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ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 8:21 pm

patches70 wrote:There is only one explanation for the reason of those long term increases in gas and oil prices.

Inflation, and it's the least exciting explanation of them all, but it's the truth. It doesn't sell newspapers though, nothing sells newspapers better than war, death, greed and blaming specific groups of people for evils. It's not that oil is more valuable, it's that the dollars used to buy the oil become less valuable. So it takes more of them to buy the oil.

Here is the S&P 500-
Image

and the Fed and Obama will trip all over themselves to take credit for the rise and pat themselves on the back for the rising stock market but when it comes to the price of oil-

Image

They invent all kinds of excuses as to why it's not their fault that oil is going up at the same time as the stock market.

Now I'm just explaining reality. One can call me a shill for the oil companies or whatever, but the reality is that inflation hurts the poor and the middle class the most. The rich guy in the maserati doesn't give a crap if gas prices are $5 a gallon. But you should. And you should understand why.
The Fed and the government pursue policies that help the richest, drive up inflation which increases asset prices which makes the owners of those assets richer while making the poor working schmuck poorer because the price of all the things he needs and buys everyday keeps rising faster than he's making money.

The US government doesn't have to cause wars to make the oil prices rise. They do that by just keeping on printing dollars.


So, what do you think about this:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-o ... tory-chart

Inflation doesn't explain it all.


Also, how about this? "[This chart] Compares the movement of the real dollar index with gold and oil prices since 1974. The oil and gold series are adjusted for CPI inflation and the real dollar index is adjusted for the relevant trading partners own currency inflation rates":

http://www.macrotrends.net/1334/dollar- ... ical-chart




And then there's this.

Image
http://inflationdata.com/inflation/imag ... _small.jpg

It's adjusted for inflation, yet the price of oil keeps increasing. Why? In the long-run, nominals don't affect reals (i.e. cash money in the LR doesn't affect reals like gold and oil). In the LR, only reals affect reals--i.e. the supply and demand of oil affect its price. Monetary phenomena, like inflation, do affect reals in the short-run--as do risk and uncertainty (which are related to inflation to some degree).

Either you're right and nearly all economists are wrong, or you're wrong and they're right. I'm gonna go with the economic consensus on this one.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby patches70 on Thu Sep 25, 2014 9:07 pm

WTF? What do you think you are showing in your posted charts, BBS?

Lets start with the first one-

In the year 2000, about $30 a barrel. We have our recession with the customary deflation and we see the massive inflation extending until the collapse. That was the great credit bubble, BBS. Remember, all those toxic assets and such blamed for the great collapse?

It was just inflating a bubble, which is the business cycle, inflate bubble, bubble pops, reinflate bubble.

So from the year 2000 to the year 2014 the price of oil tripled in dollars. That's inflation man. We have a nice bout of deflation there, which is natural since monetary policy was to inflate away. At some point the party ends, doesn't it? Or do you think never ending growth is possible?
You chart just shows bubbles being inflated, popping and then reinflated. Just like I said.

The second chart doesn't do anything to disagree with what I said. I didn't talk about gold, but there has been some recent news on gold prices recently. That is that the prices of gold are being held artificially down. The story goes that the price is being held down to hide the dire nature of the economy. And your chart displays that story, doesn't it? At least recently, over time we see from your chart that Gold rises and that gold prices have historically used to track inflation. Oil is trending up, the dollar is trending down, that's inflation man. What else is it? The gold prices show it as well, as gold tends to rise when the currency decreases. That's because Gold is the historic hedge against inflation.


You even see that in the recession shade don't you? That dollars all of a sudden start being able to purchase more. Deflation is a hell of a bad thing from the POV of The Fed and the government, correct? But what about to the regular joe? If the regular fellow has some bucks set aside, deflation is a Godsend. So long as he doesn't lose his job.

But whatever,


Then there is the third chart which illustrates what's going on very well. Notice that there is virtually zero inflation from 1948 to 1973, in neither nominal or inflation adjusted. Practically zero change in the price of oil. Then of course Nixon slammed the gold window and we begin a completely new currency system and look what happens?
We get on a roller coaster ride. By design.
Which time span looks more stable in that chart, the time span from 1946 to 1973 or the time span from 1973 to 2014?
You won't answer that, but he, I tried to ask I guess. You'll obfuscate just like you say Saxi is doing, but whatever.


