Ragian wrote:I get (some) maths, but the point I'm making is how to pinpoint scum when not lynching...
The number of mislynches before losing does not change if you No Lynch on an even number of players alive, so the number of lynches made overall during the game does not change, and the Town gets the same amount of lynch-result based information either way, but with an additional Mafia kill to analyse.
Say you have 6 players left.
-Lynching gives one lynch worth of actionable information plus whatever may be assessed by the night kill (primarily that the person killed is not the Mafia, but also pattern analysis to some extent), then you have 4 players left the next day, lynching again ends the game one way or another. Overall you gain the information from only one lynch and one night kill before the game ends.
-Not lynching gives whatever may be assessed by the night kill and leaves us with 5 remaining, Town can then lynch, gaining one lynch worth of actionable information plus what can be gleamed from an additional
night kill. Then you have 3 players left and the game will end that night. Overall you gain the information from one lynch and two
night kills before the game ends. You also have an additional day worth of talking in the thread.
Town never benefits in any way by lynching on an even number of players compared to the next odd number down. Think of it this way, if one were to treat the No Lynch day and night that follows as having never happened then compared to a game where the Town lynched every night:
1. The game lasts the same number of days and nights
2. The game features the same number of lynches
3. The game will have the same number of night kills
4. Town will have a higher probability of lynching correctly every single night