EW's Semi-Open Matrix Madness

[strike wolf]

@Vot; I've already stated at least twice and PMC just did as well the main difference I've noticed about LC's behavior here and the last couple games where he was anti-town (sk in WBtW and mafia in Role Madness). He has stuck with suggesting his plan here. He didn't innthose other two games. I'll go back further and point out the Tick game where he was town, tried to push a wild plan, and much like he's doing here, defended that plan when he was put under pressure for it.

[Votanic]

@Vot; I've already stated at least twice and PMC just did as well the main difference I've noticed about LC's behavior here and the last couple games where he was anti-town (sk in WBtW and mafia in Role Madness). He has stuck with suggesting his plan here. He didn't innthose other two games. I'll go back further and point out the Tick game where he was town, tried to push a wild plan, and much like he's doing here, defended that plan when he was put under pressure for it.

Si, tres Sonicesque, n'est pas?

...and then you come along, strike. Immediately after another attrocious LC post... making excuses for him... how odd.

That line in LC's post where he says I either secretly like his plan if I'm town... or secretly fear his plan, if I'm scum.... god help me...
No, no,... actually I'm pretty sure I have been not liking his plan as unsecretly as possible.... while being the most clearly town player around.

Yeah, I really don't know... maybe LC is doing this as town... It's possible, and if so, it leaves truly burnt out and exhausted...

Anyway ...enough about LC!

Somehow, 11 of the 14 other players in this game are actually on the same team as me... let's see what is driving them to lynch or not...

• Four want a 'No Lynch'... How nice, except all that it guarantees is that the only death today/tonight will be a towny (probably me...)... I guess they're hoping for some knowledge/intel come the morn... and I hope too, more than anyone that town's PRs, whoever/whatever, can deliver on that, ...but that is a long shot at best. And even if a tracker or motion detector actually gets lucky ans spots some action... that kind of intel can be easy to misinterpret. Hey, maybe we might even have an odd-night doctor who might even stop the night-kill!! Fat chance...

• Three are going for swang, because he is hardly playing anyway. Geez, we even have to do are own mod-kills around here!?

• Three for Devante becuase his few posts seemed off... maybe?

• Two for DDS because his seems more serious this game... or less serious this game. I can't tell.

• DDS is probably voting for Charle because an unassuming middle-of-the-road player is perfect scum cover, especially this game...

I really do feel kinda worn-out abourt all this. Maybe it will look better tomorrow (That is in either the 'RL' or 'Game' sense of 'tomorrow').






Ugh, I'm get so burnt out on this, and it is only Day 1. Maybe

[kongming3]

Just you and I against the world again Vot. I trusted you and we put our minds together to crack the case last game, and I do truly believe we'll be able to do it again. Will come back and analyze everything later now that the lynch train gambit had people coming out of the woodwork and responding in one way or another.

[pmchugh]

It feels like there is a lot of townie infighting and work going on here and my instinct is that mafia are laying low.

People I would be happy to lynch;
Kingm, swang, pixar, traf, DDS, maybe max.

But I will vote any which way I have to with my lynch pact.

[Ragian]

I don't want to vote max. He's playing to his M.O., and while I don't vote with his level of confidence D1...or ever...I think he's right that DDS is off this game. I feel that swang always lays low, so I won't say that that is alignment indicative. I don't know King enough to say anything related to his activity. Pixar is also playing to his M.O., I think. Traf, on the other hand, feels slightly off to me, too. It's his refusal to see anything positive from lynching D1.

Funny how you haven't mentioned Fusi in the above. I think he's going a tiny bit under the radar, too. What does he have? Three posts? I know one of them took up an entire page, but still...

[pmchugh]

Yeah, I did think about fusi. I think he is quite logical and a good player, so I wouldn't necessarily want to lynch him day 1 but he hasn't contributed much so far so I wouldn't object.

