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Re: Second Greek Election to Come June 17

Postby Phatscotty on Wed Jun 13, 2012 1:49 pm

Fruitcake wrote:
GreecePwns wrote:Actually there is no run on the banks in Greece, but thanks for your input. I'll keep it on file for the next 6 months in case any openings are available.

An opinion poll released this morning shows that a SYRIZA-Democratic Left anti-bailout coalition is almost possible, and that if that does not work, SYRIZA can rule as a minority government. The poll predicts the following parliament:

SYRIZA 124
ND 65
PASOK 47
Independent Greeks 25
KKE 19
Democratic Left 19
Golden Dawn 19


This may be so, but the flight of capital from Greece is rising to dizzy heights.

Up to a few days ago it was steadily running at around EUR 100M a day....the best 'guess' in the markets this week is it is running at around 5 times that daily. This 'guess' isn't normally far from the reality of the situation as it is based on fund flows and FX transactions originating from that part of the world amongst other influences.

EUR 500M a day is a lot in any one's economy, especially one the size Greece.

I notice the 'great Euro rally' that was trumpeted by Eurozone based traders on Monday quickly reversed over the last 2 days wiping out any gains made after the Spailout.


I heard Greeks took out a billion in 1 day just recently....
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Re: Second Greek Election to Come June 17

Postby MeDeFe on Fri Jun 15, 2012 2:12 pm

GreecePwns wrote:SYRIZA (Source: Athens News)
Tsipras said he would also introduce measures to relieve the debt burden of overborrowed households and cut valued added tax (VAT), especially on basic food items.

He also said that the bailout memorandum should be abandoned, saying it had failed to take the country out of its economic crisis and would prevent it from having access to financial markets this decade.

"The first action of the government of the left will be the annulment of the memorandum and the implement[ed] laws," he said.

The memorandum, he continued, would be replaced "with a national recovery plan for economic and social growth and productive reconstruction".

In a speech replete with promises and commitments, he also promised to raise the minimum wage back to its original 751 euros and to unemployment benefit to 461.50 euros.

Moreover, unemployment benefits would be paid for two years, instead of the current twelve months.

The Syriza leader also said banks receiving recapitalisation from the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund could face nationalization.

Well, I doubt they'll make things any worse than they are already, and maybe they'll even be able to improve some.
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Re: Second Greek Election to Come June 17

Postby Phatscotty on Sat Jun 16, 2012 3:54 am

I bet Greece elects more Nazi's and Communists. Maybe that will fix the main problem of rich Greeks destroying the world economy because they didn't pay all of their taxes that the greedy government demanded. If people want to scale the Greek crisis to something relative, Niall Ferguson is going with the Cuban Missile Crisis 8-[

Fruitcake is a voice I respect and trust. FC would you mind putting in 2 cents on this take?
As the Greek elections draw closer, bankers, governments, and investors are preparing for the possibility of the ailing country dropping the euro as its currency, a move that could spread turmoil throughout the global financial system.

The worst-case scenario envisions governments defaulting on their debts, a run on
European banks and a worldwide credit crunch reminiscent
of the financial crisis in the fall of 2008.

A Greek election on Sunday will go a long way toward determining whether it happens. Syriza, a party opposed to the restrictions placed on Greece in exchange for a bailout from European neighbors, could do well.

In the meantime, banks and investors have sketched out the ripple effects if Greece were to leave the euro.

They think the path of a full-blown crisis would start in Greece, quickly move to the rest of Europe, and then hit the U.S. Stocks and oil would plunge, the euro would sink against the U.S. dollar, and big banks would uncover losses on complex trades.

What would Greece’s exit look like? In the worst-case scenario, it starts off messy.

The government resurrects the Greek currency, the drachma, and says each drachma equals one euro. However, currency markets would treat it differently. Banks’ foreign-exchange experts expect the drachma would plunge to half the value of the euro soon after its debut.

