The Wild Beyond the Walls Mafia Spirits Wins!

[Charle]

All I can say is I am vanilla town.

Very good summary from Fusi, and well worked out. The only person that would understand completely this setup should be scum and therefore I would just change my role with Fusi in his summary. This seems very scummy to me.

If we lynch another town today, then town will be in trouble tomorrow, it is going to be very difficult. I think Fusi starting a bandwagon this early on town is just more proof that scum wants to get this town lynch done asap.

I must say Fusi, will all respect, you are playing this game brilliant.

[Devante]

Just caught up on things had a bit of a crazy go over the last day. To summarize I think we have:

PMC leaning to put Swang on stand
Swang looking to put PMC
Fusi putting charle on there and voting for him
Charle puting fusi on there

Do I got that right?

If I do, at this point I would like to hear from the rest of those alive still and fairly quiet so far.

Ewe time to talk. And to a lesser extent King who has been more active.

Remaining players if I have it right are:

Swang
Fusi
PMC
Devante
Charle
Ewebasher
Kingm

[swang918]

I will post my solve. I'm not super confident in it.

First, today is likely ELo, not tomorrow. I still think sonic has a vote, and with likely two scum left, we are lost if we mislynch today.

Next, there is at least one scum between Fusi and Charle. Fusi voted Charle today, and if they're both town, then with two scum and sonic's vote, the 3 scum could have jumped on Charle and quick hammered Charle. It's more than 24 IRL hrs since Fusi voted Charle, and Charle is still alive. So either Fusi or Charle are scum (possibly both, but unlikely since I doubt scum would vote scum at this stage, and I especially don't think a scum fusi would vote a scum.)

as to what happened so far, my solve is similar to fusi's except for my reading of the 'no result' investigations.

N1 the scum deflector/bus driver deflected votanic onto sonic. So all actions on votanic went to sonic instead, who made the kill on loose. So when king tracked vot, he got the result for sonic, and saw vot visiting loose, when it was sonic that visited loose. And when ewe investigated vot, ewe got the result for sonic, so vot appeared as scum to ewe. Me and fusi are in agreement on this. btw this also explains why loose poisoned sonic--Loose was probably targeting votanic, but got his poison action deflected to sonic instead. This makes sense as loose had posted he thought vot was strong as both town or scum, so as 3p it made sense for loose to target vot.

N2, scum had some kind of role stopper power, which would make the target immune from investigations (vs a role blocker, which keeps the target from performing investigations). They used the rolestopper on sonic, which explains why both king and ewe got no result from visiting sonic. Also possible is like an ascetic scum, and they deflected sonic onto the other scum. either way, they made it so investigations on sonic return no result.

N3 could have gone any number of ways, and I don't have a solid theory on what the results mean. Pmc showed as scum to ewe but pmc is also a somewhat obvious deflection target since he was posting more analysis earlier, so ewe's investigation result has to be discounted. Fusi was a no result for king, which means a role stop was used on fusi. Would our scum use a role stop on a town? Possibly, but in this game they've shown a willingness to use it on fellow scum (sonic), and fusi is not such an obvious investigation target. So I think the no result on fusi is slightly more incriminating than the scum result on pmc.

next post I will lay out the case against pmc

[swang918]

So the above was my theory on D1 through N3. Now we are in D4. the main thing to start us off today is Fusi's solve post. However, the problem with fusi's solve is that he confuses the 'no result' investigation results from king and ewe with 'innocent' or 'stayed home' results. And the rest of his theory flows from that misconception and so is built on faulty ground. Fusi appears to think that 'no result' on himself from King's N3 tracking means that he showed up as having stayed home, when in fact no result means king got no result--king got no answer as to whether fusi stayed home or visited someone, king didn't get the answer that fusi stayed home. And so on for sonic. So these are very different things.

