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Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-[update 31 dec 2011]

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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby jrh_cardinal on Mon Apr 25, 2011 3:50 pm

qwert wrote:farang, these is possibile in theory,but in reality its quite opposite. So far its finished 61 chalenge(clan league+ regular chalenges+newcomerscup+CCup), and its not hepend any kind of these upset,where clan with 1500 defeat clan with 3000-heck even clan with 1500 not manage to defeat clan with 2000 points.

The fact that upsets are unlikely is not the point at all qwert. If Clan A has 2000 average points and Clan B has 1500, and they both beat Clan C (1500 points), and both lose to Clan D (2500), all in 40 game wars, no upsets happened, and the two clans had the same results, but Clan B would be ranked significantly higher.

The issue here (at least an issue) is that you're using an entirely separate point system to determine clan points in your ranking system. You're using the individual players results on the site as a whole, instead of using the clan results themselves. Yes, they do have some correlation, but it isn't perfect.
You should use the clans points in your system to determine the score changes in your system. Rather than:
Losers members avg. CC score/Winners members avg. CC score
use:
Losing clans points in qwerts ELO ladder/Winning clans points in qwerts ELO ladder
That way at least you're directly comparing the two clans results in comeptitive wars, as opposed to the results of each clans individual members on the whole site.
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby FarangDemon on Mon Apr 25, 2011 10:12 pm

jrh_cardinal wrote:
qwert wrote:farang, these is possibile in theory,but in reality its quite opposite. So far its finished 61 chalenge(clan league+ regular chalenges+newcomerscup+CCup), and its not hepend any kind of these upset,where clan with 1500 defeat clan with 3000-heck even clan with 1500 not manage to defeat clan with 2000 points.

The fact that upsets are unlikely is not the point at all qwert. If Clan A has 2000 average points and Clan B has 1500, and they both beat Clan C (1500 points), and both lose to Clan D (2500), all in 40 game wars, no upsets happened, and the two clans had the same results, but Clan B would be ranked significantly higher.

The issue here (at least an issue) is that you're using an entirely separate point system to determine clan points in your ranking system. You're using the individual players results on the site as a whole, instead of using the clan results themselves. Yes, they do have some correlation, but it isn't perfect.
You should use the clans points in your system to determine the score changes in your system. Rather than:
Losers members avg. CC score/Winners members avg. CC score
use:
Losing clans points in qwerts ELO ladder/Winning clans points in qwerts ELO ladder
That way at least you're directly comparing the two clans results in comeptitive wars, as opposed to the results of each clans individual members on the whole site.


That's exactly it. Very well communicated, jrh_cardinal.

So qwert, the advice to you is to implement the algorithm of 400 - which I've already written a script for so you don't need to do any computations.

Would you be interested in working with me together on this? I wrote the script and published it online specifically so others could use it, based on whatever data they wanted to put into it (realizing that the data will change over time as more results get added).
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby Qwert on Tue Apr 26, 2011 5:38 am

jrh cardinal,its normal that high ranked clan get less points, now you propose that they get same number of points ,if they play with same opponent? Then these will be totaly wrong.
You only look when clan with 1500 win against clan with same point, but then Clan with 2000 point its in same possition when he defeat clan with 2000 points.
Ofcourse these can hepend,if in one year you have 2-3 chalenges, and these what you say its possibile, but if clan A play 10 chalenges against diferent opponents,then he have chance to lost more then half of games, and clan who have over 2000 points, have chance to win almost all chalenges against clans with 1500 points. Like i say,in theory these its possibile to hepend,but in reality, clans like O66,Welsh Dragons, or TNC who are little above these two, they dont have chances against 2000,or 2500 clans.
chalenge examples-higher defeat lower(40 game chalenge)
clan total
Kort[2801] 5 wins 36+29+27+21+18=131