For Greeks, that would likely mean surging inflation — 35 percent in the first year, according to some estimates. The country is a net importer, and would have to pay more for oil, medical equipment, and anything else coming from abroad.

The Greek central bank would also need to print more drachmas once the country got locked out of lending markets, says Athanasios Vamvakidis, foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch in London.

Greece’s government and banks currently survive on international aid. “Without access to markets, they have to print money,” he says.

That’s one reason analysts say the switch to a drachma would lead the country to default on its government debt, possibly triggering losses for the European Central Bank, and other international lenders.

Most assume foreign banks would have to write off loans to Greek businesses, too. Why would Greeks pay off foreign debts that effectively double when the drachma drops by half?

Say a small shop owner in Athens has a €50,000 business loan from a French bank. She also has €50,000 in savings in a Greek bank. The Greek government turns her savings into 50,000 drachma.

If the new currency fell by 50 percent to the euro as expected, her savings would suddenly be worth €25,000. But she would still owe €50,000 to the French bank.

European banks would take a direct blow. They’ve managed to shed much of their Greek debt but still held $65 billion, mainly in loans to Greek corporations, at the end of last year, according to an analysis by Nomura, a financial services company. French banks have the most to lose.

ACT II:

Here’s where things get scary.

The European Central Bank and European Union would have to persuade bond investors that they will keep Portugal, Spain, and Italy from following Greece out the door. Otherwise borrowing costs for those countries would shoot higher.

“If they fail to reassure bond investors, all of the nightmare scenarios come into play,” says Robert Shapiro, a former U.S. undersecretary of commerce in the Clinton administration.

Analysts agree that the so-called firewall built to stop the crisis from spreading needs more firepower.

Much of the €248 billion ($310 billion) left in the European Financial Stability Facility, one European bailout fund, was pledged by the same countries that may wind up needing it, Vamvakidis says.

There‘s also a European Stability Mechanism that’s supposed to be up and running next month, but Germany has yet to sign off on it.

A fast-spreading crisis is known in financial circles as contagion — a term borrowed from medicine and familiar to anyone who has watched a disaster movie about killer viruses on the loose.Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Greece Leaving the Euro (But Were Afraid to Ask)

“It’s like a disease that spreads on contact,” says Mark Blythe, professor of international political economy at Brown University.

The bond market, where banks, traders and governments cross paths, provides the setting. If Greece dropped the euro, traders would become more suspicious of Spain, Portugal and Italy and sell those countries’ government bonds, pushing their prices down and
driving their interest rates up.

Higher borrowing costs squeeze those countries’ budgets and push them deeper into recession. Plunging bond prices imperil Europe’s already troubled banks, which stockpiled government bonds when they were considered safe.

At this point, the risk would be high for a run on banks throughout Europe. People would stampede to their banks to withdraw what they can. Analysts and investors say that’s the biggest fear.

People in Spain, for example, have already seen what’s happened in Greece and have started pulling euros out of their accounts in fear the country will switch back to cheaper pesetas.

“People see their banks in trouble,” Shapiro says.

In less frantic times, the government would come to the rescue with cash or take over the banks. European countries have already committed to lend up to $125 billion to Spain’s banks to help save them.

But all this is happening in the middle of a government debt crisis, and if the crisis gets worse, the Spanish or Italian governments couldn’t borrow enough cash from investors to save the day.

“They can’t afford to guarantee deposits or money market balances,” Shapiro says. “They don’t have the ability to borrow internationally from bond markets. Where are they going to get the funds?”

From here, the crisis could easily snowball: Banks could fail, the surviving banks could stop lending to each other, and a credit freeze could shut down Europe as assuredly as a blizzard did last winter.

One way to stem the contagion would be French President François Hollande’s so-called eurobonds (bonds backed by all 17 euro countries). They could be sold to raise money for troubled European governments.

Germany, which has the strongest economy of the euro countries, has fought the eurobond suggestion. However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that she might consider Hollande’s idea if eurozone leaders agree to certain proposals.

Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Greece Leaving the Euro (But Were Afraid to Ask)Angela Merkel and François Hollande in Brussels
with Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann

The International Monetary Fund would probably pitch in. Peter Tchir, who runs TF Market Advisors, worries that the IMF may take a loss on the roughly $28 billion it has already loaned to Greece.

Cash-strapped European governments should be able to turn to the IMF for help, but the IMF’s money comes from its 188 member countries. Tchir says that the U.S. and other countries may balk if the IMF asks for help supporting Europe.

“People are happy to put money in if they think they won’t lose it,” Tchir says. “In this case, the IMF loses money, then everybody gets scared.”

ACT III:

A full-blown crisis would cross the Atlantic through the dense web of contracts, loans, and other financial transactions that tie European banks to those in the U.S., experts say.

Blythe, the professor at Brown, believes credit default swaps, the complex financial instruments made infamous by the 2008 financial crisis, would provide the path.

The swaps were created as a sort of insurance for loans. After lending money to a business or government, investors take out insurance on the loan. If the borrower runs into trouble and can’t pay – say, the government of Spain defaults – the banks that sold the insurance cover the loss.

A $2 billion trading loss that JPMorgan Chase revealed in May, traced to a hedge against the Europe crisis, shows just how easy it is for even the safest and savviest of banks to slip up.

And it doesn’t even take a default for a credit default swap to go bad.

If traders think other countries will follow Greece, they’ll drive up borrowing rates by selling government bonds, which also pushes up the cost of insuring their debt. That’s similar to how your neighborhood insurance agent handles a teenage driver.

Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Greece Leaving the Euro (But Were Afraid to Ask)In the derivatives market, where credit default swaps are traded, there’s a twist. When markets treat Spain like a bad credit risk, those who took out insurance on Spanish debt to protect against a default can force the banks that sold the insurance to prove they can make good on the claim.

To do that, banks cash out something else — U.S. government debt, gold, or anything easy to sell. In normal times, it’s no big deal. In a crisis, it can lead to a cascade of selling, spreading trouble from one market to another.

Another problem: It’s not clear how much U.S. banks have at risk to Europe through credit default swaps, because regulations let banks keep that information a secret.

“You could have American banks up to their necks in CDS liabilities,” Blythe says. “We don’t even know.”

There’s a wide variety of other paths the turmoil could take into the U.S.

Money market mutual funds, which hold more than $2.5 trillion, have an estimated 15 percent of their investments in Europe. European banks are also large buyers of U.S. mortgage bonds. If they’re forced to sell them, mortgage rates could jump, imperiling the U.S. housing market. Frightened banks might also pull the credit lines companies depend on for global trade.

So, what’s the good news? Many analysts don’t think the crisis will get that far. But that’s about it.

Just in case the worst comes to pass, analysts at Barclay’s have attempted to estimate the fallout. They compare it to the days after the investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed in September 2008. This time, they project that oil prices would fall to $50, stock markets outside of Europe would plunge 30 percent, and the dollar would soar to trade nearly even with the euro.

Blythe is skeptical that it will get this bad, because he hopes the previous financial crisis has left governments and central banks prepared.

However the Greek story ends, Blythe believes it’s bound to be ugly. Putting 17 countries together to share a common currency worked well when Europe prospered. Now that they’re struggling, “all the design flaws are becoming apparent,” he says. Every solution that’s supposed to fix a problem creates another problem.

Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Greece Leaving the Euro (But Were Afraid to Ask)The proposed $125 billion loan to save Spanish banks, for instance, adds to the debt burden of Spain and other troubled European countries, which sent their borrowing costs higher and put a tighter squeeze on their budgets.

“The euro itself,” Blythe says, “is a bloody doomsday machine.”
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Re: Second Greek Election to Come June 17

Postby GreecePwns on Sat Jun 16, 2012 7:53 am

You've confirmed pretty much everything I've told you. It really does have nothing to do with "big government," no matter how much you try to shove that perspective down everyone's throats.
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Re: Second Greek Election to Come June 17

Postby Phatscotty on Sat Jun 16, 2012 1:01 pm

GreecePwns wrote:You've confirmed pretty much everything I've told you. It really does have nothing to do with "big government," no matter how much you try to shove that perspective down everyone's throats.


