The Village of Secrets [GAME OVER] Werewolves Win!

[jak111]

You're reading too much into the 90% MP. It's a figure of speech. It's like if I was to say now I am 90% sure this is a bloody wrong lynch. Percentages really do not matter. That's you reading too much into that one thing back on D2 when we had next to nothing.

I believe he wants to know why you were so confident when you appear to have not really had anything.

It was a gut read. Though then slips the question as to why he put faith into it with nothing else and completely sheeped it so much so he now thinks it's scummy because I'm saying it is not to be taken literally.

Funny how when others do something scummy, you and a few decide to ignore it, but if I say something in a matter of figure of speech it's like holy damn guys we need to keep bringing it up after he answers it about 100 times (again, 100 times, figure of speech).

[MudPuppy]

This is a game of mafia, either you're 100% sure or you're not.

That's not at all the way I play. This is a game of mafia... you can't be 100% sure of anything... there are just varying levels of certainty... and 90% is about as high as it gets.

[StorrZerg]

You're reading too much into the 90% MP. It's a figure of speech. It's like if I was to say now I am 90% sure this is a bloody wrong lynch. Percentages really do not matter. That's you reading too much into that one thing back on D2 when we had next to nothing.

Sounds like backtracking to me. Perhaps I'm being too literal but I do not in any way interpret 90% as a mere figure of speech. I work in finance with numbers and percentages and I do take them quite literally. Perhaps you truly didn't mean 90%... but, if that's the case then you most certainly shouldn't have said it.

Again, you read way too much into it. This is a game of mafia, either you're 100% sure or you're not. It all comes down to WIFOM. It comes down to whether people believe Sausage stopped a kill/recruitment, it comes down to whether people believe Anark's VT claim, it all comes down to believing other people.

Right now, I do not believe you. I wont until we see what you or sausage flips.

So Storr? Others didn't hammer Jmac as well, heck, if Jmac is scum why would scum hammer? Now you claim you wanted more discussion, Sausage was nearly lynched until Jmac pulled his vote off to allow him some time to speak, there was no discussion there. It was MP claims cop, everyone sheeps him immediately without questioning the claim its self.

FP's by MP. For all I know there is no cop in the game. I just always assume there to be a cop and a doc at least in each game. It is not mandatory for them to be in it.

I had you pegged for doc in the way you cared if Storr was accidentally lynched D1, with your reaction to Anark I believed no way you could be a VT and you just didn't play scummy for the majority of the game. Though all it takes is this one bad claim and my read on you fell apart. To me, you're scum trying to get the town roleblocker lynched. I would not be surprised if there's 1-2 other scum on that bandwagon.

Others had not been online when the time was at L-1. There is a reason i pushed onto spiesr, when i did. I felt this lynch was going to be going over a bit to easy, with lack of information in the day + with too many people saying nothing about the lynch.


As far as Jmac vs MP its clearly VERY different. We have a cop claim. If the claim proves to be false, it is easily fixed (lynch MP). This is all very logical and makes it very easy to read the situation. The only reason lynching the red check in this situation would be sketchy would be if it was lylo. I seriously doubt we are at anyway close to lylo with 2 scum dead. There is no claim onto jmac which makes him look bad. There is just people pushing and voicing opinions. (well plenty with lack of opinion) How ever, i pushed onto spiesr when the RB claim, because that makes sense. + at the time i was the second person pushing, and i felt it was a case wroth discussing more, i really found it odd that once that happened, there was no one else willing to look at hat situation, instead it took a cop to claim for something to happen.

Now with the Cop claim, its just logical at this point. He claims the person is anti town, this could be a cult, this could be mafia. We will learn a lot from this lynch. It will tell ALOT about people involved within these circles.

FP.

[jak111]

This is a game of mafia, either you're 100% sure or you're not.

That's not at all the way I play. This is a game of mafia... you can't be 100% sure of anything... there are just varying levels of certainty... and 90% is about as high as it gets.

You can be 100% sure of many things, just never about what others claim. You can be sure if you're a tracker player x visited player y. You can be sure if you're a roleblocker player x cannot visit any player. You can be sure if you're a watcher players x and y visited player z. You can be sure if you attempt a kill and it does not hit the right person or does not kill anyone that you are busdroven or roleblocked.

