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ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:34 am

BBS wrote:Y'all sound like conspiracy theorists who believe that the absolute destruction of .04% of oil export revenue will change prices to some significant amount.


The fragility of the petroleum system means even minor disruptions create ripple effects on pricing. This isn't like pricing widgets. Dr. Birdwell explains that ...

Under Queuing Theory, we are currently experiencing an energy system that is operating well beyond normal capacity thresholds and that any disruption, be it violence in Nigeria or civil unrest in a small country like Libya, could have major implications for the world energy market. This pattern is represented by the volatility in prices for a barrel of oil immediately after these events.

http://www.questia.com/library/journal/ ... an-explain


The U.S. isn't trying to terminate 2MM/day - or any quantity - in output. The U.S. is trying to create a general sense of uncertainty in the stability of supplies; pricing then occurs in anticipation of a queuing delay. The same strategy - in reverse - was employed in the 1980s to implode the USSR. In that case, the U.S. stabilized supplies (the Oil Windfall is scrapped, etc.) and collapsed the price of oil - resulting in the so-called "oil glut" of the 1980s - which was the Soviet Union's principal source of hard currency.
Last edited by saxitoxin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:56 am

saxitoxin wrote:The U.S.' #1 interest is driving up the price of oil so that China can't buy it. If China can get cheap oil then it can build its way out of a manufacturing economy and into a creative economy; it can start buying its own junk instead of relying on the U.S. to buy it from them. And when it doesn't need to rely on the U.S. it can then call-in the debt which would wipe the U.S. out of existence. So the U.S. has to do things like arm Israel to the teeth, or periodically bomb the bejeezus out of country X, or avoid drilling into its own massive oil reserves in Alaska (ostensibly due to environmental reasons), or offering cheap financing on car loans. Whatever it takes to keep the price of oil above $90/barrel.


What's the correlation between China and world prices for oil? How much does a $1 change in the price of oil affect China's economy?


Then, when you've got that, you'd have to explain the correlation between world prices and only US conflicts in the ME region. (How much of an impact does everything else, other than US wars in the Middle East, have on oil prices?)
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:01 am

saxitoxin wrote:
BBS wrote:Y'all sound like conspiracy theorists who believe that the absolute destruction of .04% of oil export revenue will change prices to some significant amount.


The fragility of the petroleum system means even minor disruptions create ripple effects on pricing. This isn't like pricing widgets. Dr. Birdwell explains that ...

Under Queuing Theory, we are currently experiencing an energy system that is operating well beyond normal capacity thresholds and that any disruption, be it violence in Nigeria or civil unrest in a small country like Libya, could have major implications for the world energy market. This pattern is represented by the volatility in prices for a barrel of oil immediately after these events.

http://www.questia.com/library/journal/ ... an-explain


The U.S. isn't trying to terminate 2MM/day - or any quantity - in output. The U.S. is trying to create a general sense of uncertainty in the stability of supplies; pricing then occurs in anticipation of a queuing delay. The same strategy - in reverse - was employed in the 1980s to implode the USSR. In that case, the U.S. stabilized supplies and collapsed the price of oil - resulting in the so-called "oil glut" of the 1980s - which was the Soviet Union's principal source of hard currency.


How many oil exporting countries collapsed too during that time? Then what other factors affected the Soviet economy? Surely, you're controlling for your bias here, right?

Nevertheless, the ISIS-US claim was total bullshit. A .04% was going to impact oil prices? lol. Sure, war in Syria delays an additional oil supply, but to what degree? (then see other questions in other post about oil prices and GDP).
Last edited by BigBallinStalin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:05 am

saxitoxin wrote:
BBS wrote:Y'all sound like conspiracy theorists who believe that the absolute destruction of .04% of oil export revenue will change prices to some significant amount.


The fragility of the petroleum system means even minor disruptions create ripple effects on pricing. This isn't like pricing widgets. Dr. Birdwell explains that ...