Correct me if I'm wrong, but Saxi says the US attacking ISIS is because the US is trying to raise the price of oil for some reason. That's bullshit obviously.
Then you come in and say the price of oil is raising because of intricacies in the oil market, which is bullshit as well. It makes a good story I guess, not as good as Saxi's, but it's still just obfuscation. The price of oil rises because the value of the currency used to purchase it falls. It's just that simple. And that falling value of the currency translates through everything, not just oil.

The only thing deflating are the things that were artificially inflated in the first place.

You might actually have a leg to stand on if the price of money was allowed to be determine naturally, and not by a central bank. But BBS, you know as well as I do that we haven't had such a thing for a very long time, the price of money determined by the market and not central planning.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 10:01 pm

What do you mean by "inflation"?

Inflation, in the real world, means that average prices are rising. Average prices of goods are denominated in the US dollar. Inflation is measured by the CPI, which bundles the prices of various goods faced by the average consumer.

Here's the inflation-ADJUSTED price of oil:

Image

That chart controls for inflation, yet the price of oil is increasing.

The price of oil rises because the value of the currency used to purchase it falls. It's just that simple. And that falling value of the currency translates through everything, not just oil.


That's wrong because the value of the currency is being controlled for, hence "inflation-adjusted."

Regardless, nominal values do not affect real values--in the long-run (i.e. 1946 to 2014). Suppose there's a global central bank and one global currency. What happens when the bank instantaneously adds two zeros to all the dollars? Of course, nominal values rise (the zeros on the dollar bills). This is inflation!! AHH!!!! Nevertheless, real values will not increase (i.e. the exchange ratios of various goods do not change). Before the change, $1 bought a bag of beans. After the change, $100 buys a bag of beans. But before and after, the real value of the beans is exactly the same--in relation to the real values of other goods.

What happens when more people demand more beans? The price goes up. (The real value of the beans, in relation to all other goods, increases).


So, the only causes of the increasing price of oil--in the long-run--are supply and demand factors--e.g. increased global demand pushes up the price. Cheaper methods of producing crude oil increases the supply, thus putting a downward pull on the real price of oil. Substituting from oil to other energy sources is a fall in the demand of oil. The significant disruption of supply chains and oil production causes a fall in supply, thus puts inflationary pressure on the price of oil (yes, "inflationary" means "prices are going up". "Inflation" usually always refers to "the increase of average prices in an economy").

All these factors cancel each other out to some degree--it depends on their magnitude (which saxi has yet to present, and he keeps failing to control for other factors). All of this is not bullshit. It's reality. Supply and demand and its effects on prices and quantities affect all scarce goods. (A good is scarce is the desires to obtain it are greater than its current quantity--e.g. breathable air is not scarce, but it is scarce if you're trapped under an avalanche).

Reals affect reals in the long-run. Period.

This is econ 101. If you really think you're right about this, then do the research, present your findings to an economist, and see what they say. If you are right about this, then your Nobel Laureate of Economics awaits you.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Thu Sep 25, 2014 10:50 pm

patches70 wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but Saxi says the US attacking ISIS is because the US is trying to raise the price of oil for some reason.


I correct you; you're wrong. I said the U.S. doing anything at all is because it's trying to raise the price of oil.

    1. It's just commonly accepted the U.S. intentionally floored the price of oil in the 1980s (repealing the Windfall Profits Tax, introducing the NEP in Canada, etc.), leading to the giant oil surpluses of that decade, the collapse of the world oil market, the collapse of the Soviet economy, and the collapse of the USSR itself. That's not even open for debate.

    2. We also know the U.S. is engaging in actions that, whether or not they're intentional, are skyrocketing the price of oil (engaging in a foreign military policy that leads to the instability of oil producing regions, incentivizing domestic car production and purchasing, refusing to access its domestic oil to capacity, etc.).

