Debriefing of Game 10476657 (With Photos)

[Kiwi_NZ]

Yellow here

2012-02-06 01:05:35 - Kiwi_NZ received 3 troops for 5 regions
2012-02-06 01:05:52 - Kiwi_NZ played a set of Reykjavik, Cairo, and Istanbul worth 12 troops
2012-02-06 01:05:52 - Kiwi_NZ got bonus of 2 troops added to Istanbul
2012-02-06 01:06:26 - Kiwi_NZ deployed 6 troops on Beijing
2012-02-06 01:06:34 - Kiwi_NZ deployed 6 troops on Montreal
2012-02-06 01:06:38 - Kiwi_NZ deployed 3 troops on Istanbul
2012-02-06 01:07:18 - Kiwi_NZ assaulted Magadan from Beijing and conquered it from bman8397
2012-02-06 01:07:28 - Kiwi_NZ ended the turn and got spoils


Not sure,but anyway,I still held Montreal before they played,as can be seen,I deploy troops here

Cant recall,but didnt really have focus (missing the weak player)still in tunnel vision mode,I continue to deploy troops evenly,
btw I finally played at set,most likely the forced 5 cards,worth 12 troops

looking at round 7:
I'm more or less a sitting duck,with 2 cards and await my demise

[Viceroy63]

Yellow here

Not sure,but anyway,I still held Montreal before they played,as can be seen,I deploy troops here

Cant recall,but didnt really have focus (missing the weak player)still in tunnel vision mode,I continue to deploy troops evenly,
btw I finally played at set,most likely the forced 5 cards,worth 12 troops

looking at round 7:
I'm more or less a sitting duck,with 2 cards and await my demise

Yeah; The game sure would have taken a very different course if you had taken Blue out in round 06. Maybe just trying and failing would at least make one feel better then never having tried at all. IDK.

I am beginning to think that there comes a point when we are weak and have an opportunity to win or lose but it's always a risk. We then only get one shot at it and when we miss it, it's gone and very rarely do we get another chance.

I believe that a big secret to winning these games is to recognize our shot when it is upon us and to take that risk and just win or lose. But at least we take our shot and played.

But we also have to recognize when we are being premature. That is a problem of the human ego. We want something so bad that we can't let go of it. Like that other SoC game that we are in that is just about over. If you remember which game I'm talking about, it's only round 08 and only You and the other player are left.

You know the game that I am talking about, where Pink just handed Green's spoils over to Cyan (with a premature and failed elimination assault) and then Cyan picks up the ball and runs with it to gain three eliminations there. The funny part is where Pink blames the dice for his failure in the game chat. He said...

"2012-02-26 01:16:54, shit dice"

That game is going to be my next debriefing, I swear! I have to debrief that game. If it were not for that Premature and failed assault attempt on Green by Pink, then that game would have been a lot more difficult to win. I think it would have lasted like 15 rounds or so. Man! Everyone was playing so well until Pink prematurely shot off his load.

My point being that we must learn to recognize when it is our time to take our shot and either win or lose and when we are being premature with wishful thinking as Pink was in that game. There is no way that you can figure that the time to strike was then because Green had like 32 troops and the spoils trade was only 10 troops at the time.

So that means that Pink would have lost some 30 troops for those four Green spoils and even if he had a double sets, 12 and 15 is 27 so he gains what? A -3 troops for his troubles? After you count the troops lost in that assault that is. Too much work for too little spoils so it was definitely not the right time. He would have been left off weaker and not stronger for his efforts.

Also the next player would get 20 troops and regardless start eliminating everyone else. No; That was not the time to start making trouble. Pink should have just traded in his spoils like everyone else and wait for his time to take his shot had come to do so. Patience is also another key to this game.

BTW: My condolences. =) If Cyan has a set of spoils then your toast. On the other hand if he does not and you do then He is toast. But again if you don't either, then he will on the next round with 5 spoils. So it's two toast you to one toast him. That's a lot of toast and no Coffee or Jam.

It will be very interesting to see who wins that game. But it definitely ends in round 09 as you both have 4 spoils each. It's a race to see who gets the spoils first and he's next.

So know your enemy, know yourself and know when it is your time to take that risk and attack, and not just premature, wishful assaulting.

[dhallmeyer]

I wasn't saying that you should never go for a kill in the early rounds, because there are some players who just NEED killing. But you have to be tactful about it, and not suicide yourself for a small reward. Hangings are a great thing, but you have to be careful about how hard you work to clean up after one that will not start a sweep. That's the key question: Will eliminating this player leave me in a better or worse position?

So then Maybe it is better to take the risk and get eliminated and then perhaps by chance you may gain something more then just a few points because you never really know how the game can turn out?

When you take out a color, any color, of say 20 troops then you can expect to lose approximately 20 troops in the process. So if the spoils trade is not at least 20 troops then you are just weakening yourself. Would you say that is an accurate statement?