Under Queuing Theory, we are currently experiencing an energy system that is operating well beyond normal capacity thresholds and that any disruption, be it violence in Nigeria or civil unrest in a small country like Libya, could have major implications for the world energy market. This pattern is represented by the volatility in prices for a barrel of oil immediately after these events.

http://www.questia.com/library/journal/ ... an-explain


None of that explains the marginal effect of oil prices on gdp. That article is about how a theory MIGHT explain your claims, which are ... what now? oil prices and gdp on China? Volatility of oil prices and gdp on China?

(Also, the paper is speculative. It's about future changes in the price of oil. You may as well have cited your crystal ball).



Again, y'all also realize that Saudi Arabia can shift prices to offset decreases in supply, right? OPEC can do this, and the rest of the 60% of oil producers.... so how do you control for their reaction to changes in oil prices?

(OPEC doesn't have a monopoly on the oil market; it produces 40% of total oil. So, how does the other 60% respond to changes in the price of oil? For your contention to hold--about instability in the ME, why don't other countries expand supply? )
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:22 am

BigBallinStalin wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:The U.S.' #1 interest is driving up the price of oil so that China can't buy it. If China can get cheap oil then it can build its way out of a manufacturing economy and into a creative economy; it can start buying its own junk instead of relying on the U.S. to buy it from them. And when it doesn't need to rely on the U.S. it can then call-in the debt which would wipe the U.S. out of existence. So the U.S. has to do things like arm Israel to the teeth, or periodically bomb the bejeezus out of country X, or avoid drilling into its own massive oil reserves in Alaska (ostensibly due to environmental reasons), or offering cheap financing on car loans. Whatever it takes to keep the price of oil above $90/barrel.


What's the correlation between China and world prices for oil? How much does a $1 change in the price of oil affect China's economy?


Then, when you've got that, you'd have to explain the correlation between world prices and only US conflicts in the ME region. (How much of an impact does everything else, other than US wars in the Middle East, have on oil prices?)


LOL - if you're expecting me to come back and say "$4.32!" as the dollar figure that we can assign to "the impact" oil price shocks have in China you're nuts. How much does a $1 change in the price of oil affect China's economy? is a patently ridiculous question. That's like Mets saying "the sun heats the Earth" and you responding "so then what will be the temperature in Phoenix at 1 p.m. tomorrow, smart guy?" You obviously have Asperger syndrome.

BBS wrote:(Also, the paper is speculative. It's about future changes in the price of oil. You may as well have cited your crystal ball).


Lolwut? Of course it's speculative. Everything that deals with anything 1 second or later from now is speculative. Were you thinking I was going to produce a notarized affidavit from Ernest Moniz saying "Saxi is correct" or what?
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:17 am

Obviously, you don't know what you're talking about. You have no idea how oil prices affect China's economic growth, you have no idea what effect US conflicts in the ME have on oil prices, you fail to consider why the US has spent decades stabilizing regimes which produce oil (which makes little sense if the conspiratorial goal is to destabilize oil prices), etc. All you can say is "it's teh bad! I can't provide better estimates than that because I think you need me to provide exact prices!" (I don't, but your reaction is a cute straw man).

When slightly challenged about your US-oil price hypothesis (lol, ISIS oil production), you present a speculative work, whose methodology you can't defend (cuz you probably don't understand it), and which doesn't provide sufficient empirical support (c'mon, it's a projection decades into the future, please. Let's hold technology constant and predict future volatility of oil prices, derp). Also, good job with the straw man in response ('oh, anything is speculative if it's a second into the future'. Duh, sax, now consider the difference between a second and decades).

You're a crackpot conspiracy theorist.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:19 am

Oh, and never mind your ignorance about how the oil market works. It's amusing how you constantly avoid that topic.

And your US-oil-price-CCCP-meltdown hypothesis was hysterically funny. Good job controlling your bias on that one!
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby patches70 on Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:14 am

Saxi, your thinking that Assad is safe now because the US has to move against ISIS is shortsighted. Assad is in even more danger now.