Would a town fusi honestly make this mistake? possibly--I looked through fusi's games, and they have not involved a roleblocker or rolestopper. except for the Tick, where he got killed early. So he may honestly not have known.

in any case, you know who for sure knows the difference between a 'no result' and an innocent result? Pmc!! In fact I was not the first to correct fusi--pmc was. earlier he posted that

No result is definitely roleblock speak: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=No_result

in response to fusi floating the possibility that king's no result means the same as taking no night action. So pmc definitely knows what 'no result' means.

however--he then kind of attacks me for pointing out that he is not cleared:

re pmc, I agree that votanic's defensiveness is weird after two joke votes. But I've played 2 games w vot and have not seen him get pressured much at all, so maybe this is just how he deals with heat. but its something to keep an eye on and consider for sure.
re voting charle, this is just how charle plays, I don't see anything scummy there either.

so from me, no real reads yet. I'm in favor of another randwagon. Vote DDS for going back to his no lynch d1 thing.

This is sticking out to me, I voted charle and swang jumps to the defence. Fusi puts a well thought out explanation together pointing to charle and swang jumps to attack me.

Poison doctor sounds a reasonable claim, but an easy one to make when you go last and there is zero provable actions that come from it when posioner died so early.

this is most suspicious to me:
1. Based on his balanced posting so far, I believe pmc would not actually believe that I was attacking him, when I merely pointed out that he wasn't yet cleared.
but more importantly:

2. pmc definitely knows that 'no result' does not mean 'no night action' or 'innocent', yet describes fusi's theory as a well thought explanation despite it falling apart by N2.

I think pmc is scum.

and then there's one scum between fusi and charle.

Vote pmc

[swang918]

unvote pmc as I am going to bed and don't want to allow a scum quickwagon in case I'm wrong.

[Charle]

I have family matters to attend to today, please do not hammer anybody before tomorrow this time, I have also another summary of what I think could have happened.

[pmchugh]

So the above was my theory on D1 through N3. Now we are in D4. the main thing to start us off today is Fusi's solve post. However, the problem with fusi's solve is that he confuses the 'no result' investigation results from king and ewe with 'innocent' or 'stayed home' results. And the rest of his theory flows from that misconception and so is built on faulty ground. Fusi appears to think that 'no result' on himself from King's N3 tracking means that he showed up as having stayed home, when in fact no result means king got no result--king got no answer as to whether fusi stayed home or visited someone, king didn't get the answer that fusi stayed home. And so on for sonic. So these are very different things.

Would a town fusi honestly make this mistake? possibly--I looked through fusi's games, and they have not involved a roleblocker or rolestopper. except for the Tick, where he got killed early. So he may honestly not have known.

in any case, you know who for sure knows the difference between a 'no result' and an innocent result? Pmc!! In fact I was not the first to correct fusi--pmc was. earlier he posted that

No result is definitely roleblock speak: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=No_result

in response to fusi floating the possibility that king's no result means the same as taking no night action. So pmc definitely knows what 'no result' means.

however--he then kind of attacks me for pointing out that he is not cleared:

re pmc, I agree that votanic's defensiveness is weird after two joke votes. But I've played 2 games w vot and have not seen him get pressured much at all, so maybe this is just how he deals with heat. but its something to keep an eye on and consider for sure.
re voting charle, this is just how charle plays, I don't see anything scummy there either.

so from me, no real reads yet. I'm in favor of another randwagon. Vote DDS for going back to his no lynch d1 thing.

This is sticking out to me, I voted charle and swang jumps to the defence. Fusi puts a well thought out explanation together pointing to charle and swang jumps to attack me.

Poison doctor sounds a reasonable claim, but an easy one to make when you go last and there is zero provable actions that come from it when posioner died so early.

this is most suspicious to me:
1. Based on his balanced posting so far, I believe pmc would not actually believe that I was attacking him, when I merely pointed out that he wasn't yet cleared.
but more importantly:

2. pmc definitely knows that 'no result' does not mean 'no night action' or 'innocent', yet describes fusi's theory as a well thought explanation despite it falling apart by N2.

