Luck...

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Luck...

Postby luigidelhaytero on Sat Jun 22, 2013 7:10 am

anyone got a good strategy for myself, i regularly lose rolls, guaranteed to lose when its an even number each side, and pretty much always when i even have 9 and the one i'm attacking has 2, useless dice, i know there's no strategy against luck. just fancied moaning.
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Re: Luck...

Postby stotzi on Sat Jun 22, 2013 8:07 am

This surely sucks and everyone of us knows these situations! As you are very new, I will write down some ways you can keep luck-influence under control (NOT in a single game, but in a large quantity it should even out):
1. Play team games - it is seldom so that all 4 players from team A are lucky while the other 4 aren't --> so luck evens far more out in team games, the more players the better
2. Learn "special" maps, where strategy is very important (Stalingrad, Poison Rome etc.)
3. Stop rolling: Always think: What does a 1:1 bring for me and my foe, what does a 0:2 bring for me and my move. There will be a point when stopping to roll is the optimum decision
4. Become an expert for certain settings, e.g. by joining the SoC-academy, where you will learn a lot about escalating games and terminator games.
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Re: Luck...

Postby trevor33 on Mon Jun 24, 2013 12:28 am

Luck is a state of mind.
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Re: Luck...

Postby macbone on Mon Jun 24, 2013 5:34 am

Luigi, I took a look at your dice stats, and it looks like you're often rolling when the odds are against you. In general, it's best to roll when you have 4+ troops in one territory, except for 3v1, and even then, ask yourself if you can wait a turn and add 1 more to make that a 4v1 (see elsewhere in this forum the relative merits of attacking with 3v1 dice or waiting). Don't roll the same number of dice or fewer than your opponent - so if you only have 3 troops in one territory, don't attack another territory that has 2+ troops in it unless you're desperate (e.g. you could eliminate someone in terminator or for spoils, say - there are times to roll, but in most situations, you should wait).

This is from your dice stats on your profile:

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You haven't played a lot of games yet, so the more you play, the more you'll see your luck even out. You've apparently been pretty lucky in your 1v1 rolls (you have 2, the other guy has 1). You really shouldn't be rolling those, and stay away from the 2v1 and 1v2 as well.

Here's a breakdown of expected odds:

Attacker: one die; Defender: one die:

Attacker wins 15 out of 36 (41.67 %)
Defender wins 21 out of 36 (58.33 %)


Attacker: two dice; Defender: one die:

Attacker wins 125 out of 216 (57.87 %)
Defender wins 91 out of 216 (42.13 %)


Attacker: three dice; Defender: one die:

Attacker wins 855 out of 1296 (65.97 %)
Defender wins 441 out of 1296 (34.03 %)


Attacker: one die; Defender: two dice:

Attacker wins 55 out of 216 (25.46 %)
Defender wins 161 out of 216 (74.54 %)


Attacker: two dice; Defender: two dice:

Attacker wins both: 295 out of 1296 (22.76 %)
Defender wins both: 581 out of 1296 (44.83 %)
Both win one: 420 out of 1296 (32.41 %)


Attacker: three dice; Defender: two dice:

Attacker wins both: 2890 out of 7776 (37.17 %)
Defender wins both: 2275 out of 7776 (29.26 %)
Both win one: 2611 out of 7776 (33.58 %)


Source: http://www.plainsboro.com/~lemke/risk/

As you can see, attacking 4+ vs. 1 (three attacker dice, one defender die) gives you the best odds, followed by 4+ vs. 2+ (three attacker, two defender), followed by 3 v 1 (two vs. one). Avoid rolling 3v2 (two vs. two), 2v2 (one vs. two), and 2v1 (one vs. one).

If you haven't picked up the Assault Odds add-on yet, you can find it in the Tools and Enhancements forum, along with some other nifty add-ons to help improve your CC experience.
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Re: Luck...

Postby AyeTrain on Mon Jun 24, 2013 10:24 am

See everything that macbone said. My rule-of-thumb is that I need twice as many attackers as defenders to expect to win. If I remember correctly, the defender advantage goes down with the number of troops involved, though, so you are more likely to win a 100 v 100 battle than a 10 v 10. In any case, until you get to very high numbers I would only attack if you have twice as many as the defender (3x if you want to guarantee the win). Even then, before you start attacking, set a minimum threshold: you will stop attacking when you troop count drops to x number of troops. Sometimes you are lucky and sometimes the defender is: the key to victory is to good strategy that allows for the variance of luck.
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Re: Luck...

Postby Jippd on Mon Jun 24, 2013 4:17 pm

The 2x the number of the troops is a good general rule of thumb for a guaranteed win but not a good game play rule of thumb IMO.

