Conquer Club

I've often heard it said in CC forums, typically when discussing the outcome of a poll on a particularly contentious topic, that "you only have x votes out of the pitifully small proportion of members who bother to participate in the forums ... so the poll is meaningless" or words to much that effect.

There are quite a few variables that illuminate the validity of that comment, but in a moment of idleness I was curious enough to consider what the statistics were for "the pitifully small proportion of members who bother to participate in the forums" were.

I arbitrarily chose 20 posts or more to indicate that a particular member "participated in the forums" to a meaningful extent and counted 3106 users with that many posts, or more, out of our 282,418 total members. As a percentage that's almost exactly 1.1%.

Applying that percentage to the number of active users - currently there are about 20,000 on the scoreboard - suggests that there are about 220 such members. That sounds unbelievably - yes, "pitifully" - small!!.

Any thoughts? Comments?
Corrections to my calculations?

wow i thought it would be small but not that small
to bad hu

Stephen Wayne wrote:wow i thought it would be small but not that small

Indeed.
I think that the numbers are likely to be slightly higher since those members who participate more in the forums would seem likely to maintain their membership for longer. Perhaps the percentage of currently active users - ie the 20,000 on the scoreboard - is actually higher than 1.1% ...

But then 2.2% or even 4.4% would still only be 440 or 880 active forum users respectively ... and that seems to be stretching the proportions to fit ...

To think that only 220/440 members can create so much 'interesting and thought provoking' content.

cicero wrote:I've often heard it said in CC forums, typically when discussing the outcome of a poll on a particularly contentious topic, that "you only have x votes out of the pitifully small proportion of members who bother to participate in the forums ... so the poll is meaningless" or words to much that effect.

There are quite a few variables that illuminate the validity of that comment, but in a moment of idleness I was curious enough to consider what the statistics were for "the pitifully small proportion of members who bother to participate in the forums" were.

I arbitrarily chose 20 posts or more to indicate that a particular member "participated in the forums" to a meaningful extent and counted 3106 users with that many posts, or more, out of our 282,418 total members. As a percentage that's almost exactly 1.1%.

Applying that percentage to the number of active users - currently there are about 20,000 on the scoreboard - suggests that there are about 220 such members. That sounds unbelievably - yes, "pitifully" - small!!.

Any thoughts? Comments?
Corrections to my calculations?

I would say there are more active forum members and would suggest that those who use the forum are more likely to stick around out of all the total members that decide to sign up for the website play one game, deadbeat and never come back.

In fact if you click everyones names in the top 250 and examine their post count , you will discover that almost all of them will have more than 20 posts... and that is not counting usergroup activity too.

I read a lot, just don't post to often

frankiebee wrote:I read a lot, just don't post to often

thats rare that there

cicero wrote:I've often heard it said in CC forums, typically when discussing the outcome of a poll on a particularly contentious topic, that "you only have x votes out of the pitifully small proportion of members who bother to participate in the forums ... so the poll is meaningless" or words to much that effect.

This is a fallacious argument. Not attacking you cicero, just pointing out that it is a typical argument that doesn't actually hold much water.
Making this particular argument... well... apply it to US elections

There are quite a few variables that illuminate the validity of that comment, but in a moment of idleness I was curious enough to consider what the statistics were for "the pitifully small proportion of members who bother to participate in the forums" were.

I arbitrarily chose 20 posts or more to indicate that a particular member "participated in the forums" to a meaningful extent and counted 3106 users with that many posts, or more, out of our 282,418 total members. As a percentage that's almost exactly 1.1%.

A decent method of deciding upon people who participate, though the 20 is abritrary. It does seem a reasonable number though. Measuring it against total users is subject to error though.

Applying that percentage to the number of active users - currently there are about 20,000 on the scoreboard - suggests that there are about 220 such members. That sounds unbelievably - yes, "pitifully" - small!!.

Any thoughts? Comments?
Corrections to my calculations?

This is where it is somewhat incorrect. There are, for arguments sake, 20000 users, and for arguments sake, 3000 forum participants. Over the 2-3 years CC has been around, I would say that 1000 of those participants have moved on (thought that is an arbitrary estimate). Of the 20000 users, about 8500 are 1000 points or less, and most players of that score are not regular players, so not only do they not take part in forums, but they rarely take part in games. Of the remaining 11500, probably 500 are non-regular users (?s) that have managed a single win or two.

So, you have about 2000 regular forum visitors, and about 11000 regular site-users, putting the percent of forum users at about 18-19% of the total population of regular site-users.

Mind you, the vast majority of this is arbitrary estimates. I would think that would be the best way to approach the problem though.

I think 18-19% turnout is pretty good. The primary attraction of the site is the games.

e_i_pi wrote:

cicero wrote:I've often heard it said in CC forums, typically when discussing the outcome of a poll on a particularly contentious topic, that "you only have x votes out of the pitifully small proportion of members who bother to participate in the forums ... so the poll is meaningless" or words to much that effect.

This is a fallacious argument.

