Dice, luck, wtf?

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Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby csk on Sat Jul 27, 2013 7:53 am

Ok I'm a noob and I realise this type of topic has probably been done to death, so please forgive me as I vent/ask some questions.

WHAT THE HELL IS UP WITH THE DICE? Today, I played two games on the classic map both against a single opponent. In the first game my opp went first. He had 2 territories in australia against my 2 territories in australia. He deployed there took it without a losing any troops. I had two territories in South America against his one and one neutral. I deployed there and attacked him lost ALL my troops. Finished the turn without spoils. He then used his bonus to wipe me out in South America. After that it was a massacre. At one stage I had a 4 troops against his one to break his bonus and I only broke even. He kept the bonus turned in his first three spoils and wiped me out in africa.

The second game has gone pretty much the same. Opp went first got South America. I had Dakar and he only had three troops on Sao Paolo I deployed and attacked and broke even 2-2. He kept the bonus I got no spoils. on his next turn He wiped me out in Africa and North America. So next round I have two territories in Australia against two neutrals deploy there take one territory lose no troops but then break even against the other. Get no spoils. He wipes me out in europe. I take Australia cant hold it cos he turns in his first 3 spoils along with bonus. Another massacre.

How can it be that in two separate games everything I did results in the worst possible outcome for me and everything my opponents do works out the best, or at least good, outcome? The probabilities on that must be huge.

I've read some of the forums here and people tend to say 'it's not luck you just have to play the odds'. But I do, I use an odds calculator. The odds have generally been in my favour but how can you play the odds if the worst possible outcome happens continously while you opponent has the best outcome?
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby csk on Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:07 am

Ok, there definitely has to be somthing wrong. I'm still in the second game I mentioned above but it's a massacre. I just had 7 troops against 1 and I LOST 7 TIMES IN A ROW, Couldn't take the territory. According to the odds calculator there is a .1% chance of that happening. Now if it was a once off ok, just bad luck, but it is happening continously.

What the hell is going on?
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby DoomYoshi on Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:15 am

When you got your premium subscription, did you check the box that says "Activate Premium Dice"?
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby Arama86n on Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:17 am

Today I got to start in the 5 1v1 games I've created, and generally been successful in 12/13 of the turns I've taken, It's a pleasure to be rolling this Saturday, I feel like buying a lotto ticket. But only two days ago my clan-mate was ripping his hair out and bellowing that I had the worst dice in the clan, and people should avoid me like the plague :)

The dice are fair and even. The "problem" is that the good dice don't always come when you need them, and that's why I missed four attempts to kill opponents earlier this week, and generally failed every time I tried to do anything important :) It was the worst run of bad luck I've had since I started playing on this site.
It's easy to overlook the good dice, when your mind is elsewhere and you're in "clean-up" phase in a game you've already won. But there they are, when you least need them.

There are a ton of dice-bitchers on this site, half of them are imbeciles that do not understand what "random" means, and the other half are trolls. Ignore them. Buying into that bullshit will only make you a weaker player. Play your best, play the odds, and learn to anticipate failure as well as success. Contemplate how the board will look if you FAIL that all important roll, not just if you succeed, and then adjust your plan accordingly.

Search out settings and maps that minimize luck, and learn them well. Learn when to attack, and when to bide your time. Then conquer all.

Or... let this be the first of many posts about the dice. Join the dice-bitchers and convince yourself that you're losing because your luck is worse than the next persons. It's the surest way never to get better :)
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby TeeGee on Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:25 am

csk wrote:Ok, there definitely has to be somthing wrong. I'm still in the second game I mentioned above but it's a massacre. I just had 7 troops against 1 and I LOST 7 TIMES IN A ROW, Couldn't take the territory. According to the odds calculator there is a .1% chance of that happening. Now if it was a once off ok, just bad luck, but it is happening continously.

What the hell is going on?


You have the best Dice stats I have seen on this site, http://www.conquerclub.com/player.php?m ... _id=644402

We all have bad days, you just seem to notice them more I think because overall you get much better dice than most.
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby csk on Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:40 am

Thanks Arma86n, I do tend to stay away from 1v1 classic cos I realise that whoever goes first tends to get the advantage and after that strategy or tactics doesn't matter so much. And I have had games like assasin where I was in pole position to win only for the good dice not to come and an opponent win on his nect turn. But I have never had a run where everything I do is disastrous. While everything my opponent does is perfect.

The probablities for my run of dice this morning has to be astronomical. I mean 7 on 3, 4 on 1, 6 on 3, 7 on 1 I all lost pretty much in a row.

