Conquer Club

Ok, I wish to analyse how the suspect pool changes depending on certain variables.

The original pool (4 out of 12):

gregwolf (12) ~ Saf, jonty, soundman, violet, aage, JG, Nag, DRoZ, jak, ??? (Jak or Victor), Strike, Vodean

Post-flips, we have nagerous/Lovo as town, JG as town, Jak as town and Vodean as mafia.

That leaves the new pool (3 out of : Saf, Jonty, Soundman, Violet, Aage, Droz, ??? (Jak or Victor), Strike

Scenario 1 - Safari and Strike are to be trusted: Safari cleared Violet and the ??? vote that could have been Victor's. Since we are trusting both Saf and Strike for their actions, the remaining pool is Jonty, Aage, Droz and Soundman (3 out of 4).

Scenario 2 - Only Safari is to be trusted while Strike lied. This is tricky, but it would almost certainly lead us to believe Soundman is mafia while Strike may or may not be a busdriver. By doing what Strike did, he managed to protect a stronger mafia power role while also getting town cred for "correctly" redirecting us for Rishaed. In this scenario, Strike may or may not be a busdriver and he may or may not have tampered with previous Safari investigations.

I'm not going to assume we are in a scenario 2, but if Soundman ends up flipping mafia we need to reevaluate Strike's acquired town cred from directing us away from Sound and into Rishaed.

Scenario 3 - Strike can be trusted while Saf can't. Unlikely, since Saf has a strong claim (although not getting an action in time does raise suspicions). In this case, we need to send Violet and ??? back to the pool, which makes us lose al ot of accuracy.

Scenario 4 - Strike and Saf both lied. Also tricky and unlikely. I'm not going to waste time into that now.

I decided to write these scenarios in order to keep everyone's minds broad. I still believe in scenario 1 (lynch Droz, Aage, Jonty and Soundman until we catch 3 mafia), but if there are 2 town flips among those 4 players we should start being more skeptical (especially if Soundman is not one of the town flips).

soundman wrote:We could have an SK. I wouldn't rule it out in a game of this size. Probably not very likely though. I feel like there's something off about aage's claim and one of the night scenes. I don't have time right now to go back and look but will do so tomorrow.

Counting you on your word here. I am very tempted to vote you, I have flagged you as suspicious a long time ago. No post tomorrow ike you said means you are scummarining again in my eyes. Too much of that has happened. And since I belive:

Rodion wrote:Scenario 2 - Only Safari is to be trusted while Strike lied. This is tricky, but it would almost certainly lead us to believe Soundman is mafia while Strike may or may not be a busdriver. By doing what Strike did, he managed to protect a stronger mafia power role while also getting town cred for "correctly" redirecting us for Rishaed. In this scenario, Strike may or may not be a busdriver and he may or may not have tampered with previous Safari investigations.

Soundman being possibly the GF. Strike wants to protect GF from kill so instead leads him to a goon giving himself town cred and a solid backup for at least another day for the GF.

About Aage: mafia has been failing their NKs recently and with the "3 mafia out of 4" scenario being the most likely, I wouldn't rule Aage sacrificing himself with a fake doctor claim in order to draw the real doctor out and hopefully stop missing NKs.

I'm not a big fan of having an archangel counterclaim someone that is already 75% likely mafia, but the situation is tricky. We may have:

a) Raphael as the doctor and Aage as scum.
b) Raphael as some JOAT/inventor/bodyguard role and Aage as the doctor.
c) Raphael as some JOAT/inventor/bodyguard role, some dude as the doctor and Aage as scum.

I'm thinking on whether a saint doctor should counterclaim, assuming there is one. If there is no saint doctor counterclaim, Raphael could potentially prevent a mislynch by coming forward and saying he was a JOAT-like dude and not THE doctor. Raphael coming forward + no saint doctor counterclaim would mean Aage speaks the truth, but again I don't know if we should possibly risk some town identities just in case Aage is really town.

