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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby Fircoal on Wed Apr 05, 2017 3:19 am

We all know what to do now, right?

Vote: Skoffin
Vote: Mandy
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby mandalorian2298 on Wed Apr 05, 2017 3:58 am

I have been trying to figure out the set of N2 actions that would result all of town players knowing who the scum is. The problem seems to be that scum can throw a wrench into our plans by eliminating the key knowledge guy and simply contradicting one of the remaining townies thus making it a coin flip situation for the other townie.

I like coin flipping as much as the next gambler :), but if possible I prefer to stack the odds in my favor. So, for the change of pace here is my actual Mafia based deduction: I believe that Mitch is TOWN.

Here is my reason: Fircoal posted first, claiming that I am scum. Mitch posted second, claiming the same thing. Had Samlen, posting third claimed that I am scum as well, that would have proven that I am in fact Town, which would have Goon's chances considerably. Furthermore, since NONE of us knows what flavor cop dearly departed Skoff has been, Mitch couldn't have known for sure if Samlen and/or myself had investigated me and found me scummy. Because of this, I'm more inclined to believe that he is telling the truth.

P.S. If I have missed a set of actions that have a good chance of yielding two confirmed townies on Day 2 and you find it, please speak up.
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Talapus wrote:I'm far more pissed that mandy and his thought process were right from the get go....damn you mandy.
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby Samlen on Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:11 am

A couple notes here, I'd posted my investigation SECOND, not third and are you claiming that you investigated Mitch and found out he was town or...? As for the coin flip part, that's pretty much what this whole setup is since it's impossible to know what cop types we are for sure: we can only get good guesses. Which is why if everyone investigates the same person tonight (Say, me) we can use those investigation results and last nights to piece together what sanities we have/ get a much better clue as to who isn't town. I don't completely understand why you think if you'd had three guilty reports you'd be inno since if you were mafia that could happen with normal paranoid and confused cop investigating you (50% chance but still possible).
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby madmitch on Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:06 am

To early to tell, but right of the bat Mandy you sound paranoid or insane with all you theories, and has anyone give a thought what type of cop Skoffin was? it just said cop ,we are all cops except one ,and I believe it is Mandy, he is just trying to hard to prove he is town, VOTE MANDY
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby mandalorian2298 on Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:34 pm

Samlen, in my defense that's what happens when you post in one long paragraph. Since your second post started with "Rather fortunate all 3 of us investigated the same person", when I was re-reading I somehow decided that was the post in which you gave your result.

Add to that the fact that Mitch is voting me despite the FACT that it's in Town's best interest to No Lynch and get another investigation, my new Mafia deduction is that Mitch is probably GOON.

Sadly, even with a clear target, I don't think that we can guarantee that on Day 2 two surviving townies will BOTH know who the GOON is.
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby Samlen on Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:49 pm

Well let's take a look of which 3 (not mandy) seem the most town-like. Why? Because we want two town-like people to be alive tomorrow. I say two because the worst person for the mafia to kill this next night would be mandy (could be mafia but we can try to figure that out tomorrow), since that would greatly help in determining our sanities and legitimize our next set of investigations that much more. By deciding who we investigate tonight together we make it risky for the mafia to kill that person also since, again, it would help us figure out our sanities.

I'll agree that mitch is acting suspicious but, then again, mitch always acts suspicious so I honestly don't know what to take away from his playstyle. Hopefully, things will be clearer tomorrow.

@Mitch, we really shouldn't vote someone off today since if we're wrong we loose. If we wait till tomorrow we have more investigations and fewer people so smaller chance of failing.

As for choosing a target to investigate tonight I'd nominate myself while i investigate a different random person. Thoughts?
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby madmitch on Wed Apr 05, 2017 3:27 pm

@ Samlem ,okay that makes sense but if I am killed I will come back and haunt you. unvote
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby mandalorian2298 on Thu Apr 06, 2017 1:58 am

Fircoal wrote:We all know what to do now, right?

Vote: Skoffin


And how about we just lynch the submarriner? That sounds good? You feel like you might want to contribute to the discussion or do you like your chances as they are?
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Talapus wrote:I'm far more pissed that mandy and his thought process were right from the get go....damn you mandy.
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby Fircoal on Thu Apr 06, 2017 2:02 am

mandalorian2298 wrote:
Fircoal wrote:We all know what to do now, right?