For the record, I agree .

e_i_pi wrote:There are, for arguments sake, 20000 users, and for arguments sake, 3000 forum participants. Over the 2-3 years CC has been around, I would say that 1000 of those participants have moved on (thought that is an arbitrary estimate). Of the 20000 users, about 8500 are 1000 points or less, and most players of that score are not regular players, so not only do they not take part in forums, but they rarely take part in games. Of the remaining 11500, probably 500 are non-regular users (?s) that have managed a single win or two.

So, you have about 2000 regular forum visitors, and about 11000 regular site-users, putting the percent of forum users at about 18-19% of the total population of regular site-users.

Mind you, the vast majority of this is arbitrary estimates. I would think that would be the best way to approach the problem though.

I think 18-19% turnout is pretty good. The primary attraction of the site is the games.

Thanks e_i_pi for your thoughts. The one time I attempt some statistics it turns out that arbitrary guess work is a better method ...

The numbers you arbitrarily come up with do indeed seem more in tune with what I'd have guessed intuitively .

i feel like the number of quality posters is very limited, but i'd bet that at least 3 or 4 times that many people read the forums, post in usergroups, or use live chat.

LC users definitely don't always check the forums, and vice versa.

cicero wrote:Thanks e_i_pi for your thoughts. The one time I attempt some statistics it turns out that arbitrary guess work is a better method ...

The numbers you arbitrarily come up with do indeed seem more in tune with what I'd have guessed intuitively .

Hehe, don't worry cicero, you're talking about a strain of maths that is very wishy washy. What you want to be looking at is order of error, which in this case is immeasurable, and trend forecasting which... well we all saw how well that worked for the credit industry recently

Your stats are fine, but if you want to go into it further I would look at these sorts of improvements:
Sliding scale of posts over time... minimum 1 post per week overall, 2 posts per week recently, means a regular forum member for example.
Deciding whether or not to count private forum posts
Number of forum users on particular forums (try putting a poll in Q&A, see how many votes you get)
and probably a bunch of other things, but it's 6:40am here and I'm about to finish my shift

no way it is just under 20%, i'd have to agree more with cicero's original guess of under 3%... when i first joined CC i was warned to stay out of the forums by my friends that got me involved and got me premium. i poked around, read the forums when i was bored, shook my head at some of the stuff going on, and then braved the waters after a few months. yeah, i got beat up and trashed and smacked down by the regulars, but i stuck it out and have come to really enjoy all the quirks of all the different forums and their regular posters. when my friends saw that i was posting, they were flabberghasted that i was now a "forum regular" and teased me. sure enough, they all eventually put their toes in and now also enjoy the forums to some degree. anyway, i think a lot more users may pop in to read some strategy or lack's updates, etc, but i doubt they are regulars that post. i'd have to go with easily under 3%... think about it, how often do you see a post and know that the poster is not a regular in the forum you are visiting, and how often do you see them again? anyway, interesting thread, and i agree with C's original guess...-6cd

owenshooter wrote:think about it, how often do you see a post and know that the poster is not a regular in the forum you are visiting, and how often do you see them again?-6cd

thats such a good point. and i'm glad to see you back in the forums after a couple days of being away (if my stalking abilities are still up to par...)

We could say that more active users are likely to be posting. The maxim of course would be all of the 3,000 being active. That would be 15% of the 20,000 active. Now it's not likely that all those with 20 posts are of the group of active players, but now we can say that our range is probably between your 1.1% and 15%. Perhaps it would be closer to the middle, maybe 5% to 10%. Also there was the comment of the guy who reads but doesn't post. If there are more quiet people than people who actually post, then we could have 2 or 3 times the number of those who post, which could be 10% to 30%. I'm giving a wide range because these are estimates and based somewhat on speculation, but they seem plausible. So I think the numbers could be significantly higher than the 1.1%.

Georgerx7di wrote: If there are more quiet people than people who actually post, then we could have 2 or 3 times the number of those who post, which could be 10% to 30%.

there is absolutely no way the numbers are that high even if people browse adn don't post. i bet you could scroll through the top 25 threads in each forum, follow them to their conclusion, and know who the regular posters are in that forum. hell, stephen wayne is new to the GD, one of the few NEW REGULAR posters, and how many people here already know him? if 10-20% of all users were in these forums, you would be able to physically see them posting and participating or if they were silent even browsing at the bottom. i see the same people posting and being involved in all the sections of the forums i visit regularly and there is no way they are 10-20% of the entire CC population...-6cd

i would like to see statistics on players in specfic forums... IE how many players have 20+ in GD, callouts, tournaments, foundry, ect. Just for curiosity sake

i think i have 20+ in:

GD, Tournaments, Callouts (including clans and clan challenges), maybe suggs and bugs?, in every sub-forum of the map foundry, and off topics.

thats really not that much....

oh, and i just remembered that time that VI posted some anti-bpb hate thread that got moved to FW, and i might have gotten up to 20 in that one...