I think pmc is scum.

and then there's one scum between fusi and charle.

Vote pmc

Let me be clear, I don't think that I am cleared. I just thought fusi posted an interesting analysis that is probably pretty spot on in terms of who is who except you, and what actions they took. I dont think the reolblocker part invalidates everything else he said, and I think Charle is highly suspect at this point and you jumped in to rubbish the post and push the pressure to me immediately.

This being the second time you jumped to Charles defence stood out, and you seem to fit the bill perfectly once I considered you which I hadn't really done before.

Post incoming on my case against swang.

[pmchugh]

I really do believe swang is scum and have been subtly controlling the game to this point.

My day by day blow of swangs suspicious behaviour:
Day 1 you state that wagons and applying pressure are good, you have the knowledge of town startegy, but actually only defend people other than one vote for DDS, which you explicitly stated was random to soften the blow. You acted against your own stated best plan for the day.

I think its fine to end up with a no lynch but we should at least get some wagons going and some pressure applied and get some vote history to look back on for later days. And with random odds the chances of hitting scum is higher than hitting cop.

Above post advocates for wagons.

re pmc, I agree that votanic's defensiveness is weird after two joke votes. But I've played 2 games w vot and have not seen him get pressured much at all, so maybe this is just how he deals with heat. but its something to keep an eye on and consider for sure.
re voting charle, this is just how charle plays, I don't see anything scummy there either.

so from me, no real reads yet. I'm in favor of another randwagon. Vote DDS for going back to his no lynch d1 thing.

Defends vot to get on side and charle, shifts to a reasonless DDS vote that he knows will do nothing.

Loose, why Pixar?

I was thinking about pressuring the inactives but in this case they are fusi and kingm, and i don’t really want to actually lynch either of them today because fusi has gotten bounced early for every game recently, and kingm is new. So any presssure on them from me would be pretty toothless

Swang trying to explain away his lack of acting in towns best interest while defending even more people. He was trying to be everyone's friend day 1 so that no one would suspect him, and it worked.

Day 2 not much to say as it went pretty quickly and obviously, your frame of him being completed the night before.

Day 3 you start the wagon on pixar that gets him killed.

I say pixar. A couple people wanted to take vot’s lynch slower, pix came in with the hammer and ended the day.

Vote Pixar

And now Day 4 you are trying to push me to deflect from Charle and take out someone who might actually work out its you.

Even if charle is town, which is certainly possible (although seems unlikely given kingm, Ewe claims and my town reads of fusi and dev) your defence of him could be an attempt to influence a newer player and to look like the good guy considering he is a high likelihood lynch target with VT claim and his name being thrown about.

In summary, swang controlled the game, kept day 1 uninteresting, day 2 executed the frame on vot, day 3 killed pix with his scum buddy jumping on his wagon and day 4 is now trying to convince you to go for me, putting town very close to losing when I flip town to protect his buddy charle.

Vote swang

[strike wolf]

Vote Count

Swang (1)-PMChugh
Fusi
PMC
Devante
Charle (1)-Fusi
Ewebasher
Kingm

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

[Charle]

Ok, I have a few minutes.

The chances are very good that I will probably be lynched or Killed tonight by scum or maybe not if we play this clever. I was against this mass claiming from the start as scum just have false claims anyway and we reveal our stronger roles.

I am William Freeman, the village doctor. Each night I can protect a player who will become immune to a kill performed by normal means. I cannot protect myself.

I was hoping not to reveal this role for obvious reasons, so I will use it tonight on somebody and hopefully it will still work before I am killed by scum (if I am not lynched obviously).

N1 I protected Traf, as I really saw him as town and liked his posts.
N2 and N3 I protected Kingm, hoping we could use some of his tracking info.