If you only assault stacks or go for kills when you have 2x the number of troops as your opponent you will lose games because you are missing opportunities.

Look at a 10 v 6 assault. It is 80% to win. Would you not make this assault because it is only 66% more troops and not 100% more than your attacker? Doing so means someone else will try the assault succeed and take the win.

When I first started on this site I used the 2x attacking troops rule of thumb and found it often resulted in me waiting to long and missing chances to take the win because I didn't have that magical 2x the troop number.
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Re: Luck...

Postby Dukasaur on Mon Jun 24, 2013 9:46 pm

If you're running Firefox, use the Assault Odds calculator and get precise odds for the attack path you're planning.

But if for whatever reason you need to use a simple rule-of-thumb, here's the one I always used: Troops needed = Number of Enemy Troops + Number of Enemy Terts + 4.

2X is too many.
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Re: Luck...

Postby iAmCaffeine on Tue Jun 25, 2013 5:06 am

There are also situations where it's advantageous to attack against the odds, in 1v1 games at least. If losing seems imminent then you may as well try whatever you can and the dice might magically go your way.

However, I mean this as an actual strategy. If you're opponent has a couple of large stacks which both need to be dealt with and your stacks aren't in a position to do anything, split your deploy and hit your enemy's stacks. You'll at least take a few armies off, if not get lucky and win the battle.

This is especially useful in foggy trench games.
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Re: Luck...

Postby AyeTrain on Tue Jun 25, 2013 12:56 pm

2x is a rule of thumb, meaning there are lots of exceptions. As macbone pointed out, the OP has been doing lots of attacks where the odds of success were way out of his favor, so he needs to understand that winning battles consistently requires significantly more troops than the defender. Thus the 2x rule. Certainly there are many occasions when you should attack 10 v 6, etc. But if you are attacking a fortified position and must win it, you should wait for 2x or something close to that.

I like to keep a reserve behind the lines, usually adding two to it every turn. That allows me to take the risk of a 10 v 6 or 14 v 8: if I lose all, I reinforce from the reserve. If the defender lost none, sometimes they don't even know they were attacked!
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Re: Luck...

Postby Jippd on Tue Jun 25, 2013 9:33 pm

AyeTrain wrote:But if you are attacking a fortified position and must win it, you should wait for 2x or something close to that.


If you MUST win the assault I don't get why you would wait for 2x the troops? IE if your up and have a 25 v 20 to take out a player with 5 cards would you not try that assault? If you don't odds are likely the player following you could cash and kill that player resulting in you losing the game.

I would say 2x the troops is warranted maybe 10-20% of the time if that.
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Re: Luck...

Postby AyeTrain on Wed Jun 26, 2013 8:43 am

Jippd wrote:
AyeTrain wrote:But if you are attacking a fortified position and must win it, you should wait for 2x or something close to that.


If you MUST win the assault I don't get why you would wait for 2x the troops? IE if your up and have a 25 v 20 to take out a player with 5 cards would you not try that assault? If you don't odds are likely the player following you could cash and kill that player resulting in you losing the game.

I would say 2x the troops is warranted maybe 10-20% of the time if that.


Yes, in that situation I would try it. If the alternative is losing the game then any odds are worth it. I meant a situation where you must win or you will be left vulnerable, such as when trying to take a chokepoint, or when launching the first assault of what you expect will be a major war. Part of your tactical assessment should be the question of what happens if you lose, and if that is unacceptable, you'll need to wait for overwhelming superiority, such that you can be nearly certain of success.
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Re: Luck...

Postby corrupteddrake on Tue Jul 09, 2013 3:27 pm

Geez this will really save me lots of troops. I have been using 2x until now.
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Re: Luck...

Postby corrupteddrake on Tue Jul 09, 2013 6:22 pm

I was just reading further about this online, after reading this post.
According to a number of places the best stat for invading is 1.5 * number of armys + number of territory.
I don't know if this is true, but lots of place seem to agree.
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Re: Luck...

Postby EricPhail on Thu Jul 18, 2013 4:27 pm

Having a bad run of late much to my annoyance felt the need to share

Click image to enlarge.
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The shouldn't really be used rolls (2v2, 2v1, 1v2, 1v1) are there because I not getting conquests with the good ones (3v2,3v1) and needed spoils (didn't help much mind) the one that made me post this was 6 on 1 (99% likely) that failed much to my annoyance (and likely consequental doom next turn)

/rant

Feeling a bit better now
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Re: Luck...

Postby Ghost0204 on Tue Jul 23, 2013 11:22 pm

Too much luck involved in CC - seen several examples already today where I had a 13v3 and lost 10 and stopped, whereas they go 5v8 and win without losing one. Then there's the great 9v1 I lost earlier today as well. Generators are never unbiased.
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