You can be 100% sure of quite a bit. But again, either you know 100% or you do not know. 10%, 50%, 90% is in the not knowing, but feeling.

Also, you do not answer my new question at you, why did you sheep me with NO other reason and felt confident right up until your off timing claim? You were willing to literally kill Jmac based on something I said D2 in which was a gut feeling and figure of speech.

So why should I trust you MP? What have you done besides sheep me for the majority of D2 and today that makes your claim even remotely believable?

FP'd by Storr

You sheep MP's claim who has been sheeping me for D2 and most of D3. Do you not find the timing of his claim odd? In the midst of two people being up for the noose, over the course of a few REAL days and he's posted many times. He could of called Sausage out the second he claimed roleblocker. He did not. He procrastinated until he could make up a story to take him out.

Again, I might even be wrong about this. But I am the only one willing to look at both possibilities. No one else is bothering what so ever.

We might be at LYLO or MYLO. If they're a cult they could have 3-4 players. Tonight they could grow to 4-5 players (which my kill will put them back down to 3-4 hopefully). But we'll go into the next day with 8 players... if they have 4, it's game over, if they have 3 we have to get every single lynch correct after that with no room for error Including my night kills as well.

Because if they are at 3 tomorrow with 8 alive, we lynch one and I kill one but they recruit one, so we go into D5 with 2v4, again, we must get both kills right and then it would be 1v3, again we must get the kill RIGHT.

If we lynch the wrong person either way today we could go right up to the final 4 in LYLO mode.

[StorrZerg]

In all honesty, unless someone counter claims MP in some way to enlighten the anti town check This lynch is going to happen.
It makes the most logical sense. Again the only way it could be "bad" is if its Lylo. Which i seriously doubt.

If he flips town, then imo Jak shoots MP. Solves that problem.

If he flips Mafia, then there are a few people jak can shoot, but probably not anyone that the anti town role blocker blocked...

The cop will have his options of checks as well.

fp

[MudPuppy]

Also, you do not answer my new question at you, why did you sheep me with NO other reason and felt confident right up until your off timing claim? You were willing to literally kill Jmac based on something I said D2 in which was a gut feeling and figure of speech.

I've answered that question multiple times. 1) nobody latched onto my IB scum claim; 2) your jmac claim was along the same lines as my IB claim since they were both suspected of being scum going after a VI Town kill in RD; 3) your 90% scum read, combined with your soft-claimed power role made me believe you had something concrete on jmac that you just weren't ready to share yet.

I believed you at the time... mea culpa.

Why are you still after jmac if you can't offer up a reason other than his scumminess being based on a "gut feeling?"

[jak111]

<- Look at that carefully. Why am I still after him. Right now my vote is on spiesr.

My vote WAS on Jmac for a reason I explained multiple times. His VT claim does not add up with how he reacted to Anark D1. It was on him before that to go for a claim since I believed he was scum. Right now I am not so sure with this new "information" popping up.

Since you keep asking me the same stuff, why was your vote on Jmac today when you already supposedly found a guilty? You kept it on him even for a while AFTER he claimed with not even the slightest hint that you found a "guilty" on a town PR which I would obviously not shoot at during the night if Jmac was lynched.

[StorrZerg]

MP, to be fair, you didn't push LB enough. You made 1 post, and then stopped pushing him. (scratch that 2 posts, but the second was directed at LB) Which doesn't amount to much. If you want to lynch someone, you have to put more effort into it. You made a good effort as to why RD was town. But the effort you put into LB as mafia was far less.

you then switch your vote

"Vote Jonty as I have a scummier read on Jonty and I think his death will provide more info than RD's."

So how much are you going to try and ride the "i called lb scum and voted him"

[MudPuppy]

Since you keep asking me the same stuff, why was your vote on Jmac today when you already supposedly found a guilty? You kept it on him even for a while AFTER he claimed with not even the slightest hint that you found a "guilty" on a town PR which I would obviously not shoot at during the night if Jmac was lynched.