That is what replacement value means. Sometimes making a kill is justified by other methods, (resetting the card sequence, getting a weakling off the board, scoring SOMETHING before getting offed yourself) but those don't come along all that often. In general, when there is parity among the players' strengths, you won't start hunting until the cash value gets close to the number of troops your target holds (and the cards line up for a recash).

[dhallmeyer]

Shameless plug: Absolutely. It's a long-term kind of trend thing. Each game breaks down so individually that it's hard to characterize, but the more games you play, the more the style shows its benefit.

Was this for me?

What "plug?"

It means I'm advertising. Of course I should say that and I probably don't need to, but I'm gonna anyway.

[Fewnix]

red Fewnix here
To continue this fascinating and many-layered discussion, please note that I had gone for an easy kill that, might lesve me weak and ripe for elimination but did give me 21 points and would leave me with 4 spoils,possibly a set.

2012-02-06 00:11:02 - Fewnix eliminated ronshippau from the game
2012-02-06 00:11:02 - ronshippau lost 21 points
2012-02-06 00:11:02 - Fewnix gained 21 points

So even if I was eliminated from the game I would probably at least break even, if I got eliminated by a player with a rank roughly equivalent to mine or even a few hundred points lower. On the other hand, if those spoils I had picked up from the elimination gave me a set, (a reasonable hope given that I would end the turn holding 4 spoils) I could my next turn cash that set, survive for another round or two, eliminate another player and come out of this game ahead on points IF I could cash a set.

Re: Basic Terminator 10476657 -student Fewnix
by Fewnix on Mon Feb 06, 2012 12:23 am

eliminated green, got my points but no set, with 4 spoils I must look tasty G:>

.

Your Plans: Deploy 5 on Dubai A1 , take Moscow E6 advance all but 2 .Faint hope of survival this round and faint hope of making more gain (have eliminated one player and got the points) but I cling to that hope. Then, If I am to die, I want to die honorably.

Note: I don;t have a set and cyan claims he does: "Viceroy63: Fewnix; If you don't have the spoils, I do. Lol"
With a set cyan can certainly eliminate me, without a set he is capable of eliminating me,but I have some faint hope of survival and victory..

After me comes pink, currently the .strongest player on the board with a 12 deploy and 3 spoils that may give him a set worth 20. It would be hard for pink to eliminate me g,iven the Cyan block of 15 troops in Bangkok, A7 . Pink may eliminate yellow and grab his 3 spoils. If yellow is not eliminated he may be able to cash a set, but unlikely to be able to eliminate pink or cyan and with the cyan block in Bangkok unlikely to be able to eliminate me. Then comes cyan who with a set worth 20 or more can certainly eliminate me- he has 28 troop adjacent to my string of terts with currently 20 troops. My only faint hope is that he does not really have set and fails to eliminate me.

[Viceroy63]

Lol, and it was not me who eliminated you. Although I was hoping to. Actually looking at your play again I see that it was a good move to eliminate Green as it did provide you with all those spoils for the next round and you did get to score at least, just like you say; But spreading the troops all over the place? Do you think that was going to keep you from being eliminated yourself?

In other words; Do you think that spreading your troops out the way you did was stronger then building one super stack of say about 15 or so troops? Just wondering.

[Fewnix]

Lol, and it was not me who eliminated you. Although I was hoping to. Actually looking at your play again I see that it was a good move to eliminate Green as it did provide you with all those spoils for the next round and you did get to score at least, just like you say; But spreading the troops all over the place? Do you think that was going to keep you from being eliminated yourself?

In other words; Do you think that spreading your troops out the way you did was stronger then building one super stack of say about 15 or so troops? Just wondering.

Ah yes, the invite to the endles debate of how in a million rolls there is a 1.3% chance that strategy A leads to a better outcome than straregy B. I tend to subscribe to heuristic analysis .e.g rules of thumb and educated guesses to, in this case, come up with a defense in depth approach.

The theory is that a string of 2s is a defense in depth, relying on the tendency of an attack to lose momentum over a period of time or as it covers a larger area. Three is some math involved to say a string of 2's is a better defense than a string of 1's with a mid sized stack. An attack on a singleton from a tert with more than 4 troops on it is equiavlent to a roll of 3 die against one die (tie to the defender). There are only two possible outcomes - the attacker taking that tert without losing a single troop or the attacker loses one troop without taking the tert. But an attack from a tert with 4+ on a tert with 2 troops on is equivalent to a roll of 3 die against 2 ( tie to the defender) and there are 3 different possibities- the attacker can take the tert without losing a single troop, tthe attacker will lose one troop without taking the tert,defender losing one troop and there is the possiblity of the attacker losing two troops without the defender losing any.

Much debate takes place in CC about the math- the probablities of these different possiblites occurring . I just go with the gut. In this situation I was probably dead and might as well make some pretence of a defence. Nothing to lose, my honour to guard..

