Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

by **lancehoch** on Thu Oct 16, 2008 4:40 pm

Individual game statistics have not worked for some time.

by **Ikalos** on Tue Jan 20, 2009 1:51 pm

I know this is ah, rather late so to speak, but someone mentioned on page one that the CC dice are streaky.

That's because they are truly random. It's a common misconception that for something to be "random" it must be ABBBAABAABBBABABA or something like that. In a set of 10, with truly random dice, it's entirely possible to get straight B's or A's.

I just added this my user scripts. Wish I'd known about this yesterday. >.>;; Tossed a lot of dice between then and now.

Also, this is my very first post.

Aaaaand it looks like I necro'd it. D: Nooooo, I sowwie!

by **zeros** on Sat Jan 24, 2009 1:58 pm

I've read a lot about the 'streakiness' and 'randomness' (or not!) of our CC dice. And although I am very new to CC, I am not surprised to read such a lot of discussion of this subject, since we all have no choice but to hope that we all treated equally and fairly.

However, it is the nature of random things to behave in apparently bizarre ways, especially if one looks at a relatively small distribution of the statistics. Let me give you an example...

Many years ago I was a fool: I used to gamble on Roulette. I had studied statistics and come up with a cunning staking system that would limit my losses. It involved playing on up to three of the six available 'evens' bets. [RED or BLACK, ODD or EVEN, 1-18(LOW) or 19-36(HIGH).

-Is it not reasonable to expect that over a given time, the number of RED numbers should be very close to equalling the number of BLACK numbers?

Statistically the answer is yes, it is entirely reasonable.

But over any relatively small sample - let's say just one evening visit from the 100 in the year - what can seem like bizarre behaviour can and DOES occur !

I doubt that anyone reading this will believe the following sentence unless they have studied statistics; and even then this may be hard to take.

I have witnessed 44 consequetive RED numbers. I have witnessed 27 consequetive ODD numbers TWICE and I have witnessed 34 consequetive HIGH numbers.

But you know what? -Since installing this lovely little gadget called 'Dice Analyzer' my dice have been far more friendly that the crazy crap I got before!

by **zeros** on Fri Jan 30, 2009 8:25 am

I take it all back! Haha... The randomness has bitten me again, and badly!

No doubt we all have similar stories but for those of you who think the dice are against you, beat this if you can:

33 attackers against 5 defenders. No contest I hear you say.
-Think again! The outcome has me left with 2 and he still has 3 defenders intact! I lost 31 armies and still didn't win the territory!!!

Aah well, back to the drawing board...

by **sailorseal** on Sat Jan 31, 2009 10:19 am

Well what about 102 attackers and 20 defenders?
I was left with 3 he was left with 15

or 10 against 1
I lost all the way to 1

by **zeros** on Tue Feb 03, 2009 11:05 am

Yes sailorseal, 'randomness' is a difficult thing to accept sometimes!

by **yowzer14** on Tue Feb 03, 2009 3:34 pm

zeros wrote:Yes sailorseal, 'randomness' is a difficult thing to accept sometimes!

Good thing randomness only occurs randomly :oops:

by **coopa7434** on Thu Feb 05, 2009 4:51 pm

Is it possible to analyze the dice rolls on defense as well?

by **lancehoch** on Sat Feb 07, 2009 12:17 am

coopa7434 wrote:Is it possible to analyze the dice rolls on defense as well?

For the people defending against you? This is done within this script.
For your territories when someone is attacking you? I am not sure that is possible. If you were on at the same time as someone who was taking their turn, you could see the wins and losses, however I am not sure that it is possible for you to see the numbers on the "intensity cubes" for the times when someone else attacks.

by **Teflon Kris** on Sat Feb 07, 2009 5:38 am

I think the question refers to whether defending dice can be analysed when it is the opponents turn?

That way, it is possible to evaluate overall luckiness or unluckiness.

It's no good being sllghtly lucky if your opponent is extremely lucky!

by **Teflon Kris** on Sat Feb 07, 2009 6:01 am

It would also be useful if the analyser could show what dice are like on the first (often most crucial) move?