It started off on jmac because he was my #2 scum read and I thought getting a claim would be worthwhile. I kept my vote on him 'til it reached L-1 because there was no reason to unvote him until I was ready to claim and reveal my results. Unvoting him early without reason would just be suspicious. Once he got to L-1, I didn't want to risk the day ending early and used that as a truthful excuse for unvoting him.

If you can imagine I truly am a cop with knowledge that sausage is scum, it doesn't matter that I had my vote on jmac because I knew all along that I'd be changing it to sausage before he could be lynched.

FP'd by Storr

[MudPuppy]

MP, to be fair, you didn't push LB enough. You made 1 post, and then stopped pushing him. (scratch that 2 posts, but the second was directed at LB) Which doesn't amount to much. If you want to lynch someone, you have to put more effort into it. You made a good effort as to why RD was town. But the effort you put into LB as mafia was far less.

you then switch your vote

"Vote Jonty as I have a scummier read on Jonty and I think his death will provide more info than RD's."

So how much are you going to try and ride the "i called lb scum and voted him"

I won't disagree with you that I didn't push IB enough... but I really didn't have much more ammo to push with, either. IB didn't say much one way or the other early on... "semi-scummarining" I called it. It was just the circumstances of IB starting the vote against a VI that seemed scummy to me. Perhaps I could have pushed it more but based on the lack of reaction to my initial claim, I just concluded the support wasn't going to be there.

If I remember correctly, it looked like the D1 vote was between Jonty & RD... I felt very confident RD was town... of course it turned out they both were.

So how much are you going to try and ride the "i called lb scum and voted him"

It is what it is... I suspected him... he turned out to be scum... but I didn't press hard enough to make anything happen... I'm not trying to press it. I corrected jak when he said he was the only one who suspected him and I've used it as an explanation when asked why I got on the jmac wagon. Outside of that I think I only tried to "ride it" once:

i still think mudpuppy could be mafia, he has not brought much to the table in my opinion. but he is cleared by jak with garlic, so was not a vampire (N1)

I have little issue with you thinking I'm scum but I don't appreciate the lack of contribution comment. I was trying my hardest to prevent the RD mislynch. I'm the only vote on IB who flipped scum. I pegged HotShot as town largely because of the reference he made to the town win conditions. I'm also one of the stronger pushes on jmac... so, I don't know where the "has not brought much to the table" viewpoint comes from. The only thing I haven't done is participate in either of the two mislynches.

[StorrZerg]

Its not about "not more ammo" its "hey you PERSON IN THE WHITE SWEATER" any thoughts on LB? what do you think??

[MudPuppy]

Its not about "not more ammo" its "hey you PERSON IN THE WHITE SWEATER" any thoughts on LB? what do you think??

Duly noted... I'll try more of that... hey look, I did:

What does everyone think of jak's reaction to my claim? I'm trying to be objective in my analysis that his read on me has seemingly taken a big swing for what I think is a trivial reason... but it is very possible I'm a bit biased despite my efforts not to be. I've been working off the premise that jak truly is a pro-town 3P... but I'm becoming less and less sure of that.

Though, perhaps that was too general of a request... how 'bout

"hey you KGB" any thoughts on jak flipping his read on me because of my claim? does it feel scummy to you?

but I welcome opinions other than kgb's, too.

How was that, Storr?

[kgb007]

@jak you value the RB role more than cop right? how would you feel about lynching the claimed cop in MP and seeing which way he flips. If he's town, you get Sausage in the night, if he's mafia, you're free to target spiesr or jmac or whoever.

The reverse also works, lynch Sausage see which way things flip.

unvote I'm thoroughly confused

I don't really care to debate jak's scumminess, he's very clearly not town, he has his own win conditions so whether or not he believes your 11th hour claim is irrelevant to his scumminess.

I do find it curious that MP brings this information out now only because Sausage told he beginning on Wed that he'd be out of town through the weekend so in theory, MP could be rushing to lynch Sausage without any defense.

This doesn't really clear anything up but I might as well get it out there. I am town match maker, during N1 I had to choose two players to be joined. If one died, so did the other. I wasn't prepared to use my action but Mod pointed out that I must, so in a rush I chose IB and Hotshot. Early in D2, I realized my error but at that point it was already done.