The US administration is so desperate to have the ability to claim a "coalition" and that the US isn't acting unilaterally, that we made a deal with the Saudi's back on Sept 11 when Kerry met with the King of Saudi Arabia.
The Saud's are still pissed from when Obama backed off his red line last year and failed to bomb Assad's regime to death. The deal struck is that in exchange for Saudi and other Gulf state's support against ISIS, is that Assad has to go.
The "coalition" is symbolic more than any real military value. Obama has the blessing of a major Sunni State to bomb Sunni militants.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/deal-wit ... TopStories

So while today and for now the US is only bombing ISIS, eventually that will change and Assad will be getting bombed as well. Secret deals, man, secret deals. Things are not as they appear but it's easy enough to see the truth.

That Qatar pipeline is going through Syria one way or another. It serves the US' interest because the Qatar natgas supply to Europe is a much better way to punish Russia than any of our current sanctions are accomplishing.

Syria and Assad is just a sideshow, the opening shots fired between two blocs. The First bloc being the US bloc. US, Saudia Arabia, Qatar, the EU vs the Russian bloc. Russia, Syria, Iran, China.

It's WWIII man, the World Energy War which is inevitable and the combatants are pretty obvious. Thus far it's been fought using proxies but at some point it'll get more violent and dangerous if someone doesn't return to sanity and return to sanity real soon.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:03 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:Obviously, you don't know what you're talking about. You have no idea how oil prices affect China's economic growth, you have no idea what effect US conflicts in the ME have on oil prices, you fail to consider why the US has spent decades stabilizing regimes which produce oil (which makes little sense if the conspiratorial goal is to destabilize oil prices), etc. All you can say is "it's teh bad! I can't provide better estimates than that because I think you need me to provide exact prices!" (I don't, but your reaction is a cute straw man).

When slightly challenged about your US-oil price hypothesis (lol, ISIS oil production), you present a speculative work, whose methodology you can't defend (cuz you probably don't understand it), and which doesn't provide sufficient empirical support (c'mon, it's a projection decades into the future, please. Let's hold technology constant and predict future volatility of oil prices, derp). Also, good job with the straw man in response ('oh, anything is speculative if it's a second into the future'. Duh, sax, now consider the difference between a second and decades).


I think you don't understand what's going on here, BBS/Juan_Bottom.

The above paper was never intended to defend "my" "US-oil price hypothesis." (I wouldn't defend anything with something from Pace University.) I referenced it because it offered a good, elementary explanation of how queuing worked, which you indicated you didn't understand: you googled "ISIS oil production," found it was 0.04% of world output and then said "therefore, this will increase prices 0.04%." If you don't understand why that's funny, and are going to throw a tantrum when someone gently tries to explain the humor in your High School econ understanding of markets, I don't know what to tell you. But let's set that aside for a moment so I can ask a question...

What's the section header on page 4 of the paper I referenced?
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby DirtyDishSoap on Thu Sep 25, 2014 12:41 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:But sur'sly, ISIS makes $2 mil per a day from oil revenue. Assuming the US has destroyed all ISIS oil production (or that people expect that to happen), then how much would that affect the price of oil?


I actually believe a large part of their income comes from drugs, such as opium/weed, whatever. A lot of 'farmers' grow that stuff there so I basically assumed. I can't say for certain on oil, but we do have some hand in that, how far that extends is beyond my knowledge.
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Symmetry wrote:Ok, so some stuff goes over your head?


No not here anyway. He never said they were forced.


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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 1:07 pm

saxitoxin wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:Obviously, you don't know what you're talking about. You have no idea how oil prices affect China's economic growth, you have no idea what effect US conflicts in the ME have on oil prices, you fail to consider why the US has spent decades stabilizing regimes which produce oil (which makes little sense if the conspiratorial goal is to destabilize oil prices), etc. All you can say is "it's teh bad! I can't provide better estimates than that because I think you need me to provide exact prices!" (I don't, but your reaction is a cute straw man).

When slightly challenged about your US-oil price hypothesis (lol, ISIS oil production), you present a speculative work, whose methodology you can't defend (cuz you probably don't understand it), and which doesn't provide sufficient empirical support (c'mon, it's a projection decades into the future, please. Let's hold technology constant and predict future volatility of oil prices, derp). Also, good job with the straw man in response ('oh, anything is speculative if it's a second into the future'. Duh, sax, now consider the difference between a second and decades).


I think you don't understand what's going on here, BBS/Juan_Bottom.

