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Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia END Mafia win

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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby dakky21 on Sun Jul 21, 2019 3:29 pm

strike wolf wrote:Dakky. Your math is wrong. Like unbelievably wrong. Its not 1 out of whatever number. Its 5 out of 9 first night (Raz is dead, Pika wouldnt watch himself). 5 out of 7 night 2 (sage, Raz and DGZ dead, exclude pika). 5 out of 7 last night (No deaths night 2 or day 3).

So each individual night has >50% chance of him hitting someone who is currently still alive.

Secondly, would it have really mattered if he had claimed to visit DGZ, JFM or Blacky Night 1 or Blacky/JFM N2?


It's not 5 out of 9 or 7 or whatever. First day Raz lynched. Pika won't target himself. That leaves him 9 possible targets, that is true. But that is 1 out of 9 to hit the killer who will eventually night kill aage. Same for the later nights. Math is in this case correct and he had a lot more chance to hit wrong people than right one. That is correct, I already said my initial calculation was wrong.

No, it wouldn't matter if he had hit any townie. I was thinking watcher = tracker. I also said before I thought that was the same.

Ragian wrote:That makes zero sense. If Pika is scum, I'm not getting town cred for thinking he's town. If Pika is lynched and flips scum, then I'd look like an idiot. He'd have to be lynched and flip town in order for me to gain any town cred.


It makes sense. Just saying you know how to manipulate people and while your reasoning may be correct, it may still be manipulating. If Pika is scum and flips scum, you would be next for lynch, but if he flips town, you would be safe and "I told you so". Then why don't just lynch you first to be sure if your "Pika is town" allegations were correct.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby strike wolf on Sun Jul 21, 2019 3:46 pm

Oh Sorry. Maybe I misread you Dakky.

dakky21 wrote:It's actually funny how Pika "watched" only still alive people. What is the chance for that? I'll tell you: to have 1 out of 11 alive is 1:11, then to have second out of 9 alive is 1:9, and third out of 8 alive is 1:8... that is multiplied and it turns to be 11 times 9 times 8 which equals 1:792 and therefore he should either buy a lotto ticket or he is lying. And Ragian is covering his ass.


Nope. Not really. Keep your story straight next time.

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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby dakky21 on Sun Jul 21, 2019 4:30 pm

This post of Strike may change my point of view. Call it OMGUS again... but... if we can assume that Ragian is telling the truth and Pika is really town watcher... and if Ragoos feelings are correct about Pika and Tobi, that would leave Strike and Beast as possible scum. I'm willing to vote Strike instead of Ragian/Pika. Maybe I was wrong. But if I was not wrong then it's entirely Strikes's fault.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby ZaBeast on Sun Jul 21, 2019 4:48 pm

dakky21 wrote:It's not 5 out of 9 or 7 or whatever. First day Raz lynched. Pika won't target himself. That leaves him 9 possible targets, that is true. But that is 1 out of 9 to hit the killer who will eventually night kill aage. Same for the later nights. Math is in this case correct and he had a lot more chance to hit wrong people than right one. That is correct, I already said my initial calculation was wrong.

No, it wouldn't matter if he had hit any townie. I was thinking watcher = tracker. I also said before I thought that was the same.

Even if your premises were right, you just calculated the probability that he'd hit whoever performed the night kill on all of these three nights (or alternatively that he'd select whoever was the NK target on each of these night). Of course it's not going to happen, and pika didn't claim it did.

dakky21 wrote:
Ragian wrote:That makes zero sense. If Pika is scum, I'm not getting town cred for thinking he's town. If Pika is lynched and flips scum, then I'd look like an idiot. He'd have to be lynched and flip town in order for me to gain any town cred.


It makes sense. Just saying you know how to manipulate people and while your reasoning may be correct, it may still be manipulating. If Pika is scum and flips scum, you would be next for lynch, but if he flips town, you would be safe and "I told you so". Then why don't just lynch you first to be sure if your "Pika is town" allegations were correct.