[kgb007]

I need to re-read D3. My next vote will stay for the duration of D3

[StorrZerg]

exactly like that
(again though was more pointing out directly with LB)


another note, anark word on the situation would be fantastic, he has not given an update since the claim

[spiesr]

I don't really care to debate jak's scumminess, he's very clearly not town, he has his own win conditions so whether or not he believes your 11th hour claim is irrelevant to his scumminess.

But Jak's entire claim hinges on there being a difference between not being town and being scum.

[MudPuppy]

I do find it curious that MP brings this information out now only because Sausage told he beginning on Wed that he'd be out of town through the weekend so in theory, MP could be rushing to lynch Sausage without any defense.

Well, we've got 3 1/2 real life days 'til D3 ends and sausage said he'd try to catch up daily... I saw him viewing the Mafia forum yesterday (before my claim) and he's been on CC at least twice today. My guess is he's seen my claim already and has chosen not to... or possibly can't post a retort... perhaps having fun on vacation... or perhaps taking a nap in his coffin??? Claiming almost 4 1/2 real life days before the game day ends is plenty of time for sausage to respond.

[Whatsausage]

First off, I was on last night, but only had time to read a couple of pages (and take my turns in my games) and I only got to a page or two before MP's claim.
Now for my defense
Oh boy... I don't really know what I can say to prove I am right and MP is lying. It is really down to my word against his. It does seem unlikely that the vampires would be in a lynch and win situation already, but with recruiting you never know. They could be taking a chance where they get the town roleblocker lynched, and then jak either targets the likely remaining mafia member in spiesr or MP and they have some way to protect him. It is also possible that MP is what he says he is, but is some sort of "bad cop" (though he claimed "seeker", I have never actually heard of that haha. Would that be a role that should give him a color, or just whether or not a person has the town win condition?) and his results are backwards? Meaning we are both clean and pcm isn't? (I don't know if superkeener rolls that way or not, I know I would if I host a game haha, but that seems less likely imo) So the more likely case is that he is a member of a possible 4 member cult now. (Start with two and recruit each night) It does seem odd that he waited for jmac to get so close before he decided to claim, but it makes sense that a cult member would try to get rid of a town PR like me. So I find it likely that he and jmac are a couple members of this cult, which likely has 4 members already and could be ahead 5-3 at the end of this night if I am lynched and the potential remaining mafia is killed by jak. So they would easily win if we miss like this. We need to stop this right now, by testing MP's claim. We need to lynch this liar and hope he is the recruiter. so unvote vote MudPuppy. I understand this can look like an OMGUS vote, but how can I not vote for someone I know is lying? and while I cannot be certain that spiesr is a killer, he didn't really do much to defend himself since my claim (although he didn't really face much for pressure) so I remain suspicious of him

And one last thing: ask yourselves: if you were in MP's shoes and an investigative role, would you have investigated me and pcm? When he could have investigated the main target of the town N1 (jonty) or someone he himself is taking credit for finding scummy either N1 or N2? (IB) I don't understand why a pro-town member wouldn't try to clear the town's vig or look into his scum read.

[spiesr]

We need to stop this right now, by testing MP's claim. We need to lynch this liar and hope he is the recruiter.

A problem with that idea. There is no way the Mudpuppy would be the recruiter in that scenario. By claiming the investigation result he created s situation that pretty much guarantees that either you or he will be lynched. A cult would not risk it's recruiter on that gambit if it has other members available.

[Jmac1026]

See, if we lynch mudpuppy and he turns up innocent, then we're shit outta luck because you're then basically confirmed as a mafia roleblock, and you can block Jak and avoid his attempt to kill you.

If, on the other hand, we mislynch and you are in fact town, then Jak can still night kill mudpuppy.

I would like to hear from virus. Haven't heard from 'em since before mudpuppy's big Reveal, and that was just to vote me.

[jak111]

Unvote Spiesr did make a point, whether I wish I was right on him or not, we're at two people, one is scum one is not.

I do find it curious that MP brings this information out now only because Sausage told he beginning on Wed that he'd be out of town through the weekend so in theory, MP could be rushing to lynch Sausage without any defense.

This doesn't really clear anything up but I might as well get it out there. I am town match maker, during N1 I had to choose two players to be joined. If one died, so did the other. I wasn't prepared to use my action but Mod pointed out that I must, so in a rush I chose IB and Hotshot. Early in D2, I realized my error but at that point it was already done.