I believe the best thing we can do now is force Jonty and Soundman into claiming. That can help us reach a more accurate decision. I do not believe there is the risk of one of them being targeted for a NK if they are a strong town power role, as that would just help us conclude who the remaining mafia are.

Tl;dr: I'd like Jonty and Soundman to claim.

aage wrote:

DoomYoshi wrote:

aage wrote:

jonty125 wrote:

aage wrote:

jonty125 wrote:My crime?

Being on the list

That doesn't distinguish me from the other 5 on the list.

It does. Process of elimination. You haven't claimed yet.

Not my arguments, but probably Doom's.

So, who do you think we should lynch then?

If you, jonty and droz are all cleared, that means we have to lynch saf, right?

Don't play the fool. I've expressed my suspicions in an earlier post, and yes, I definitely think we should lynch the claimed cop because that's always a brilliant thing to do.

I have you down for town but that doesn't licence you to be an ass about it.

Ok, whether I am an ass or not doesn't change the fact. You have said that droz is town, you have said that jonty is town. You have said that you are town. If all 3 of you are town, this means that saf is scum, so why aren't you voting for him? I may be an ass, but your position is totally ridiculous. I have more questions for you, but I don't even care about your answer. You are scum, and I won't change my vote today.

Question 1: What were the facts that led you to believe that your targets of each night were likely kill targets?

FP'ed by Rodion: I don't see any downfalls to their claims either. Right now, oddly enough, I am leaning towards droz being the clearest of them.

Jonty is obv-scum. Only scum ask what the case on them is so they can defend against it (sad but true).

DoomYoshi wrote:Ok, whether I am an ass or not doesn't change the fact. You have said that droz is town, you have said that jonty is town. You have said that you are town. If all 3 of you are town, this means that saf is scum, so why aren't you voting for him? I may be an ass, but your position is totally ridiculous. I have more questions for you, but I don't even care about your answer. You are scum, and I won't change my vote today.

Question 1: What were the facts that led you to believe that your targets of each night were likely kill targets?

Can you quote the posts for me where I said both were town?
I'm not trying to fit the puzzle here, Saf's and Strike's claim both seem equally legitimate to me. Fitting the puzzle is unnecessary in my opinion, I simply think we should lynch whoever is most scummy. I am not putting my vote anywhere until we have all claims, though. It would be hypocritical of me to do so.

As to your question, I'm a doctor, not an oracle. I protected those I deemed most worthy of protection. These were my choices.

In this post aage reveals he is not an angel, and that humans are probably not town:

I think it should be mentioned that we shouldn't disregard the possibility that humans and angels have different win conditions, since if the subvert-thing is in the angel role pm but not in the human role pm. It's not in my role pm anyway, I found out about it through Lsu's and jgordon's posts, so I suppose it is also not in Jak's (or violet's, or other claimed humans') role pms.

In this post (after several of defending droz), aage admits he does not think droz is scum:

aage wrote:

aage wrote:

DoomYoshi wrote:@aage: what? Where do we have proof that he was roleblocked?

Exactly. But if he wasn't roleblocked and he was mafia, it would be pretty strange to claim to have been roleblocked, as I explained in my previous post. Maybe I should have stressed that with "claimed to have been roleblocked" I meant "lie about being roleblocked", I thought that was obvious.
All we know is that his vote is gone, so obviously he wasn't lying about that. That lends some credibility to his roleblock-claim by my book.

@SW, see my reply to DY. I think you misinterpreted what I said.

ebwop

So following that reasoning, claiming to have been blocked if he were a mafia watcher whilst in fact he wasn't blocked would make no sense to do... hence we can conclude that either he is town and lying (which is okay, really, since he's town and I won't be voting him) or he is any alignment and was genuinely roleblocked, and therefore I see no reason to suspect him. Watcher is a pretty useful role to keep alive, and I'm not at all convinced that he must be scum.

In this post, aage admits that there is "no" case on jonty. I took a leap and logic and assumed that meant he thinks jonty is not scum (i.e. is town).

aage wrote:

jonty125 wrote:

F1fth wrote:It would be nice to hear from Safari, but in the interest of moving things along I'm going to Vote Jonty.

