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Dice Stats by game, Card Luck stats, and Net Luck Troops

PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 9:37 pm
by JeopardyTempest
Concise description:
  • A dropdown in battle outcome statistics to select by each separate game played, or at least for the current\most recent game
  • Provide card trade luck statistics as well, highlighting the types of sets made and timing of those trades

For background, I usually calculate how luck has affected my game by calculating the net troops versus my opponent from the battle outcomes luck. I do this by pulling up the page and summing the (percentage)X(total kills+losses) for each column in the battle outcome statistics. That tells me what I've gained\lost overall. It has allowed me to see where I've been hosed (I think vs a couple opponents I'm -50 troops, which is really extreme), and where it's been my poor play (I've definitely lost some +5 or more games, which is pretty bad). I think this value is a really useful number to quickly assess the luck in the game. In fact, I believe it is the straightforward statistic for such.
As for site updates...
  • I'd love to have the option to look at Battle Outcomes on a game-by-game basis, so I can see just how well\poorly a specific game has gone.
  • If we had that, then, it could really improve the game to have the luck statistic available directly on each game page (I think it would help players maintain a better handle of the real way each game has gone).
  • Also would like to do have a stat for card trade luck available (particularly in flat rate games). The calculation method should be fairly straightforward as well.
The three of these would provide a one-stop shop to the game's luck, and present it to users in an accessible, useable way. It still won't tell you absolutely everything on luck (first turn luck is generally much more important than subsequent turns), but dice and card stats provided more conspicuously would help users understanding their games much better in a rather easy way.

How this will benefit the site and/or other comments:
  • Utilize the luck stats much better by making them more accessible
  • Give users a better knowledge of how the game has been going, perhaps limiting unreasonable complaints and boasting
  • Allow for information to be presented by a more natural, useful delimiter than last 5\10\25 turns, so it is more meaningful.
  • Provide a more complete picture of each game's luck by adding information on card trading

Re: Dice Stats by Game and Card Luck

PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 10:06 pm
by JeopardyTempest
To provide example of the calculation I speak of, I chose a first-time opponent that I'm playing... so I'm looking at Game 12440942.

I pull up my Overall Battle Outcomes versus razorbakes and I find the bottom row:

Total -5% 22 28 -20% 6 12 -11% 2 2 -4% 4 4 +26% 1 0 -25% 1 3

(these are groups of 3 by each separate dice situation as you can find on the bottom row of the Battle Outcome or Dice stats page).

So versus him I am -0.05 * 50 + -.11 * 18 + -.04 * 8 + .26 * 1 - .25 * 4 = -5.54 armies against him.
(This is an estimate because of rounded percentages on the site, but could be precise if the server calculated it)

I'm losing the game. But losing over 5 armies to him from the dice, I can recognize that this is a usually probably a losing situation. So, it certainly doesn't mean I'm better than he is, but it gives me some confidence I'm playing the game reasonably. The dice go back and forth, it's a part of the game, I cannot really use this value to boast or complain, since I know my overall dice are 0% luck as they should be. But by quickly determining this statistic, it helps me see if what I'm perceiving as very trying dice, either during a game or against a certain opponent in general, are real or not. If this value were right on the game page, it'd quiet many unknowingly poor comments, put the truth front-and-center for everyone.

Re: Dice Stats by Game and Card Luck

PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 10:09 pm
by JeopardyTempest
Furthermore, if we wanted to take this Net Luck Armies (NLA??) further, could use sampling to find the percentage of games won for different NLA for each map and turn combination. Then you can REALLY know if you are playing well or not.

Could also even include some sort of adjustment factor to NLA to highlight the heavier importance of early turn luck.

Re: Dice Stats by Game and Card Luck

PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 10:09 pm
by nicestash
I like it