I didn't even think about that, I forgot Sausage mentioned the vacation. Nice catch.

Vote MP, now the timing makes PERFECT sense, you hoped we'd lynch Sausage BEFORE he came back.

I do value the roleblocker in this case more so than the cop. Besides the fact that I think MP is lying, the RB can act as a doc basically if they choose right and IF the vampires are a cult, he could be stopping them from recruiting.

Now we have this claim, that it's obvious people passed by since NO ONE said anything about it. I dislike that it was with a guy I was 100% on being a VT, but hey, you had to pick N1, unless you were lucky you would of killed a townie anyway or even 2 townies at once, at least that way if HotShot was killed and I didn't get IB, IB would be dead too.

This claim also brings to light that mafia was unsuccessful two nights in a row, so we might have the roleblocker and doc to thank for that. Cop obviously couldn't of stopped the kills.

No, I think we should go for the cop, kgb brought up an excellent point about him waiting for Sausage to be on his vacation, that's a LOW BLOW by all standards. I am surprised no one else (including I) remembered that. I hope pcm and spiesr, two experienced player vets with me can see the timing in MP's claim to coincide when Sausage would be on vacation.

Then he even tried to get us to just lynch him because Sausage was on earlier. I know I log in sometimes just to take turns in my games and then get off, especially if I got stuff to do.

Can't believe I'm siding with the players I've never played with before, but they're doing better than the vets I've known for a long time. But if they can pick out these things that people like spiesr, pcm and I are missing. It might be partially also because they're not tunneling me. Which I mentioned earlier vampires would try to do. They are picking up on the things I'm missing that help further prove my point. MP is fake claiming, there's been no cop cc, so there's two scenarios I believe atm. 1.) Real cop is keeping quiet hoping we successfully kill off the fake cop without outing him. 2.) There is simply no cop in the game. Big shocker, but it happens.

[superkeener]

Official Vote Count 3.5

Anarkistsdream (0):
jak111 (0):
Jmac1026 (2): virus90, Anarkistsdream
kgb007 (0):
pancakemix (0):
MudPuppy (2): Whatsausage, jak111
spiesr (0):
virus90 (0):
Whatsausage (3): MudPuppy, pancakemix, StorrZerg
StorrZerg (0):

No Lynch (0):

Not Voting (3): spiesr, Jmac1026, kgb007

With 10 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch.

Deadline for DAY 3 is: Tuesday, April 29, 2014, 10:00am CC Time.

[jak111]

I'd love to get Anark's thoughts on this as he's the only one I fully trust as far as being town goes.

[MudPuppy]

And one last thing: ask yourselves: if you were in MP's shoes and an investigative role, would you have investigated me and pcm? When he could have investigated the main target of the town N1 (jonty) or someone he himself is taking credit for finding scummy either N1 or N2? (IB) I don't understand why a pro-town member wouldn't try to clear the town's vig or look into his scum read.

In hindsight, it would have been better for me to investigate jonty N1. The main reason I didn't was that I feared he wouldn't make it through the night (perhaps that shouldn't have been as big of a concern as it was to me). The reasons I chose PCM on N1 was 1) I didn't have a good read on him and 2) we would get the benefit of confirming if Lootifer's analysis was from a town or anti-town perspective (kind of a two-fer). The reasons I chose sausage on N2 was 1) again, I didn't have a good read on him and 2) he was my scum partner in Emotions Mafia and I thought he was playing similarly... though, it easily could have been that he plays that way with either faction... but I've never seen him play as town... hence not having a good read.

[MudPuppy]

This doesn't really clear anything up but I might as well get it out there. I am town match maker, during N1 I had to choose two players to be joined. If one died, so did the other. I wasn't prepared to use my action but Mod pointed out that I must, so in a rush I chose IB and Hotshot. Early in D2, I realized my error but at that point it was already done.

I do believe kgb's claim but I find it interesting that HotShot's death was listed as simply him being "killed." The only other game I played where a lover (I assume that's what the matchmaker turned him into) died, it was described as the lover "has killed himself." I guess either way can work but obviously the latter version provides more info.