Master Fenrir wrote:Chuuuuck wrote:I know I personally put little weight in the CLA because it is very doubles heavy and the 8 game challenges frustrate me.
EXACTLY.
People have different opinions about the dice, but it is understood that "randomness" is more apparent over a larger sample size. This is one of the reasons that I prefer quads games. Even if I fail to conquer a single territory all game, I have 3 teammates who could potentially compensate.
In dubs, 1-2 rounds of good/bad dice can and usually do seal the deal for the entire game. With half of the games for the CLA determined by dubs games, I find I can't take the results too seriously. I mean absolutely no disrespect to the the CC dubs specialists when I say that. I'm just saying that the 4 dubs games in each series maximizes the potential for unfair dice determining the outcome.
My opinion on clans is based much more on their performance in clan wars with more equal team game distributions. If next year the CLA were to adopt a 3 dubs, 3 trips, 3 quads format, I could take the CLA standings more seriously.
you know the law of large numbers do not only apply to the number of players in a game, it also applies to the number of games played. When two evenly matched sides play 100 doubles, the results are likely to be close to 50-50. That is also true for quads.
However, I do agree that the variance is higher for dubs. But over a large number of games its effect decreases significantly. Having said that, I spent the last 20 minutes meticulously taking out the doubles results from Div 1A and below is the ranking that I have using only triples and quads results:
Won Played Win %
IMA 30 39 76.92%
Krt 27 40 67.50%
Tht 21 39 53.85%
L4d 21 40 52.50%
Emp 19 40 47.50%
ImD 17 39 43.59%
Leg 12 40 30.00%
Myt 11 39 28.21%
So basically, people in Thota and Empire who feel that their performance, or lack of it, has been due to bad luck in doubles should now feel fuzzy in knowing that they are exactly where they belong. Actually in the case of emp (the 5th best clan), they are significantly better placed in the actual league because of dubs (Chuuuck take this as a warning for conqueror's cup). The only persons who now have a license to whine are immortal assassins and L4D. Hopefully this will put a stop to the league smear campaign.
Would be interesting to see how the results turn out for 1B -- I am sorry I dont have the motivation to spend another 20 mins.