I state the fact that Greek GDP rose 4-5% annually from 2000-2008, and government spending rose 45-50% annually from 2000-2008. Sounds like big government to me, and I'm not shoving anything anywhere. I'm posting the facts. I am confident it's a no brainer for most people reading this.

Who is responsible for gov't spending increasing 45-50% every year between 2000-2008? Did that spending make gov't smaller?
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Re: Second Greek Election to Come June 17

Postby saxitoxin on Sat Jun 16, 2012 1:13 pm

Gideon Rachman says in his yesterday column in the Financial Times that democratic traditions in Germany are too fragile and the German government - without UK support on the issue of Greek/Italian/Spanish-insolvency - will be taken over by Nazis.

We Isolate and Overload Germany at Our Own Peril

While Ms Merkel’s handling of the crisis has not been faultless (whose has?), she has one huge achievement to her name. She has prevented the political extremes from gaining a foothold in the country. Anybody who thinks that is a phantom danger should take a look at Germany’s neighbours. Germany has all the conditions for a similar backlash. And yet despite the burdens and risks that Germany has already taken on, the country’s government finds itself abused for not doing even more. Isolating and berating Berlin, while trying to force the country to underwrite the finances of the whole of the eurozone, is a politically dangerous course. The rise of far-right nationalists in Greece or the Netherlands is deeply regrettable. The rise of the far right in Germany would be a disaster!

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/bfc6959c ... z1xcOP1F4m
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Re: Second Greek Election to Come June 17

Postby Phatscotty on Sat Jun 16, 2012 5:25 pm

Best of Luck Greece

Love this headline...
Central Banks Promise To Save World On Monday If Greece Elects A Crazy Person This Weekend
Stella Dawson, Reuters


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Re: Greek Polls Closing Very Soon

Postby GreecePwns on Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:11 am

Greek polls are set to close soon...you can follow the vote counting here. The predicted collapse of Golden Dawn following the live TV incident from a couple of weeks ago has everyone wondering where their previous voters will go. A poll of Golden Dawn voters after the incident states that ~60% of their voters did not agree with their ideology, and were simply looking for an alternative to the major parties. This indicates that few of them will be going back to New Democracy or PASOK (the Golden Dawn leader made a habit of attacking Samaras, but not the other leaders for some reason). I predict the smaller parties will get a bump from these developments, with Independent Greeks receiving the biggest boost.
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Re: Greek Polls Closing Very Soon

Postby GreecePwns on Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:21 am

First exit poll by Mega TV: ND 27.5-30.5, SYRIZA 27-30, PASOK 10-12, Ind Gr 6-7.5, Golden Dawn 6-7.5, Dem Left 5.5-6.5, KKE 5-6
First exit poll by Star Channel: ND 27-30, SYRIZA 26-29, PASOK 10-12, Ind Greeks 6-8, Golden Dawn 6-8, Dem Left 6-7, KKE 5-6
Average: ND 28.75, SYRIZA 28, PASOK 11, Ind Greeks 6.875, Golden Dawn 6.875, Dem Left 6.25, KKE 5.5

How wrong could I have been? Golden Dawn is unaffected by the recent events. More important is that the two parties are just separated by half a percent at the top. A combination of these polls produces the following Parliament:

ND 127
SYRIZA 75
PASOK 29
Ind Greek 18
Golden Dawn 18
Dem Left 17
KKE 17

More exit polls in an hour and first official results in 2 1/2 hours.

Scenario 1 - ND Win: ND easily forms government with PASOK and either Independent Greeks or Democratic Left (or both, if needed).
Scenario 2 - SYRIZA Win: SYRIZA and Dem Left clearly partners as they aggressively try to court either Independent Greeks or PASOK.
Scenario 3 - Another election.