    3. So set aside all the gold/Federal Reserve shit, or, like BBS, copy/paste catchphrases he doesn't really understand but thinks will get him into Mets' drawers or impress Dukasaur. First lens analysis suggests that in U.S. grand strategy the ability to repeat targeted disruptions generates behavioral changes. One-off attacks dissipate as the system returns to a state of equilibrium.

The fact the U.S. is skyrocketing the price of oil is a fact. My hypothesis is that it's to kneecap China which is in a reverse position in 2014 as the USSR was in 1984; that hypothesis could be wrong. And, as it's a hypothesis, is nothing more than a proposition advanced without tested proof. (Which is why BBS' ranting about quants makes him sound like a confident C+ college freshman at the end of the first week of classes [10x more than the fact he feigned familiarity with a journal article he never read and then tried to stage a Laser/Light Show when called out]. Clearly Symmetry was right about him.)
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Fri Sep 26, 2014 6:45 am

saxitoxin wrote:
patches70 wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but Saxi says the US attacking ISIS is because the US is trying to raise the price of oil for some reason.


I correct you; you're wrong. I said the U.S. doing anything at all is because it's trying to raise the price of oil.

    1. It's just commonly accepted the U.S. intentionally floored the price of oil in the 1980s (repealing the Windfall Profits Tax, introducing the NEP in Canada, etc.), leading to the giant oil surpluses of that decade, the collapse of the world oil market, the collapse of the Soviet economy, and the collapse of the USSR itself. That's not even open for debate.

    2. We also know the U.S. is engaging in actions that, whether or not they're intentional, are skyrocketing the price of oil (engaging in a foreign military policy that leads to the instability of oil producing regions, incentivizing domestic car production and purchasing, refusing to access its domestic oil to capacity, etc.).

    3. So set aside all the gold/Federal Reserve shit, or, like BBS, copy/paste catchphrases he doesn't really understand but thinks will get him into Mets' drawers or impress Dukasaur. First lens analysis suggests that in U.S. grand strategy the ability to repeat targeted disruptions generates behavioral changes. One-off attacks dissipate as the system returns to a state of equilibrium.

The fact the U.S. is skyrocketing the price of oil is a fact. My hypothesis is that it's to kneecap China which is in a reverse position in 2014 as the USSR was in 1984; that hypothesis could be wrong. And, as it's a hypothesis, is nothing more than a proposition advanced without tested proof. (Which is why BBS' ranting about quants makes him sound like a confident C+ college freshman at the end of the first week of classes [10x more than the fact he feigned familiarity with a journal article he never read and then tried to stage a Laser/Light Show when called out]. Clearly Symmetry was right about him.)


lol, wow. The US did all that, but it can't seem to manage the money of its economy properly nor win the war on drugs, poverty, and what not. hahaha! Plots within plots!

You definitely are a crackpot conspiracy theorist. The main give-away is not differentiating between intended and unintended consequences. The analysis is simpler when you always assume there's some designer who intended for the outcomes, which you don't like, to occur (note also your IQ-lowering stories about good v. evil). Then there's failing to control for other causes--e.g. the increase in the price of oil, but that's 'easily countered' by sticking to one's ignorance. Haha, wow. Sax, you're breaking down fast, buddy!
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Fri Sep 26, 2014 12:40 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:
patches70 wrote:Correct me if I'm wrong, but Saxi says the US attacking ISIS is because the US is trying to raise the price of oil for some reason.


I correct you; you're wrong. I said the U.S. doing anything at all is because it's trying to raise the price of oil.

    1. It's just commonly accepted the U.S. intentionally floored the price of oil in the 1980s (repealing the Windfall Profits Tax, introducing the NEP in Canada, etc.), leading to the giant oil surpluses of that decade, the collapse of the world oil market, the collapse of the Soviet economy, and the collapse of the USSR itself. That's not even open for debate.

    2. We also know the U.S. is engaging in actions that, whether or not they're intentional, are skyrocketing the price of oil (engaging in a foreign military policy that leads to the instability of oil producing regions, incentivizing domestic car production and purchasing, refusing to access its domestic oil to capacity, etc.).

    3. So set aside all the gold/Federal Reserve shit, or, like BBS, copy/paste catchphrases he doesn't really understand but thinks will get him into Mets' drawers or impress Dukasaur. First lens analysis suggests that in U.S. grand strategy the ability to repeat targeted disruptions generates behavioral changes. One-off attacks dissipate as the system returns to a state of equilibrium.

