strike wolf wrote:Dakky. Your math is wrong. Like unbelievably wrong. Its not 1 out of whatever number. Its 5 out of 9 first night (Raz is dead, Pika wouldnt watch himself). 5 out of 7 night 2 (sage, Raz and DGZ dead, exclude pika). 5 out of 7 last night (No deaths night 2 or day 3).
So each individual night has >50% chance of him hitting someone who is currently still alive.
Secondly, would it have really mattered if he had claimed to visit DGZ, JFM or Blacky Night 1 or Blacky/JFM N2?
It's not 5 out of 9 or 7 or whatever. First day Raz lynched. Pika won't target himself. That leaves him 9 possible targets, that is true. But that is 1 out of 9 to hit the killer who will eventually night kill aage. Same for the later nights. Math is in this case correct and he had a lot more chance to hit wrong people than right one. That is correct, I already said my initial calculation was wrong.
No, it wouldn't matter if he had hit any townie. I was thinking watcher = tracker. I also said before I thought that was the same.
Ragian wrote:That makes zero sense. If Pika is scum, I'm not getting town cred for thinking he's town. If Pika is lynched and flips scum, then I'd look like an idiot. He'd have to be lynched and flip town in order for me to gain any town cred.
It makes sense. Just saying you know how to manipulate people and while your reasoning may be correct, it may still be manipulating. If Pika is scum and flips scum, you would be next for lynch, but if he flips town, you would be safe and "I told you so". Then why don't just lynch you first to be sure if your "Pika is town" allegations were correct.