Plus, if the analyser could be expanded to a general luck analyser that would be great, showing how often you get to go first and how often you can cash spoils with just 3 (or 4).

Again, as with the above post, it would be handy to analyse this along with the same for opponents.

by **lancehoch** on Sat Feb 07, 2009 1:35 pm

Just so everyone is aware, the user who created this script has not logged in since July 20, 2008. It is not likely that any more advancements will be made unless one of the other script writers adopts this script.

by **a.sub** on Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:55 pm

thx lance but how do you use the script
i installed it and idk what to do from here

by **lancehoch** on Mon Mar 16, 2009 10:03 pm

a.sub wrote:thx lance but how do you use the script
i installed it and idk what to do from here

As long as it is active, there should be an option on the Personal Menu, below Referral Program that says Dice Analyzer. Click it and you will see your dice stats.

by **a.sub** on Mon Mar 16, 2009 10:11 pm

lancehoch wrote:
a.sub wrote:thx lance but how do you use the script
i installed it and idk what to do from here

As long as it is active, there should be an option on the Personal Menu, below Referral Program that says Dice Analyzer. Click it and you will see your dice stats.

ur right

i missed it sorry

by **tattooedude** on Fri Mar 27, 2009 12:42 am

i will track my dice if you want. Something is wrong, i have gone four rounds without winning a throw, lost 15 vs 1 battles, and the list goes on. Very frustrating.

by **lhcguy** on Tue Apr 07, 2009 4:55 am

Hi.. i have not read all the 20 pages, but i think there should also be an measurement of the streakiness of dices, since most users complain about too long streaks.

Can you please add some more information in the script?

I.e.:
% that a dice is the same as the dice before
% of all 3 dices in an attack role are the same?
% of all 2 dices in a defensive role are the same?
% of the outcome of a battle is the same as in the battle before? (win, tie, loose)

If you add those in your script, i can get the ideal numbers for you with some math.
This might shed light on the streakyness of the dices (although i believe it will simply show those people, that they are superstitious)

Thx

by **lancehoch** on Tue Apr 07, 2009 12:03 pm

lhcguy wrote:Hi.. i have not read all the 20 pages, but i think there should also be an measurement of the streakiness of dices, since most users complain about too long streaks.

Can you please add some more information in the script?

I.e.:
% that a dice is the same as the dice before
% of all 3 dices in an attack role are the same?
% of all 2 dices in a defensive role are the same?
% of the outcome of a battle is the same as in the battle before? (win, tie, loose)

If you add those in your script, i can get the ideal numbers for you with some math.
This might shed light on the streakyness of the dices (although i believe it will simply show those people, that they are superstitious)

Thx

The user who created this script has not visited CC in a while. It does not seem likely that he will make any changes to this script. One possibility is if another user decides to adopt the script, but I do not know how likely that is.

by **Kranberry** on Wed May 06, 2009 12:52 pm

I have a question about the odds. Where are people getting the odds for this and other scripts. I have created a spreadsheet that shows all the possible combinations of dice throws for 3v2. And according to dice analyzer the ideal win rate for 3v2 dice is ~37% of the time. I don't get this number. Mine is totally different...just wondering where people are getting their odds.

by **scottp** on Wed May 06, 2009 1:01 pm

here's one statistical analysis:

http://www.plainsboro.com/~lemke/risk/

there are a bunch if u google "risk dice odds"

by **Kranberry** on Wed May 06, 2009 1:34 pm

Thanks found a slight flaw in my logic and it has been fixed.

My bad...

by **Teflon Kris** on Mon Jul 27, 2009 8:54 am

What a coincidence that dice analyser disaappears then the dice are rediculous for game ... after game... after game

Seriously though- Any chance of defending dice analyser? And opponents dice analyser?

Without that there is no way of telling if you are being ripped-off? I'm sure many players use dice analyser to check there isnt a dice conspiracy against them

Oh, and card analyser too

Another potential use of dice analyser could be to compare results and dice - to do this it may need to be tweaked to show game dice and recent dice (although again, for a full picture, defending dice and opponents dice would be needed).

Just some ideas- nice tool though