Aries wrote:Does anyone know how it calculates the strength statistic?
The original Conquer Club script by Tr0y calculates it as follows:
s = a + p - (2/3 * c)
where
s is strength
a is the number of armies currently held by a player
p is the potential armies gained for next turn
c is the number of countries currently held by a player
the - (2/3 * c) expression represents the notion of dispersion of your forces. In other words, it is generally better (i.e., of higher strength) to have more armies on fewer countries than to have fewer armies on more countries.
potential armies is the sum of armies due for holding a number of countries (at least three, with an additional army added for each multiple of 3 over 11 countries held) and any continent bonuses due.
The Conquer Club - Roberts Mods (by stocksr) calculates it as follows (this is the answer to the question you asked):
s = a + e - (2/3 * c)
where
e is the number of expected armies gained for next turn.
It includes the potential armies described above and additionally factors in an estimate of the number of armies due in the next turn because of cashing in a card set.
The calculation for the size of the card bonus is calculated as follows:
(probability of having a card set to cash) * (value of cashing a card set).
For the case of an escalating card game the probability of having a card set to cash is calculated as follows:
p(0 - 2) = 0
p(3) = .3341
p(4) = .778
p(5) = 1
where p(n) is the probability of having a card set to cash when the player holds n cards.
The value of cashing a card set is known in an escalating game.
For the case of a flat rate card game the same probabilities of having a card set as the escalating case are used.
The value of cashing a card set is estimated at 7 (which is approximately (4 + 6 + 10) / 3) since the value of the set cannot be determined without knowing the color composition of the set cashed.
In this thread I make a proposal for calculating the armies due next turn (in a flat rate game) using slightly different probabilities and taking into consideration the 2 army per country bonus one gets for owning the country specified on the card cashed:
http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=15620