Is the Bitcoin bull run starting?

[mookiemcgee]

My new take on BTC is that it's no hedge against inflation or recession, it merely mirrors the markets more dramatically. During good times it does 10 times better, and during bad times it does 10 times worse. But it will never invert the markets.

Normies saying this is the ultimate buy signal.

[TeeGee]

I'm pretty happy with my BRISE over the last 72 hours.. is it time to sell?

[mookiemcgee]

I'm pretty happy with my BRISE over the last 72 hours.. is it time to sell?

Don't know that one, it is L1?

This? https://bitgert.com/

[TeeGee]

I'm pretty happy with my BRISE over the last 72 hours.. is it time to sell?

Don't know that one, it is L1?

This? https://bitgert.com/

bitgert is BRISE on coinspot

[mookiemcgee]

I'm pretty happy with my BRISE over the last 72 hours.. is it time to sell?

Don't know that one, it is L1?

This? https://bitgert.com/

bitgert is BRISE on coinspot

Cool, yeah I'd sell at least some of it. When they pop like that it's usually followed by a slow bleedout where even if your plan is to long term hold you can buy it back cheaper by waiting for the bleeding.

I don't have any specific 'news' about that one, so I can't really why it popped and what the chances of a short term second pop is.

[mookiemcgee]

I'm pretty happy with my BRISE over the last 72 hours.. is it time to sell?

Don't know that one, it is L1?

This? https://bitgert.com/

bitgert is BRISE on coinspot

Cool, yeah I'd sell at least some of it. When they pop like that it's usually followed by a slow bleedout where even if your plan is to long term hold you can buy it back cheaper by waiting for the bleeding.

I don't have any specific 'news' about that one, so I can't really why it popped and what the chances of a short term second pop is.

Ok I just did a 5 min research session on it. Can I ask if you are 'doing' anything with it? Do you hold it in a wallet app, or is it being held at an exchange (like coinbase/ftx/binance or some other one).

It looks like you can (if you want) use it on chain now to stake/farm and earn APR. I they announce some incentives for other people to build apps on their blockchain which might be part of why it's popping (fomo is brewing). If you don't already you should follow their twitter to get a sense of what you own, and what it is doing. Twitter is the main diseminator of crypto project info, usually they also have a telegram and/or discord
https://twitter.com/bitgertbrise

[TeeGee]

I'm pretty happy with my BRISE over the last 72 hours.. is it time to sell?

Don't know that one, it is L1?

This? https://bitgert.com/

bitgert is BRISE on coinspot

Cool, yeah I'd sell at least some of it. When they pop like that it's usually followed by a slow bleedout where even if your plan is to long term hold you can buy it back cheaper by waiting for the bleeding.

I don't have any specific 'news' about that one, so I can't really why it popped and what the chances of a short term second pop is.

Thanks for the advice, just sold half.. Got back roughly my initial investment and still have enough left if it pops again, and if it fails, well, it has cost me nothing now.

BTW, i really have no idea what i am doing with crypto..

[mookiemcgee]

I'm pretty happy with my BRISE over the last 72 hours.. is it time to sell?

Don't know that one, it is L1?

This? https://bitgert.com/

bitgert is BRISE on coinspot

Cool, yeah I'd sell at least some of it. When they pop like that it's usually followed by a slow bleedout where even if your plan is to long term hold you can buy it back cheaper by waiting for the bleeding.

I don't have any specific 'news' about that one, so I can't really why it popped and what the chances of a short term second pop is.

Thanks for the advice, just sold half.. Got back roughly my initial investment and still have enough left if it pops again, and if it fails, well, it has cost me nothing now.

BTW, i really have no idea what i am doing with crypto..

Dm me anytime you have questions, the pandemic has taken me all the way down the rabbit hole.

[jimboston]

I'm pretty happy with my BRISE over the last 72 hours.. is it time to sell?

Don't know that one, it is L1?

This? https://bitgert.com/

bitgert is BRISE on coinspot

Cool, yeah I'd sell at least some of it. When they pop like that it's usually followed by a slow bleedout where even if your plan is to long term hold you can buy it back cheaper by waiting for the bleeding.

I don't have any specific 'news' about that one, so I can't really why it popped and what the chances of a short term second pop is.

Thanks for the advice, just sold half.. Got back roughly my initial investment and still have enough left if it pops again, and if it fails, well, it has cost me nothing now.

BTW, i really have no idea what i am doing with crypto..

What you should do is stay away from it…

Unless the money you “Invest” (i.e. bet) is money you can afford to lose.

Just like you were going to Vegas. It’s the same shit.

Of course a mookie will say it ain’t… but it is.

Also… f*ck you.

[TeeGee]

What you should do is stay away from it…

Unless the money you “Invest” (i.e. bet) is money you can afford to lose.