The fact the U.S. is skyrocketing the price of oil is a fact. My hypothesis is that it's to kneecap China which is in a reverse position in 2014 as the USSR was in 1984; that hypothesis could be wrong. And, as it's a hypothesis, is nothing more than a proposition advanced without tested proof. (Which is why BBS' ranting about quants makes him sound like a confident C+ college freshman at the end of the first week of classes [10x more than the fact he feigned familiarity with a journal article he never read and then tried to stage a Laser/Light Show when called out]. Clearly Symmetry was right about him.)


lol, wow. The US did all that, but it can't seem to manage the money of its economy properly nor win the war on drugs, poverty, and what not. hahaha! Plots within plots!

You definitely are a crackpot conspiracy theorist. The main give-away is not differentiating between intended and unintended consequences. The analysis is simpler when you always assume there's some designer who intended for the outcomes, which you don't like, to occur (note also your IQ-lowering stories about good v. evil). Then there's failing to control for other causes--e.g. the increase in the price of oil, but that's 'easily countered' by sticking to one's ignorance. Haha, wow. Sax, you're breaking down fast, buddy!


You know you're just digging yourself into a bigger hole, right?

While it's not an inherently unsound rhetorical tactic to try to deflect the intellectual deconstruction you just suffered after being exposed as a Frank Abagnale by trying to marginalize your exposer, it doesn't usually work all that well when you're simultaneously citing the "works" of high school dropout Glenn Beck to support your claims about secret government disinfo campaigns and KGB plots.

I can't believe poor Symmetry isn't around to watch this show; he would have loved it. :(
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby nietzsche on Fri Sep 26, 2014 1:35 pm

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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby Metsfanmax on Fri Sep 26, 2014 2:06 pm

saxi, I think that the queueing theory thing is a complete non sequitur for this discussion. As has been pointed out, all it does is give us a possible context in which to understand the history of global oil prices. Your conclusion does not at all follow from the things the paper says. They're discussing how queueing theory can be used to understand the relationship between 1) the demand for oil and the supply of oil and 2) the supply of crude oil and the production capability to refine it. Importantly, because there is a large bottleneck -- they say we're operating at close to 99% capacity right now at refineries -- where oil has to wait a relatively long time to be refined, there are significant price effects. If we ease off that bottleneck somewhat by destroying ISIS' crude extraction capabilities, that should ease some of the tension on the queue. This will to some extent offset the fact that prices will rise because demand is so large. In fact, because we're so close to maximum capacity, and they point out that the curve is exponential in this region, a small decrease in production capability can have a very large effect in easing the tension on the queue. Since they don't actually provide any framework for calculating what the sign of the change will be for a given market disruption, I don't know how you could draw any conclusions from this paper. All it says that disruptions have major effects in the current global situation -- it doesn't say how one could predict the effects of a given disruption.

Now, it seems that your point was that the U.S. tries to keep prices high by instilling "uncertainty" in the global market. But that's not what the paper talks about. There may be effects on things like oil futures as a result of this, but they're specifically talking about the relationship between demand and production capacity. Just having "uncertainty" doesn't matter. Said another way, they're not arguing (as far as I can tell) that there are long-term price consequences as a result of these temporary price shocks.

saxitoxin wrote:What's the section header on page 4 of the paper I referenced?


DEMAND OUTPACING SUPPLY

Right. So, just to explain to the gallery why I asked this several times, I wanted to confirm what I suspected - that BBS hadn't actually read the paper with which he feigned such intimate familiarity. (I cued in on that like a 10th grade English teacher cues in on a book report that starts "Huckleberry Finn is the story of of a Finnish boy who works on a berry farm.")

    The link I posted was only to an abstract on Questia; the quote was from page 9. So either he had a subscription to Competition Forum or he accessed it on LexisAcademic, and I gave him the benefit of the doubt for both but he dodged and danced when asked to name a section header ... a header that didn't exist.