But you said you didn't even know if you'd town-read or scum-read pika if ragian flipped scum. So what information exactly on pika's alignment would ragian being lynched give you?

fped by dakky
I can get why you'd consider switching to strike or me since it turns out your whole argument against pika (the math thing) and ragian (defending pika) isn't valid. But not having a case on pika doesn't mean you have one on other players. It looks to me that you're just grasping at straws, jumping from wagon to wagon and hoping one sticks
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby dakky21 on Sun Jul 21, 2019 5:54 pm

I think it's gg Strike & Beast if I was correct all the way that Pika and Rage ar scum. It's L-1 so just one scum needs to confirm their victory. GG!
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby dakky21 on Sun Jul 21, 2019 6:03 pm

to be honest I was tempted to vote myself just to end this and to show you all how wrong you were, but I won't. Keep suffering.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby dakky21 on Sun Jul 21, 2019 6:24 pm

Unless Rage pika and tobi area really town and you two... Beast and Strike are scum... but I somehow don't see that possible.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby Skoffin on Sun Jul 21, 2019 7:22 pm

Vote Count
6 alive, 4 needed to lynch.

Pikanchion ----
dakky21 ------- Ragoo, strike, beast (3)
Ragian --------- Dakky (1)
strike wolf ----
Beast ---
Tobikera ------
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby Ragian on Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:49 am

Dakky, you've managed to call everyone left scum this day. It's really difficult not to view as scum caught red-handed just trying anything to get off the hook.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby dakky21 on Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:26 am

I agree Rage, but you should know me better. I always do that when I'm town and close to a lynch. Especially when it's LyLo (if there are 2 scum).

18 hours passed since Beast brought me to L-1 and I think both scum are currently on the wagon and Pika and Tobi are really town because they would hammer already if one of them was scum.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby Ragian on Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:29 am

Or they need to make up their minds. Or they haven't been checking the thread.

So, dakky, last chance to change my mind. Who of the three currently voting you are scum?
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby strike wolf on Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:38 am

I'm kinda noticing something. There's a way to classify cases through this game:

1. The ones me and Ragian join at some point. These haven't necessarily been quick but they've been easier to push through the others.

2. The ones at least one of us doesn't join: Pika (???), JFM (town), Tobi (???) which never end up in a lynch.

3. Dakky: Who has proven a slow lynch even for this games standards despite meeting the qualifications for the first one.

The first two could be explained in part that me and Rage have had some influence on the game but the third kinda flies in the face of that theory.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby Ragian on Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:43 am

What's your point, Strike?
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby dakky21 on Mon Jul 22, 2019 11:52 am

Ragian wrote:So, dakky, last chance to change my mind. Who of the three currently voting you are scum?


I still believe it is you + one of them. Perhaps Strike because he just made a point.

strike wolf wrote:1. The ones me and Ragian join at some point. These haven't necessarily been quick but they've been easier to push through the others.


You two were able to steer the game in a wanted direction, as he would say, you two were the most influential. Needless to say that you have almost double the amount of posts than me (157 vs 80) and I don't remember when a VT was such active. It's all meta though.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby Ragian on Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:00 pm

Bullshit, you've played with me as vt before. The difference here is everyone else not posting.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby dakky21 on Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:02 pm

BTW, one thing came across my mind...

Pikanchion wrote:There cannot be more than two Mafia players as Town would have lost already when jfm10 was killed, and we are not at LyLo, we are at MyLo (unless Mafia have been saving a one-shot bonus kill). That said, No Lynch is of limited benefit (if any) given I am the only Town Power Role now.


How Pika knows he is the only Town power role now?
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby ZaBeast on Mon Jul 22, 2019 12:32 pm

dakky21 wrote:BTW, one thing came across my mind...

Pikanchion wrote:There cannot be more than two Mafia players as Town would have lost already when jfm10 was killed, and we are not at LyLo, we are at MyLo (unless Mafia have been saving a one-shot bonus kill). That said, No Lynch is of limited benefit (if any) given I am the only Town Power Role now.


How Pika knows he is the only Town power role now?

Because nobody else claimed to have one?
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby Skoffin on Mon Jul 22, 2019 8:40 pm

Absolutely everyone needs to post more and get this game sorted, especially so close to end game. I'll be prodding pika and Tobi.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby Pikanchion on Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:01 pm

dakky21 wrote:BTW, one thing came across my mind...
Pikanchion wrote:There cannot be more than two Mafia players as Town would have lost already when jfm10 was killed, and we are not at LyLo, we are at MyLo (unless Mafia have been saving a one-shot bonus kill). That said, No Lynch is of limited benefit (if any) given I am the only Town Power Role now.

How Pika knows he is the only Town power role now?

And which of the five claimed VTs do you propose is secretly a Town Power Role?


strike wolf wrote:I'm kinda noticing something. There's a way to classify cases through this game:

1. The ones me and Ragian join at some point. These haven't necessarily been quick but they've been easier to push through the others.

