Top 10 Reasons Mitt Won't Win and Obama Will Lose
Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 4:25 pmOBAMA
The working assumption, in the modern media, is that Obama simply cannot lose his reelection bid. Obviously, they want “The One” to be around for two. While their ever-present and sometimes intense rooting for him will certainly help Obama, there are a host of reasons why Obama will lose. Here’s a list:
1. Obama’s Shrinking Coalition. Obama was only elected with 52.9% of the vote. That is a slim majority. Since taking office he has shrunk that coalition by fighting with Americans. Here are some of the ways he did that:
a. He alienated most of what little Republican support he had with the Stimulus Bill;
b. He alienated support in energy related states by shutting down the Gulf after the BP spill, rejecting the Keystone pipeline, and imposing part of Cap & Trade through the EPA after it failed in Congress, including his draconian new rules for the coal industry;
c. He alienated law and order folks by wanting to try foreign combatants in American Courts;
d. He alienated many religious minded voters, including Catholic Bishops (no easy task) with his mandated contraception insurance coverage rules; and
e. He alienated voters who care about the Constitution, or at least our governmental balance with ObamaCare, his imposition of Czars and other rather undemocratic ways of he is pushing his policies on the American voter.
Also, Obama’s current strategy of pitting Americans against one another is a complete reversal of his 2008 strategy of wanting to unite people and is an admission that his prior coalitions have fallen apart.
2. The Enthusiasm Gap. Rabid support on the Left has dropped for Obama. To them, Obama is not as “pure” as they would like. That drop off is not an unusual effect for a sitting President. Beyond that, in 2008, enthusiasm was greatly in favor of the Democrats, yet Obama only got to 52.9% of the vote. In the 2010 midterm elections, the enthusiasm advantage was held by Republicans to great effect. The same dynamic will hold true this year even if not to the same degree.
3. ObamaCare’s Impending Supreme Defeat. ObamaCare has never been popular with voters. Since it was imposed on voters, a majority of Americans have been against it and by a 3 to 1 margin they have been against the individual mandate. If and when the Supreme Court overturns it, voters will be happy it is gone and Obama will be tagged with a major and embarrassing election year defeat.
4. Obama has raised Taxes and is Campaigning to Do it Again. In over 20 ways, including Obamacare, Obama has raised taxes against far more than those making over $250,000. He will let the Bush tax cuts expire and he is actively campaigning for tax increases. The last 8 Presidential winners have campaigned for tax cuts – as Obama did 4 years ago. No winners in the last 8 have campaigned for tax increases.
5. The Deficit is Too High for Reelection. The deficit is over a trillion dollars per year and is expected to be so for some time. National debt has risen to the top of polling concerns of Americans. Bush 41, despite an improving economy that was growing over 4% per year on Election Day, lost his reelection because Ross Perot made the deficit such a huge issue. Although the deficit alone does not hold center stage in this election, it certainly is dragging down Obama’s approval numbers.
6. Unemployment too High for a Reelection. We haven’t reelected a President, since the Great Depression, with unemployment above 7.2%. It is above 8% now and recent figures give every indication it may go higher. Further, the number of Americans that have dropped out of the workforce/looking for a job is at an all-time high. Reagan was reelected despite what was then a high rate because unemployment had dropped from 10.8% 23 months earlier to 7.2% by Election Day. Obama can show no such progression. Indeed, some economists expect it to rise in the short run.
7. Obama’s Leadership Deficit: He Has No Plans for our Major Problems & Blames Others. Devoid of a good economic record and despite enacting or imposing all of his policies, Obama continues to blame others for America’s problems. That is decidedly un-presidential after 4 years. Worse, he has no clear plans to deal with the future. No plan to deal with unemployment, no clear plans to deal with the deficit (other than raising tax rates – bad idea), no clear plans to deal with high gas prices, no clear plans to deal with rising health care premiums, etc. Leadership is about vision, plans, the ability to execute on those two and the ability to get voters to support them and help you. Without clear plans, voters won’t back Obama after 4 years of economic trouble. Fool me once . . .
8. Consumer Confidence is too low for a Reelection. We haven’t reelected a president or his party in the television age with Consumer Confidence Index, as measured by The Conference Board, below 100. Right now it is at 70. Although it was improving earlier this year from around 60 a year ago, higher gas prices have begun to choke off the economy and the unemployment picture is and will be impacted by our slowing economy. Gas prices will rise again this summer further impacting Consumer Confidence. As a result, it will be nearly impossible for Consumer Confidence to get anywhere near 100. It may not get to 80. So for Obama to win, the last two reason (unemployment and consumer confidence) would have to be ignored in historic fashion.
9. Republicans will Rise from Here. The end of a tough primary fight is usually the low point for the out party. Republican on Republican or Democrat on Democrat can be quite negative because the policy differences between the two are usually small and therefore to make a difference, candidates get personal. Once it becomes Republican on Democrat, policy differences can take center stage. In this case, it will move from Republican infighting to Obama’s record. That’s a stage on which Republicans can win.
10. A Simple, Practical Presidential Election. It is true; this is the most important election in a generation. From ObamaCare, to the economy, the next Supreme Court appointment, to Iran, there is a lot on the line. Even so, it will not be a complicated election.