[Charle]

Ok, to get us going, the person with the most votes on your list so far is Swang and we will reach our D1 lynch easier going that way. I must be honest, he did not give me any reason as he is not really active. Having said that, it can be because he is scum and try to be below the radar and also if somebody is so active in real life and cannot contribute here, then it will not be such a train smash if we miss lynch a townie. Contribution here is important, good or bad, at least people have something to work on.

Unvote, Vote Swang

What I really do not understand is, knowing that scum talk to each other during the day, why don't DDS prod his own team mates to post something here

[TrafalgarLaw01]

Traf, on the other hand, feels slightly off to me, too. It's his refusal to see anything positive from lynching D1.

Is cause I don't see anything positive on lynching D1.

Like a previus vot post that was really dumb saying oney so 'only 1 kill with happen night 1 probably him or whatever" ofc thats gonna happen - I mean the 1 kill at night, not him as it could be really anybody as I don't see Vot closer to finding anything as anyone else, it's just he feeling superior bs - . Mafia will get a night kill N1, that is gonna happen every single game mafia will kill at night more often than not. I'm not counting on mafia not killing but actually counting on it cause its gonna happen.

So if we lynch D1 we will most likely lynch a town, maybe even without a single mafia voting for it. I find really stupid to start 0-2 down instead of 0-1

and as I said its not the same on D1 than on D2. D2 we will have one dead person so one less chance to miss lynch. We will have some info and I don't mean PR have to out themselves, but they will maybe have more educated guesses, plus we can have more ideas based on the dead person and reactions, etc.

I do belive lynching D1 is more harmful than helpful and i havent heard a solid argument for it. some people say worst it can happen is we out a town role. well that is super bad.

[pmchugh]

Traf, on the other hand, feels slightly off to me, too. It's his refusal to see anything positive from lynching D1.

Is cause I don't see anything positive on lynching D1.

Like a previus vot post that was really dumb saying oney so 'only 1 kill with happen night 1 probably him or whatever" ofc thats gonna happen - I mean the 1 kill at night, not him as it could be really anybody as I don't see Vot closer to finding anything as anyone else, it's just he feeling superior bs - . Mafia will get a night kill N1, that is gonna happen every single game mafia will kill at night more often than not. I'm not counting on mafia not killing but actually counting on it cause its gonna happen.

So if we lynch D1 we will most likely lynch a town, maybe even without a single mafia voting for it. I find really stupid to start 0-2 down instead of 0-1

and as I said its not the same on D1 than on D2. D2 we will have one dead person so one less chance to miss lynch. We will have some info and I don't mean PR have to out themselves, but they will maybe have more educated guesses, plus we can have more ideas based on the dead person and reactions, etc.

I do belive lynching D1 is more harmful than helpful and i havent heard a solid argument for it. some people say worst it can happen is we out a town role. well that is super bad.

The longer you go without lynching the more the player list is controlled by mafia. They can leave the worse players alive and kill people with good arguments. Not to mention that your very own play shows exactly why no lynch day 1 is bad, you say nothing, you do nothing and we learn nothing. If everyone did that, you may as well just start the game with one less town.

[Loose Canon]

Traf, the question on lynch/no lynch D1 in this game I would suggest is looking at the possible Town PRs and the matrix as a whole, how many Mafia are Town likely to catch through use of the PRs?
My estimate is on average 1 or nearly 1 but WITH maxing of what can be deduced from use of the PRs.
(And maxing of what can be deduced from Town PRs might be through accumulation over nights of TownPRs coming to nothing conclusive)
I would find it really difficult to estimate an average number >1.
But make your own guestimates.

For that reasoning I'm Ok with lynching happening, and probably slightly favour lynching D1 over no lynching D1 this game.
(I have switched DURING this game from being marginally No D1 lynch at the start to marginally Pro D1 lynch currently)
If worse comes to worse as a result of mislynching then the game simplifies to 12to11 vs 3 - Town Scummy Feels only.
The task of using the Town PRs is to max out the expected number of Goodlynches via TownPRs.

(I personally doubt being pro or anti lynch D1 will prove to be in any way indicative of Town/Mafia alignment in this game either.)

