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Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby aage on Sat Aug 10, 2019 5:47 pm

PMs have been sent.


Since this is an open setup, I shall disclose to you the following:
There are two mafia members. They have a night kill.
This means the townies have about 35% 30% chance to win in random lynches. In other words, you townies will likely lose if you do nothing.


Go nuts.

Players:
1. jfm10
2. dgz345
3. BuJaber
4. blacky365
5. Ragian
6. Strike Wolf
7. Skoffin
8. Pikanchion
9. Bernie Sanders
10. DDS
Last edited by aage on Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:18 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby BuJaber on Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:33 pm

Hello Ragian

vote ragian

:mrgreen:
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Pikanchion on Sat Aug 10, 2019 7:34 pm

Vote: Skoffin

Also No Lynch is the correct thing to do today.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Skoffin on Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:37 pm

vote pika

Technically he is correct
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Pikanchion on Sat Aug 10, 2019 9:58 pm

Skoffin wrote:Technically he is correct

Then why aren't you voting the same way as me? >:(
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Ragian on Sun Aug 11, 2019 12:42 am

Hi BuJ

Vote BuJ

Why is no lynch the way to go? It's something math based, I'm sure, but I suck at math.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby dgz345 on Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:38 am

Hi aage

Vote aage

Guess the customs say that aage dies first.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby dgz345 on Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:39 am

Wait aage is the mod...

Unvote

Guess he found a way no not get killed D1/N1 :oops: :lol:
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby strike wolf on Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:03 am

Well judging by the intro this will surely be an elaborate lengthy and provocative game.

Vote DGZ because his name starts with D and Aage robbed me of my chance to vote Dakky.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.


Strike wolf need brain for smart making.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby dgz345 on Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:11 am

Ragian wrote:Hi BuJ

Vote BuJ

Why is no lynch the way to go? It's something math based, I'm sure, but I suck at math.


Poor Ragian and his maths.

Short answer. Last day will be with 5 players alive instead of 6 if no mafia dies.

And the same that the days before it will be 7 alive instead of 8

Therfor the chance will be a small bit better to lynch for scum.

2 in 7 instead of 8
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby dgz345 on Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:14 am

strike wolf wrote:Well judging by the intro this will surely be an elaborate lengthy and provocative game.

Vote DGZ because his name starts with D and Aage robbed me of my chance to vote Dakky.


You should vote DDS instead. He got 2 D in his name

Vote strike wolf

For not looking at the player list correctly!
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby BuJaber on Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:31 am

I know the math and I agree to it but I don't know why day 1?

Later on in the game you can learn from NK choices therefore can force scum to make suboptimal lynches.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby BuJaber on Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:32 am

This is in a vanilla game I mean.. there aren't any PRs to try to save for a night action
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Pikanchion on Sun Aug 11, 2019 8:50 am

Ragian wrote:Why is no lynch the way to go? It's something math based, I'm sure, but I suck at math.
BuJaber wrote:I know the math and I agree to it but I don't know why day 1?

Later on in the game you can learn from NK choices therefore can force scum to make suboptimal lynches.
BuJaber wrote:This is in a vanilla game I mean.. there aren't any PRs to try to save for a night action


There's a reason I explained this all before the game started, the benefit from doing this is applied every single lynch after we no lynch so the earlier the better.
Pikanchion wrote:Town never benefits in any way by lynching on an even number of players compared to the next odd number down. Think of it this way, if one were to treat the No Lynch day and night that follows as having never happened then compared to a game where the Town lynched every night:
1. The game lasts the same number of days and nights
2. The game features the same number of lynches
3. The game will have the same number of night kills
However!
4. Town will have a higher probability of lynching correctly every single night.


Whether we lynch or not today, Town gets three lynches before game over if Mafia don't get lynched, we have a choice between those lynches being at 20%, 25%, and 33.3%, or being at 22.2%, 28.6%, and 40%. Verifying this is exceptionally simple. Why would you ever pick the former unless you're scum?

I cannot be bothered arguing this any further (which is the main reason I brought this up before the game started — this is objectively the correct way to do things in this setup, and I'd rather risk having made the correct argument for Town to win and end up quietly dropping it in the case I roll Mafia, than end up making the correct argument only later as Town with people questioning my motives). So basically from this point on I will voting exclusively No Lynch or for anybody who argues for lynching until the total number of players is odd during a day phase.

Unvote: Skoffin
Vote: No Lynch




Also aage: Town has only a 29.84% chance of wining, not 35.21% (the T column is Town players, not Total players).
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby BuJaber on Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:43 am

Yeah to be honest I only skimmed the thread after signing up.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Ragian on Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:55 am

Pikanchion wrote:
Ragian wrote:Why is no lynch the way to go? It's something math based, I'm sure, but I suck at math.
BuJaber wrote:I know the math and I agree to it but I don't know why day 1?