It's clear that PASOK will be kingmaker in this election, and probably can be swayed to join either side in government.
Last edited by GreecePwns on Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:32 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Greek Polls Closing Very Soon

Postby Phatscotty on Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:24 am

Our differences in opinions aside, thanks for doing lots of good work on this thread

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Re: Greek Polls Closing Very Soon

Postby saxitoxin on Sun Jun 17, 2012 12:18 pm

GreecePwns wrote:First exit poll by Mega TV: ND 27.5-30.5, SYRIZA 27-30, PASOK 10-12, Ind Gr 6-7.5, Golden Dawn 6-7.5, Dem Left 5.5-6.5, KKE 5-6
First exit poll by Star Channel: ND 27-30, SYRIZA 26-29, PASOK 10-12, Ind Greeks 6-8, Golden Dawn 6-8, Dem Left 6-7, KKE 5-6
Average: ND 28.75, SYRIZA 28, PASOK 11, Ind Greeks 6.875, Golden Dawn 6.875, Dem Left 6.25, KKE 5.5

How wrong could I have been? Golden Dawn is unaffected by the recent events. More important is that the two parties are just separated by half a percent at the top. A combination of these polls produces the following Parliament:

ND 127
SYRIZA 75
PASOK 29
Ind Greek 18
Golden Dawn 18
Dem Left 17
KKE 17

More exit polls in an hour and first official results in 2 1/2 hours.

Scenario 1 - ND Win: ND easily forms government with PASOK and either Independent Greeks or Democratic Left (or both, if needed).
Scenario 2 - SYRIZA Win: SYRIZA and Dem Left clearly partners as they aggressively try to court either Independent Greeks or PASOK.
Scenario 3 - Another election.

It's clear that PASOK will be kingmaker in this election, and probably can be swayed to join either side in government.


GP - how long do you expect a ND-PASOK government could hobble along before another election becomes necessary? Six months or a year?

Would ND ever consider a ND-Independent Greeks-Golden Dawn alliance?
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Re: Greek Polls Closing Very Soon

Postby GreecePwns on Sun Jun 17, 2012 12:31 pm

The idea being thrown around is to have any new government last at least until the European elections in 2014. This is something that is pretty set in stone.

No one would consider ever approaching Golden Dawn and Golden Dawn wouldn't consider approaching anyone else.
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Re: Greek Polls Closing Very Soon

Postby GreecePwns on Sun Jun 17, 2012 1:46 pm

After a quarter of the votes counted ND held a five percent lead but the lead has been slowly shrinking to now 2.4 percent.
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Re: Greek Polls Closing Very Soon

Postby GreecePwns on Sun Jun 17, 2012 5:13 pm

It has become clear that New Democracy will finish the election in first place. The resulting government will almost definitely be ND-PASOK, with a possibility of Independent Greeks and Democratic Left joining the coalition for the sake of solidity. The government will last at least two years. This government will likely take an approach of renegotiation of the bailout terms, but only in order add measures that focus more on economic growth and less on across the board cuts. In all likelihood the bailout terms will be carried out as originally planned.
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Re: Greek Polls Closing Very Soon

Postby patches70 on Sun Jun 17, 2012 6:07 pm

PASOK has said they won't join in a coalition government with ND unless Syriza joins as well. Syriza replied that they will not join with a coalition with ND.

So ND is going to have to come to an agreement with the remaining parties, including the Neo Nazi New Dawn or the communists.

Look forward to another Greek election sometime in August. Then maybe another, and another, and another, until there is nothing left to plunder from Greece.

http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/2012/0 ... xit-polls/
09:16 pm

Next Question: What government?

PASOK official Anna Diamantopoulou said that PASOK would not join a coalition government without SYRIZA.