Natewolfman wrote:i would like to see statistics on players in specfic forums... IE how many players have 20+ in GD, callouts, tournaments, foundry, ect. Just for curiosity sake

Well, that is interesting. I have over 100 posts in tournaments, but I believe that 95+ of them were in the one tournament that I ran. I also have some differing feelings about the definition of a "forum regular". I have over 2400 posts, but a lot of them are in Closed Reports (about 700). I do not think that I actually qualify as a forum regular, I mean I post, but I read and lurk most of the time.

whitestazn88 wrote:i feel like the number of quality posters is very limited, but i'd bet that at least 3 or 4 times that many people read the forums, post in usergroups, or use live chat.

LC users definitely don't always check the forums, and vice versa.

Absolutely right. And I'd also guess that the majority of the posters put many off from joining in on the forums. Seriously, 90% of the posts are either a massive circle-jerk or stupid cheating accusations. Who really wants to get involved in that?

I am a regular player however as the time i have been on the site has gone by i have found the forums to get worse as each month goes by, as soon as a new player comes into the forums as owenshooter said he got beat up trashed and smacked down and this is the biggest problem that you have. The majority of players on CC have things to say some that benefit the site and some that dont and also things that have been said before, but in each case there is always one/many swarmy person who thinks he has the right to slag someone down ridicule them and put them off coming back and even leaving the site.

So to all you veteran Noobs who cant resist smacking someone down start to let people welcome to the forums and remember they are here for everyone not just you.

my posts:Joined: Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:00 pm
Total posts:
162 | Search user’s posts
(0.01% of all posts / 0.23 posts per day)

coming up to 2 years 162 posts but i read just about every topic that is covered apart from flame wars

No doubt Mr swarmy will post shortly after

jaseleo wrote:I am a regular player however as the time i have been on the site has gone by i have found the forums to get worse as each month goes by, as soon as a new player comes into the forums as owenshooter said he got beat up trashed and smacked down and this is the biggest problem that you have. The majority of players on CC have things to say some that benefit the site and some that dont and also things that have been said before, but in each case there is always one/many swarmy person who thinks he has the right to slag someone down ridicule them and put them off coming back and even leaving the site.

So to all you veteran Noobs who cant resist smacking someone down start to let people welcome to the forums and remember they are here for everyone not just you.

my posts:Joined: Fri Jan 12, 2007 9:00 pm
Total posts:
162 | Search user’s posts
(0.01% of all posts / 0.23 posts per day)

coming up to 2 years 162 posts but i read just about every topic that is covered apart from flame wars

No doubt Mr swarmy will post shortly after

You called?

I would think that a lot of people just have no interest in writing on the forums, which might show an emotional maturity greater than those of us who feel the need to be heard by the community.

Beyond that, the GD Forum suffers from what all reasonably narrow-based forums suffer from, having a limited pool of topics that can be discussed - hence the often posted reminders 'that this has been discussed before'. Therefore, I would imagine that many would read for a while, possibly post for a while and then get bored of it. However, some hang around for those odd great threads (King Herpes is better than YOU was a classic) when the community rouses itself in a great peak of indignation.

For myself:

Off topic - I have no interest in discussing the 'issues of the day' here.
Flamewars - sometimes good for a read, but suffers from effectively just going around in ever more spiteful circles...though an interesting snap shot into modern discourse.
Suggestions - again at times good for a read, rarely feel roused to contribute.
Cheating and Abuse - can produce the most interesting reads of all, though I rarely (if at all) feel qualified to venture an opinion.
Foundry - zzzzzzz
Strategy - suffers from no one really being prepared to give up their tricks to win.
GD - where I habitate, though I can go a while without finding much to respond to.

I would think GD has a mere 50-100 regular, current posters. Flamewars even less. No idea about Off-topic.

I've thought of another method of estimating activity...

"In total there are 921 users online :: 814 registered, 61 hidden and 46 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)"

"Users browsing this forum: Artimis, Fruitcake, General Mojo, joanmarty, Mr Changsha, MrBenn, Robinette and 1 guest"

Of the 921 users online, 8 of them are currently browsing GD... that's under 1%

MrBenn wrote:I've thought of another method of estimating activity...

"In total there are 921 users online :: 814 registered, 61 hidden and 46 guests (based on users active over the past 5 minutes)"

"Users browsing this forum: Artimis, Fruitcake, General Mojo, joanmarty, Mr Changsha, MrBenn, Robinette and 1 guest"

Of the 921 users online, 8 of them are currently browsing GD... that's under 1%

What about other boards like sugs + bugs etc... also, some of us stay hidden

I decided to join forums recently and I love it.
Best decision I've ever made because now I can have I'm waiting for my games to continue!

It's a shame that more users don't participate in the forums. I'm thinking especially the tournament forum; from what I've seen the people who regularly post in there really enjoy the tournaments, and I think there could be more tournaments with more people looking at the forum. Does anyone have any ideas as to how to recruit more people to the forums? (The forums directly related to gameplay I mean, such as Strategy, Tournaments and the Map Foundry)