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[Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Sun May 10, 2009 6:42 amby e_i_pi
Points Inflation occurs due to players joining the site, playing 3-4 games, then leaving and never coming back. Most of the time, these players lose most if not all of their games. Each time a player does this, an extra 20-80ish points enters the scoreboard, never to leave. Spread amongst the 22k average players, that's only 0.001-0.004 points per player each time this happens. but it racks up over time.
I have completed an analysis of the scoreboard, how many points are on it in total, and how much (on average) each players score is inflated by.
Have a guess at how much each players points are inflated by (in the poll). Once the poll closes (a month from today), I'll reveal how much inflation has occurred. Oh, and if you're thinking of calculating it, please keep the answer to yourself, I'd like to gauge the community's perception
EXAMPLE: If you vote 51 to 75, that means you think the average score on CC is 1051-1075.
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 1:52 amby Artimis
I formally petition the OP of this thread to add the option WAY TOO MUCH! to the poll. In the absence of this option I voted for over 200.
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 3:05 amby Bruceswar
In theory we are all at 1000. If you take out the people gone, well then it goes up just a bit.
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 6:03 amby jpcloet
Bruceswar wrote:In theory we are all at 1000. If you take out the people gone, well then it goes up just a bit.
Until you add a few point resets into the mix. The pool of available points is larger than it used to be.
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 6:05 amby guylian
jpcloet wrote:Bruceswar wrote:In theory we are all at 1000. If you take out the people gone, well then it goes up just a bit.
Until you add a few point resets into the mix. The pool of available points is larger than it used to be.
And all the people who have just given up playing, taking their points with them.
EDIT- i voted 1-25
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 11:15 amby a.sub
i voted for 200 and above
there are so many ppl that join new and leave the same da after joining a few non speed games
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 7:10 pmby john9blue
After glancing at the scoreboard, I'd say over 200.
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 8:37 pmby a.sub
when do we get the answer
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 8:40 pmby Timminz
a.sub wrote:when do we get the answer
e_i_pi wrote:Once the poll closes (a month from today), I'll reveal how much inflation has occurred.
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 8:41 pmby PLAYER57832
e_i_pi wrote:Points Inflation occurs due to players joining the site, playing 3-4 games, then leaving and never coming back. Most of the time, these players lose most if not all of their games. Each time a player does this, an extra 20-80ish points enters the scoreboard, never to leave. Spread amongst the 22k average players, that's only 0.001-0.004 points per player each time this happens. but it racks up over time.
I have completed an analysis of the scoreboard, how many points are on it in total, and how much (on average) each players score is inflated by.
Have a guess at how much each players points are inflated by (in the poll). Once the poll closes (a month from today), I'll reveal how much inflation has occurred. Oh, and if you're thinking of calculating it, please keep the answer to yourself, I'd like to gauge the community's perception
EXAMPLE: If you vote 51 to 75, that means you think the average score on CC is 1051-1075.
Sorry, but I disagree with this entire assessment. For one thing, you have attrition on all levels, not just newbies. Also, more people joining means more points spread out, so the overall impact is essentially nil.
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 8:55 pmby Timminz
PLAYER57832 wrote:Sorry, but I disagree with this entire assessment. For one thing, you have attrition on all levels, not just newbies.
True, but a surprising percentage of people who sign up, never join more than 4 games. They sign up, join 4 games, get disappointed when it isn't real time, and never bother coming back. Far more than there are winning a few, and then giving up.
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 9:11 pmby jpcloet
You can call it whatever you like, but the question is essentially:
Of the active players, what is that average score minus 1000 points.
EI tells me my number is higher than his, but I only took every 10th pages as a sample. I'm too lazy to do all the pages. My bad for assuming a normal distribution. I should know better than that just by looking at page 1.
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 9:46 pmby The Neon Peon
I once took the average of all sergeants and below in points.
Exact time of date collection: January 23, 2009 at 6:00-6:30 PM central time
Total amount of people at time of my survey: 19032 Sergeant 1st Class and below. (along with a few lieutenants, 198 to be precise)
Average score was 1059.966
Average games played was 199.9217
Average win rating was only 4.49007 (probably from all the deatbeats)
Now, factoring in all lieutenants, captains, majors, colonel, brigaders, generals, and field marshals... I would say that it is pretty high.
