Battle Royale Stats
Posted: Tue Apr 10, 2007 2:51 pmI dedicate this post to Robinette....
I've seen a few discussions about how many points the winner of the latest battle royale will have. Many have said that person would automatically be #1 on the scoreboard and would have over 4000 points. Well, I don't think that's quite true.
To calculate this, I assumed that every private in the game has 900 point, every other rank is exactly in the middle of their point range (ie a major has 1800 points) and every general has 3100 points. I think those are relatively close to the average scores of all the players in the game, though perhaps the total is a bit higher than it should be (because I doubt the average colonel actually has 2500 points)...but that slightly higher total is a good thing because as the game continues the average score in the game will probably continue to rise.
I didn't use the exact scores of each player since they are always changing. I think taking the average for each rank is a much more practical approach.
After putting in the current points for every player in the game, I projected the score total for each possible winner, starting at a person with 50 points, and moving up in increments of 50 to 4200 points (roughly the highest score ever reached on CC).
The resulting data is fairly interesting in my opinion. The maximum in total expected points after the game would be if someone with around 150 points wins it. This is because of the 100 point limit on points that can be gained from each player. Since every score below 150 or so points would get 100 from every player, 150 is the max because he/she would start with more.
The minimum in the graph is actually in the score range where I think the final winner will come from. If the winner has between 1400 and 2600 points, they will finish just below 4000 total (the lowest projection I have is 3814). So currently the winner of the battle royale will be #1 on the scoreboard, but Blitz has previously been 400 points higher than that so depending on who is #1 at the time a player may gain 1500-2500 points for a single game and still not be #1.
After the minimum, the expected total score begins to rise again. This is because in the very high range the point gains are relatively the same, so the total score is much closer to the starting score. This portion of the graph is relatively linear, but would eventually flatten out as the point gains become minimal compared to the players initial amount of points (however that wouldn't happen until the 7000 point range or so I think).
So there you have it. A strictly time-wasting analysis put together by one of your friendly stat gurus on the predicted score of the eventually winner of Battle Royale 3. When that game ends, we'll have to check and see just how close I was!
Edit- I don't know why the image is so small. Imageshack.us must be shrinking it because I doubled the size on my comp and it didn't get any bigger. You can still get the idea though.
I've seen a few discussions about how many points the winner of the latest battle royale will have. Many have said that person would automatically be #1 on the scoreboard and would have over 4000 points. Well, I don't think that's quite true.
To calculate this, I assumed that every private in the game has 900 point, every other rank is exactly in the middle of their point range (ie a major has 1800 points) and every general has 3100 points. I think those are relatively close to the average scores of all the players in the game, though perhaps the total is a bit higher than it should be (because I doubt the average colonel actually has 2500 points)...but that slightly higher total is a good thing because as the game continues the average score in the game will probably continue to rise.
I didn't use the exact scores of each player since they are always changing. I think taking the average for each rank is a much more practical approach.
After putting in the current points for every player in the game, I projected the score total for each possible winner, starting at a person with 50 points, and moving up in increments of 50 to 4200 points (roughly the highest score ever reached on CC).
The resulting data is fairly interesting in my opinion. The maximum in total expected points after the game would be if someone with around 150 points wins it. This is because of the 100 point limit on points that can be gained from each player. Since every score below 150 or so points would get 100 from every player, 150 is the max because he/she would start with more.
The minimum in the graph is actually in the score range where I think the final winner will come from. If the winner has between 1400 and 2600 points, they will finish just below 4000 total (the lowest projection I have is 3814). So currently the winner of the battle royale will be #1 on the scoreboard, but Blitz has previously been 400 points higher than that so depending on who is #1 at the time a player may gain 1500-2500 points for a single game and still not be #1.
After the minimum, the expected total score begins to rise again. This is because in the very high range the point gains are relatively the same, so the total score is much closer to the starting score. This portion of the graph is relatively linear, but would eventually flatten out as the point gains become minimal compared to the players initial amount of points (however that wouldn't happen until the 7000 point range or so I think).
So there you have it. A strictly time-wasting analysis put together by one of your friendly stat gurus on the predicted score of the eventually winner of Battle Royale 3. When that game ends, we'll have to check and see just how close I was!
Edit- I don't know why the image is so small. Imageshack.us must be shrinking it because I doubled the size on my comp and it didn't get any bigger. You can still get the idea though.
. Now she's been doing more work then me so I have to start this kind of stuff up again just to make her happy, lol.