Just like you were going to Vegas. It’s the same shit.

Of course a mookie will say it ain’t… but it is.

Also… f*ck you.

It's all play money I wouldn't do it otherwise

I retired at 45, invested all the money I earned as a young dumb kid so I could enjoy the 2nd half of my life, so maybe not so dumb..

Just crypto is something I never really got involved in until recently, more of a hobby, a play thing

Mookie- at this stage i only have it held.. didn't read into the other stuff, only just seen it on twitter over the weekend when I did a google search.
is that worth doing?

[mookiemcgee]

What you should do is stay away from it…

Unless the money you “Invest” (i.e. bet) is money you can afford to lose.

Just like you were going to Vegas. It’s the same shit.

Of course a mookie will say it ain’t… but it is.

Also… f*ck you.

It's all play money I wouldn't do it otherwise

I retired at 45, invested all the money I earned as a young dumb kid so I could enjoy the 2nd half of my life, so maybe not so dumb..

Just crypto is something I never really got involved in until recently, more of a hobby, a play thing

Mookie- at this stage i only have it held.. didn't read into the other stuff, only just seen it on twitter over the weekend when I did a google search.
is that worth doing?

It is truly kind of a rabbit hole of learning.,, there is a ton of value at the end of the tunnel but it can't be a rough, time consuming ride. It is much easier to just buy/sell token and speculate on prices. Just understand when you are doing this, that a more educated investor is out there making an APR for just holding something and that kinda dilutes the speculative value. Alot of protocols do these APR incentives to get people to make the jump, but you also get sucked in and don't tend to sell the token because it's 'earning' for you. If the token prices goes way up in a year that's great, but if it just trends down then those rewards aren't really worth much. I really know little/nothing about this specific one you own, but alot of people start with interacting from a wallet on Eth, or polygon, Avalanche or many others that have gone online over the last 12 months.

Below is a dashboard showing the most popular chains people have their coins on (as opposed to with an broker/exchange)
https://defillama.com/chains
Eth is the top, but transaction fees are generally the highest.
Tron is kind of a weird one, it's only been in the top 10 for a while because it's trying to launch a big stablecoin project.
BSC - is Binance (worlds largest exchange/broker) own smart chain they built. It was the second one after ETH to go live with smart contracts. Pretty good and cheap fees but some people don't like it because it's 'centralized'. Binance (a company) has too much control.
Polygon and Avalanche are different but similar to ETH. They are trying to be more scalable and cheaper than ETH.
Solana uses a totally different coding language and is fundamentally different from ETH but to you the end user it feels pretty much the same. Very cheap fees, has had some issues with the chain going offline temporarily. Very venture Capital money heavy, so also kinda gets the too centralized tag.

If you look up Bitgert, it recognizes it but lists $0 in TVL. if you click on include staking it shows $58 million. So basically there is 58 million dollars worth of this coin or maybe some other coins like stablecoins or eth or something that other investors are getting on chain, likely earning interest in some type of coin. What the APR is depends on what/where they are locking and i just don't know enough about this bitgert ecosystem to say anymore.
https://defillama.com/protocol/bitgert


Ok sorry, it's hard for me to write these more briefly lol

[Dukasaur]

Where's the bottoms?

[mookiemcgee]

Where's the bottoms?

The general feeling out there is... traditional finance too bearish for any significant bounce. Some are saying we keep trending down and bottom out around 8-9k in the next 12-18 months. My personal view is we could go that low but only if a few things all line up that are bearish for like all markets (fed keeps raising rates, energy prices keep going up, ect). There are some other folks i follow that don't believe it will drop below 16-17k for longer than a day but most of those cases also call for prolonged sideways crabbing. There are at least a few people I follow calling for a rally back to like 35k by Christmas

In some sense even though most predict continued pain its not a bad time to be slowly accumulating... the downside is probably not more than a 50% drop in worst case, and the upside (in the chance general sentiment is wrong, or if fed decides market can't take more rate increases, or Ukraine issue gets resolved without further energy wars between russia and europe) is pretty high.

[SemmSL]

It is too early to tell if the Bitcoin bull run is over. Many factors could affect its price in the near future, and the market is always unpredictable. That said, the current market is showing signs of a strong upward trend, and many investors are feeling optimistic that Bitcoin could continue to rise in value. Ultimately, only time will tell if the bull run is over or not.

[Maxleod]

Now the spambots are using chatgpt. Still a long way to go though.

[mookiemcgee]

lol, the BTC bullrun ended at the start of Q2 2022... this is now enshrined. but that means we are only 3 years away from the next big run!

My bags were exceedingly heavy because they were so underwater in Q3/Q4 but inshallah Q1 has brought my portfolio massive returns and we are deep into 6 figure territory again. Expecting things to slowly taper down again the rest of 2023 but would love to be wrong.

