waauw wrote:
It's one thing to have reservations and criticism, it's a whole other thing to push other nations buttons in public. The guy has made great moves electorally, but not diplomatically(with the exception of Putin).
You don't know that yet, you imagine it, but you don't know that. How could you, Trump isn't even in office.
It appears as though Trump views China as more of a threat than Russia to the US, and he's probably right about that. At some point China and the US are going to have trade negotiations with the Trump administration.
If you can't see how Trump is setting himself up to have the strongest bargaining position before that time comes then I'm afraid I can't help you very much. This is all negotiation tactics it seems to me. Trump is a master at it no matter what the Hillary campaign has made you believe otherwise.
If China believes Trump is more hardline on negotiations, and China needs the US obviously, then China may be more willing to give greater concessions than they would with someone like Obama who says the same stuff as Trump (but more "diplomatically") but he has no will to act upon those words. Therefore there is no real reason China would take Obama seriously. Trump's undiplomatic talk makes it look like he is more willing to actually use American economic power to beat China into submission which is the US' greatest weapon.
Trump has already given China something that they are very much in favor of and happy about, the death of the TPP. Trump did that. Trump was a major player in getting the public to truly start saying "f*ck that deal". There were grumblings, fools like Barney Ssackers who nobody gives a shit about, but Trump and Sanders agreed on that issue at least.
China was excluded from the TPP but would have sought to get in if it looked like it would get through. They couldn't afford the hit they would have taken from it.
Now when the time comes with Trump, China is going to give a hell of a lot more than they would have. If China tries the line they've used in the past then it won't work out so well for them. They'll know this and they'll do the right thing for themselves, which is to give in to Trump's browbeating and offer concessions they would never have done with anyone else.
Then of course, China will do everything she can to get around the agreements they make, but one has to already expect that when dealing with them.
The game will go on, but Trump is probably better at that particular game than Obama ever was. After all, the TPP was his baby. Obama tried to sell the TPP by saying it would put China "in her place" take away China's ability to "cheat" their way to trade advantage and no one believed that did they? Nobody trusted Obama in this because he says one thing and does another like all politicians (just like Trump).
The difference is that Trump is convincing people that his way is going to be like a golden brick road and if anyone wants to get on board the train rolling along that road then they gotta play ball. Read:China you best get on board. So far it seems that China will indeed get on board in the end. I guess we'll see. When that scenario plays out then you'd be well served to reevaluate your "bad moves diplomatically" view. You might be right, but will you be able to admit that you were wrong? That's the question I suppose.
I don't know if Trump can pull off his scheme, if his brand of diplomacy will work, but I do feel that the US' current way is full of shit and has caused quite a bit of turmoil around the world for the benefit of a few elite. I don't mind giving the Trump approach a try at least. I'm becoming more cognizant of his style and it's impressive. I don't know if it'll work, but there is no reason to automatically believe it won't. I'd rather see how it goes before coming to final judgment.
I don't know if China really is a currency manipulator but if they devalue their currency to boost their exports, more power to them I say. When they do it what it amounts to is a subsidy to the importer and China cuts her own throat by this supposed currency manipulation. That's why when I see politicians talking about how China manipulates their currency unfairly I know that's not what the politician is actually talking about. There is another angle. I don't always know what those other angles are but I do know that this is just rhetoric and the politicians themselves don't actually believe it and if they do then they are economic illiterates and whatever they are trying to do won't work because they would be building on a false premise.
If Trump falls into the former then it's because he is trying to leverage the Chinese into a weaker negotiating position. If it's the latter then what the f*ck ever he is trying to do probably won't work or change anything and he ain't gonna get the deal he wants to get.
Believe me, this "China is a currency manipulator" code talk. It's used to pacify domestic angst and make a politician appear to be hardline in trade negotiations with China. So when the politician comes back with some deal (i.e. TPP) they can say "this is a good deal for us!" even if it isn't.
TLDR version- Where as someone like Obama will use a ploy like the TPP to undercut China behind their back and ultimately screw America, Trump is more willing to go directly to the Chinese and and trust that he can come out of the deal with the stronger hand.
I like the latter approach better than the former. Trump's rhetoric on China is in preparation for this. That's all it is, so is China's response, they are setting up their hands and they'll play them when the time comes later. Who will win? Stay tuned to find out!
Posted: Sat Dec 03, 2016 4:18 am