In the final analysis, people will do two things this fall: (1) ask if they are better off than 4 years ago and (2) cast a vote for their future. Statistically, voters are not better off – whether that is based on employment figures or loss in wealth including dramatic drops in home owner equity. Psychologically, they are not better off either. Over 70% of Americans say we are headed in the wrong direction (reason #11).
ROMNEY
The working assumption, in the modern media, is that Obama simply cannot lose his reelection bid. Obviously, they want “The One” to be around for two. While their ever-present and sometimes intense rooting for him will certainly help Obama, there are a host of reasons why Obama will lose. Here’s a list:
1. Obama’s Shrinking Coalition. Obama was only elected with 52.9% of the vote. That is a slim majority. Since taking office he has shrunk that coalition by fighting with Americans. Here are some of the ways he did that:
a. He alienated most of what little Republican support he had with the Stimulus Bill;
b. He alienated support in energy related states by shutting down the Gulf after the BP spill, rejecting the Keystone pipeline, and imposing part of Cap & Trade through the EPA after it failed in Congress, including his draconian new rules for the coal industry;
c. He alienated law and order folks by wanting to try foreign combatants in American Courts;
d. He alienated many religious minded voters, including Catholic Bishops (no easy task) with his mandated contraception insurance coverage rules; and
e. He alienated voters who care about the Constitution, or at least our governmental balance with ObamaCare, his imposition of Czars and other rather undemocratic ways of he is pushing his policies on the American voter.
Also, Obama’s current strategy of pitting Americans against one another is a complete reversal of his 2008 strategy of wanting to unite people and is an admission that his prior coalitions have fallen apart.
2. The Enthusiasm Gap. Rabid support on the Left has dropped for Obama. To them, Obama is not as “pure” as they would like. That drop off is not an unusual effect for a sitting President. Beyond that, in 2008, enthusiasm was greatly in favor of the Democrats, yet Obama only got to 52.9% of the vote. In the 2010 midterm elections, the enthusiasm advantage was held by Republicans to great effect. The same dynamic will hold true this year even if not to the same degree.
3. ObamaCare’s Impending Supreme Defeat. ObamaCare has never been popular with voters. Since it was imposed on voters, a majority of Americans have been against it and by a 3 to 1 margin they have been against the individual mandate. If and when the Supreme Court overturns it, voters will be happy it is gone and Obama will be tagged with a major and embarrassing election year defeat.
4. Obama has raised Taxes and is Campaigning to Do it Again. In over 20 ways, including Obamacare, Obama has raised taxes against far more than those making over $250,000. He will let the Bush tax cuts expire and he is actively campaigning for tax increases. The last 8 Presidential winners have campaigned for tax cuts – as Obama did 4 years ago. No winners in the last 8 have campaigned for tax increases.
5. The Deficit is Too High for Reelection. The deficit is over a trillion dollars per year and is expected to be so for some time. National debt has risen to the top of polling concerns of Americans. Bush 41, despite an improving economy that was growing over 4% per year on Election Day, lost his reelection because Ross Perot made the deficit such a huge issue. Although the deficit alone does not hold center stage in this election, it certainly is dragging down Obama’s approval numbers.
6. Unemployment too High for a Reelection. We haven’t reelected a President, since the Great Depression, with unemployment above 7.2%. It is above 8% now and recent figures give every indication it may go higher. Further, the number of Americans that have dropped out of the workforce/looking for a job is at an all-time high. Reagan was reelected despite what was then a high rate because unemployment had dropped from 10.8% 23 months earlier to 7.2% by Election Day. Obama can show no such progression. Indeed, some economists expect it to rise in the short run.
7. Obama’s Leadership Deficit: He Has No Plans for our Major Problems & Blames Others. Devoid of a good economic record and despite enacting or imposing all of his policies, Obama continues to blame others for America’s problems. That is decidedly un-presidential after 4 years. Worse, he has no clear plans to deal with the future. No plan to deal with unemployment, no clear plans to deal with the deficit (other than raising tax rates – bad idea), no clear plans to deal with high gas prices, no clear plans to deal with rising health care premiums, etc. Leadership is about vision, plans, the ability to execute on those two and the ability to get voters to support them and help you. Without clear plans, voters won’t back Obama after 4 years of economic trouble. Fool me once . . .
8. Consumer Confidence is too low for a Reelection. We haven’t reelected a president or his party in the television age with Consumer Confidence Index, as measured by The Conference Board, below 100. Right now it is at 70. Although it was improving earlier this year from around 60 a year ago, higher gas prices have begun to choke off the economy and the unemployment picture is and will be impacted by our slowing economy. Gas prices will rise again this summer further impacting Consumer Confidence. As a result, it will be nearly impossible for Consumer Confidence to get anywhere near 100. It may not get to 80. So for Obama to win, the last two reason (unemployment and consumer confidence) would have to be ignored in historic fashion.