Vote: Skoffin


And how about we just lynch the submarriner? That sounds good? You feel like you might want to contribute to the discussion or do you like your chances as they are?



mandalorian2298 wrote:Add to that the fact that Mitch is voting me despite the FACT that it's in Town's best interest to No Lynch and get another investigation, my new Mafia deduction is that Mitch is probably GOON.



You know as well as I do that there really is only one play for town to make this game. No Lynch. So while we can talk about who we think is scummy our only worthwhile talking point is trying to figure out what investigations would be the best to persue And I'm not even sure if there is a path that is the best.

and for the record mitch is doing his own mitch thing I wouldn't read too much into it.
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby mandalorian2298 on Thu Apr 06, 2017 2:13 am

Samlen wrote:Well let's take a look of which 3 (not mandy) seem the most town-like. Why? Because we want two town-like people to be alive tomorrow. I say two because the worst person for the mafia to kill this next night would be mandy (could be mafia but we can try to figure that out tomorrow), since that would greatly help in determining our sanities and legitimize our next set of investigations that much more. By deciding who we investigate tonight together we make it risky for the mafia to kill that person also since, again, it would help us figure out our sanities.

I'll agree that mitch is acting suspicious but, then again, mitch always acts suspicious so I honestly don't know what to take away from his playstyle. Hopefully, things will be clearer tomorrow.

@Mitch, we really shouldn't vote someone off today since if we're wrong we loose. If we wait till tomorrow we have more investigations and fewer people so smaller chance of failing.

As for choosing a target to investigate tonight I'd nominate myself while i investigate a different random person. Thoughts?


I have considered all the coordinated strike scenarios, but they all suffer from the defect that they give the Goon all the information necessary to choose an optimum target (and there is no Doc to counter him).

For the record, my favoritest thing in the world would be if Fircoal and Mitch investigated their respective selves, because that would clear me in the eyes of those among them who are Cops. However if they agree to do this beforehand, then Goon would just kill me making the results of their investigations useless since Day 2 is LYLO.
By contrast, if they DON'T commit to investigating themselves AND Goon kills me AND one of them is an Insane Cop, then that Cop has a 50% chance of investigating a Goon and, since my corpse will show Cop, he will know how to correctly interpret the result of his investigation.
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby madmitch on Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:30 am

@ Mandy ,I agree what you are saying ,my choice is either Samlem or Fircoal to investigate not saying who,no use investigating you already got a guilty on you but will find out if that is true or not after night investigation. For now NO VOTE
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby mandalorian2298 on Thu Apr 06, 2017 1:46 pm

@Fircoal Sorry for missing your fastpost. You are right that No Lynch is the only way for the Town to go, but you are missing (deliberatly or not?) the fact that on Day 2 we most probably won't have a situation where two Townies know who the Goon is. Surviving Townies, if they choose well, may end up with SOME info, but most probably at least one of them will be forced to make an educated guess. The educated part is going to come from observing how the two remaining players acted during Day1.

@Mitch Actually you (and Fircoal) have three choices:

1&2 are Samlen and Fircoal.
a) If you get Scum then you know you are either Paranoid or Insane.
b) If you get Town, then either you are Sane and I am Goon or you are Insane and the player X you got Town on is Goon.
BEST CASE SCENARIO: b) + either I or Player X get killed, in which case you know that the one who survived is Goon.

3) Investigate yourself:

c) If you get Scum then you know that you are either Paranoid or Insane
or
(BEST CASE SCENARIO) d) You get Town which proves that I am Goon (SPOILER: I'm not :) )
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby madmitch on Thu Apr 06, 2017 4:22 pm

CAN YOU INVESTIGATE YOUSELF? Did not know that.
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby Skittles! on Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:32 pm

MOD POST

madmitch wrote:CAN YOU INVESTIGATE YOUSELF? Did not know that.

Yes I allow you to investigate yourself.

vote counts

No votes!
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby Samlen on Thu Apr 06, 2017 9:21 pm

Well that's something I didn't know. Otherwise I'd have investigated myself already....
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby madmitch on Fri Apr 07, 2017 2:32 pm

HELLO, anybody out the? :-^ :-^
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby Samlen on Sat Apr 08, 2017 1:06 am

Been doing some travelling the past two days so I haven't had a lot of time to say much. We could all investigate ourselves so get a much better idea of our sanity, though the same could be said if we all investigated one person. Even with the added info that we can investigate ourselves, I still think we should pick one person to all investigate tonight (the person being investigated could even investigate themselves, but I'd recommend a different, unspecified, person.)

