I've been thinking about dice pain for some time now ... and why we
perceive that the dice just
can't be random when it happens ... try this for size:
Let's think of a really rare event where the odds are ridiculously high ... even more ridiculously high than losing X v Y or whatever it is that just happened to you at Conquer Club ...
The odds for the event I'm thinking of are 13,983,816 to 1.
If I took one chance every year then probability indicates that once every 13,983,816 (X) years the event would come to pass.
If I took one chance every week then probability indicates that once every 268,920 years the event would come to pass. (X/52)
Stuff it, if I took 100 chances every week, then probability indicates that once every 2,689 years the event would come to pass (X/52/100).
So what is this event? It's 'never' going to happen to me is it?
It's winning the National Lottery (UK).
And it happens to someone almost every week. Even though the odds are so high.
Because so many people are playing. I don't know the actual numbers, but it's realistic to assume that 13,000,000 people play every week ... (There are 60,000,000 people in the UK.)
The maths:
UK Lottery uses 49 balls. Players pick 6 numbers.
Chances of first ball out being one of the 6 I picked : 6 in 49
And then second ball out being one of the 5 remaining: 5 in 48
And then third ball out being one of the 4 remaining: 4 in 47
And then fourth ball out being one of the 3 remaining: 3 in 46
And then fifth ball out being one of the 2 remaining: 2 in 45
And then sixth ball out being the 1 remaining: 1 in 44
Probability
= 6/49 * 5/48 * 4/47 * 3/46 * 2/45 * 1/44
= 720/10,068,347,520
Odds
= 10,068,347,520/720 : 1
= 13,983,816 : 1Using the
probability of 3 dice losing to 2 dice (or whatever your personal dice pain is) at ConquerClub you can calculate the probability of it happening repeatedly and, just for interest, see if your dice pain is more or less probable than winning the UK lottery ... which happens nearly every week.
)