PASOK considers citizens have downvoted the party’s policies therefore it can not join a pure ND-PASOK government.
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Re: Greek Polls Closing Very Soon

Postby GreecePwns on Sun Jun 17, 2012 6:11 pm

This, as I see it, is merely posturing. All this time the two parties had acted as one and the same, and now PASOK wants SYRIZA to be involved? It is just a ploy to get Venizelos in the Prime Ministers' seat more than anything (it is possible that Samaras is not Prime Minister if they are to seek for as many coalition partners as possible. There will be some exaggerated statements in the coming days, but in the end I see the actual agreement happening pretty smoothly.
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Re: Greek Polls Closing Very Soon

Postby patches70 on Sun Jun 17, 2012 6:32 pm

So Greece, which widely reviles the austerity measures put onto them, will be all nice and happy with the pro-bailout ND party?

An ND led government means more austerity, more state cuts, more unemployed, more taxes and more pain. A vote for ND is a fear of Drachmatization. The Greeks want to stay in the Euro, but don't want the austerity that comes with that.

A vote for Syriza is the idea that through brinksmanship, threat of Euro collapse, Greece can negotiate better terms and a more favorable bailout position.
The Greek people won't put up with the roadmap laid out by the other EU nations. If ND makes a government and goes along with the "plan" then the situation will just get worse in Greece.

It's that notion of "stay in the EU but not have to go through the austerity" that is going to put the real hamper on coming to an agreement to form a government. PASOK took a horrible beating not long ago, they know that just going with the flow of what the TPTB want is going to mean PASOK gets a further trouncing in future elections. With Syriza they can say they tried to fight against the austerity that the Greek people hate with a passion. New Democracy has been the front man for the ECB.

Let us not forget exactly why there is this Greek election in the first place. The hatred of the austerity measures forced upon them, the very austerity that the ND is going to keep imposing on the Greek people.

We'll see though. No matter what, the troubles in Greece are only going to get worse before they have any hope of getting better, either way.
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Re: ND-PASOK Close to Reaching Gov't Deal, Dem Left Could Jo

Postby GreecePwns on Mon Jun 18, 2012 3:06 pm

The final seat distribution, with the May 6 results in parentheses, followed by 2009 results:

New Democracy 129 (108 on May 6, 80 in 2009 not including Ind Greeks)
Syriza 71 (52, 13)
Pasok 33 (41, 150 not including Dem Left)
Independent Greeks 20 (33, 11 as part of New Democracy)
Golden Dawn 18 (21, 0)
Democratic Left 17 (19, 10 as part of PASOK)
Communist Party 12 (26, 21)

A coalition deal is near, according to ND leader Samaras. He is close to a deal with PASOK and Democratic Left could also possible join the government of national unity. Both SYRIZA and Independent Greeks refused to join in the government. KKE and Golden Dawn were not approached, and wouldn't want in anyway.
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Re: ND-PASOK Close to Reaching Gov't Deal, Dem Left Could Jo

Postby GreecePwns on Mon Jun 18, 2012 3:14 pm

Athens News wrote:To wrap up today's events, the parties that broadly back the country's international bailout will agree to form a coalition government on Tuesday, a senior official with New Democracy party told Reuters on Monday.
"We are going to clinch a deal tomorrow, we will form a government," the official, who declined to be named, said.
The official said that Pasok party would appoint members in the next cabinet and also expressed hope that the Democratic Left, would take part.
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Re: ND-PASOK Gov't Deal "Tomorrow", Dem Left Could Join

Postby GreecePwns on Tue Jun 19, 2012 3:25 pm

No coalition deal was officially reached today, despite Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis saying in the afternoon it could be done "in a few hours." Tuesday is the final day of New Democracy's mandate of government formation, but it seems definite that the coalition government will include New Democracy, PASOK and Democratic Left with all probably receiving. There is also talk of a possibility of including "non-governmental figures" (likely technocrats) in ministeral positions.