Aside from the fact that there is a section header on page 4 (see the above), and aside from the fact that in the PDF copy I pulled, page 9 is the last references page, this is not relevant because if he did read the paper that doesn't necessarily mean he remembered what was on page 4. Having taken one look at this paper, I never want to read it again, I don't blame BBS for that. I automatically disregard papers where the primary charts were made in Microsoft Excel.

DY wrote:Mets is from New York though. He likes the Mets. He's probably a Jew, so it makes sense that he would be a zionist.


1) I'm not a Zionist. 2) My father is Jewish and was born in Israel. His parents were concentration camp survivors. Saying bad things about Israel is difficult for me to do. I completely recognize that it is a cognitive bias I have. I think that I do a reasonable job in trying to have a balanced perspective on this issue, but there are second-order effects from trying to keep that balance.

It's adjusted for inflation, yet the price of oil keeps increasing. Why?


I've been through this with patches already. He doesn't seem to have a very good grasp on nominal vs. real prices. Something about the CPI being bullshit. Not really sure what his argument is.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby nietzsche on Fri Sep 26, 2014 2:17 pm

Mets wrote:Aside from the fact that there is a section header on page 4 (see the above), this is not relevant because if he did read the paper that doesn't necessarily mean he remembered what was on page 4. Having taken one look at this paper, I never want to read it again, I don't blame BBS for that.


oh come on!!

That's just buying him time to go the university library and access the journal. Overstretching much? If that was the case, it's up to BBS to say so.



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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Fri Sep 26, 2014 2:44 pm

Metsfanmax wrote:saxi, I think that the queueing theory thing is a complete non sequitur for this discussion. As has been pointed out, all it does is give us a possible context in which to understand the history of global oil prices. Your conclusion does not at all follow from the things the paper says. They're discussing how queueing theory can be used to understand the relationship between 1) the demand for oil and the supply of oil and 2) the supply of crude oil and the production capability to refine it. Importantly, because there is a large bottleneck -- they say we're operating at close to 99% capacity right now at refineries -- where oil has to wait a relatively long time to be refined, there are significant price effects. If we ease off that bottleneck somewhat by destroying ISIS' crude extraction capabilities, that should ease some of the tension on the queue. This will to some extent offset the fact that prices will rise because demand is so large. In fact, because we're so close to maximum capacity, and they point out that the curve is exponential in this region, a small decrease in production capability can have a very large effect in easing the tension on the queue. Since they don't actually provide any framework for calculating what the sign of the change will be for a given market disruption, I don't know how you could draw any conclusions from this paper. All it says that disruptions have major effects in the current global situation -- it doesn't say how one could predict the effects of a given disruption.

Now, it seems that your point was that the U.S. tries to keep prices high by instilling "uncertainty" in the global market. But that's not what the paper talks about. There may be effects on things like oil futures as a result of this, but they're specifically talking about the relationship between demand and production capacity. Just having "uncertainty" doesn't matter. Said another way, they're not arguing (as far as I can tell) that there are long-term price consequences as a result of these temporary price shocks.


You're right, it doesn't. In fact, it has nothing to do with my hypothesis. TTBOMK, Birdwell didn't even mention the word "China" in it (maybe he did and I missed it). I referenced it only to debunk the assumption that a 0.4% disruption in oil supply would lead to a 0.4% increase in oil prices, as BBS hilariously claimed. And that's all. C'est fin. (see here)

So I probably agree with the rest of your monologue. I didn't read it (and will happily admit that), but you're most likely correct in whatever it is you said if it follows your thesis.

Metsfanmax wrote:this is not relevant because if he did read the paper that doesn't necessarily mean


Um, if he did read the paper he wouldn't have said "it's a projection decades into the future" which, like I said, is like a 10th grader submiting a book report that starts "Huckleberry Finn is the story of a Finnish boy who works in a berry garden." Either BBS is functionally illiterate in the English language or he didn't read it (and, for the record, he's already tacitly admitted the latter when he was unable to identify the page 4 header and failed to call-out the falsity of the follow-up claim that there was no page 4 header, so I'm not sure why you're even pushing this point).

Metsfanmax wrote:I'm not a Zionist


that's open to discussion

Metsfanmax wrote:I automatically disregard papers where the primary charts were made in Microsoft Excel.