Later on in the game you can learn from NK choices therefore can force scum to make suboptimal lynches.
BuJaber wrote:This is in a vanilla game I mean.. there aren't any PRs to try to save for a night action


There's a reason I explained this all before the game started, the benefit from doing this is applied every single lynch after we no lynch so the earlier the better.
Pikanchion wrote:Town never benefits in any way by lynching on an even number of players compared to the next odd number down. Think of it this way, if one were to treat the No Lynch day and night that follows as having never happened then compared to a game where the Town lynched every night:
1. The game lasts the same number of days and nights
2. The game features the same number of lynches
3. The game will have the same number of night kills
However!
4. Town will have a higher probability of lynching correctly every single night.


Whether we lynch or not today, Town gets three lynches before game over if Mafia don't get lynched, we have a choice between those lynches being at 20%, 25%, and 33.3%, or being at 22.2%, 28.6%, and 40%. Verifying this is exceptionally simple. Why would you ever pick the former unless you're scum?

I cannot be bothered arguing this any further (which is the main reason I brought this up before the game started — this is objectively the correct way to do things in this setup, and I'd rather risk having made the correct argument for Town to win and end up quietly dropping it in the case I roll Mafia, than end up making the correct argument only later as Town with people questioning my motives). So basically from this point on I will voting exclusively No Lynch or for anybody who argues for lynching until the total number of players is odd during a day phase.

Unvote: Skoffin
Vote: No Lynch




Also aage: Town has only a 29.84% chance of wining, not 35.21% (the T column is Town players, not Total players).

I don't think anyone asked to argue this. I asked for a clarification because I don't remember whatever you say before a game starts. Mainly because it's before the game starts. Now, get your knickers out of that Gordian knot and turn the arrogance down to average, please ;)

unvote vote Pika
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Ragian on Sun Aug 11, 2019 9:56 am

unvote vote no lynch

Do you also want no talking D1?
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby dgz345 on Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:16 am

As there is no roles in this game I say we nomitate some

I nominate Ragian as the role "mumbling oatmeal townie"

I nominate pika as the role "loquacious townie"



Unvote vote no lynch
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Pikanchion on Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:32 am

Ragian wrote:Do you also want no talking D1?

I don't care one way or the other but if we're planning not to lynch it's questionable what worth any discussion today will be. If we talk a lot we invite WIFOM situations where people try to guess if something talked about influenced the choice for N1 kill, if we don't then we start D2 as if it's a day one. Either way the lynch D2 is likely to be pretty random (and even if we don't talk much today there's a decent chance of people trying to discern who is scum based on who was killed as the basis for the D2 lynch) so it's really of little consequence if we talk a lot or a little today.

I'm just tired of having to have a lengthy discussion about whether it's worth lynching or not day one every single game when the choice is pretty clear cut most of the time.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby dgz345 on Sun Aug 11, 2019 10:44 am

You mean like if Ragian isn't killed during night he's mafia :)?
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby aage on Sun Aug 11, 2019 11:16 am

Pikanchion wrote:Also aage: Town has only a 29.84% chance of wining, not 35.21% (the T column is Town players, not Total players).

Oops, must've misread the table last night. I stand corrected.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby dgz345 on Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:50 pm

Looks like my chance to actually win a forum mafia went down with ~5 percent units.

(I just trusted aage)
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Ragian on Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:31 pm

Let everyone check in, though.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby aage on Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:21 pm

Remember that everyone who hasn't posted during a game day gets killed as well. You guys are fully in control in this regard, if the majority of town doesn't want to wait for everyone to check in then that is their choice to make if they are willing to accept the consequences.

I'm warning you of this because I didn't design that rule to create a "gotcha" situation day one where like four people inadvertently die because you forgot about this. You are free to do it, if that is your choice.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Pikanchion on Sun Aug 11, 2019 4:50 pm

Well again, kills from this mechanic would be favourable for Town in all likelihood, so I'm all for it. If the six of us who have posted all voted No Lynch now we would kill four players, and if that wasn't a win, another would be killed by the remaining mafia player(s), leaving us with five players remaining. This should result in a 42.67% win rate for Town overall (2 Mafia survive 33.33% of the time resulting in a 13.33% win rate, 1 Mafia survives 53.33% of the time resulting in a 46.67% win rate, no mafia survive 13.33% of the time resulting in a 100% win rate, the aggregate of these results [0.33*0.13+0.53*0.47+0.13*1=~0.43] is a 42.67% Town win rate).
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