent many troops to weaken Tennisie in West USA and Southern USA specifically to help GranRey take USA bonus. Then he said "2016-11-13 18:44:52 - eddys: Let smoke it out in our countries.", implying that they would fight over the bonuses, but they never did and never will until all other opponents are eliminated. It makes no sense to help an opponent take a bonus if you plan to later break that bonus.

It's now 19 games complete
It mean that GranRey has a win % of 6/19 = 31,5% when eddys is in game.
GranRey win % is 28% otherwise, ( 28 / 99 games). Given the small size of the sample ( 6/19) , the 31,5% win of GranRey on those 18 games looks to be right if I compare it with his overall win% of 28%.

The overall win rate dilutes the percentage. Instead, compare GranRey's 31,5% win rate when eddys is in game versus his win rate when eddys is NOT in game.

Is that not exactly what he did?

[Donelladan]

Nah, I guess Tennisie want me to calculate the win % of GranRey without the game with eddys. I took overall win% of Granrey, including game with and without eddys.
Would mean, 28/99 have to withdraw 6 and 19.
Become 22/80 = 27,5%, compared to 6/19 = 31,5%.
Yes it is a bit higher when eddys is in a game, but again, we gotta wait the other games are finished, GranRey win% will obviously be less afterwards since he is already out in 8 of the 18 games remaining !

This game was reported because eddys spent many troops to weaken Tennisie in West USA and Southern USA specifically to help GranRey take USA bonus. Then he said "2016-11-13 18:44:52 - eddys: Let smoke it out in our countries.", implying that they would fight over the bonuses, but they never did and never will until all other opponents are eliminated. It makes no sense to help an opponent take a bonus if you plan to later break that bonus.

2016-10-30 21:21:52 - eddys: Red: I will fix something
2016-11-02 12:22:57 - eddys: Red: of course truce is OK
2016-11-03 18:02:21 - eddys: Sorry red, I missed the move. I will try next time (if I don't forget again)
2016-11-14 00:41:39 - eddys: Red, tennisie is a pain in the ass. First it took my bonus in Mexico. Now yours in America.
2016-11-14 00:44:22 - eddys: I attacked 4 of 5 in West-USA, 2 of 3 in Southern-USA, Cuba and Caribean.
2016-11-14 00:44:52 - eddys: Let smoke it out in our countries.

Well, I am not a native english speaker, but I do not understand the same than you.
Here I understand they gonna fight you,tennisie, in America, and the "let smoke it out in our countries" means they want to attack you.
They just made a truce 4 lines above, they can't mean to fight each other.

[Tennisie]

Well, I am not a native english speaker, but I do not understand the same than you.
Here I understand they gonna fight you,tennisie, in America, and the "let smoke it out in our countries" means they want to attack you.
They just made a truce 4 lines above, they can't mean to fight each other.

Holy lexicon, Batman, I think you've nailed it! eddys is not a native English speaker, so I misunderstood his use of the word "it".

2016-11-13 18:41:39 - eddys: Red, tennisie is a pain in the ass. First it took my bonus in Mexico. Now yours in America.
2016-11-13 18:44:22 - eddys: I attacked 4 of 5 in West-USA, 2 of 3 in Southern-USA, Cuba and Caribean.
2016-11-13 18:44:52 - eddys: Let smoke it out in our countries.

Native English speakers use "his" or "his/her" for gender neutral reference to the third person, but eddys is using "it". With that interpretation, he's obviously suggesting that he and GranRey "smoke" Tennisie out of their countries, which is exactly what they did.

Looks like an apology is due from Tennisie.

The fact that they did not attack each during all those multiplayer games could still be suspicious, but it might not be "secret" diplomacy, it might be just "implicit" diplomacy. The first is prohibited, the second is not. Perhaps they just clicked and mutually decided without any written communication to help each other.

I help run the annual Lehigh Valley Risk Club boardgame tournament in Bethlehem, PA, USA. Explicit diplomacy (verbal, written, footsies, etc.) is prohibited, but not implicit diplomacy. There's no way to enforce a rule against implicit diplomacy, so we don't prohibit it. However, when we assign players to boards, we separate people who are related or good friends to prevent implicit diplomacy. That can't be done on CC, so occasionally we should expect it to occur. I don't use that strategy myself, but I'm sure not everyone feels that way.

Thanks for clearing that up. I'm satisfied that this issue can be closed, but Junior Bee may prefer to see it run to ground.

[sniffie]

So now what?? Do we all shake hands and sing along??

[Junior Bee]

My view now is that eddys and Gran Rey are probably not working together with explicit diplomacy but having said they do seem to have developed a special relationship that works very well for them!

..... so much so that eddys now only joins games created by GranRey!
in fact eddys said #16939339 2016-11-24 21:12:31:
"you can't understand that Mexicans and Dutch don't need words to communicatie."

So even if they are not conducting secret diplomacy - be aware even without communication these 2 players will work together in games to their mutual benefit. But i am happy for case to be closed with no hard feelings.

Just as an aside... out of interest! Mexico and Netherlands do have a special relationship. Relations between the Netherlands and Mexico https://www.government.nl/topics/intern ... nts/mexico
"After the US, the Netherlands is Mexico’s second largest source of foreign investment.... Practically all Dutch multinationals have branches in Mexico....Small and medium-sized Dutch firms are also making inroads in Mexico"

[bluesblazzer]

Kum By AHHHHHH

[sniffie]

Closed this one.

They way they fight is up to them. I see no reason in punishment or whatsoever with only this evidence.

sniff