You haven't read very many social science papers, have you?

Anyway, whatever. Mets, do you also subscribe to BBS' belief in a secret communist disinfo campaign that he heard about on the Glenn Beck Show? Also, how do you feel about how BBS went from virulently denouncing Dukusaur for using "anti-Semitism" - even calling for Dukusaur to be banned - to then screaming "anti-Semitism" himself once he was exposed as a Frank Abagnale? It's important we know where you net out so we know whether you are someone to take seriously or yours is also a $5 online pseudo-intellectual act.

A committee to investigate intellectual dishonesty has just been convened and I'm the only member. Now answer.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby tzor on Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:17 pm

saxitoxin wrote:While it's not an inherently unsound rhetorical tactic to try to deflect the intellectual deconstruction you just suffered after being exposed as a Frank Abagnale by trying to marginalize your exposer, it doesn't usually work all that well when you're simultaneously citing the "works" of high school dropout Glenn Beck to support your claims about secret government disinfo campaigns and KGB plots.


BREAKING NEWS ... SAXITOXIN HAS MAJOR "MAN CRUSH" ON MAJOR NETWORK PRODUCER ... REFUSES TO SEEK TREATMENT!

Conquer Club political pundit and otherwise rabid antisemite, saxitoxin lashed out critically against BigBallinStalin accusing of (gasp) citing the works of Glenn Beck. We at Tzorifact decided to fact check his statement. According to Wikipedia, Beck graduated High School at the age of 18, although he did drop out of a course he later took at Yale University on "Early Christology."

Based on this we conclude saxitoxin's claim of Beck being a "high school dropout" is LIAR, LIAR, PANTS ON FIRE. (And worthy of the KGB operative that he is.)
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby Metsfanmax on Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:35 pm

saxitoxin wrote:You're right, it doesn't. In fact, it has nothing to do with my hypothesis. TTBOMK, Birdwell didn't even mention the word "China" in it (maybe he did and I missed it). I referenced it only to debunk the assumption that a 0.4% disruption in oil supply would lead to a 0.4% increase in oil prices, as BBS hilariously claimed. And that's all. C'est fin. (see here)


I understand, but it doesn't actually debunk his hypothesis. BBS is thinking about long-run effects, while you are thinking about possible short-term supply and demand mismatches which an efficient market would sort out in the long run.

Um, if he did read the paper he wouldn't have said "it's a projection decades into the future" which, like I said, is like a 10th grader submiting a book report that starts "Huckleberry Finn is the story of a Finnish boy who works in a berry garden." Either BBS is functionally illiterate in the English language or he didn't read it (and, for the record, he's already tacitly admitted the latter when he was unable to identify the page 4 header and failed to call-out the falsity of the follow-up claim that there was no page 4 header, so I'm not sure why you're even pushing this point).


I just felt like pointing it out. BBS probably didn't read the paper. I don't care.

Metsfanmax wrote:I automatically disregard papers where the primary charts were made in Microsoft Excel.


You haven't read very many social science papers, have you?


Don't believe many of them. They usually have tiny sample sizes, don't control for enough factors, lots of p-value hacking, not enough understanding of basic statistics, etc.



Not sure. It sounds like the type of thing the KGB would want to do if they were capable of it. I put about as much faith into it as I do the conspiracy theories on the Conquer Club about how the U.S. is successfully engaged in a massive campaign to control the global oil market.

Also, how do you feel about how BBS went from virulently denouncing Dukusaur for using "anti-Semitism" - even calling for Dukusaur to be banned - to then screaming "anti-Semitism" himself once he was exposed as a Frank Abagnale?


Who is this Dukusaur person and why should I care about him?
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Fri Sep 26, 2014 3:37 pm

tzor wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:While it's not an inherently unsound rhetorical tactic to try to deflect the intellectual deconstruction you just suffered after being exposed as a Frank Abagnale by trying to marginalize your exposer, it doesn't usually work all that well when you're simultaneously citing the "works" of high school dropout Glenn Beck to support your claims about secret government disinfo campaigns and KGB plots.


BREAKING NEWS ... SAXITOXIN HAS MAJOR "MAN CRUSH" ON MAJOR NETWORK PRODUCER ... REFUSES TO SEEK TREATMENT!

