## Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Individual game statistics have not worked for some time.
lancehoch

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

I know this is ah, rather late so to speak, but someone mentioned on page one that the CC dice are streaky.

That's because they are truly random. It's a common misconception that for something to be "random" it must be ABBBAABAABBBABABA or something like that. In a set of 10, with truly random dice, it's entirely possible to get straight B's or A's.

I just added this my user scripts. Wish I'd known about this yesterday. >.>;; Tossed a lot of dice between then and now.

Also, this is my very first post.

Aaaaand it looks like I necro'd it. D: Nooooo, I sowwie!

Ikalos

Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Jan 19, 2009 5:07 pm

### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

I've read a lot about the 'streakiness' and 'randomness' (or not!) of our CC dice. And although I am very new to CC, I am not surprised to read such a lot of discussion of this subject, since we all have no choice but to hope that we all treated equally and fairly.

However, it is the nature of random things to behave in apparently bizarre ways, especially if one looks at a relatively small distribution of the statistics. Let me give you an example...

Many years ago I was a fool: I used to gamble on Roulette. I had studied statistics and come up with a cunning staking system that would limit my losses. It involved playing on up to three of the six available 'evens' bets. [RED or BLACK, ODD or EVEN, 1-18(LOW) or 19-36(HIGH).

-Is it not reasonable to expect that over a given time, the number of RED numbers should be very close to equalling the number of BLACK numbers?

Statistically the answer is yes, it is entirely reasonable.

But over any relatively small sample - let's say just one evening visit from the 100 in the year - what can seem like bizarre behaviour can and DOES occur !

I doubt that anyone reading this will believe the following sentence unless they have studied statistics; and even then this may be hard to take.

I have witnessed 44 consequetive RED numbers. I have witnessed 27 consequetive ODD numbers TWICE and I have witnessed 34 consequetive HIGH numbers.

But you know what? -Since installing this lovely little gadget called 'Dice Analyzer' my dice have been far more friendly that the crazy crap I got before!

zeros

Posts: 32
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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

I take it all back! Haha... The randomness has bitten me again, and badly!

No doubt we all have similar stories but for those of you who think the dice are against you, beat this if you can:

33 attackers against 5 defenders. No contest I hear you say.
-Think again! The outcome has me left with 2 and he still has 3 defenders intact! I lost 31 armies and still didn't win the territory!!!

Aah well, back to the drawing board...

zeros

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Well what about 102 attackers and 20 defenders?
I was left with 3 he was left with 15

or 10 against 1
I lost all the way to 1

sailorseal

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Yes sailorseal, 'randomness' is a difficult thing to accept sometimes!

zeros

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

zeros wrote:Yes sailorseal, 'randomness' is a difficult thing to accept sometimes!

Good thing randomness only occurs randomly
yowzer14

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Is it possible to analyze the dice rolls on defense as well?
coopa7434

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Joined: Fri Jun 13, 2008 4:11 pm
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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

coopa7434 wrote:Is it possible to analyze the dice rolls on defense as well?

For the people defending against you? This is done within this script.
For your territories when someone is attacking you? I am not sure that is possible. If you were on at the same time as someone who was taking their turn, you could see the wins and losses, however I am not sure that it is possible for you to see the numbers on the "intensity cubes" for the times when someone else attacks.
lancehoch

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

I think the question refers to whether defending dice can be analysed when it is the opponents turn?

That way, it is possible to evaluate overall luckiness or unluckiness.

It's no good being sllghtly lucky if your opponent is extremely lucky!

Teflon Kris

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

It would also be useful if the analyser could show what dice are like on the first (often most crucial) move?

Plus, if the analyser could be expanded to a general luck analyser that would be great, showing how often you get to go first and how often you can cash spoils with just 3 (or 4).

Again, as with the above post, it would be handy to analyse this along with the same for opponents.

Teflon Kris

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Just so everyone is aware, the user who created this script has not logged in since July 20, 2008. It is not likely that any more advancements will be made unless one of the other script writers adopts this script.
lancehoch

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

thx lance but how do you use the script
i installed it and idk what to do from here

a.sub

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

a.sub wrote:thx lance but how do you use the script
i installed it and idk what to do from here

As long as it is active, there should be an option on the Personal Menu, below Referral Program that says Dice Analyzer. Click it and you will see your dice stats.
lancehoch

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

lancehoch wrote:
a.sub wrote:thx lance but how do you use the script
i installed it and idk what to do from here

As long as it is active, there should be an option on the Personal Menu, below Referral Program that says Dice Analyzer. Click it and you will see your dice stats.

ur right
i missed it sorry

a.sub

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

i will track my dice if you want. Something is wrong, i have gone four rounds without winning a throw, lost 15 vs 1 battles, and the list goes on. Very frustrating.

tattooedude

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Hi.. i have not read all the 20 pages, but i think there should also be an measurement of the streakiness of dices, since most users complain about too long streaks.

I.e.:
% that a dice is the same as the dice before
% of all 3 dices in an attack role are the same?
% of all 2 dices in a defensive role are the same?
% of the outcome of a battle is the same as in the battle before? (win, tie, loose)

If you add those in your script, i can get the ideal numbers for you with some math.
This might shed light on the streakyness of the dices (although i believe it will simply show those people, that they are superstitious)

Thx
lhcguy

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

lhcguy wrote:Hi.. i have not read all the 20 pages, but i think there should also be an measurement of the streakiness of dices, since most users complain about too long streaks.

I.e.:
% that a dice is the same as the dice before
% of all 3 dices in an attack role are the same?
% of all 2 dices in a defensive role are the same?
% of the outcome of a battle is the same as in the battle before? (win, tie, loose)

If you add those in your script, i can get the ideal numbers for you with some math.
This might shed light on the streakyness of the dices (although i believe it will simply show those people, that they are superstitious)

Thx

The user who created this script has not visited CC in a while. It does not seem likely that he will make any changes to this script. One possibility is if another user decides to adopt the script, but I do not know how likely that is.
lancehoch

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

I have a question about the odds. Where are people getting the odds for this and other scripts. I have created a spreadsheet that shows all the possible combinations of dice throws for 3v2. And according to dice analyzer the ideal win rate for 3v2 dice is ~37% of the time. I don't get this number. Mine is totally different...just wondering where people are getting their odds.
Kranberry

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

here's one statistical analysis:

http://www.plainsboro.com/~lemke/risk/

there are a bunch if u google "risk dice odds"

scottp

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Thanks found a slight flaw in my logic and it has been fixed. My bad...
Kranberry

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

What a coincidence that dice analyser disaappears then the dice are rediculous for game ... after game... after game

Seriously though- Any chance of defending dice analyser? And opponents dice analyser?

Without that there is no way of telling if you are being ripped-off? I'm sure many players use dice analyser to check there isnt a dice conspiracy against them

Oh, and card analyser too

Another potential use of dice analyser could be to compare results and dice - to do this it may need to be tweaked to show game dice and recent dice (although again, for a full picture, defending dice and opponents dice would be needed).

Just some ideas- nice tool though

Teflon Kris

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Is dice analyzer disabled? Tried to download and getting a script error.,

istanbul39

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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

Why does this appear in the top of my dice analyzer:

Thanks.

DuGa

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Joined: Tue Jun 16, 2009 7:02 pm
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### Re: Dice analyzer 1.5.1a, 1.5.1b and 1.5.1c

How many million dice need to be thrown before it is statistically impossible to have less than ideal dice?

Teflon Kris

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