The above paper was never intended to defend "my" "US-oil price hypothesis." (I wouldn't defend anything with something from Pace University.) I referenced it because it offered a good, elementary explanation of how queuing worked, which you indicated you didn't understand: you googled "ISIS oil production," found it was 0.04% of world output and then said "therefore, this will increase prices 0.04%." If you don't understand why that's funny, and are going to throw a tantrum when someone gently tries to explain the humor in your High School econ understanding of markets, I don't know what to tell you. But let's set that aside for a moment so I can ask a question...

What's the section header on page 4 of the paper I referenced?


Aw, another straw man. Good job, sax. Just keep failing to offer empirical support while you continue to repeat your nonsense. (Sure, tell me about the section header on page 4. I'm sure it'll explain everything about your conspiracy theory. Then we can move on to the correlation between oil prices and Chinese economic growth, the marginal impact of a counter-productive US strategy to tamper with oil markets, the dynamics of the oil markets, and so on).

If anyone along the way offers challenging questions, consult the crystal ball, cover up with a few straw man fallacies, and continue posting something with a radical headline, a link which kinda supports what you're saying, omit any relevant factors, and then layer on the nonsensical musings with the typical saxitoxic flourish.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 1:10 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:Obviously, you don't know what you're talking about. You have no idea how oil prices affect China's economic growth, you have no idea what effect US conflicts in the ME have on oil prices, you fail to consider why the US has spent decades stabilizing regimes which produce oil (which makes little sense if the conspiratorial goal is to destabilize oil prices), etc. All you can say is "it's teh bad! I can't provide better estimates than that because I think you need me to provide exact prices!" (I don't, but your reaction is a cute straw man).

When slightly challenged about your US-oil price hypothesis (lol, ISIS oil production), you present a speculative work, whose methodology you can't defend (cuz you probably don't understand it), and which doesn't provide sufficient empirical support (c'mon, it's a projection decades into the future, please. Let's hold technology constant and predict future volatility of oil prices, derp). Also, good job with the straw man in response ('oh, anything is speculative if it's a second into the future'. Duh, sax, now consider the difference between a second and decades).


I think you don't understand what's going on here, BBS/Juan_Bottom.

The above paper was never intended to defend "my" "US-oil price hypothesis." (I wouldn't defend anything with something from Pace University.) I referenced it because it offered a good, elementary explanation of how queuing worked, which you indicated you didn't understand: you googled "ISIS oil production," found it was 0.04% of world output and then said "therefore, this will increase prices 0.04%." If you don't understand why that's funny, and are going to throw a tantrum when someone gently tries to explain the humor in your High School econ understanding of markets, I don't know what to tell you. But let's set that aside for a moment so I can ask a question...

What's the section header on page 4 of the paper I referenced?


Aw, another straw man. Good job, sax. Just keep failing to offer empirical support while you continue to repeat your nonsense. (Sure, tell me about the section header on page 4. I'm sure it'll explain everything about your conspiracy theory. Then we can move on to the correlation between oil prices and Chinese economic growth, the marginal impact of a counter-productive US strategy to tamper with oil markets, the dynamics of the oil markets, and so on).

If anyone along the way offers challenging questions, consult the crystal ball, cover up with a few straw man fallacies, and continue posting something with a radical headline, a link which kinda supports what you're saying, omit any relevant factors, and then layer on the nonsensical musings with the typical saxitoxic flourish.


No, "Aw, another straw man. Good job, sax.", wasn't it. Do you want to try again - what's the section header on page 4 of the paper I referenced?
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby muy_thaiguy on Thu Sep 25, 2014 1:29 pm

"Eh, whatever."
-Anonymous


What, you expected something deep or flashy?
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 2:01 pm

muy_thaiguy wrote:


The Hillary Clinton Amen chorus at VICE didn't need to interview Mad Mustafa. Saxi has been saying the exact same thing is gonna happen since 2011 if the U.S. keeps up its reckless adventurism. I did it again just last June, in fact.