Duk posted 'wheres the bottom' in Sept, and it appears the local bottom was about 2 month later when FTX happened and Solana lost 90% of it's value in like 2 week and most of it's JPEGs quickly became worthless (it never really had meaningful defi). It's hard finding images I can post on CC so this one basically ends at the bottom in Nov/Dec 2022.



Historically the blue areas are the best times to buy BTC specifically... but it's also when things seem the most hopeless and like crypto is all going to zero. If you bought BTC 2.5 months ago you are up about 50%. BTC is still the least volatile of the major cryptos out there. ETH has stayed pretty closely coupled but has it's own catalysts that occasionally decouple it.
It's still a pretty attractive time to buy with a long term mindset, and you are longterm you should be dollar cost averaging with small buys all through 2023... with that said IMO opinion we are more likely to see lower prices later this year. i'll make a modest prediction now that you will see BTC get to the low six figures by the end of 2025. It's still the bluest of bluechips even if tech wise it's getting lapped 100x over by ETH and eth L2s.

If i make it to 7 figs, I will post my wallet address via debank link. If you want a peek behind the curtain now I'll do it via dm.

[HitRed]

Cool chart

[mookiemcgee]

Cool chart

You can find a fully updated version of this here https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/ ... bow-chart/

There are lots of other interesting ones on the site. the 'old' model was called stock to flow, that was really focused on growth exceptions based on Supply(real data, the dot lines are 'halvening events'- every 4 years the amount of new supply through mining is cut in half) with assumptions made about demand based on logarithmic growth curves (kinda looking at the internet adoption curve of the 90's/00s and applying it to bitcoin adoption). The chart held superstrong for about 10 years but we broke away from it in 2021, why is a matter of some debate (Fed raising interest rates for the first time in BTCs history, or demand for 'the rest of crypto' cut into BTC demand, or the chart was never right because it focused too much on supply side, or the chart was always right and we are just crazy undervalued and the next run will be super-massive). My view is it's a bit of the first 3

Here's a current image of stock to flow...

[Dukasaur]

Yeah, I've pretty much given up on BTC.

Bought a few batches between April and June of 2021. It went down all summer.

Went up again in the fall of '21 and I could potentially have made some money, but I was busy at work and not watching so I missed it. By the time I looked at it again, in February of '22, it had sunk again.

Waited a full year after that for another peak, and finally sold it for a big loss in February of '23. Of course the day after I sold, it started going up again, lol.

[mookiemcgee]

Ok so forget about 'store of value' or 'hedge against inflation' and all the other talking points you've heard.... This is probably the best relatively concise explanation of why BTC (and crypto generally) is important and why 'decentralization' is so important.

https://twitter.com/watcherguru/status/ ... wifaHajdGQ

[jimboston]

I just listened to a Podcast taking about the inherent traceability of Bitcoin… and how it’s not the the anonymous haven that was sold ‘ that ‘normies’ like me think.

Pretty interesting listen… same guy who wrote “The Big Short” and “Moneyball”, Michael Lewis.

[mookiemcgee]

I just listened to a Podcast taking about the inherent traceability of Bitcoin… and how it’s not the the anonymous haven that was sold ‘ that ‘normies’ like me think.

Pretty interesting listen… same guy who wrote “The Big Short” and “Moneyball”, Michael Lewis.

It's a open public ledger, nothing about transactions using it is anonymous. By definition and design it's the opposite, and that's part of what makes it secure and stable. Anyone, anytime can audit all transactions any given wallet has done going back to the very first transactions 12+years ago.

That said what is public is the wallet 'address', anyone can create a new wallet anytime without providing any personal identifying information. It's really the point at which 'fiat' gets turned into 'digital asset'(or vice versa) that involves 3rd parties (like coinbase, kraken, ...FTX) who in most of the world have to follow 'know your customer' requirements of the countries they operate in.


That probably sounds pretty wonky, and I'm happy to answer any questions. There are 'other' cryptos that don't have public ledger systems, but most of these 3rd parties (at least ones that have any US customers can't/won't list them as options to buy (example = Monero). But even if you have private transacting on the blockchain, at some point if you want to turn it back into fiat you need some 3rd party involved to do it.

The 'old school' way around this form of identity requirement was P2P (person to person) btc for fiat exchanges. Where say Sam in London send Jim $500 via money order in the mail, and Jim sends Sam a matching amount of bitcoin from wallet to wallet once received. But that side of the industry was inherently dangerous (scams) and is effectively dead, the old most successful website for matching buyers and sellers just closed down last month.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/localbit ... ge-service

[jimboston]

I just listened to a Podcast taking about the inherent traceability of Bitcoin… and how it’s not the the anonymous haven that was sold ‘ that ‘normies’ like me think.

Pretty interesting listen… same guy who wrote “The Big Short” and “Moneyball”, Michael Lewis.