So now, the two people standing out for me to be our scum members are fusi and Swang.

Devante, to answer your question you asked a few times, my suggestion is as follows:
1. Use compass on Kingm (we will know for sure that his tracking cannot be blocked) so we get a result D5. If scum can kill Kingm, then we have Ewe's result on D5.
2. Roleblock fusi or Swang (I suggest we lynch one of them today and the other will not be able to kill one of us N4). On D5 we just lynch the other one and game over.
3. I will also protect someone (not saying who now) just in case they can still pull of a kill for some reason.

The nonsense from fusi that you will get "no result" because he did not do anything is very far fetched. It was clearly because Kingm was roleblocked and fusi knew that all along.

So this is my few cents and I will go with what TOWN decides.

[Devante]

Not sure if this changes anything but my final item is a medicine that prevents all types of kills. Not sure if this would be in addition to a doctor or part of that role. With no one claiming doctor I expected it was that and kept it quiet as earlier posts stated doctor should not reveal himself. But the medicine is also a onetime use. Since this is probably the last day of figuring things out laying out all the cards. And I'll be using all the items tonight as this might be Towns last chance to get this right

[SoN!c]

[pmchugh]

Yeah I am not buying that strike put in 2 doctors a bulletproof role and a stop all night kills ability. Pretty happy with my solve right now.

[Kingm]

I have read all the different solutions, and everyone is belivable, so I want to say that I feel the scum has played it good, but I think pmc is onto something here.

Vote swang

[swang918]

Re devante--before you give anything away, consider that there is a deflector still. so if they target your target they might be able to deflect the action to themselves. Not that big a deal with medicine, but something to consider with your roleblocker and compass.

[swang918]

The nonsense from fusi that you will get "no result" because he did not do anything is very far fetched. It was clearly because Kingm was roleblocked and fusi knew that all along.

Charle--it's not necessarily that Kingm was roleblocked, it's more likely that fusi got role stopped. Either way, you're right that fusi's idea that getting 'no result' = did not do anything is very farfetched. Yet pmc is buying into it wholesale and not challenging it at all. This is the most scummy thing to me

although, your lying about being vanilla town is not a good look either. if you're actually doctor, you obviously need to protect ewebasher tonight. don't need to worry about getting deflected, since we have no vigilante and town can't night kill anyway.

[fusibaseball]

I have no idea why Charle and Swang think my conclusion that King getting no result on tracking me = staying home is far-fetched.

I'm Vanilla Town. I stayed home. Am I missing something here? If you track a Vanilla Town, they take no actions at night, you should get no result. End of story.

My preferred vote is definitely Charle, so I'd most like to see him out today. The other scum is most likely swang based on how conversation has flowed. If we can't get the 4th vote to lynch today and I have to be the one to do it, I'll switch my vote, but my preference is Charle because I think he's the bus driver.

And just for clarity purposes, I don't think there's any role blocker or deflector or any of that other nonsense in play anymore. It's just a bus driver. All of the weird results can be derived from that one role if you read my last long post.

[swang918]

no fusi, if you track a vanilla town, and they didn't go anywhere, the result should be that they didn't go anywhere. not no result.

[Kingm]

I have no idea why Charle and Swang think my conclusion that King getting no result on tracking me = staying home is far-fetched.

I'm Vanilla Town. I stayed home. Am I missing something here? If you track a Vanilla Town, they take no actions at night, you should get no result. End of story.

My preferred vote is definitely Charle, so I'd most like to see him out today. The other scum is most likely swang based on how conversation has flowed. If we can't get the 4th vote to lynch today and I have to be the one to do it, I'll switch my vote, but my preference is Charle because I think he's the bus driver.

And just for clarity purposes, I don't think there's any role blocker or deflector or any of that other nonsense in play anymore. It's just a bus driver. All of the weird results can be derived from that one role if you read my last long post.

