Conquer Club

Has anyone calculated the odds of 3 dice vs. two with tieing winning. I'm curious. Last time I tried I think I got that a defender was likely to win 55% of the time.

What do you guys think?

http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache:7D7 ... =firefox-a

Looks good in theory sully but on this site its 16% as per dice analyser stats for all players

jaseleo wrote:Looks good in theory sully but on this site its 16% as per dice analyser stats for all players

Thats the chance of each number on the die coming up (theres a 1 in 6 chance that any number comes up, basic probability)

What I posted were the chances of winning or losing an attack for every combination of dice possible.

I still think the dice are rigged.

unriggable.

God255 wrote:I still think the dice are rigged.

get dice analyzer. better yet, if u don't trust comp programs at all, just keep a running list of ur win's and losses, every time u attack 3 vs. 2 add a "A" to a list if u win both "B" if each person lost an army and "C" if u lost two armies. and at the end of the week look at ur list. i guarentee it'll look pretty random.

Exactly sully you can go to anywhere and do a roll test and the odds will look good what im saying is that at CC you will find that everybody who has played over 150 games with the dice analyser installed will have a 16% ratio on every dice they roll

100 divided by 6 dice = 16 = dice analyserstats which means that your rolls are picked before you roll them.

It is the same for everyone.

This proves that it is not random and that somehow somewhere within all the programing of this site and random. org its built to do that so everyone is equal some people know when to stop others dont and that is the difference between the ranks.

If you think im wrong pm me

Dice dont come from a RNG?

The dice aren't random! The whole thing is generated towards me losing all my points.

thanks for the stats sulli. I've always wondered. They are quite a bit different than I thought they would be.

jaseleo wrote:Exactly sully you can go to anywhere and do a roll test and the odds will look good what im saying is that at CC you will find that everybody who has played over 150 games with the dice analyser installed will have a 16% ratio on every dice they roll

100 divided by 6 dice = 16 = dice analyserstats which means that your rolls are picked before you roll them.

It is the same for everyone.

This proves that it is not random and that somehow somewhere within all the programing of this site and random. org its built to do that so everyone is equal some people know when to stop others dont and that is the difference between the ranks.

If you think im wrong pm me

I'll just post here instead of PMing

Yes, in the very long term (thousands of dice) everyones dice analyzer will read close to 16.67% for each die. But that is how basic probability works! If there is a 1 in 6 chance of each number coming up, then in the long term they will each appear in equal amounts.

This is how real dice function, and this is how the dice on CC function. It must be said that no random number generated can be considered 100% random, since it is programmed by humans. Any rng is programmed to simulate probability based on that statistical distribution you would see in a real world example such as rolling a die.

High ranks don't get there because they are able to predict what type of roll will come up next. No one can do that! The high ranking players get to the top because they understand the strategy of the game. If you played the same people on a table top game with physical dice, they would win just as often in the long term.

sully800 wrote:

jaseleo wrote:Exactly sully you can go to anywhere and do a roll test and the odds will look good what im saying is that at CC you will find that everybody who has played over 150 games with the dice analyser installed will have a 16% ratio on every dice they roll

100 divided by 6 dice = 16 = dice analyserstats which means that your rolls are picked before you roll them.

It is the same for everyone.

This proves that it is not random and that somehow somewhere within all the programing of this site and random. org its built to do that so everyone is equal some people know when to stop others dont and that is the difference between the ranks.

If you think im wrong pm me

I'll just post here instead of PMing

Yes, in the very long term (thousands of dice) everyones dice analyzer will read close to 16.67% for each die. But that is how basic probability works! If there is a 1 in 6 chance of each number coming up, then in the long term they will each appear in equal amounts.

This is how real dice function, and this is how the dice on CC function. It must be said that no random number generated can be considered 100% random, since it is programmed by humans. Any rng is programmed to simulate probability based on that statistical distribution you would see in a real world example such as rolling a die.

High ranks don't get there because they are able to predict what type of roll will come up next. No one can do that! The high ranking players get to the top because they understand the strategy of the game. If you played the same people on a table top game with physical dice, they would win just as often in the long term.

Concur for the most part, except (1) the random.org RNG is theoretically random (if atmospheric noise is random) and not pseudorandom, because the numbers are not computer-generated, and (2) there appear to be some flaws, because the numbers coming from random.org are not simply used once and discarded, but reused and maybe in a faulty manner. I think the effects are (1) a freezing of the probabilities inherent in the original sample (so a small, but semi-permanent deviation from 16-1/6% for each outcome), and (2) an tendency to increase in streakiness (could go either way) on a 13-hour cyclical basis (i.e., the time it takes to pass through the dice file, but I would imagine not very significant until the last 5 minutes of each cycle, which is still 1% of the time).

The difference is sully that the dice here are equationed for everybody to have 16.66%

90% of the time the attacking dice is way higher than the defender but still the attacker loses against nothing

we can roll 7 v 1 thats
4 x 3 v 1

1 x 2 v 1

1 x 1 v 1

the odds of the attacker losing are unreal but it is happening constantly

Nobody spikes ie somewhere 1 person on this site may lose 90% of his 5's but win 70% of his 6's

BUT NO EVERYBODY IS THE SAME??

God255 wrote:I still think the dice are rigged.

O Rly? I also saw this:

Rank: Private
Score: 986

Anyone notice a pattern?