[Loose Canon]

Arguing against and voting for who you/I/we think is most scummy during day, and using nighttime TownPR s according to a preselected order is what FEELS optimal to me this game.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Ok, to get us going, the person with the most votes on your list so far is Swang and we will reach our D1 lynch easier going that way. I must be honest, he did not give me any reason as he is not really active. Having said that, it can be because he is scum and try to be below the radar and also if somebody is so active in real life and cannot contribute here, then it will not be such a train smash if we miss lynch a townie. Contribution here is important, good or bad, at least people have something to work on.

Unvote, Vote Swang

What I really do not understand is, knowing that scum talk to each other during the day, why don't DDS prod his own team mates to post something here

I've been trying to but they haven't been responding. Fucking rigged game! RIIIIIGGED!

Unvote vote no lynch

[Ragian]

Unvote vote no lynch

And now you're changing to no lynch. What happened to...

I had to go back and read the rules again. I could have sworn No Lynch was impossible but it looks like I'm the goof for that. Deadline ends with a majority vote though am i wrong there?

Oopsies on my end.

I'm committed though. If it generates anything other than LCs math problem, then so be it.

[pmchugh]

Unofficial vote count
Votecount:
No Lynch (5) - kingm, Devante, Pixar, Traf, DDS
Swang (4) - fusi, kongming, PMC, charle
Devante (2) - Strike, Swang
DDS (2) - Max, Ragian
Loose Canon (1) - Votanic
Votanic (1) - Loose

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Lynch pack in green. We have at most 1 vote from non Lynch packers. So we kind of have free reign among swang, dev, DDS, Loose and vot. But if any of them are voting and close to lynch with 6v5, they can switch votes to no lynch and at least make a tie. Since DDS and dev are on the no lynch wagon already I say we pick between them. I like DDS as a candidate, a few people have mentioned him as being different.

So unvote vote DDS

I will of course, switch again if we get people outside the lynch pack changing votes or my packers just stick with one of the other candidates.

[Devante]

I wrote a long ass message then computer crashed, so frustrating. Here we go again...

Anyways, from what I've read so far not too much leaning one way or the other. I'm personally for a lynch but going no lynch but think I need to change that, get more input going. Not getting strong scum vibes of anyone yet. The vot voting loose then loose coming back is useless. Unless that's a scum plan to not draw attention. If anything that back and forth don't sit right. The vote wagon is odd to me but just because we haven't had it in any games so letting that pass, even if scum is there at 5 votes I find it unlikely all the scum are on board and there are two ignorant participants so for now let that pass. Traf leaning scummy but he's not a D1 poster much so who knows. Pixar I always assume is scum but that's just biased. Max was odd but everyone says that's his MO so makes sense I just haven't played with him much. Fusi very quiet, too quiet. But still not enough to go on yet. I will agree that D1 seems like a lot of grasping at straws but no real intel, till maybe later when night actions and comments start coming out and you can reference back. Right now, Swags silence, who I have played with before, is the only thing standing out the most so think we need input from there at this point, so....

UNVOTE NO LYNCH VOTE SWANG

[DirtyDishSoap]

Unvote vote no lynch

And now you're changing to no lynch. What happened to...

I had to go back and read the rules again. I could have sworn No Lynch was impossible but it looks like I'm the goof for that. Deadline ends with a majority vote though am i wrong there?

Oopsies on my end.

I'm committed though. If it generates anything other than LCs math problem, then so be it.

What do you want me from me? A pina colada? I unvoted way earlier on now suddenly it's an issue?

Okay then

[Ragian]

I'd prefer an old fashioned, thanks.

I want answers, damnit! Why did you depart from your usual no lynch D1 tactics? Why do you change back when called into question? Who do you think is scummy? Is your list from earlier updated?