@Mandy am I blind or have you not specified your result? I assumed you got Mitch as town but asked for clarification earlier.
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby mandalorian2298 on Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:25 am

Samlen wrote:Been doing some travelling the past two days so I haven't had a lot of time to say much. We could all investigate ourselves so get a much better idea of our sanity, though the same could be said if we all investigated one person. Even with the added info that we can investigate ourselves, I still think we should pick one person to all investigate tonight (the person being investigated could even investigate themselves, but I'd recommend a different, unspecified, person.)

@Mandy am I blind or have you not specified your result? I assumed you got Mitch as town but asked for clarification earlier.


It's in the post with the lab rat pics: "Long story short, my investigation showed that Mandy is town."

Anyhow, I am against coordinating our efforts since it makes it easier for Goon. However, I would like to recommend that YOU don't investigate yourself. Here is why:

If you DO investigate yourself:

a) If you get Town the result is useless to you because you could still be either Sane (with me being Town) or Naive (with me being either Town or Goon)

b) If you get Scum then you know that you are Insane and I'm the Goon.

On the other hand, if you investigate Fircoal/Mitch (I shall proceed to call this target Firtch for brevity), then (presuming that you are not Goon yourself, of course), if either Firtch or Mandy gets killed during Night 2, you will know for sure who the Goon is:

a) if the Firtch showed SCUM, then the survivor between Firtch and Mandy is Goon

b) if Firtch showed TOWN, then the survivor between Firtch and Mandy is Town, and the remaining player whom you have not investigated is Goon
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby mandalorian2298 on Sat Apr 08, 2017 3:27 am

Anyway, that's all the scenarios. vote No Lynch

Good night and aim true.
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby Fircoal on Sat Apr 08, 2017 7:33 pm

mandalorian2298 wrote:
Samlen wrote:Been doing some travelling the past two days so I haven't had a lot of time to say much. We could all investigate ourselves so get a much better idea of our sanity, though the same could be said if we all investigated one person. Even with the added info that we can investigate ourselves, I still think we should pick one person to all investigate tonight (the person being investigated could even investigate themselves, but I'd recommend a different, unspecified, person.)

@Mandy am I blind or have you not specified your result? I assumed you got Mitch as town but asked for clarification earlier.


It's in the post with the lab rat pics: "Long story short, my investigation showed that Mandy is town."

Anyhow, I am against coordinating our efforts since it makes it easier for Goon. However, I would like to recommend that YOU don't investigate yourself. Here is why:

If you DO investigate yourself:

a) If you get Town the result is useless to you because you could still be either Sane (with me being Town) or Naive (with me being either Town or Goon)

b) If you get Scum then you know that you are Insane and I'm the Goon.

On the other hand, if you investigate Fircoal/Mitch (I shall proceed to call this target Firtch for brevity), then (presuming that you are not Goon yourself, of course), if either Firtch or Mandy gets killed during Night 2, you will know for sure who the Goon is:

a) if the Firtch showed SCUM, then the survivor between Firtch and Mandy is Goon

b) if Firtch showed TOWN, then the survivor between Firtch and Mandy is Town, and the remaining player whom you have not investigated is Goon


I agree with this logic. Sam's best chance is to investigate one of us two. As for us two it's a little bit less certain but I'm not sure if there's any autowin picks.

Vote: Skoffin
Vote: Mandy
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby Samlen on Sun Apr 09, 2017 2:00 am

Welp sounds good enough to me. Don't think there's much more talking to do so Vote No-Lynch.
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby Samlen on Sun Apr 09, 2017 2:15 am

Also, answering my own question, I am veryvery blind.
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 1

Postby Skittles! on Sun Apr 09, 2017 5:57 am

VOTE COUNT

No Lynch - madmitch, Mandy, Sam

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

In this case, no lynch!

Night 2 has now started, you have 72 hours to send me your actions.
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Re: Dethy mafia Night 2

Postby Skittles! on Mon Apr 10, 2017 3:02 am

Thanks for the quick actioning team. You're gonna do great.

He was arguing on the internet when he was struck. "I made a mistake!" he yells, being bludgeoned to death by a keyboard. He was just about to scroll back 5 weeks on a facebook chat just to prove his point, albeit this point cost him his life.

Mandy (Cop) has been killed. Day 2 has started.

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to tango lynch. It's LYLO BITCHES.
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Re: Dethy mafia Day 2

Postby mandalorian2298 on Mon Apr 10, 2017 5:53 am

I rolled a successful save vs. Goon, but one of the dice fell of the table and Skittles killed me for that. :(
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