However, I think I will just stay away from 1v1 from now on cos bad dice matter more in those games than bigger ones. At least in bigger ones you can recover somewhat from bad dice.
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby csk on Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:41 am

Tee Gee, my stats don't show that while I was rolling 6s so was my opponent 5 five times in a row! so I was losing when I was attacking 7 on 1!
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby ben1212 on Sat Jul 27, 2013 8:57 am

I must admit, your stats aren't that bad (actually quite good) but hey, if you want a map with a pretty fair gameplay and doesn't matter who goes first, I advise playing ww2 Poland. Ive played it plenty of times, and it has more strategy than luck (compared to the classic map). Warning, don't play ww2 Poland with trench because then, the first person going has a massive advantage. Other than that, ww2 Poland is pretty good.
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby Gilligan on Sat Jul 27, 2013 9:15 am

TeeGee wrote:
csk wrote:Ok, there definitely has to be somthing wrong. I'm still in the second game I mentioned above but it's a massacre. I just had 7 troops against 1 and I LOST 7 TIMES IN A ROW, Couldn't take the territory. According to the odds calculator there is a .1% chance of that happening. Now if it was a once off ok, just bad luck, but it is happening continously.

What the hell is going on?


You have the best Dice stats I have seen on this site, http://www.conquerclub.com/player.php?m ... _id=644402

We all have bad days, you just seem to notice them more I think because overall you get much better dice than most.


Holy shit, yes.
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby nàme on Sat Jul 27, 2013 9:19 am

Checking your outcomes overall, you seem to be positive across the board where it matters (excluding the 1v1/2). Compare it to mine where I'm only positive in one of them. Your sample size is simply too small and it should balance out eventually. Apparantly, it's choosing to do so quickly as opposed to over time, which would be more normal and natural.
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby Gilligan on Sat Jul 27, 2013 9:23 am

nàme wrote:Checking your outcomes overall, you seem to be positive across the board where it matters (excluding the 1v1/2). Compare it to mine where I'm only positive in one of them. Your sample size is simply too small and it should balance out eventually. Apparantly, it's choosing to do so quickly as opposed to over time, which would be more normal and natural.


Mine are all 0 (except for one).
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby csk on Sat Jul 27, 2013 10:55 am

nàme wrote:Checking your outcomes overall, you seem to be positive across the board where it matters (excluding the 1v1/2). Compare it to mine where I'm only positive in one of them. Your sample size is simply too small and it should balance out eventually. Apparantly, it's choosing to do so quickly as opposed to over time, which would be more normal and natural.


Yes, I tend to play trench and manual settings. My strategy is also quite conservative. I think that accounts for my good stats. I tend to be attacking when there is a 3:1 ratio at least in my favour.

So, if my stats are quite good does that mean I should expect a run of disastrous dice in order to bring my stats back to the average? Is that how the game makes dice 'random' and everyone's stats level off to the average? If you play the odds eventually the game will just make you lose (even when it's .1% probability!) just to level off you stats?
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Sat Jul 27, 2013 11:42 am

csk wrote:
nàme wrote:Checking your outcomes overall, you seem to be positive across the board where it matters (excluding the 1v1/2). Compare it to mine where I'm only positive in one of them. Your sample size is simply too small and it should balance out eventually. Apparantly, it's choosing to do so quickly as opposed to over time, which would be more normal and natural.


Yes, I tend to play trench and manual settings. My strategy is also quite conservative. I think that accounts for my good stats. I tend to be attacking when there is a 3:1 ratio at least in my favour.

So, if my stats are quite good does that mean I should expect a run of disastrous dice in order to bring my stats back to the average? Is that how the game makes dice 'random' and everyone's stats level off to the average? If you play the odds eventually the game will just make you lose (even when it's .1% probability!) just to level off you stats?


http://www.conquerclub.com/player.php?m ... _id=644402

The 3v2, 3v1, etc. outcomes are separated for ya there.


After very much observation + bias of the CC dice, little comprehensive understanding of random.org and how CC uses it, I've concluded that the dice are streaky. I just don't care enough about it. To explain how a good move went crap, I'll say in the team game chat: awesome dice. If it's real bad, I may joke around in the game chat. That's about all one can do--to stay mentally healthy.
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby nàme on Sat Jul 27, 2013 4:01 pm

csk wrote:
nàme wrote:Checking your outcomes overall, you seem to be positive across the board where it matters (excluding the 1v1/2). Compare it to mine where I'm only positive in one of them. Your sample size is simply too small and it should balance out eventually. Apparantly, it's choosing to do so quickly as opposed to over time, which would be more normal and natural.