[Charle]

Unofficial vote count
Votecount:
No Lynch (5) - kingm, Devante, Pixar, Traf, DDS
Swang (4) - fusi, kongming, PMC, charle
Devante (2) - Strike, Swang
DDS (2) - Max, Ragian
Loose Canon (1) - Votanic
Votanic (1) - Loose

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Lynch pack in green. We have at most 1 vote from non Lynch packers. So we kind of have free reign among swang, dev, DDS, Loose and vot. But if any of them are voting and close to lynch with 6v5, they can switch votes to no lynch and at least make a tie. Since DDS and dev are on the no lynch wagon already I say we pick between them. I like DDS as a candidate, a few people have mentioned him as being different.

So unvote vote DDS

I will of course, switch again if we get people outside the lynch pack changing votes or my packers just stick with one of the other candidates.

DDS is at least very active here, we can leave him for last. Maybe he is going to make a few more mistakes and give us more clues

Dev from the no-lynch pack joined the Swang pack, so let's stay with that and get this day over. Traf just have to live with this

[DirtyDishSoap]

Best i can do is sex on the beach.

I mentioned it earlier! Mistakes on my reading comprehension!

No, as mentioned earlier, my list isn't updated. I still think PMC is the Scumster for earlier reasons. Swang is near absent other than that one chime in and vote, which i guess you can say is scummy but that's hardly anything to go by, everyone is usual MO. Either not here, contributing the bare minimum, outlandish plans, and Vots "I took that personally" mentality.

Theres almost nothing to go by. So there! Take that to the bank and sniff it!

[Votanic]

Best i can do is sex on the beach.

I mentioned it earlier! Mistakes on my reading comprehension!

No, as mentioned earlier, my list isn't updated. I still think PMC is the Scumster for earlier reasons. Swang is near absent other than that one chime in and vote, which i guess you can say is scummy but that's hardly anything to go by, everyone is usual MO. Either not here, contributing the bare minimum, outlandish plans, and Vots "I took that personally" mentality.

Theres almost nothing to go by. So there! Take that to the bank and sniff it!

I suppose that's my cue to go "Hey, I take that personally!!!"...
...but no, no I'm fine. I can take a joke.

However, do remember

Theres almost nothing to go by.

was my line first.

I'm not totally delusional, I recognize my 'LC is scum-like' campaign' is going nowhere...
Gosh, I hope you're all right, and he's just doing a Sonic 2.0 (I can' believe I said that...)

So as you probably can tell, I'm gearing up for a vote change....
I would vote 'No Lynch'... but only if I really thought Day 2 was going to be significantly different regarding 'intel'... but I can't imagine it will be.
This game really is set up to give the illusion of Town PRs, but with very little actual 'real' power.
Town is playing a game with 'random' being the best odds we can hope for.[/i]

(sick) IDEA: Just for some queasy fun, I'm going to roll a D20 and pick the lynchee! I'm using the numbers off the play list, 16 to 20, I re-roll...

Swear to God! I rolled swang. NOT BULLSHITTING YOU.

That makes it sightly awkward, because I was about to say, of course it was just a joke.. and then really just change my vote to swang...
But now I guess I'll just have to listen to pure 'randomness' after all. That is some weird poetry going on here.

Unvote. Vote Swang.

[Charle]

Well, looks like we are going to need your dice for the rest of the game!

Now we just need pmc, Ragian and LC to end this day and then we have a 3 day rest

[Ragian]

I'm not lynching till swang has the opportunity to defend himself and give his list of who's who in here. The point of putting the noose around his neck is to force him to participate.

@EW, could we have him prodded?

[Extreme Ways]

Official vote count
Votecount:
Swang (5) - fusi, kongming, charle, devante, votanic
No Lynch (4) - kingm, , Pixar, Traf, DDS
DDS (3) - Max, Ragian, pmc
Devante (2) - Strike, Swang
Loose Canon (1) - Votanic
Votanic (1) - Loose

With 15 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

if this is wrong I blame the unofficial one I based it off.

Will prod swang.

[Ragian]

Apart from the fact that vot seems to be a double voter, I think you're fine.