My crime?

Being on the list

Based on the first post, and his claim of human, and his pretend denial of defending both droz and jonty, I am now going into the 90%+ range of scum with aage, compared to 99%+ range with jonty.

In this post Doom mixes up alignment with win condition, and claims to be an Angel (Good luck tonight, idiot. I already explained earlier why claiming to be an angel is suicide.):

DoomYoshi wrote:In this post aage reveals he is not an angel, and that humans are probably not town:

I think it should be mentioned that we shouldn't disregard the possibility that humans and angels have different win conditions, since if the subvert-thing is in the angel role pm but not in the human role pm. It's not in my role pm anyway, I found out about it through Lsu's and jgordon's posts, so I suppose it is also not in Jak's (or violet's, or other claimed humans') role pms.

In this post Doom doesn't understand I'm fighting his arguments, not his point, as he's too agressive for my liking and currently even twisting around my words to make them fit his case. You know who I want to be lynched, and letting someone else get lynched is not my agenda.

DoomYoshi wrote:In this post (after several of defending droz), aage admits he does not think droz is scum:

aage wrote:

aage wrote:

DoomYoshi wrote:@aage: what? Where do we have proof that he was roleblocked?

Exactly. But if he wasn't roleblocked and he was mafia, it would be pretty strange to claim to have been roleblocked, as I explained in my previous post. Maybe I should have stressed that with "claimed to have been roleblocked" I meant "lie about being roleblocked", I thought that was obvious.
All we know is that his vote is gone, so obviously he wasn't lying about that. That lends some credibility to his roleblock-claim by my book.

@SW, see my reply to DY. I think you misinterpreted what I said.

ebwop

So following that reasoning, claiming to have been blocked if he were a mafia watcher whilst in fact he wasn't blocked would make no sense to do... hence we can conclude that either he is town and lying (which is okay, really, since he's town and I won't be voting him) or he is any alignment and was genuinely roleblocked, and therefore I see no reason to suspect him. Watcher is a pretty useful role to keep alive, and I'm not at all convinced that he must be scum.

In this post, Doom missed the entire sentence that made up my post. All the 'case' you have on Jonty is his presence on the list and his current behavior which he didn't show earlier.

DoomYoshi wrote:In this post, aage admits that there is "no" case on jonty. I took a leap and logic and assumed that meant he thinks jonty is not scum (i.e. is town).

aage wrote:

jonty125 wrote:

F1fth wrote:It would be nice to hear from Safari, but in the interest of moving things along I'm going to Vote Jonty.

My crime?

Being on the list

DoomYoshi wrote:Based on the first post, and his claim of human, and his pretend denial of defending both droz and jonty, I am now going into the 90%+ range of scum with aage, compared to 99%+ range with jonty.

Le sigh. Clearly you're not at all biased when you're voting for the lower percentage. Oh well, your vote, not mine.

I hope the rest of town is able to make a properly informed decision.

Rodion wrote:Tl;dr: I'd like Jonty and Soundman to claim.

Sorry Rodion, I aren't claiming unless there is more backing from other players.

DoomYoshi wrote:compared to 99%+ range with jonty.

I wouldn't be so sure, but then again, I have 100% confidence I'm town.

I'm cop-confirmed town. Me and Vio are already the biggest targets theoretically.

well i think the only way to move on is for those on the list to claim, and from that list we only need jonty and soundman to do so, therefore i also want jonty and soundman to claim

I will also throw my support behind the motion to have soundman and jonty claim.

Here's the night scene I was thinking of:

edocsil wrote:An Archangel sat and watched the shadows. Shapes flickered in the night, and until now, there were none he could be sure he could trust. He had stayed his hand to long now, and now he must act. He took a massive greatsword from his back. It was a colossal thing, no human could have wielded it. In truth it was never meant to be used to kill, it was a totem of the angels power that he received from Yahweh. He chose his target and slammed the sword into the ground, burying it into the earth. A golden shield rose up from the sword and protected its target against the horrors of the night. So the angel stood until dawn came.