LOW[2488] 4 wins 33+30+24+20=107

BPB [2060] 3 wins 37+29+24=90

G1[1880] 2 wins 32+27=59

1RFG [1503] 1 wins 34

WLSH [1261] 0 wins
------------------------------
now from experience we can oserve,that high ranked clans have long wining series,and low ranked clans have losing series, and these will continue in future. In these example, what its most possibile to hepend,if they play rematch:
Low can win against Kort.
G1 win against BPB
hard probability to hepend:
BPB win against KORT
1RFG win against G1
well i even can say that Welsh dragons will have hard task to defeat 1 RFG.
Any how these ranking get full efect after big number of chalenges, and any high ranked clan(like thota), who play only few chalenges, will be positioned bad,because withouth chalenges,and withouth games,you can not get ranking points.
Farang,i realy think that you need to work in your ranking,because these is best, for now i will arange mine ranking, because i think its work ok.
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby Qwert on Tue Apr 26, 2011 12:54 pm

well no time for waiting, new chalenges moving
activate
cc2:LOW vs LEG
cc2:TSM vs AFOS
GRIM vs TLW
MM vs TLW
--------------------
finished
cc2:TSM vs TNC 33-8
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby jrh_cardinal on Tue Apr 26, 2011 3:23 pm

qwert wrote:jrh cardinal,its normal that high ranked clan get less points, now you propose that they get same number of points ,if they play with same opponent?

At the beginning, yes. Every clan would start with the same number of points, then the clans would spread out as challenges finish just like CC's Scoreboard, Farang's, or jp's old scoreboard. You may not think about it because you never saw Farang's or jp's when all clans had the same points, they started their scoreboards and input in data from previous clan wars before they posted the rankings on CC, but in the beginning all clans were judged evenly. Just like how everyone started on CC with a score of 1000.

Basically, I'm not arguing that the higher ranked clan should get fewer points (they should), I'm arguing your definition of a higher ranked clan. Right now, you are not giving points out based on clan rankings. You are giving them out solely based on the scores of the individual players in the clans. Do the individual players scores correlate to how good the clan is? Yes, absolutely. Is it perfect? Absolutely not.
For example, bruceswar and Emmdizzle were both colonels before they went their separate ways, we'll just say they were the same score (even that's not fair, bruce is better, but whatever). Now Emm has near 4500 points (has been up to 5000+) and bruce has 1600. That has absolutely nothing to do with their clans skill, or even their individual skill, Emm wanted points, bruce didn't care, so each played game types specific to their wants (Emm points, bruce fun). Emmdizzle is in AFOS, bruce is in KORT, I don't think anyone would give AFOS a chance over KORT, but possibly the best player in KORT has 3000 fewer points than (I don't really know, but I assume) one of the better players in AFOS.

If you used the clans results, yes, at the beginning the points would be too close together and the scoring would seem unfair, but eventually it would even out over time as clans reached their equilibrium points. The system could still be manipulated just like the CC Scoreboard, but every Scoreboard run by a formula where teams choose their own opponents can be manipulated (Americans, think College Football, qwert, sorry, I don't have a good international example. World Cup Rankings maybe? I don't follow soccer so I don't know).
If you wanted you could start each clans score at their players average score, the one you're using for now. It would start the clans spread out already, so maybe you would get better results quicker? I don't know.


Right now, I'd say you're measuring best is a clans effectiveness relative to their players individual success, or even how well clans mesh as a team. Clans that get upset (by your points) may have more individual skill but lack in other areas (working as a team, communication, leadership, etc.). Clans that win in upsets may lack at individual success but be better at those other "intangible" areas. What you are not measuring is how good a clan is in relation to other clans.

PS- I need to find a better example. Praising KORT :sick:
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby Qwert on Tue Apr 26, 2011 5:24 pm

Well, lets leave for these year , and will see how will these going.
IF they start with same number,again will be wrong, because Welsh Dragons will give to much points, to high ranked clan, and only benefit will have these clan who will play first. In mine formula ,all 5 most high ranked clans,will get probably same number of points if they play against Welsh Dragons, and these is fair. If i use scoreboard formula, then first clan will get most points,and last clan will get low point,against Welsh Dragons. Also in mine calculation Number of game give more points, biger game chalenge,more points,lover game chalenge, low number of points.
So far ,nobody create perfect formula,who will give 100% correct ranking(well except Blits, who say,that hes ranking its best here),
Just need more results, and also jpcloet announce,release of hes ranking,so we will compare ,to see results.
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby nagerous on Fri Apr 29, 2011 5:32 pm