Conquer Club political pundit and otherwise rabid antisemite, saxitoxin lashed out critically against BigBallinStalin accusing of (gasp) citing the works of Glenn Beck. We at Tzorifact decided to fact check his statement. According to Wikipedia, Beck graduated High School at the age of 18, although he did drop out of a course he later took at Yale University on "Early Christology."

Based on this we conclude saxitoxin's claim of Beck being a "high school dropout" is LIAR, LIAR, PANTS ON FIRE. (And worthy of the KGB operative that he is.)


I stand corrected. Glenn Beck is a high school graduate. :D

While I'm expressing contrition, let me go on the record and say that - based on their style and manner of composition - I'm absolutely confident that both Mets and BBS are high school graduates, too.

Now who said I'm not willing to give a heartfelt apology when I'm wrong?

Metsfanmax wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:You're right, it doesn't. In fact, it has nothing to do with my hypothesis. TTBOMK, Birdwell didn't even mention the word "China" in it (maybe he did and I missed it). I referenced it only to debunk the assumption that a 0.4% disruption in oil supply would lead to a 0.4% increase in oil prices, as BBS hilariously claimed. And that's all. C'est fin. (see here)


I understand


no you didn't

Metsfanmax wrote:


Not sure. It sounds like the type of thing the KGB would want to do if they were capable of it.


delicious :D
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby Dukasaur on Fri Sep 26, 2014 4:44 pm

Click image to enlarge.
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Is it my imagination or does the guy in front look a bit like Eric Idle in character as Sir Robin?
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Fri Sep 26, 2014 4:47 pm

Metsfanmax wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:You're right, it doesn't. In fact, it has nothing to do with my hypothesis. TTBOMK, Birdwell didn't even mention the word "China" in it (maybe he did and I missed it). I referenced it only to debunk the assumption that a 0.4% disruption in oil supply would lead to a 0.4% increase in oil prices, as BBS hilariously claimed. And that's all. C'est fin. (see here)


I understand, but it doesn't actually debunk his hypothesis. BBS is thinking about long-run effects, while you are thinking about possible short-term supply and demand mismatches which an efficient market would sort out in the long run.

Um, if he did read the paper he wouldn't have said "it's a projection decades into the future" which, like I said, is like a 10th grader submiting a book report that starts "Huckleberry Finn is the story of a Finnish boy who works in a berry garden." Either BBS is functionally illiterate in the English language or he didn't read it (and, for the record, he's already tacitly admitted the latter when he was unable to identify the page 4 header and failed to call-out the falsity of the follow-up claim that there was no page 4 header, so I'm not sure why you're even pushing this point).


I just felt like pointing it out. BBS probably didn't read the paper. I don't care.


To clarify, in my response to patches, I acknowledge that the US's bombing people and refineries in the Middle East does cause problems to the supply chain of oil; the question of magnitude remains--as you've said. There doesn't need to be a 9+ page paper of unknown credentials to support this claim, so it was just a saxi smokescreen.


Given the rest of saxi's responses, it's clear he's not interested in advancing his argument. He'll just keep hammering on my thick skin with harmless ad hominem and straw man fallacies.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Fri Sep 26, 2014 4:52 pm

saxitoxin wrote:
I can't believe poor Symmetry isn't around to watch this show; he would have loved it. :(


So, the only thing that bothers me on the internet are good arguments. Internet users' opinions about me don't matter, but they can be amusing.

For example, your behavior is also similar to Symmetry's. Whenever Symmetry is presented with a means-end analysis or anything related to economics which contradicts his stance, he throws up his arms and hollers about my credentials. Just as whenever your argument is countered with any kind of economic reasoning, you throw up your arms and holler about my credentials. During the hollering, both of y'all forget to actually defend your argument.

Pretty soon you'll be hysterically shrieking about a cupcake death tribunal where you'll be judged by your fellow CC users.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby DoomYoshi on Fri Sep 26, 2014 4:54 pm

Metsfanmax wrote: My father is Jewish and was born in Israel.