Six months or so ago I told patches that the U.S., at the last minute, would pull back from its intransigence toward Bashar for this reason; despite its lip-service to neoliberalism, the U.S. will always play the predictable role of an offensive realist. Check. I also said I wasn't worried about Saif al-Islam; that he would eventually be out of jail and running the show from the Bab al-Aziziya. Give that one about six months.

Make no mistake, this isn't a war the U.S. is pursuing, this is a shooting retreat.

We're less than a year from status quo ante bellum. It will be like everything since 2010 never happened. And, once again, Syria will save western civilization. Just like it's done for the last 1,000 years.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 3:13 pm

saxitoxin wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:Obviously, you don't know what you're talking about. You have no idea how oil prices affect China's economic growth, you have no idea what effect US conflicts in the ME have on oil prices, you fail to consider why the US has spent decades stabilizing regimes which produce oil (which makes little sense if the conspiratorial goal is to destabilize oil prices), etc. All you can say is "it's teh bad! I can't provide better estimates than that because I think you need me to provide exact prices!" (I don't, but your reaction is a cute straw man).

When slightly challenged about your US-oil price hypothesis (lol, ISIS oil production), you present a speculative work, whose methodology you can't defend (cuz you probably don't understand it), and which doesn't provide sufficient empirical support (c'mon, it's a projection decades into the future, please. Let's hold technology constant and predict future volatility of oil prices, derp). Also, good job with the straw man in response ('oh, anything is speculative if it's a second into the future'. Duh, sax, now consider the difference between a second and decades).


I think you don't understand what's going on here, BBS/Juan_Bottom.

The above paper was never intended to defend "my" "US-oil price hypothesis." (I wouldn't defend anything with something from Pace University.) I referenced it because it offered a good, elementary explanation of how queuing worked, which you indicated you didn't understand: you googled "ISIS oil production," found it was 0.04% of world output and then said "therefore, this will increase prices 0.04%." If you don't understand why that's funny, and are going to throw a tantrum when someone gently tries to explain the humor in your High School econ understanding of markets, I don't know what to tell you. But let's set that aside for a moment so I can ask a question...

What's the section header on page 4 of the paper I referenced?


Aw, another straw man. Good job, sax. Just keep failing to offer empirical support while you continue to repeat your nonsense. (Sure, tell me about the section header on page 4. I'm sure it'll explain everything about your conspiracy theory. Then we can move on to the correlation between oil prices and Chinese economic growth, the marginal impact of a counter-productive US strategy to tamper with oil markets, the dynamics of the oil markets, and so on).

If anyone along the way offers challenging questions, consult the crystal ball, cover up with a few straw man fallacies, and continue posting something with a radical headline, a link which kinda supports what you're saying, omit any relevant factors, and then layer on the nonsensical musings with the typical saxitoxic flourish.


No, "Aw, another straw man. Good job, sax.", wasn't it. Do you want to try again - what's the section header on page 4 of the paper I referenced?


Right. So, just to explain to the gallery why I asked this several times, I wanted to confirm what I suspected - that BBS hadn't actually read the paper with which he feigned such intimate familiarity. (I cued in on that like a 10th grade English teacher cues in on a book report that starts "Huckleberry Finn is the story of of a Finnish boy who works on a berry farm.")

    The link I posted was only to an abstract on Questia; the quote was from page 9. So either he had a subscription to Competition Forum or he accessed it on LexisAcademic, and I gave him the benefit of the doubt for both but he dodged and danced when asked to name a section header ... a header that didn't exist.

Instead of simply saying he didn't understand market queuing, he put on this show of being an expert on the subject. Enjoy going back to read his detailed dissection of "Oil Price Volatility: How Queuing ...", how even confidently announces "whose methodology you can't defend (cuz you probably don't understand it), and which doesn't provide sufficient empirical support", keeping in mind he hasn't read the thing he just declared "doesn't provide sufficient empirical support" (a statement which wouldn't even apply here; something one would know if one had read the thing).

SAXI OUT

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    (I have three more rounds chambered but, to save him further embarrassment, I'm going to leave it there.)
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:20 pm

lol, so you're not going to provide a more detailed defense of your one article which you cited for your entire conspiracy theory? Cool.


Have fun rocking out to your conspiracy tunes, dawg.