PASOK leader Venizelos brought up the idea of a "national renegotiation team," which includes members from the three parties, as well as SYRIZA, as part of a group of politicians who will lead the bailout renegotiations. This indicates that the new government will take a position of renegotiation instead of blind acceptance of the memorandum of understanding with the EU, IMF and ECB. The inclusion of Democratic Left in government, whose official position is a "slow and controlled exit from bailout terms" and a reveral of some measures such as minimum wage drops and other cuts, further indicates this to be the case.

The actual composition of the cabinet and intra-party disagreements is what held up the agreement. PASOK leader Venizelos said that he preferred not to have high-ranking members of his party in the cabinet, saying that their poor performance in these elections meant it was time to bring in new faces. Democratic Left members are in disagreement as to how involved the party should be in the coalition, with some saying they should not be taking any cabinet positions at all. This is the likely scenario.

SYRIZA on the other hand, will not try its hand at joining government at all and accepts the role of leading opposition. If such a "renegotiation team" were to take place, I doubt they would take part in it.

All of this should be decided tomorrow.
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Re: ND-PASOK Gov't Deal "Tomorrow", Dem Left Could Join

Postby patches70 on Tue Jun 19, 2012 8:08 pm

GreecePwns wrote:
PASOK leader Venizelos brought up the idea of a "national renegotiation team," which includes members from the three parties, as well as SYRIZA, as part of a group of politicians who will lead the bailout renegotiations. This indicates that the new government will take a position of renegotiation instead of blind acceptance of the memorandum of understanding with the EU, IMF and ECB. The inclusion of Democratic Left in government, whose official position is a "slow and controlled exit from bailout terms" and a reveral of some measures such as minimum wage drops and other cuts, further indicates this to be the case.



Imagine that. It seems beggars can be choosers. Gonna promise the Greek people that the new government will "renegotiate" the terms of the bailouts. That's a nice line, and when they fail the new government will collapse just like the last one.

Merkel's thoughts on renegotiation of the bailout terms-
Merkel wrote:We should very tightly keep to the rules and it’s obvious that the reforms that were agreed in the past were the right thing and have to be implemented


Heh, heh.

Well, if the Greeks are dumb enough to fall for ND's BS, then they get what they deserve I suppose.
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Re: ND-PASOK-Democratic Left Government Likely Forming Tomor

Postby GreecePwns on Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:24 pm

You speak as if Merkel has absolute power over all things Europe. I forgive you, because it has seemed that way for several months now with her daily speeches on how Greece should "keep the path" and "stick to the plan" and other such things. But she doesn't, nor is the rest of Europe (or Germany, if you look at opinion polls) appear willing to listen to her. She will have her final day just like Sarkozy had his recently.

The recent loan to Spanish banks, which had much, much lighter conditions than the Greek loans, is evidence that Europe is willing to bend. IIRC, There are other quotes out there from some IMF official saying they are ready to renegotiate and incentivize growth after government is formed (will find if asked). Tsipras saw all of this before anyone else did, and in my opinion deserved to be Prime Minister on this reason alone.
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Re: ND-PASOK-Democratic Left Government Likely Forming Tomor

Postby patches70 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 12:18 am

Forget Merkel, it's the German people don't seem to keen on bailing anyone out (I don't blame them). Since they have the most money, it's Germany that it all eventually falls to to bank the never ending bailouts. Greece, how many times now? Are they on their third bailout now? Now Spain, Italy is asking for money*, Ireland will follow.

It just doesn't end, until it ends. The Central Banks will do what they always do when faced with this sort of thing, print money. It has never ended well every time it has been tried before. Visions of the old Germany during the hyperinflation days aren't even the worst case of hyperinflation recorded in history. Zimbabwe even doesn't have the absolute worst record of hyperinflation.** And it always falls upon the citizens to pay the bill until they finally say "enough is enough" and the knives come out.

No, even if Greece does form a government, even if Greece does somehow manage to renegotiate the terms of the loans from the ECB and the IMF, it won't matter. The problems aren't being addressed. This supposed coalition government is the same people from when it collapsed before! LMAO. You really think the hope and changy message is real?