2. The ones at least one of us doesn't join: Pika (???), JFM (town), Tobi (???) which never end up in a lynch.

3. Dakky: Who has proven a slow lynch even for this games standards despite meeting the qualifications for the first one.

The first two could be explained in part that me and Rage have had some influence on the game but the third kinda flies in the face of that theory.

So there's probably a scum team of two, and when two specific players vote for somebody that lynch tends to be successful :thinking:
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby dakky21 on Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:09 pm

This should be easy. If Pika isn't hammering me (you have 12 hrs when I will hammer myself) then Ragoo might be town as well and the scum team of two might me Beast and Tobi. Strike made valid points and why do that if you're scum...
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby dakky21 on Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:17 pm

But it doesn't really matter, I still think Ragoo + Pika are scum. Just saying.
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby dakky21 on Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:20 pm

I'm drunk as hell but if Pika hammered it would be game over but I don't understand why he did not? Then Ragina + someone else? Or really tobi and beast ?
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby Tobikera on Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:35 pm

OK, I've been duly prodded by the mod.
I have been following along, but it's been so repetitious, I fell into a dissociative fugue, followed by malaise and overall fatigue.
Yes, I like those "gue" words.

I have never voted for dakky....felt that he was a bit off the wall, but not scum. I could be wrong.
I've been studiously ignoring dakky's several attempts to paint me black.
I was curious about Pika's choice of people to watch, and mindful that he could still be a mafia watcher.
I have no feelings for SW or ZB...no spider web senses on alert...so voting for one of them would be shots in the dark.
That leaves me with Sir Ragian, of whom I have been suspicious since the beginning with his over-the-top exclamations.
But, his claim seemed plausible.....
I wish someone nifty at these things would summarize everyone who voted for the folks who are now dearly departed. Unlike a previous game, I don't want to come to the end of this one and find out "it was obvious" if you just perused the statistics.

Until then, I return to my first instincts:
VOTE RAGIAN
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Lieutenant Tobikera
 
Posts: 323
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 9:53 am
Location: Western Panamanian Highlands
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Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby Tobikera on Mon Jul 22, 2019 10:09 pm

OK, the response was not overwhelming at 10 PM on a Monday night; and I wasn't tired yet so I searched:

Razorvich: Ragian, jfm, pika, dakky, aage, dgz
aage: Night killed
dgz345: Beast, blacky, Ragian, strike, dakky
Blacky365: Night killed
jfm: mod killed


The only thing you can really say, but not prove, is that both Ragian and dakky voted for two who were lynched. Also, dakky hammered one townie.
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Lieutenant Tobikera
 
Posts: 323
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 9:53 am
Location: Western Panamanian Highlands
Medals: 107
Standard Achievement (4) Doubles Achievement (4) Triples Achievement (3) Quadruples Achievement (3) Terminator Achievement (3)
Assassin Achievement (4) Manual Troops Achievement (2) Freestyle Achievement (3) Polymorphic Achievement (1) Nuclear Spoils Achievement (2)
Fog of War Achievement (4) Trench Warfare Achievement (2) Speed Achievement (4) Teammate Achievement (2) Random Map Achievement (2)
Cross-Map Achievement (3) Beta Map Achievement (1) Bot Achievement (3) Ratings Achievement (4) Tournament Achievement (17)
General Achievement (6) Clan Achievement (22) Challenge Achievement (8)

Re: Customer @#%$&**^% Service Mafia Day 4

Postby Tobikera on Mon Jul 22, 2019 10:16 pm

I guess you can say one more thing (at least). Currently, Ragian has his vote on dakky, and vice-versa. If dakky flips town (and the game is not over), then I feel better about my Ragian vote. However, if dakky flips scum, then I need to rethink.
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Lieutenant Tobikera
 
Posts: 323
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 9:53 am
Location: Western Panamanian Highlands
Medals: 107
Standard Achievement (4) Doubles Achievement (4) Triples Achievement (3) Quadruples Achievement (3) Terminator Achievement (3)
Assassin Achievement (4) Manual Troops Achievement (2) Freestyle Achievement (3) Polymorphic Achievement (1) Nuclear Spoils Achievement (2)
Fog of War Achievement (4) Trench Warfare Achievement (2) Speed Achievement (4) Teammate Achievement (2) Random Map Achievement (2)
Cross-Map Achievement (3) Beta Map Achievement (1) Bot Achievement (3) Ratings Achievement (4) Tournament Achievement (17)
General Achievement (6) Clan Achievement (22) Challenge Achievement (8)

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