Conquer Club

My first post on this forum....so go easy.

I've decided to write and share some statistics with you all on the attacking of singles. That being, you've got 3 or 2 (the attacker) dice going up against only one of your opponents (the defender). Let's face it, the easiest way to supposedly get a card (oops! I meant 'spoils') is to attack a poor little single sitting there, minding his own business.

Normally the single is the result of a failed attack. Don't you just hate hitting a 3 v 3 first play of the game only for the defender to turn in a 5 and 6 and all of sudden you've left an easy card for the next player. Of course singles can show up on the board at any time...a player making a hasty retreat to build a mega stack, knocking down your opponent to a single as you don't want to expose that 28 stack sitting behind it....the list can go on.

Me, like I'm sure most of you have been on the wrong side of attacking a single many times...it's ust downright frustrating. In real life, if 3 guys attacked 1 guy normally the 3 guys would come out on top, albiet with a few cuts and bruises. In the old days, 3 archers would normally take out 1 archer, 3 snipers should over come 1 sniper...you get the drift right.

But what we don't expect is the rouge single. This is the single that has that extra special power to inflict major collateral damage to the attacker and spoil an otherwise strong advance or easy card (oops...I meant 'spoil' again). It's the old adage of never back a wounded dog into a corner...you may just get bitten!

So I've started to track some statistics on just how these rouge singles perform. You see...in my real life I work with numbers. I like numbers...they never lie. You can trust them. They can hurt you and they can make you smile.

My tracking strategy is thus: record the result (dice throw) of every attack I make on a single just to see how the dice fall. I'll report my findings thus far in this post and update as I gather more and more stats. Feel free to tell me how stupid or insane I am for doing such a thing by way of reply, or simply check in from time to time to see if my results equate to roughly the same experiences you are having.

THE STATS (86 attacks surveyed)

Def. Throws -- # Times -- %Result
1 -- 6 -- 7%
2 -- 19 -- 22%
3 -- 18 -- 21%
4 -- 15 -- 17%
5 -- 15 -- 17%
6 -- 13 -- 15%
-----86--100%

So at the moment, the survey suggests that the defender is twice as likely to throw a 6 over a 1....interesting. Stay tuned as I will update every 50 or so surveys gathered

TeenageFC

Fascinating.
Well done

I think you need a lot more numbers in order to draw up a conclusion, though.

Couldn't you get the Dice Analyzer script to keep track of this for you?

How is it you work with numbers and not one mention of probabilities or statistics?

"Normally the single is the result of a failed attack. Don't you just hate hitting a 3 v 3 first play of the game only for the defender to turn in a 5 and 6 and all of sudden you've left an easy card for the next player."

I couldn't take what you said seriously after you made this statement. Any player worth their salt would never ever do this. I was surprised you said this with your win ratio and rank. You make it sound like a common practice on your part.

yes, attacking singles is a good idea. when they are taken the boyfriend/husband/lesbian lover tend to get angry. not recommended.

Iron Butterfly wrote:How is it you work with numbers and not one mention of probabilities or statistics?

"Normally the single is the result of a failed attack. Don't you just hate hitting a 3 v 3 first play of the game only for the defender to turn in a 5 and 6 and all of sudden you've left an easy card for the next player."

I couldn't take what you said seriously after you made this statement. Any player worth their salt would never ever do this. I was surprised you said this with your win ratio and rank. You make it sound like a common practice on your part.

Mr Butterfly,
From what I have seen with most first and second round attacks, there is an element of risk taking involved. Do I make it a common practice to go 3 v 3 in the first round? Usually no, but it depends on how I've landed on the board. If I've a tile thats isolated then sure I'll take the risk from time to time...no harm, no foul. The comment was more for reference to what I've seen in games so that others reading this post had something to relate to...not every reader, but more than a few i can assure you.

Obvioulsy there are many players that are not 'worth their salt' in your eyes. That's what makes the Conquer Club community so diverse. I say embrace it, not rubbish it.

As for probabilities and stats...this is only the first post. Now that I've sparked your interest with my babble, future additions will contain mostly these such things.

Peace & Love

Timminz wrote:Couldn't you get the Dice Analyzer script to keep track of this for you?

Good idea....but pen, paper and excel will do for now. It doesn't take too much time to collate

teenagefc wrote:

Timminz wrote:Couldn't you get the Dice Analyzer script to keep track of this for you?

Good idea....but pen, paper and excel will do for now. It doesn't take too much time to collate

But people have already collected data on tens of thousands of dice rolls, no pen and paper needed! Search for posts on the dice analyzer and you will see what I mean.

teenagefc wrote:

Iron Butterfly wrote:How is it you work with numbers and not one mention of probabilities or statistics?

"Normally the single is the result of a failed attack. Don't you just hate hitting a 3 v 3 first play of the game only for the defender to turn in a 5 and 6 and all of sudden you've left an easy card for the next player."

I couldn't take what you said seriously after you made this statement. Any player worth their salt would never ever do this. I was surprised you said this with your win ratio and rank. You make it sound like a common practice on your part.

Mr Butterfly,
From what I have seen with most first and second round attacks, there is an element of risk taking involved. Do I make it a common practice to go 3 v 3 in the first round? Usually no, but it depends on how I've landed on the board. If I've a tile thats isolated then sure I'll take the risk from time to time...no harm, no foul. The comment was more for reference to what I've seen in games so that others reading this post had something to relate to...not every reader, but more than a few i can assure you.

Obvioulsy there are many players that are not 'worth their salt' in your eyes. That's what makes the Conquer Club community so diverse. I say embrace it, not rubbish it.

As for probabilities and stats...this is only the first post. Now that I've sparked your interest with my babble, future additions will contain mostly these such things.

Peace & Love

Feel free to call me Iron.

Its one thing to be backed into a corner or to be in a do or die situation and to attempt a 3 on 3 and another to do it on a regular basis, which is the way you made it sound. I'm sorry I just don't every see a need to go 3 on 3 for a card in the first or second round. Your 3 is better spent letting attacker waste armies...you think 1 is a badass? can you imagine the combined power of 3 ones together...WOW that would rock.