Conquer Club

Remember that this is just asking if the designers want dice such that the odds can be predicted. Not the actual outcome.

For example, when rolling a die on this site, do you think the site designers would like:

1.the probability of rolling a 6 to be 1/6 (like a real die)?
2. for the probability to be uncalculabe (the probability could be anything before the roll)

Yes is for the 1st statement, no for the 2nd.

This is related to the "Question about dice..." thread.

I think you're going to run into the problem of people not understanding what the word 'odds' really means.

Yeah you could be right. Is there a less confusing term than odds I should use? Like the odds on attacking 3 v 2 are 37% 2 kills 0 losses, 34% 1 and 1, and 29% 0 and 2.

maniacmath17 wrote:Is there a less confusing term than odds I should use?

I don't think it is the words that people will not understand. I think it is the concept.

who would want predicatble dice? sounds horrible.....

hwhrhett wrote:who would want predicatble dice? sounds horrible.....

You may be saying that sarcastically but people really do think that by being able to calculate the odds, that makes the dice "predictable" and therefore not good. But its still unpredictable, you don't know whether or not you will win, just what the chances are of winning. And this is a very important thing to be able to calculate.

Maybe the concept is confusing. I would like to just ask whether or not the designers want the dice to be random, but apparently people don't know what random really means.

If the odds can't be predicted, the dice aren't truly random. I would rather have predictable odds and random dice.

john9blue wrote:If the odds can't be predicted, the dice aren't truly random. I would rather have predictable odds and random dice.

Exactly! Now if only I can get KLOBBER to understand this.

maniacmath17 wrote:Exactly! Now if only I can get KLOBBER to understand this.

Your time may be better spent elsewhere.

john9blue wrote:

maniacmath17 wrote:Exactly! Now if only I can get KLOBBER to understand this.

Your time may be better spent elsewhere.

Haha, you're probably right. But I'm so close! If one of the mods could just confirm this it would finally end KLOBBER's ridiculous argument. Hopefully the poll is enough though.

If your goal is to convince KLOBBER to admit that he is wrong, you'd be better off trying to change the colour of the sun. He will never respond to anything that might suggest he is mistaken.

I know but I think I've got him on this one.

An actual quote from KLOBBER: "Since the dice are unpredictable, you will NEVER know the "chances" beforehand, under any circumstances, and neither will anyone else. ...and guess what? The dice designers WANTED IT THAT WAY."

So once we can get conformation that the goal is to have dice that are random and thus the odds can be predicted, he will HAVE to admit he was wrong.

There was a suggestion around no dice games. Let me find the link. This sounds similar in concept with a defined outcome.

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=43095

maniacmath17 wrote:he will HAVE to admit he was wrong.

He will never admit to being wrong. He will simply avoid commenting.

jpcloet wrote:There was a suggestion around no dice games. Let me find the link. This sounds similar in concept with a defined outcome.

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=43095

Crap, that's just what I was afraid of. The poll jpcloet isn't asking about attacks with defined outcomes. All I'm asking is do we want dice so that we can figure out the ODDS of an attack. Lets say someone has 20 troops left spread over 5 countries and we have a stack of 30 troops. Do we want random dice so that we can use an odds calculator to see what our chances of eliminating this player are?

I say yes, so that attack plans can be made using the odds of success to factor in whether or not to go through with these plans. Other people (KLOBBER) feel as though it is better that the dice are simply unpredictable so that you have no idea what your chances of winning are heading into any attack.

As for what you said Timminz, I completely expect KLOBBER to just no longer post in the thread because I agree that he will never admit he's wrong. But he's basically hijacked my thread with his nonsense, so the fact that he will stop talking in it will be a huge victory for me so that the actual point of the thread can be discussed.

I have a math degree and this is not clear to me. Are you suggesting that the dice need to be changed and are not truly random, or are you arguing for predictable dice over a short series of rolls?

maniacmath17 wrote:I know but I think I've got him on this one.

An actual quote from KLOBBER: "Since the dice are unpredictable, you will NEVER know the "chances" beforehand, under any circumstances, and neither will anyone else. ...and guess what? The dice designers WANTED IT THAT WAY."

So once we can get conformation that the goal is to have dice that are random and thus the odds can be predicted, he will HAVE to admit he was wrong.

Maniac, I respect you as a player, and you seem like a smart guy; but don't you think an arguement like this is a waste of time. His comment has nothing to do with understanding CC dice. His arguement just shows that he doesn't understand what probability means. Why bother arguing this point. Unless he goes and takes a class in probability, I doubt your going to teach him what it means.

p.s. The intentions of CC in this poll aren't even relevant. The attacker and defender are both rolling 6 sided dice. So if the attackers dice and the defenders dice are both random, then the probability will have to work out to what you said. Although I think the numbers are 37% 33% and 30%, not 37, 34 and 29.

jpcloet wrote:I have a math degree and this is not clear to me. Are you suggesting that the dice need to be changed and are not truly random, or are you arguing for predictable dice over a short series of rolls?

I do believe that the dice aren't random, but that isn't exactly the poll question. What I'm wondering is what should we want the dice to be? Do we want them to be random, thereby making it possible to calculate the odds on an attack, or do we want them to be unpredictable, but non-random so that it would be impossible to calculate the odds of an attack.

Georgerx7di, I think he does know what probability means. What you just said is on the assumption that the attacker and defender are both rolling 6 sided dice. But since the dice are generated on a computer there is no real "rolling" and so there is the possibility that the dice aren't random.

Basically what I'm getting at in the poll is what I posted above. KLOBBER thinks that we want the dice to be unpredictable and non-random. I am just trying to show that Conquer Club wants to have random dice, which by definition make the odds of an attack calculable.

I'll admit it's probably a waste of time, but I've gone too far to turn back now.

Ok, I see what you are saying, but I still don't hear a suggestion or problem really.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_number_generator

Pseudo-random number generators are used all the time, I think it is used so often that it is implicitly implied. Even a person rolling the dice is not random IMO.

However, many mechanical phenomena feature asymmetries and systematic biases that make their outcomes not truly random.

jpcloet wrote:Ok, I see what you are saying, but I still don't hear a suggestion or problem really.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_number_generator

Pseudo-random number generators are used all the time, I think it is used so often that it is implicitly implied. Even a person rolling the dice is not random IMO.

However, many mechanical phenomena feature asymmetries and systematic biases that make their outcomes not truly random.

lol, thats because there isn't really a suggestion or a problem. It's just a poll to more or less prove KLOBBER wrong. Unfortunately, by making the poll without using the word random, I think some people aren't understanding the question. I edited the first page a little so hopefully it helps.

maniacmath17 wrote:Unfortunately, by making the poll without using the word random, I think some people aren't understanding the question.

I'd say that it's more unfortunate that you don't understand the CC dice. You still haven't provided a shred of proof that there is a problem with the CC dice neither on a theoretical level or a practical one.

maniacmath17 wrote:What you just said is on the assumption that the attacker and defender are both rolling 6 sided dice. But since the dice are generated on a computer there is no real "rolling" and so there is the possibility that the dice aren't random.

Wait a minute. Are you suggesting we use real dice here???

maniacmath17 wrote:Do we want them to be random, thereby making it possible to calculate the odds on an attack, or do we want them to be unpredictable, but non-random so that it would be impossible to calculate the odds of an attack.

The CC dice IS random (in the way you describe it), they are also unpredictable (in the way they need to be for our purposes). Having it any other way would be disastrous for a game such as CC (or RISK).

Timminz wrote:I think you're going to run into the problem of people not understanding what the word 'odds' really means.

i'm at odds with this already