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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 5:54 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:lol, so you're not going to provide a more detailed defense


You nailed it. You just confidently declared a peer-reviewed paper from the chair of the graduate management program at Pace was "a projection decades into the future" (it wasn't a projection at all, it was an historic analysis) and concluded it didn't "provide sufficient empirical support" (a statement that doesn't make sense in the context of this paper) despite not having read it but - and this is the kicker - pretending you had!

BBS wrote:a speculative work, whose methodology you can't defend (cuz you probably don't understand it), and which doesn't provide sufficient empirical support (c'mon, it's a projection decades into the future


You just outed yourself as a Frank Abagnale, BBS. Big time. Someone who doesn't really know what they're talking about but tries to impress people with a fireworks show. I don't argue with fireworks shows, BBS. They keep making loud noises and bright lights regardless of what you say to them.

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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:09 pm

You've done a great job making a fool of yourself, sax. Your behavior toward Mets about Israel and Hamas was shameful, and ITT you're repeating the same behavior, so I'll unfortunately lump you into the GabonX-JB-shickbricks category. Y'all have different conclusions but similarly unscientific means for reaching them, but I'll admit that your rhetoric, videos, and gifs are superior. It's a small victory, but a victory nonetheless, right?
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby notyou2 on Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:20 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:Image


Was your dog OK BBS?
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:24 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:You've done a great job making a fool of yourself, sax. Your behavior toward Mets about Israel and Hamas was shameful, and ITT you're repeating the same behavior


LOL - this is even richer! Now you're shoulder-to-shoulder at Mets' side, when - at the time - you were cheerleading me from the corner!

(And for the record, I called Mets a Zionist. I'm calling you a fake and a fraud, which is something different entirely. BBS - you just spent X minutes writing a 6 paragraph analysis of a paper you didn't read but ... [pause] ... pretended you had!)

Good luck with wherever you decide to go from here.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 6:39 pm

notyou2 wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:Image


Was your dog OK BBS?


I put my beautiful hound in a doggie wheelchair for court day. The judge broke down in tears and declared saxitoxin to be "mentally incompetent," at which point saxitoxin escaped from the courtroom. This is real story behind why saxitoxin fled from Germany. He's no doctor with a history of malpractice; he's a crazed mangy mutt--a neurological experiment gone wrong.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby DoomYoshi on Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:28 pm

Mets is from New York though. He likes the Mets. He's probably a Jew, so it makes sense that he would be a zionist.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby patches70 on Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:32 pm

Hey, I'll tell you all right up front that I didn't read any link Saxi provided. But the notions of why oil prices increase are all pretty much bullshit. Either from saxi's POV or BBS' economists POV.

The four most common excuses for rising oil prices and why each is total bullshit follows-

1. Rising Middle East Tension. This is probably the #1 reason cited why oil prices are rising. The problem with this reason is it's a constant, not a variable. Since when has the middle east not had tension? Here are some headlines we see all the time-
"Impact from Libya conflict to show up at the gas pumps" (2011, Seattle Times)
"Oil prices surge to new record high responding to escalating violence in the middle east" (2006, US News and World Report)
"Crude oil prices at a six month high on mideast worries" (2002, New York Times)

I can list out these headlines all day, but it just shows that "middle east tension" is an ongoing saga. So it's not a variable that all of a sudden gets so bad as to affect the price of oil. It's a bullshit reason that easily impressionable people believe.

2. Increased Demand. Characterized as increased demand from China. Now it's true to some degree that China has increased demand, more so in the last few years, but that also is ongoing. One thing forgotten is that while China's demand increases, demand in the US and Europe has decreased. The net increase in demand is not enough to cause the tripling of oil prices in ten years. Not even close.

3. Speculation. Oil is a multi trillion $ commodity, you can't manipulate that market for the long term.
We remember the stories in the great crash, when gas prices went nuts. Senators were on the idiot box spouting that it was because of the evil speculators. Now ignoring that speculation serves a vital market process which I'm not going to go into right now (I'd assume that BBS understands what positive role that speculation plays in markets) but speculators can't speculate on everything. The idea that speculation plays a long term role in rising prices of commodities is baloney. Literally, from the BLS price of bologna-
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So are there evil baloney speculators out there driving up the price of bologna? How about eggs? Are there evil egg speculators driving up the price of eggs?
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I don't think so, maybe there is another reason for the rising prices? We'll get to that, still one more reason to go over.