It kinda sounds like a JOAT thing to me not a doc role, so aage could be telling the truth.

DoomYoshi wrote:I'm cop-confirmed town. Me and Vio are already the biggest targets theoretically.

Unless one of you are the GF... Also there is a possibility that you're on the initial vote count lynch due to the stolen vote.

soundman wrote:Here's the night scene I was thinking of:

edocsil wrote:An Archangel sat and watched the shadows. Shapes flickered in the night, and until now, there were none he could be sure he could trust. He had stayed his hand to long now, and now he must act. He took a massive greatsword from his back. It was a colossal thing, no human could have wielded it. In truth it was never meant to be used to kill, it was a totem of the angels power that he received from Yahweh. He chose his target and slammed the sword into the ground, burying it into the earth. A golden shield rose up from the sword and protected its target against the horrors of the night. So the angel stood until dawn came.

It kinda sounds like a JOAT thing to me not a doc role, so aage could be telling the truth.

DoomYoshi wrote:I'm cop-confirmed town. Me and Vio are already the biggest targets theoretically.

Unless one of you are the GF... Also there is a possibility that you're on the initial vote count lynch due to the stolen vote.

This post reeks of scum. Rather than deal with the problem at hand (which of the 3 is scum), soundman just adds to the confusion.

Sorry, droz, turns out you are town after all. I don't like your recent silence though.

DoomYoshi wrote:

soundman wrote:Here's the night scene I was thinking of:

edocsil wrote:An Archangel sat and watched the shadows. Shapes flickered in the night, and until now, there were none he could be sure he could trust. He had stayed his hand to long now, and now he must act. He took a massive greatsword from his back. It was a colossal thing, no human could have wielded it. In truth it was never meant to be used to kill, it was a totem of the angels power that he received from Yahweh. He chose his target and slammed the sword into the ground, burying it into the earth. A golden shield rose up from the sword and protected its target against the horrors of the night. So the angel stood until dawn came.

It kinda sounds like a JOAT thing to me not a doc role, so aage could be telling the truth.

DoomYoshi wrote:I'm cop-confirmed town. Me and Vio are already the biggest targets theoretically.

Unless one of you are the GF... Also there is a possibility that you're on the initial vote count lynch due to the stolen vote.

This post reeks of scum. Rather than deal with the problem at hand (which of the 3 is scum), soundman just adds to the confusion.

Sorry, droz, turns out you are town after all. I don't like your recent silence though.

I'm not adding to the confusion. I'm saying that it's entirely possible that the three anti-town are not all in those four. It could easily be you or Vio, or both in some cases. I find it scummy that as soon as I bring up that point you call me scum and try to downplay what I've said. Got something to hide?

jonty125 wrote:

Rodion wrote:Tl;dr: I'd like Jonty and Soundman to claim.

Sorry Rodion, I aren't claiming unless there is more backing from other players.

DoomYoshi wrote:compared to 99%+ range with jonty.

I wouldn't be so sure, but then again, I have 100% confidence I'm town.

Ill back one from soundman, but not you.. Idk how I feel about you yet..

Before I continue. safari. do you know if your role senses all non-town including corrupted humans or justdemons?

soundman wrote:It could easily be you or Vio, or both in some cases.

I was under the impression that Saf's investigations behaved just like Chap's, meaning he'd be tricked by a possible godfather (it could in fact be 5 out of 12 if Violet or Doom are GF), but I don't really know that.

[color=#FF0000]Edoc, can you confirm or deny?[/color]

EBWOP:

soundman wrote:It could easily be you or Vio, or both in some cases.

I was under the impression that Saf's investigations behaved just like Chap's, meaning he'd be tricked by a possible godfather (it could in fact be 5 out of 12 if Violet or Doom are GF), but I don't really know that.

Edoc, can you confirm or deny?

DoomYoshi wrote:I'm cop-confirmed town. Me and Vio are already the biggest targets theoretically.