It's a open public ledger, nothing about transactions using it is anonymous. By definition and design it's the opposite, and that's part of what makes it secure and stable. Anyone, anytime can audit all transactions any given wallet has done going back to the very first transactions 12+years ago.

That said what is public is the wallet 'address', anyone can create a new wallet anytime without providing any personal identifying information. It's really the point at which 'fiat' gets turned into 'digital asset'(or vice versa) that involves 3rd parties (like coinbase, kraken, ...FTX) who in most of the world have to follow 'know your customer' requirements of the countries they operate in.


That probably sounds pretty wonky, and I'm happy to answer any questions. There are 'other' cryptos that don't have public ledger systems, but most of these 3rd parties (at least ones that have any US customers can't/won't list them as options to buy (example = Monero). But even if you have private transacting on the blockchain, at some point if you want to turn it back into fiat you need some 3rd party involved to do it.

The 'old school' way around this form of identity requirement was P2P (person to person) btc for fiat exchanges. Where say Sam in London send Jim $500 via money order in the mail, and Jim sends Sam a matching amount of bitcoin from wallet to wallet once received. But that side of the industry was inherently dangerous (scams) and is effectively dead, the old most successful website for matching buyers and sellers just closed down last month.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/localbit ... ge-service

The Podcast does a decent job explaining what you just said.

Though it’s more traceable on the blockchain side because you can sometimes figure out when one “entity” (either an individual or some other type of entity) may own multiple accounts or coins. The coins appear separate at first glance… but by tracing transactions you can see they are owned by the same entity. This makes it even harder to do dirty deeds.

I’m surprised Hackers ask for Bitcoin when they hack systems for Ransom. Theoretically the FBI could (with appropriate warrants) track the hacks to the culprits. Of course if the hackers live in countries without extradition treaties and/or countries that support the hackers then it’s moot.

[mookiemcgee]

I just listened to a Podcast taking about the inherent traceability of Bitcoin… and how it’s not the the anonymous haven that was sold ‘ that ‘normies’ like me think.

Pretty interesting listen… same guy who wrote “The Big Short” and “Moneyball”, Michael Lewis.

It's a open public ledger, nothing about transactions using it is anonymous. By definition and design it's the opposite, and that's part of what makes it secure and stable. Anyone, anytime can audit all transactions any given wallet has done going back to the very first transactions 12+years ago.

That said what is public is the wallet 'address', anyone can create a new wallet anytime without providing any personal identifying information. It's really the point at which 'fiat' gets turned into 'digital asset'(or vice versa) that involves 3rd parties (like coinbase, kraken, ...FTX) who in most of the world have to follow 'know your customer' requirements of the countries they operate in.


That probably sounds pretty wonky, and I'm happy to answer any questions. There are 'other' cryptos that don't have public ledger systems, but most of these 3rd parties (at least ones that have any US customers can't/won't list them as options to buy (example = Monero). But even if you have private transacting on the blockchain, at some point if you want to turn it back into fiat you need some 3rd party involved to do it.

The 'old school' way around this form of identity requirement was P2P (person to person) btc for fiat exchanges. Where say Sam in London send Jim $500 via money order in the mail, and Jim sends Sam a matching amount of bitcoin from wallet to wallet once received. But that side of the industry was inherently dangerous (scams) and is effectively dead, the old most successful website for matching buyers and sellers just closed down last month.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/localbit ... ge-service

The Podcast does a decent job explaining what you just said.

Though it’s more traceable on the blockchain side because you can sometimes figure out when one “entity” (either an individual or some other type of entity) may own multiple accounts or coins. The coins appear separate at first glance… but by tracing transactions you can see they are owned by the same entity. This makes it even harder to do dirty deeds.

I’m surprised Hackers ask for Bitcoin when they hack systems for Ransom. Theoretically the FBI could (with appropriate warrants) track the hacks to the culprits. Of course if the hackers live in countries without extradition treaties and/or countries that support the hackers then it’s moot.

I think it depends alot on the hackers and where they are. When it comes to individuals or 'one off' groups it doesn't make much sense, when it comes to large organized groups they probably have mobs ties, or maybe even nation state ties (thinking Russia/NK here) that would happily help/look the other way at the choke point of turning things back into fiat. They come in all shapes and sizes though, Ilya Lichtenstein and Heather Morgan were in the silicon valley and managed to keep a lid on things for a few years but evenetually it was simply tracing where the stolen btc was eventually 'spent' that helped authorities trace things back to them.

There is a now shutdown, but previously very popular laundering service built on Ethereum called 'Torando Cash' (you can't use BTC though). It basically helps you move crypto is a difficult to trace way from one wallet to a new clean wallet (say if one wallet was well know for being stolen/extortion funded). for a fee of about 25%.