4 Greedy oil companies. Now this reason is the most emotional and is probably what a lot of people believe. Now this reason may make sense if you are a first year student at Sarah Lawerence-
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but let's actually look at the numbers. In the last three quarters of 2011 Exxon had revenues of $357 billion. That sounds like a lot, but Exxon's after tax profit was $31 billion. That's an 8.7% after tax profit margin. Now excluding the average Mom and Pop shop who has 40-50% markups on the stuff they sell, let's look at everyone's favorite tech company, Apple during the exact same time period.
In the last three quarters of 2011 Apple had revenues of $103 billion and $27 billion in after tax profit. That's a 26% after tax profit margin.
So Apple who makes disposable gadgets in a sweatshop overseas has a 200% larger profit margin than Exxon who has the audacity to provide the stuff that makes all our lives possible, from the gas we put in our cars to the plastics that we take for granted.

Not to mention the US government makes more money per gallon of gas in the US than the oil companies do. But that's another discussion. But if the oil companies are greedy and evil for the money they make, then what does that make the US government who makes even more money from the oil than the oil companies do?


So those are the four main reasons you hear of why oil prices are increasing but none of then explain the long term trend of increasing oil prices. There is only one explanation for the reason of those long term increases in gas and oil prices.

Inflation, and it's the least exciting explanation of them all, but it's the truth. It doesn't sell newspapers though, nothing sells newspapers better than war, death, greed and blaming specific groups of people for evils. It's not that oil is more valuable, it's that the dollars used to buy the oil become less valuable. So it takes more of them to buy the oil.

Here is the S&P 500-
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and the Fed and Obama will trip all over themselves to take credit for the rise and pat themselves on the back for the rising stock market but when it comes to the price of oil-

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They invent all kinds of excuses as to why it's not their fault that oil is going up at the same time as the stock market.

Now I'm just explaining reality. One can call me a shill for the oil companies or whatever, but the reality is that inflation hurts the poor and the middle class the most. The rich guy in the maserati doesn't give a crap if gas prices are $5 a gallon. But you should. And you should understand why.
The Fed and the government pursue policies that help the richest, drive up inflation which increases asset prices which makes the owners of those assets richer while making the poor working schmuck poorer because the price of all the things he needs and buys everyday keeps rising faster than he's making money.

The US government doesn't have to cause wars to make the oil prices rise. They do that by just keeping on printing dollars.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:41 pm

DoomYoshi wrote:Mets is from New York though. He likes the Mets. He's probably a Jew, so it makes sense that he would be a zionist.


If Mets lets BBS back into his panties after BBS was standing on the sidelines, giggling and snorting juice box cider out his nose while I was taking Mets' lunch money, then he really is living the doormat Mets lifestyle.

Someone go get Mets and bring him here because I wanna see how this is gonna play out.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 7:51 pm

LOL, and these two garbage heap nations are 1/2 of the countries supposedly providing air supremacy support in Syria to keep the unbeaten Syrian Arab Air Force grounded while the U.S. attacks ISIS.

The tiny and very rich Persian Gulf emirate of Qatar has become a hostile target for two nations with significant influence in the U.S.: Israel and the United Arab Emirates. Israel is furious over Qatar’s support for Palestinians generally and (allegedly) Hamas specifically, while the UAE is upset that Qatar supports the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt (UAE supports the leaders of the military coup) and that Qatar funds Islamist rebels in Libya (UAE supports forces aligned with [ed.: Saif al-Islam] Ghadaffi).

This animosity has resulted in a new campaign in the west to demonize the Qataris as the key supporter of terrorism. The Israelis have chosen the direct approach of publicly accusing their new enemy in Doha of being terrorist supporters, while the UAE has opted for a more covert strategy: paying millions of dollars to a U.S. lobbying firm – composed of former high-ranking Treasury officials from both parties – to plant anti-Qatar stories with American journalists.

https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2014 ... oll-group/
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