9. Republicans will Rise from Here. The end of a tough primary fight is usually the low point for the out party. Republican on Republican or Democrat on Democrat can be quite negative because the policy differences between the two are usually small and therefore to make a difference, candidates get personal. Once it becomes Republican on Democrat, policy differences can take center stage. In this case, it will move from Republican infighting to Obama’s record. That’s a stage on which Republicans can win.
10. A Simple, Practical Presidential Election. It is true; this is the most important election in a generation. From ObamaCare, to the economy, the next Supreme Court appointment, to Iran, there is a lot on the line. Even so, it will not be a complicated election.
In the final analysis, people will do two things this fall: (1) ask if they are better off than 4 years ago and (2) cast a vote for their future. Statistically, voters are not better off – whether that is based on employment figures or loss in wealth including dramatic drops in home owner equity. Psychologically, they are not better off either. Over 70% of Americans say we are headed in the wrong direction (reason #11).
ROMNEY
#10: Romney's main success stories are Staples and Dominos. These companies pay very poorly and are not a model for the economy as a whole -- at least, not an economy most of us would want to live in. Would you want to try to raise a family delivering pizzas for Dominos? To Romney, the plight of low wage workers is a theoretical one. His response to earning less that a hundred grand a year would probably be to take out a huge loan —but unlike Paul Cellucci, he could pay it off by cashing in a CD!
#9: One of the reasons Romney lost his bid for the Senate was the embarrassing revelations about how Bain treated employees at Ampad (also known as American Pad & Paper Co.), and in the wake of Enron, Worldcom, and Global Crossing, this may be just as embarrassing: Romney's company, Bain Capital, is being sued over possible defrauding of investors. Despite Ampad's bankruptcy, Bain walked out with a $50 million profit. Romney did not own stock in Ampad personally, but as vice president of Bain, he was surely aware of the overly rosy financial projections used to sell the stock to small investors. The 1996 stock offering sparked charges of insider trading and accounting fraud. Sound familiar?
#8: Speaking od fraud, remember all the scandals over the Salt Lake Olympics? They didn't end when Romney took over! Not only are the central figures in the Salt Lake Olympics bidding scandal likely to get off scot-free, the organizers paid them handsomely to go away. Tom Welch got a $1 million severance fee from SLOC and Dave Johnson reported $200,000. And unless a federal appeals court allows prosecutors to bring bribery, fraud, and racketeering charges against them, Welch and Johnson won't even stand trial. This "severance pay," several times what a typical Massachusetts worker earns in a year, came out of the small "profit" Romney and the SLOC eked out of the Olympics thanks to all the private donations and government handouts ("corporate welfare").
#7: Romney was only able to "save" the Olympics because of huge giveaways. The Utah congressional delegation strong-armed the Parks service to give pristine parkland to a multimillionaire to develop the skiing venue for free, despite the fact that he will make millions off it in the future. Most of the workers at the event forked for free, so the Salt Lake Olympic Committee (SLOC) didn't even have to pay the minimum wage most employees of Romney companies make. Maybe Romney thinks if he adks nicely, state troopers, garbage collectors, and teachers will work for free to make him look good!
#6: Romney said he "didn't notice" that Utah had him listed as a resident and gave him a $38,000 break on his property taxes. Anyone think he would have noticed a $38,000 increase? Did he illegally try to claim both states as his residence in order to maintain eligibility to run for office both places? We'll never know, because he refuses to release his income tax statements.
#5: Romney has no governmental experience at all. Zero. He had a message on his web site saying, "Romney to Legislature: Get Back in Session Now!" Like his confusion in the debates over the duties of a treasurer, he doesn't seem to understand the duties of governor or the legislature, He seems to think the governor is a CEO that can order the legislature around and fire them. Earth to Romney: the legislature is an elected body that doesn't answer to you. As for lowering taxes without cutting services, Romney thinks all you have to do to pay for something is go to the federal government and ask for a handout. After all, it worked for the Olympics!
#4: Romney's lack of experience doesn't make him an outsider. though. He is surrounded by advisors and other insiders from the Weld and Bush camps. Remember "the mess on Beacon Hill" and "we need change on Beacon Hill"? Well, we've had 12 years of Republican governors. If it's time for a change, vote for someone else!
#3: Romney thinks he is too important to pay dues. His only campaigns have been for U.S. Senate and Governor of Massachusetts. Considering his ties to the Bush white house, it's very possible that he only views the governor's office in Massachusetts as a stepping stone to the 2008 presidential race.
#2: Romney lied. He said he would not run against Swift, then he did, forcing her out of the race. Then he said he would not choose a running mate, but would let the Republican party choose one. Then he chose Kerry Healey and spend millions of dollars selling her to the public, capsizing Jim Rappaport's campaign with massive spending. And we're supposed to believe him when he says he's "not in this race for the rich"?
And the #1 reason not to vote for Mitt Romney is:
Romney is making a big deal of "not being in this race for the rich," but where have you seen Romney bumper stickers and yard signs? Mostly on luxury cars and SUVs and in the yards of mansions, high-priced condos, and big businesses. And who does he think he's fooling with his "made for the press" tries at pumping gas or selling hot dogs? How many of you have such perfectly coiffed hair and impeccably tailored blue jeans without a stain, tear, or patch? Romney is just plain out of touch!