Nice. I thought it was a lucky guess, although since your last name is DerRheinReich, I should have guessed it.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Fri Sep 26, 2014 4:57 pm

Dukasaur wrote:
Click image to enlarge.
image

Is it my imagination or does the guy in front look a bit like Eric Idle in character as Sir Robin?
Image


I'm sure saxitoxin has another conspiracy theory about how Eric Idle is actually a British M5 agent, many of whom were training the ISIS to target Kurds, who were being trained by CIA agents and the Iranian Guard, who coincidentally really got along during the latest World Cup.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby tzor on Fri Sep 26, 2014 8:16 pm

saxitoxin wrote:I stand corrected. Glenn Beck is a high school graduate. :D

While I'm expressing contrition, let me go on the record and say that - based on their style and manner of composition - I'm absolutely confident that both Mets and BBS are high school graduates, too.

Now who said I'm not willing to give a heartfelt apology when I'm wrong?


It's good to admit you are wrong on occasion. I don't often talk about my level of education but ...
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:44 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:Given the rest of saxi's responses, it's clear he's not interested in advancing his argument.


The first thing you've been right about. While your implosion may go down as one of the most brilliant train wrecks in the history of the internet, I'm afraid I don't argue with train wrecks. You can't argue a train back onto the tracks.

You've been exposed as a Frank Abagnale trying to impress internet randos with a pseudo-intellectual act. That's just so ... weird. You know that, right?

BigBallinStalin wrote:He'll just keep hammering on my thick skin with harmless ad hominem and straw man fallacies.


I will give you that, you do have thick skin. Anyone else would be so embarrassed after what you've just gone through in the last 10 posts that they wouldn't show their face again for a month.

Now that, in your two notches diminished state, you've rebranded yourself with Glenn Beck, Team Tzor, and warnings of socialist conspiracies, I'm looking forward to hearing how "America in't a democracy - it's a constitutional republic!" So, carry on. Conquer Club just got a whole lot more interesting! :D :D :D
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:54 pm

saxitoxin wrote:
BigBallinStalin wrote:Given the rest of saxi's responses, it's clear he's not interested in advancing his argument.


The first thing you've been right about. While your implosion may go down as one of the most brilliant train wrecks in the history of the internet, I'm afraid I don't argue with train wrecks. You can't argue a train back onto the tracks.

You've been exposed as a Frank Abagnale trying to impress internet randos with a pseudo-intellectual act. That's just so ... sad.

BigBallinStalin wrote:He'll just keep hammering on my thick skin with harmless ad hominem and straw man fallacies.


I will give you that, you do have thick skin. Anyone else would be so embarrassed after what you've just gone through in the last 10 posts that they wouldn't show their face again for a month.

Now that, in your two notches diminished state, you've rebranded yourself with Glenn Beck, Team Tzor, and warnings of socialist conspiracies, I'm looking forward to hearing how "America in't a democracy - it's a constitutional republic!" So, carry on. Conquer Club just got a whole lot more interesting.



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Can you feel it, sax? Can you feel the sensation of being DOUBLE TROLLED?!

[cue animal pic, joking about poor sax]

I knew the "conspiracy theory" shit would set you off. Then, I randomly happened upon an interesting article by an ex-KGB agent since the intelligence community is an interest of mine. Not only did he mention "KGB propaganda efforts and anti-Semitism," but to my surprise it was from theblaze.com. I just had to post this shit in CC. Oh, man, did you FREAK out!! lololol!


Anyway, you're still wrong, but I'll let you calm down so that you can clarify your argument in all its clarified glory.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Fri Sep 26, 2014 10:57 pm

Furthermore,
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby saxitoxin on Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:00 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:I knew the "conspiracy theory" shit would set you off. Then, I randomly happened upon an interesting article by an ex-KGB agent since the intelligence community is an interest of mine. Not only did he mention "KGB propaganda efforts and anti-Semitism," but to my surprise it was from theblaze.com. I just had to post this shit in CC. Oh, man, did you FREAK out!! lololol!


uh huh, it was all part of your master plan

BBS - all kidding aside, I actually do feel kind-of sad for you right now.
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Re: ISIS - Who da f*ck are you?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Fri Sep 26, 2014 11:04 pm

I envision cupcake tribunals in your future.
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