BigBallinStalin wrote:Honestly, I don't buy the pipeline hypothesis. I don't know enough about it to be as confident as patches' is.
That's cool, maybe you have an alternative hypothesis for why the US is so gun-ho to get rid of Assad. Maybe you actually believe the line about humanitarian reasons and spreading democracy? Yeah, I didn't think so.
Anyway, the Qatar-Turkey pipeline is common knowledge.
Qatar as you may know has the largest natgas reserves in the world. US corporations have invested billions of dollars in developing Qatar's natgas production and infrastructure capabilities over the last decade. Previously, Qatar knew they had a butt load of natgas but didn't have the technical expertise or infrastructure to exploit that resource efficiently.
Thanks to those investments Qatar now has that capability and most of the required infrastructure. All that remains is to build the efficient delivery system to get that natgas to desirable markets. I.E. Europe. This makes money for Qatar, gets the ROI for the investing US companies and eases Europe's dependence on Russian natgas. As you can see that's win/win for everybody involved (except the Russians) wouldn't you say?
So that brings us to the Qatar-Turkey pipeline. The line is to run from Qatar, through Saudi Arabia, then Syria and into Turkey to hook up with the already existing Nabucco pipeline. Turkey has already built their end of the line, ready to receive Qatar natgas right now. Syria is the only thorn left.
A quick link for you to read, BBS. It'll get you up to speed for the next part.http://www.ansamed.info/ansamed/en/news ... 60833.html
And if you don't like that one, then you'll sure as hell like this one from the Armed Forces Journal-https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... xwvbknOzuw
There is also the wiki entry, but that doesn't give much information-https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... akzUOB-B6Q
but gives enough for us to start going from there. Especially when we combine that tidbit with other views that already published out there.
Now at first Qatar had a deal with Assad, but as the wiki entry states, Assad after consulting with their Russian friends opted out of that deal to "protect the interests of it's Russian ally".
Now, lets get to the nitty gritty, the sectarian aspect. Assad is Alawite which is a branch of Shia and Assad decided instead of helping Qatar and Saudi Arabia (Sunni), they decided to run an eastern pipeline deal with Iran (Shia) and Iraq (effectively Shia now).
Now, Qatar ,who has close ties with the Muslim Brotherhood, want MB factions of the Syrian rebels to prevail. I suppose these would be the "moderate" rebels that Obama likes to refer to. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia supports the more extreme Wahabbi factions of the rebels. Wahabbism would be considered "extreme" by us in the west and they are considered extreme even by Sunni and Shia standards. Wahabbi is a sect of Sunni as well.
So you have Assad the Alawite (Shia) against Qatar (Sunni) and Saudi Arabia (Wahabbi Sunni).
Assad has as allies Iran, Russia and Iraq. Qatar and Saudi Arabia have as allies the US and the EU. You can see the EU's reasons for wanting the Qatar-Turkey pipeline to go through, I assume. But frankly I'd think the Europeans wouldn't care either way, the Eastern pipeline through Iran/Iraq/Syria or the Southern pipeline of Qatar/Saudi Arabia/Syria. Both give the same advantage that Europe really needs. An alternative to Russian natgas.
For now the Saudi and Qatar dogs are working together because they have a common goal, the ousting of Assad. Qatar thinks they have a better chance of working with their MB allies to make sure the pipeline not only gets built but also protected. Qatar doesn't really trust the more radical Wahabbi's that the Sauds are backing. It's not a very bad leap of logic for Qatar to think this way, IMO. But first and foremost Assad has to go.
Of course, as soon as Assad goes, the Qatar dogs in this fight will battle the Saud's dogs. But hey, whatever, right?
ISIS as you know are Sunni, they are the most radical and extreme of those who Qatar and Saudi Arabia have been supporting.
Anyway, read those first two links, it's not just me who is making all this up and is saying it's mostly about the pipeline, it's also the US military thinktanks and other geopolitical analysts. And they have access to a whole hell of a lot more information than I have and they come to the same conclusion, Assad has to go if we want the Qatari pipeline to go through.
And of course the US would favor the Qatari/Sunni pipeline over the Iran/Shia pipeline because not only have billions of dollars been invested in Qatar's energy sector by US corporations (who also have the ear of the USG as you well know) but the alternative is energy profits taken by our enemies. Iran. So the US is not only helping those US corporations, but also helping her own allies Qatar and Saudi Arabia while at the same time boxing her enemies in (Iran) and cutting the legs out from under Russia who has a figurative gun to Europe's head, so to speak.
The one thing that is really interesting is the Kurd part. You know if you look at a map one would wonder why Qatar would bother with Syria at all since Turkey shares a border with Iraq. Except that border area is Kurd territory. Oh man, if you wanna get into the surreal, then wait till I tell you about that one! But that's only if you want. For what it's worth, I can totally understand why Qatar and Turkey would want to bypass that seemingly easier route directly to Turkey through Iraq and opt instead for chaos and war in Syria.
But that's another subject I suppose. But related.