[Kiwi_NZ]

agrees,that makes us human

The other great endless debate is on:

what if

If ,I yellow had followed the soc guide,instead of my tunnel vision,the game may have turned a different course!

slightly hijacked off/on topic

The only thing,I think,I missing from my style of game play is when to mass stack,in stead ,I think,Ive somehow picked up a bad habit of spreading my troops out evenly over the stack,I have.
(notice,I evenly stacked my troops in this game)

What I mean is turning the cards in :say 15-30 ish
most times,I'll spread those out,is this right or wrong?

[dhallmeyer]

That totally depends on the situation. If you can lay a massive stack on a choke point, sometimes it's useful. The main idea is that you want to be flexible and mobile when the timing is right.

[Viceroy63]

agrees,that makes us human

The other great endless debate is on:

what if

If ,I yellow had followed the soc guide,instead of my tunnel vision,the game may have turned a different course!

slightly hijacked off/on topic

The only thing,I think,I missing from my style of game play is when to mass stack,in stead ,I think,Ive somehow picked up a bad habit of spreading my troops out evenly over the stack,I have.
(notice,I evenly stacked my troops in this game)

What I mean is turning the cards in :say 15-30 ish
most times,I'll spread those out,is this right or wrong?

I think that if you have a target in mind then it is definitely the right thing to do. But in the early stages of the game if you do not have a target in mind then a trade for 15 troops is better spread around. Like the "LOVE" Dude, just spread it around.

It also depends on gut instincts because sometimes you just never know what will happen. Sometimes a Novice will shoot of his load prematurely and a stack of 15 in just the right place could do a world of hurt.

So it just all depends on what the game looks like. It's also a good idea to know who the players are. If you see newbies in the game then anything could happen. In which case it just may be a good idea to have a stack of 15 or so near a newbie just in case.

[Viceroy63]

In other words; Do you think that spreading your troops out the way you did was stronger then building one super stack of say about 15 or so troops? Just wondering.

Ah yes, the invite to the endles debate of how in a million rolls there is a 1.3% chance that strategy A leads to a better outcome than straregy B. I tend to subscribe to heuristic analysis .e.g rules of thumb and educated guesses to, in this case, come up with a defense in depth approach.

I had no idea that there was such a debate over this particular strategy?

[Viceroy63]

10476657 Game Log Round 08

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Viceroy63 Assessment of Round 08

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Viceroy63 Game Form for Round 08

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[dhallmeyer]

Spoils beats region bonus, every time.

[Kiwi_NZ]

2012-02-08 00:29:13 - Kiwi_NZ received 3 troops for 5 regions
2012-02-08 00:29:19 - Kiwi_NZ deployed 2 troops on Beijing
2012-02-08 00:29:23 - Kiwi_NZ deployed 1 troops on Istanbul
2012-02-08 00:29:28 - Kiwi_NZ assaulted Manila from Beijing and conquered it from Viceroy63
2012-02-08 00:29:38 - Kiwi_NZ ended the turn and got spoils

Yellow here

just went for a futile card swop,nothing more could've been done,
and the end is near

P.S. cant wait for the next game report,great idea imho

[Viceroy63]

P.S. cant wait for the next game report,great idea imho

Thank you for the "great idea" very encouraging.

The next one will be with the premature assault. I want to demonstrate what happens in a perfect game when some one prematurely shoots off their game and why they lose because of it; And why and how others benefit from being so premature about trying to take another player out when the spoils are so low and does not justify the elimination of another player.

That one was like only 7 rounds if I remember correctly but it makes for a nice little lesson I think.

[BOSS_ONE]

P.S. cant wait for the next game report,great idea imho

Thank you for the "great idea" very encouraging.

The next one will be with the premature assault. I want to demonstrate what happens in a perfect game when some one prematurely shoots off their game and why they lose because of it; And why and how others benefit from being so premature about trying to take another player out when the spoils are so low and does not justify the elimination of another player.

That one was like only 7 rounds if I remember correctly but it makes for a nice little lesson I think.

Thanks must go to Viceroy for this superb idea -I for one found it to be very enlightening and has helped no end - I also can't wait for next one.

[Viceroy63]

Round 09 Pink to Play.



Round 09 Cyan to Play with Score Board.



Round 10 Pink to Play with Score Board

10476657 Game Log Round 09 and 10

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Viceroy63 Assessment of Round 09 and 10

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Viceroy63 Game Form for Round 09

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[dhallmeyer]

Yup. Good analysis.

[Viceroy63]

Round 11 Pink to play with Score Board.



Round 11 Cyan to play with Score Board.

10476657 Game Log Round 11

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Viceroy63 Assessment of Round 11

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[dhallmeyer]

Good point about moving troops to the front lines. May have turned the game.

[Viceroy63]

Wow! I almost had forgotten all about this thread.

Yes; My avoiding contact with those troops did allow me to regroup my forces. None of us had spoils right away at the end so it was a race for spoils as well but those troops stuck in the middle with no way out could not do much damage and by then I was receiving BZ bonuses.

How different this game could have been had those troops come into contact with mine earlier?

[Kiwi_NZ]

another great report, sadly I was on the tail end of a good old VR whopping