Yeah, I'm also feeling Charle and Swang as the two scum, and I will switch since you think Charle is the bus driver.

unvote Swang

Vote Charle

[swang918]

Re devante--before you give anything away, consider that there is a deflector still. so if they target your target they might be able to deflect the action to themselves. Not that big a deal with medicine, but something to consider with your roleblocker and compass.

actually nevermind on this, it's simpler than I was thinking. Devante just give your medicine to ewe--scum will then have to use deflection on ewe to kill him, and the medicine won't do them any good if it gets deflected onto a scum. give one of your other items to king since he is as good as cleared. Give your last item to me (or keep it yourself if youre not sure about me.) Don't give anything to fusi/charle/pmc as I think there's two scum between them.

[pmchugh]

I have no idea why Charle and Swang think my conclusion that King getting no result on tracking me = staying home is far-fetched.

They probably know its wrong lol. It's not 100 percent impossible strike said, "no result" when there was no roleblock but it would be very unusual and bad for a mod to use that language when they just did nothing. No result is the specific wording meant to say, your action failed and you learned nothing, as opposed to the person not going anywhere. I linked earlier in the thread a wiki page explaining this exact thing and it even uses tracking someone who went nowhere as a specific example.

From that link:

No result" is what investigative roles receive for their action if they are roleblocked or similar. While in the majority of cases players are not informed that they have been blocked, if the player is expecting a result, it is terrible form to simply not tell the player anything (they may assume the mod missed their action or forgot to give their result). Therefore it is necessary to tell the player they obtained no results from their investigation.

It should generally not be possible to obtain a "no result" when not blocked; if a role learns that nothing happened, that's not a "no result", it's a result of "nothing happened". For example, a Tracker should be told that his target did not visit anyone

https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=No_result

[pmchugh]

I would prefer swang over charle for a few reasons:

1. I think doctor is more likely that poison doctor, why would town have a tool against a third party serial killer with a delayed night kill? Strike would have to hate LC to stack the game against him that much.
2. I think swang is more dangerous, and could sway people to change their minds in a day or two
3. I am just more confident on swang, if it's charle but not swang, I would doubt it could be fusi, which would mean I would need to start looking at dev who I town read most. I don't think it can be one mafia as they must have a roleblocker and a busdriver

[Charle]

Ok, I have made up my mind. Scum is definitely Swang and fusi, and fusi is the bus driver. Everything works out as fusi outlayed it for us, but he is the bus driver. I know exactly who to save tonight.

Vote Swang

[swang918]

Wait a minute. I've been making this needlessly complicated. Here is a simple solve:

On N3, King got no result on fusi, and Ewe got a guilty result on pmc.

So the tracking of fusi was manipulated by scum--roleblocked or rolestopped. and, either pmc was scum or his result was also manipulated (deflector or bus driver).

But--also on N3, scum killed DDS.

Scum generally cannot perform a night kill and also use their role power.

So we know their rolestopper/roleblocker was used on fusi. And a kill was performed on DDS. This means the deflector/bus driver power was not used on N3.

Therefore Ewe's guilty result on pmc was not manipulated. It is a true result.

vote pmc

[pmchugh]

Wait a minute. I've been making this needlessly complicated. Here is a simple solve:

On N3, King got no result on fusi, and Ewe got a guilty result on pmc.

So the tracking of fusi was manipulated by scum--roleblocked or rolestopped. and, either pmc was scum or his result was also manipulated (deflector or bus driver).

But--also on N3, scum killed DDS.

Scum generally cannot perform a night kill and also use their role power.

So we know their rolestopper/roleblocker was used on fusi. And a kill was performed on DDS. This means the deflector/bus driver power was not used on N3.

Therefore Ewe's guilty result on pmc was not manipulated. It is a true result.

vote pmc

What? Not sure if this is OMGUS or desperation but it's clear scum have been using powers and kills every night, I have never in hundreds of games heard of scum not being able to use a power when they kill.