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Attack Odds Table

Postby runewake2 on Fri Aug 02, 2013 10:38 am

I've been working on improving my mobile apps by making the attacks odds calculator run faster. In order to do that I generated a table containing the odds of all attacks with less than or 100 troops. It's organized so that the number of attacks starts at 2 and defenders at 1. Attackers are incremented by row and defenders by column.

You can use this to easily lookup the odds of an attack succeeding by using these to calculate the row and column you need. Row = number of attackers on country - 1. Column = number of defenders on country.

While this probably isn't as useful for actual users, I think it provides a much nicer way to do these calculations, especially on mobile platforms where you are limited by the processors power. Anyway, I've got a nicely formatted Excel Spreadsheet version and a CSV version. I've put them on SkyDrive so you should be able to view the Spreadsheet in your browser. You can also download the CSV file or .XLSX file for offline use in your app, extension or for personal use.

Excel .XLSX File (Viewable in browser or download)
Comma Delimited .CSV File (Download)
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Re: Attack Odds Table

Postby agentcom on Fri Aug 09, 2013 1:42 pm

Just the other day I was rolling 12 attackers v. P defenders and I wondered what had happened! Guess I should've checked the table ....


Might want to put numbers on your columns
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Re: Attack Odds Table

Postby dboeke on Fri Aug 09, 2013 5:21 pm

Not sure how you did your math, but the odds of winning 2 v 1 are: 57.870%

But your table says odds of winning are 41.67% ???
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Re: Attack Odds Table

Postby ender516 on Fri Aug 09, 2013 8:57 pm

You might want to look into the Assault Odds script. It does a very good job of calculating odds accurately and quickly.
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Re: Attack Odds Table

Postby runewake2 on Sat Aug 10, 2013 11:55 pm

dboeke wrote:Not sure how you did your math, but the odds of winning 2 v 1 are: 57.870%

But your table says odds of winning are 41.67% ???


I created the table using a script which automatically filled in all the troop values (1-100) for both attacker and defender on Gambit Games calculator and saved the result to the table.

Also, keep in mind that the first cell is two armies on the attacking country, not two armies attacking. The first cell would be 1v1.

I'd also point out that your math is not correct. I assume you got your number from Wikipedia which does state that their is a chance of the attacker winning a 2v1 combat as 57.87% but that is only the percent of the attacker winning both dice and does not include the chance of the attacker losing the first combat (thus reducing the combat to a 1v1) and then fighting again. My calculations do take this into account.

Taking that into account I've double checked my numbers and they do appear correct.

ender516 wrote:You might want to look into the Assault Odds script. It does a very good job of calculating odds accurately and quickly.


I am actually replacing the odds calculator I had that was similar to this with the odds table in my mobile apps because, while this script may run well on your computer mobile phones have significantly less power. The script in Conqueror can take anywhere from a millisecond with small calculations to over a minute when you get over 50 troops on either side. This is because the number of calculations scales exponentially with the number of troops you have and quickly gets out of hand. On the other hand, while a table obviously imposes a set limit it also enables those upper bounds to be calculated just as quickly as the lower ones. Case and point, a one minute calculation now takes less than a second.

agentcom wrote:Just the other day I was rolling 12 attackers v. P defenders and I wondered what had happened! Guess I should've checked the table ....


Might want to put numbers on your columns


I've added a new row to the top of the excel spreadsheet that includes a quick search feature. You enter the number of troops in the offending and defending country and it will look up the value for you. In order to take advantage of this however you will need to download the spreadsheet to your PC. I have disabled editing of the file for obvious reasons.
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Re: Attack Odds Table

Postby OliverFA on Mon Oct 07, 2013 9:19 am

As you say, that's very useful for mobile platforms, and even for cases when you play in a PC but is not your usual one. Thanks for sharing it!
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Re: Attack Odds Table

Postby General Roy on Wed Jul 30, 2014 8:35 am

You need to look at the odds for 1 attacking die v. 1 defending die here. The chance of success here is 41.67%, which is exactly what the table says.

A question in that regard: I am trying to find the old Greacemonkey script Assault Odds, but the link given doesn't lead anywhere sensible any longer, regretably. Anyone who can help, please?

dboeke wrote:Not sure how you did your math, but the odds of winning 2 v 1 are: 57.870%

But your table says odds of winning are 41.67% ???
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Re: Attack Odds Table

Postby runewake2 on Wed Jul 30, 2014 10:08 pm

General Roy wrote:You need to look at the odds for 1 attacking die v. 1 defending die here. The chance of success here is 41.67%, which is exactly what the table says.

A question in that regard: I am trying to find the old Greacemonkey script Assault Odds, but the link given doesn't lead anywhere sensible any longer, regretably. Anyone who can help, please?

dboeke wrote:Not sure how you did your math, but the odds of winning 2 v 1 are: 57.870%

But your table says odds of winning are 41.67% ???


What about here. I personally do not use add-ons, but that link should get you what you're looking for.
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Re: Attack Odds Table

Postby General Roy on Thu Jul 31, 2014 1:05 am

Thanks. Someone else gave me the link to all the available tools, so now I'm fine.
A pity it's more hidden now than it was, though.

runewake2 wrote:
General Roy wrote:You need to look at the odds for 1 attacking die v. 1 defending die here. The chance of success here is 41.67%, which is exactly what the table says.

A question in that regard: I am trying to find the old Greacemonkey script Assault Odds, but the link given doesn't lead anywhere sensible any longer, regretably. Anyone who can help, please?

dboeke wrote:Not sure how you did your math, but the odds of winning 2 v 1 are: 57.870%

But your table says odds of winning are 41.67% ???


What about here. I personally do not use add-ons, but that link should get you what you're looking for.
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