In case any of you are wondering, I tried to foe every one of those 19000 people, but apparently foe list maxes out at a little under 10000. This max out is not on purpose, since all what happens is a timeout whenever you try to add anyone else to the menu. Maybe I need to get a better internet provider.
Moral of the story: always keep records of everything you ever do in life. Never know when they will become useful 4 months later.
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 9:48 pmby Timminz
The Neon Peon wrote:In case any of you are wondering, I tried to foe every one of those 19000 people, but apparently foe list maxes out at a little under 10000.
Wow dude. That's intense.
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 9:53 pmby the.killing.44
The Neon Peon wrote:In case any of you are wondering, I tried to foe every one of those 19000 people, but apparently foe list maxes out at a little under 10000.
How'd it feel to be klobby?
.44
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 9:53 pmby The Neon Peon
the.killing.44 wrote:The Neon Peon wrote:In case any of you are wondering, I tried to foe every one of those 19000 people, but apparently foe list maxes out at a little under 10000.
How'd it feel to be klobby?
.44
I envied him for having only 3000 people to foe. Thanks for asking.
But maybe we should get back on topic sometime. Feel free to send me a PM
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 9:54 pmby e_i_pi
I'm surprised anyone has voted Zero and Under... I put that in there just to be fair
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 9:56 pmby jpcloet
So when is the big reveal?
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 9:57 pmby Timminz
jpcloet wrote:So when is the big reveal?
Timminz wrote:a.sub wrote:when do we get the answer
e_i_pi wrote:Once the poll closes (a month from today), I'll reveal how much inflation has occurred.
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 9:59 pmby e_i_pi
jpcloet wrote:So when is the big reveal?
Well, given that so many people have responded already (I think there's about as many votes here as there was for the Foundry comps over the same period of time), I might reveal at the end of the week.
Of course, the next question is: "How do you address points inflation?"
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 10:00 pmby jpcloet
Never leave CC, you're here for life!
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 10:02 pmby Timminz
e_i_pi wrote:Of course, the next question is: "How do you address points inflation?"
No Points For New Recruit DeadbeatsNot perfect, but it would be a start.
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 10:12 pmby The Neon Peon
Have people's points decay in a direct variation to the amount of people they play. This will lead to point deflation, and if we get the math just right, it will balance out.
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 10:52 pmby a.sub
how about this,
CC has 1,000,000* points total, regardless of what happens
every time someone quits their points are put into the "Bank"**
every time someone joins they get a piece of the "Bank"**
if the bank runs to low then we simply take 1%*** of everyone's score
* This point value was made up, ill leave that to the statisticians
** Name is debateable, actually i just wanted another reference lol
*** percentage is adjustable its just an example, although i really want it to be a % not a number since it would affect low players and high players in vastly different ways
Re: [Poll] Points Inflation - Guess how much
Posted:
Mon May 11, 2009 11:10 pmby Robinette
Well, instead of giving a wild ass guess, i decided to apply some simple logic to this...
i first thought what is the median score? Well that was easy enough to figure by looking at page 45 of the 90 pages of scores... Since 1066 is the median score, i figured the correct answer to be 66...
But then i realized that it would be better to have an average score, but no way was i going to add them all up... so i figured i'd take the score from the middle, currently page 45, which is 1066... then the scores from 15 pages either side of that,, which is 1249 and 977... then scores from 15 pages further, which is pages 15 and 75,, which is 1549 and 903 respectively... and the end of page 1, and the top of the last page, which is 2546 and 390. Add them up, divide by 7, subtract the 1000 we all start with, and voila... 240
But then i realized that there are points in circulation from names not on the scoreboard because they haven't logged on for over 30 days... mnnnnnn.... how many such players? and how many lost points? I know plenty of successful players (over 1000 points) that have 'retired' from CC... some with very high scores... but how many have given up after LOSING a few hundred? And more impactful would be the players that join 5 games, and just leave... mnnnnnnn..... i wonder... in any case, this makes the number harder to determine... well... i decided to ignore the + points and the - points from these variables and just stick with the 240 number.
But then i realized that i should apply the 80/20 rule to the result... so 80% of that number is 192... and i feel much better with that, so after careful analysis, i decided my wild ass guess will be 192.
192.. without 192, I'd have about 2900 right now... this is about the score i had when i held the # 4 scoreboard position before point inflation had become a concern... so yeah... i'm gonna go with that... my adjusted wild ass guess is 192