Keep up the good work!
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby Qwert on Sat Apr 30, 2011 12:15 pm

thanks nag
added to ranking
cc2:GRIM vs LEG 12-29 [42]
CC1Final:THOTA vs KORT 27-33 [58]
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby Qwert on Tue May 03, 2011 5:08 am

added in board
nc:WLDG vs TNC 29-14 [37]
cc2:TLW vs NEM 18-23 [37]
cc2:IA vs RISK 30-11 [30]
cc2:DYN vs G1 15-26 [46]
---------------------------------
new activated chalenges
RISK vs AKA
VDLL vs AKA
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby benga on Tue May 03, 2011 6:23 am

How often do you check for clans average points?
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby Qwert on Tue May 03, 2011 9:59 am

why you ask?
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby FarangDemon on Wed May 04, 2011 8:58 am

qwert, if you're willing to tabulate all results of clan wars in an excel file and post to a URL, I can help you by writing a script that will automatically calculate all your rankings for you (using your formula or whatever you want) at the press of a button.

I'm travelling now so I can't do it now, but in about a month I would have time again.
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby Qwert on Wed May 04, 2011 10:11 am

well im not good in these coding, if you can notice all work im doing totaly manualy.
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby benga on Wed May 04, 2011 10:18 am

because points change from time to time
and you use the same points from the start
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby Qwert on Wed May 04, 2011 10:24 am

im check score- and i must say that diference are so little,that dont have influence on total score. Its need to hepend some big impact(like 10 player with high ranks to leave clan),so that score will be drasticaly change.
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby FarangDemon on Thu May 05, 2011 7:21 am

qwert wrote:well im not good in these coding, if you can notice all work im doing totaly manualy.


If you are willing to compile the clan war results to an excel file I can do the coding for you. Then the only thing you have to do manually is maintain the excel file containing clan war results. I could write a script to calculate all your rankings using your formula - so then you would only have to press a button.
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby Qwert on Thu May 05, 2011 10:11 am

excel file.
I have all results in page 1 second post, why you dont take and write these excel file, its not take you to much time,because i have less then 100 chalenges finished
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby Qwert on Thu May 05, 2011 4:19 pm

well number of chalenges grows.
68 finished
39 active
these mean that every two days ,one chalenge finished. If these going these dynamic we will end year with ove 200 chalenges.
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby Dako on Sun May 08, 2011 12:22 pm

I think we need a database of results for all the wars and some simple form to output data in whichever format you desire.
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby FarangDemon on Thu May 12, 2011 4:32 pm

qwert, sorry to pollute your thread with this topic that is unrelated to your specific ranking system...
But the topic is relevant because having a database of clan war results could help you process your updates easier (especially if you were using a script instead of performing manual calculations).

qwert wrote:excel file.
I have all results in page 1 second post, why you dont take and write these excel file, its not take you to much time,because i have less then 100 chalenges finished


We need dates, which you don´t have. Also want results from old wars and clan league to be in it. I already have results for Clan League but its hard to put a date to when clan league challenges finished. I just guestimated for those end dates in the data I used.

I could put it together but my goal is not to create a ranking for today only. My goal is to create a ranking for any day I want in the future. This requires someone to maintain clan war results in a file or database that anybody can access at any time in the future, as Dako recommends. I don´t have the time now to step forward to commit to do this so I'll have to wait until someone is willing to do this.

Dako wrote:I think we need a database of results for all the wars and some simple form to output data in whichever format you desire.


I'm glad you see the value of this. I think jpcloet will respond with his opinion on this in my algorithm of 400 thread soon.
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby Qwert on Thu May 12, 2011 5:22 pm

i think that jpcloet have these database with date
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-post your result

Postby jpcloet on Thu May 12, 2011 6:42 pm

Yes, the CD's have a file which I need to review.
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-[update 19-5]

Postby Qwert on Thu May 19, 2011 2:10 pm

new update of board,now its FOED leader with 1173 points.
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-[update 19-5]

Postby John Deere on Sat May 28, 2011 8:00 pm

nc:PACK 27 vs SOH 16

PACK 39 BSS 21
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Re: Active Clan ELO ranking 2011-[update 19-5]

Postby Qwert on Sun May 29, 2011 7:38 am

add to board
KOA vs SOH 21-27 [49]

BSS vs PACK 21-39 [58]

cc2:EMP vs DBC 32-9 [24]

nc:PACK vs SOH 27-16 [39]
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