It's a lie. More attempts to kick the can and eventually everyone will get tired of playing the game. It'll all be a big surprise to those who are buying into the government lines of propaganda of "It'll all be fine now".

Hey, I don't care really. If Germany doesn't mind bankrolling all the weak links in the monetary union then more power to them. Chaining yourself to a sinking ship is a sure way to sink yourself though. The IMF is pumping money in and the IMF gets it's money from the US. When Greece finally accepts the inevitable, the systemic risks on the US will come into play and it won't go over well with the US population when they realize that we are bailing out the PIGS as well.

Romney even said just the other day, if elected not one cent will go to bailouts of Europe. I laughed, he knows the US funds the IMF and the IMF funds the bailouts. No, the circle jerk that is the Eu debt crisis is a massive ponzi scheme. The sooner Greece bites the bullet the better it will be for them in the long run. It'll be a bitter medicine at first, but they'll actually start to have real recovery.

Money, it's a bitter wedge between supposed "friends". All this is doing is fueling certain resentments and before too long the Europeans will be back doing what they've been doing to each other for thousands of years. Getting seriously nationalistic and killing each other.


*On 6/18/12 Italy violated the IMF's definition of "solvency" by having the average cost of their debts surpass 680 basis points. Italy is going to push in a meeting this very week of euro zone finance ministers for a "semi-automatic mechanism involving the European Central Bank or the permanent bailout fund ESM to reduce spreads of euro zone bonds over Germany, Italy's European Affairs Minister Enzo Moavero said on Monday."

**Inflation hit it's monthly peak in Germany between 1920-23 at 29,525% inflation, Zimbabwe hit it's highest monthly inflation between 2007-09 at 2,600% inflation***. The highest ever recorded inflation was in Hungary, 1945-46 at 1.295x10^16 inflation (HOLY SHIT!!! See- "Hungarian pengo") Serbia 1992-94 hit a monthly high at a respectable 309,000,000% inflation.

***Zimbabwe actually stopped keeping track of inflation in July of 2008. The IMF estimates they hit around 489 million % inflation. Still no where close to Hungary's record inflation.
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Re: ND-PASOK-Democratic Left Government Likely Forming Tomor

Postby Phatscotty on Wed Jun 20, 2012 12:30 am

GreecePwns wrote:You speak as if Merkel has absolute power over all things Europe. I forgive you, because it has seemed that way for several months now with her daily speeches on how Greece should "keep the path" and "stick to the plan" and other such things. But she doesn't, nor is the rest of Europe (or Germany, if you look at opinion polls) appear willing to listen to her. She will have her final day just like Sarkozy had his recently.

The recent loan to Spanish banks, which had much, much lighter conditions than the Greek loans, is evidence that Europe is willing to bend. IIRC, There are other quotes out there from some IMF official saying they are ready to renegotiate and incentivize growth after government is formed (will find if asked). Tsipras saw all of this before anyone else did, and in my opinion deserved to be Prime Minister on this reason alone.


Don't forget the golden rule. He who has the gold makes the rules. You might remember last year I predicted that Greece would have no gold left in the end, and that is what has come to pass.

I have been confused about ND too. I keep hearing they are "pro-bailout", but isn't that the same thing as saying they are pro-sticking to the bailout deal they made, inasmuch as that means they are pro-sticking to the planned austerity cuts?
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Re: ND-PASOK-Democratic Left Government Likely Forming Tomor

Postby patches70 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 12:38 am

Phatscotty wrote:I have been confused about ND too. I keep hearing they are "pro-bailout", but isn't that the same thing as saying they are pro-sticking to the bailout deal they made, inasmuch as that means they are pro-sticking to the planned austerity cuts?


ND is considered the "pro-bailout" party. I don't know if it's really true or not. I wouldn't trust them or any of the Greek politicians and especially the unelected technocrats that were placed into power in Greece.
Last edited by patches70 on Wed Jun 20, 2012 12:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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