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Dukasaur wrote:saxitoxin wrote:taking medical advice from this creature; a morbidly obese man who is 100% convinced he willed himself into becoming a woman.
Your obsession with mrswdk is really sad.
ConfederateSS wrote:Just because people are idiots... Doesn't make them wrong.
DirtyDishSoap wrote:Im suspicious of the reasoning behind no lynching.
Dukasaur wrote:saxitoxin wrote:taking medical advice from this creature; a morbidly obese man who is 100% convinced he willed himself into becoming a woman.
Your obsession with mrswdk is really sad.
ConfederateSS wrote:Just because people are idiots... Doesn't make them wrong.
aage wrote:***I doubt there will be a lot of reserves here so the deal is as follows. You must post every single game day. If the day ends and you haven't posted, I will modkill you. If someone isn't posting enough to your liking just fckin lynch em.
Pikanchion wrote:1. Every player has an 80% likelihood of being Town, those two aren't special in this.
2. How can it be doing nothing if we're effectively lynching two people?
3. If we were to officially lynch somebody what do we get out of the day but reactions from voting?aage wrote:***I doubt there will be a lot of reserves here so the deal is as follows. You must post every single game day. If the day ends and you haven't posted, I will modkill you. If someone isn't posting enough to your liking just fckin lynch em.
We're probably not going to get replacements and they've had over 96 hours to post something already, let's just get rid of them and end this day.
Dukasaur wrote:saxitoxin wrote:taking medical advice from this creature; a morbidly obese man who is 100% convinced he willed himself into becoming a woman.
Your obsession with mrswdk is really sad.
ConfederateSS wrote:Just because people are idiots... Doesn't make them wrong.
dgz345 wrote:I've just got a hunch that one of the afk people is scum.
But it's just a hunch.
Pikanchion wrote:Our options right now, the minimum number of lynches (not including No Lynches) Town will get to perform (more lynches means more scumhunting), and the chance of Town winning from each:
35.75% — 2 Lynches — Don't wait, No Lynch today, Lynch every further day
35.75% — 3 Lynches — Wait for one player, Lynch somebody today, Lynch every further day
34.67% — 2 Lynches — Don't wait, Lynch somebody today, No Lynch tomorrow, Lynch every further day
29.84% — 3 Lynches — Wait for both players, No Lynch today, Lynch every further day
29.14% — 3 Lynches — Wait for both players, Lynch today, No Lynch tomorrow, Lynch every further day
29.14% — 2 Lynches — Wait for one player, No Lynch today, No Lynch tomorow, Lynch every further day
28.06% — 3 Lynches — Don't wait, Lynch somebody today, Lynch every further day
21.56% — 3 Lynches — Wait for both players, Lynch somebody today, Lynch every further day
If you want to maximise scumhunting the optimal strategy is to get somebody (other than either of the missing players) to L-1 before those last two players post or are replaced and demand that in their first post the joining player throws the hammer, killing both the final missing player and the player chosen by the Town. Town will still get an additional two lynches after this even if we fail to hit Mafia every time. Failing that the option with the most scumhunting is to wait for both players and then No Lynch, but this is significantly worse for our chances than doing as described above, No Lynching right now, or Lynching right now and No Lynching tomorrow.
dgz345 wrote:I'll just put this out. if one of them shows up as scum. their scum buddy is blacky, strike or DDS.
blacky365 wrote:My issue with this math and the stats is that it may work in theory but not in the real world.
When we will be lynching, the scum will be having a say and influence who we lynch.
So if scum are persuasive they could just steer conversation away from themselves and the stats would be 0% town win!
blacky365 wrote:dgz345 wrote:I'll just put this out. if one of them shows up as scum. their scum buddy is blacky, strike or DDS.
By extension, if neither are scum then you are.
dgz345 wrote:
A cat is an animal but an animal is not necessarily a cat.
Pikanchion wrote:blacky365 wrote:My issue with this math and the stats is that it may work in theory but not in the real world.
When we will be lynching, the scum will be having a say and influence who we lynch.
So if scum are persuasive they could just steer conversation away from themselves and the stats would be 0% town win!
If you genuinely held that concern surely you would be all in favour for killing the two afk players, they were self-selected by happenstance not steered towards by the players.
dgz345 wrote:blacky365 wrote:dgz345 wrote:I'll just put this out. if one of them shows up as scum. their scum buddy is blacky, strike or DDS.
By extension, if neither are scum then you are.
Sorry your logic is faulty and very defensive.
A cat is an animal but an animal is not a cat.
dgz345 wrote:just note that the FoS on you raises with the potential that you might be delaying for a scum buddy.
right now if jfm or bernie flips scum. blacky and strike is a little bit higher on the scum list than the rest of us. (just a bit)
dgz345 wrote:I'll just put this out. if one of them shows up as scum. their scum buddy is blacky, strike or DDS.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
blacky365 wrote:dgz345 wrote:blacky365 wrote:dgz345 wrote:I'll just put this out. if one of them shows up as scum. their scum buddy is blacky, strike or DDS.
By extension, if neither are scum then you are.
Sorry your logic is faulty and very defensive.
A cat is an animal but an animal is not a cat.
Lol ure a funny guy... you were the one who started throwing around accusations...dgz345 wrote:just note that the FoS on you raises with the potential that you might be delaying for a scum buddy.
right now if jfm or bernie flips scum. blacky and strike is a little bit higher on the scum list than the rest of us. (just a bit)
blacky365 wrote:If he were scum he would not want to leave it this long and risk being modkilled. I don’t know the other afk but my thought process is the same soI think it’s highly unlikely to be scum.
blacky365 wrote:Also, pika mentioned before about taking a player to L-1... what is the point? There are no power roles here so what do you expect them to say?
Pikanchion wrote:If you want to maximise scumhunting the optimal strategy is to get somebody (other than either of the missing players) to L-1 before those last two players post or are replaced and demand that in their first post the joining player throws the hammer, killing both the final missing player and the player chosen by the Town.
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