Is this because I claimed already?

Rodion wrote:

soundman wrote:It could easily be you or Vio, or both in some cases.

I was under the impression that Saf's investigations behaved just like Chap's, meaning he'd be tricked by a possible godfather (it could in fact be 5 out of 12 if Violet or Doom are GF), but I don't really know that.

[color=#FF0000]Edoc, can you confirm or deny?[/color]

Well technically, I've been investigated twice. And anyone could be the GF, so that point seems almost moot. Also, I don't think Edoc can respond to something like that. I think whether or not the GF is investigative-immune should not be revealed during the duration of the game.

Also, I think we should keep in mind that there are more scum in the game than just those three: (aage, soundman, jonty). There has to be at least two more besides them. While I know we want to focus on these three right now, I think everyone should keep that thought in the back of his/her minds.

Rodion wrote:EBWOP:

soundman wrote:It could easily be you or Vio, or both in some cases.

I was under the impression that Saf's investigations behaved just like Chap's, meaning he'd be tricked by a possible godfather (it could in fact be 5 out of 12 if Violet or Doom are GF), but I don't really know that.

Edoc, can you confirm or deny?

Why would I do that? I can't recall any mod saying GF powers vs investigation. In other news, ill have a VC up tomorrow, but no one is even close to being lynched atm.

I am not sure why you continue to have this insistence on tying myself and aage together, Doom. As far as I can tell, all he did was attack your reasoning behind coming after me, while a number of others have done the exact same thing without drawing your ire. I would also like to point out that you continue to try to persuade others of your townliness, without much provocation, even going as far to say that you would be one of the mafia's primary targets, merely because a cop investigated you. These tend to not be the words of an honest man. Now you seem to grow tired of grasping for straws after me, and moving on to other targets, hopefully this is a sign of you coming to your senses, and not because myself and others are beginning to doubt your intentions.

As for aage, I agree with the sentiments earlier, that this doctor claim could be just a ploy to out an actual doctor. I assumed a doctor would be an angel, but it certainly isn't out of the realm of possibilities for him to be a saint. This could also be a plan to draw protective and investigative night roles, should he make it through the day. But it would be foolish for a doctor to counter claim.

My thoughts on whether or not soundman and jonty should claim... as soon as we learned of chaps ability, it was only a matter of time before all of us would be pressured to claim, so any mafia on that list should have thought the same and had plenty of time to come up with a well thought out claim, possibly even vetting it through their fellow scum over these past few nights, so I would assume should they claim, they will be good ones. I am certainly more interested in soundman's claim over jonty's, although I recall being very suspicious of jonty early on, but unfortunately I cannot recall why.

My apologies for not having much time to post over the past week or so, I have had a ton of end of year assessments at work due late last week as well as well as many more due next week.

edocsil wrote:Why would I do that? I can't recall any mod saying GF powers vs investigation. In other news, ill have a VC up tomorrow, but no one is even close to being lynched atm.

That's not what I meant. We always assume cop investigations not to work against godfathers. I just wanted to know whether Chap's investigation had the same weakness or if it did not.


Anyway, a lot of people want Soundman to claim with a little less players wanting to hear from Jonty. Strike also has a question to Saf "before he continues", which might end up being a lead. I'm going to wait until people talk.

Well my claiming will probably be more helpful to town than mafia. I'm Saint Clotilde, Beloved Princess.

I'm pretty suspicious of Doom right now but will wait till Jonty claims and Strike asks his question.

That's pretty suspicious.

Anyway, Soundman flipping scum would give some "relief" to the other 3 (Aage, Droz, Jonty), as that would send Strike back to the pool (remember that directing us away from Soundman and into Rishaed is only a town-tell if Soundman is town). We could be looking at Soundman scum and 2 out of 4 among Aage, Droz, Jonty and Strike (again assuming we trust Safari).

Should this claim be true, it could indicate a King Clovis character, who was a pretty important conversion for catholicism, lending a bit of credence to the whole third party conversion faction theory floating around out there.