Yes, I tend to play trench and manual settings. My strategy is also quite conservative. I think that accounts for my good stats. I tend to be attacking when there is a 3:1 ratio at least in my favour.

So, if my stats are quite good does that mean I should expect a run of disastrous dice in order to bring my stats back to the average? Is that how the game makes dice 'random' and everyone's stats level off to the average? If you play the odds eventually the game will just make you lose (even when it's .1% probability!) just to level off you stats?


I took statistics for a while so when I said that it should balance out eventually, that is just how it happens. It's not something that the site controls, but rather, it's called the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers. Basically, over time, your dice stats will approach approximately normal. That's what I'm referring to when I say that it will balance out. It's not CC or random.org, it's a law of nature.

I have 35K dice rolls under my belt, and I am pretty close to normal.
You have 20K, and have very few 1s. Over time, your dice will balance out to give you an average of ~3.50, like mine.
If you look at Gilligan (who rolled 10x more 1s than you have rolled), his is pretty much normal as well.

Strategy has nothing to do with dice rolls; only your outcome on the game and your winning percentage. The game doesn't make dice random on it's own, nature will only bring it back down to average. You are Irish, so you traditionally have pretty good luck, but it's totally random.
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby Shannon Apple on Sat Jul 27, 2013 4:18 pm

TeeGee wrote:
csk wrote:Ok, there definitely has to be somthing wrong. I'm still in the second game I mentioned above but it's a massacre. I just had 7 troops against 1 and I LOST 7 TIMES IN A ROW, Couldn't take the territory. According to the odds calculator there is a .1% chance of that happening. Now if it was a once off ok, just bad luck, but it is happening continously.

What the hell is going on?


You have the best Dice stats I have seen on this site, http://www.conquerclub.com/player.php?m ... _id=644402

We all have bad days, you just seem to notice them more I think because overall you get much better dice than most.


Wow, you're right. I have never seen anyone with those stats! Amazing.

I think it's possible that you've had a massive run of good luck and karma is back to bite ya in the ass. This happens to us all. There have been times where I've lost a whole slew of games one after another because I couldn't make a kill. Then, all of a sudden I start getting killer dice and win some points back. I do think that the dice are streaky that way sometimes.
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby DoomYoshi on Sat Jul 27, 2013 9:22 pm

nàme wrote:That's what I'm referring to when I say that it will balance out. It's not CC or random.org, it's a law of nature.


So mathematical reality and natural reality are one and the same?
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Re: Dice, luck, wtf?

Postby csk on Sun Jul 28, 2013 6:03 am

nàme wrote:
csk wrote:
nàme wrote:Checking your outcomes overall, you seem to be positive across the board where it matters (excluding the 1v1/2). Compare it to mine where I'm only positive in one of them. Your sample size is simply too small and it should balance out eventually. Apparantly, it's choosing to do so quickly as opposed to over time, which would be more normal and natural.


Yes, I tend to play trench and manual settings. My strategy is also quite conservative. I think that accounts for my good stats. I tend to be attacking when there is a 3:1 ratio at least in my favour.

So, if my stats are quite good does that mean I should expect a run of disastrous dice in order to bring my stats back to the average? Is that how the game makes dice 'random' and everyone's stats level off to the average? If you play the odds eventually the game will just make you lose (even when it's .1% probability!) just to level off you stats?


I took statistics for a while so when I said that it should balance out eventually, that is just how it happens. It's not something that the site controls, but rather, it's called the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers. Basically, over time, your dice stats will approach approximately normal. That's what I'm referring to when I say that it will balance out. It's not CC or random.org, it's a law of nature.

I have 35K dice rolls under my belt, and I am pretty close to normal.
You have 20K, and have very few 1s. Over time, your dice will balance out to give you an average of ~3.50, like mine.
If you look at Gilligan (who rolled 10x more 1s than you have rolled), his is pretty much normal as well.

Strategy has nothing to do with dice rolls; only your outcome on the game and your winning percentage. The game doesn't make dice random on it's own, nature will only bring it back down to average. You are Irish, so you traditionally have pretty good luck, but it's totally random.


I know how probability works. I just don't know how the engine that generates the dice work. But it doesn't matter anyway I guess the dice can be just a little streaky which happened to be exacerbated by my game choice
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