edocsil wrote:Your missing the point that I think you are concealing something. If I am town here why would I want you to go and trick people? As I have said, the argument doesn't make a lot of sense, and you being a fairly veteran player should know that. The conclusion is that you know more then you let on. THAT is what I am arguing about, not the specific details of your plan.
I definitely am concealing something. It's one of those plans that should be revealed on a need to know basis. The thing I "know" more than what I'm currently letting on is the specifics of how to orchestrate the rest of the plan (after confessions are made).
What's irking me is that a town/town player (which everyone should be pretending to be unless they accept a deal) has nothing to lose by seeing someone else confess (technically, I'm the only one bound by the deal to consider the confesser almost cleared in the other game), yet several of you seem to be shooting down my idea.
safariguy5 wrote:So how long were you going to give for someone to take your deal? Also, how can I trust you Rodion based on all that you said being "you're town/town" which is basically what every single mafia player says.
I don't want to discourage confessions, so I don't want to establish any hard time constraint.
You can't trust me, but the point I am trying to make is that a T/T player has NOTHING TO LOSE by seeing a T/M or M/T confess (ffs, we are getting a freebie lynch!).
safariguy5 wrote:Also, human nature is to win as much as possible (cue Charlie Sheen joke). I figure nobody is biting because everyone wants as great a possibility as possible for winning both games. You can't singlehandedly guarantee that someone who takes the deal will win one of their games. I maybe could see this deal working towards LYLO, but right now with Day 1, there are so many possibilities out there that the deal really offers nothing concrete to anyone, town or mafia.
That's a good point. It's possible that people are willing to risk the double T/M or M/T win, but it's ok. Perhaps if we make a good lynch we can persuade the remaining mafia to jump ship. I agree that we'll be more likely to extract a confession later on in the game than right now (hindsight is helping a lot here). Other than possibly New Guy and Soundman who are yet to comment, we won't be getting a free confession this early.
Anyway, the payoff matrix of the plan I envisioned with a confession was this:
T/T -
always wins when confessions is made
T/M or M/T-
loses if confession is made by someone else, but
breaks even* when the confession is made by themselves
M/M -
always loses when confessions are made, unless they make a confession themselves and ride their fake town credit on the other game
*breaking even is obviously a rough estimation since it is highly situational - maybe your scumbuddies are usually scummy (think Shield or VS) and you think the game is a lost cause from D1, so you might as well give up there to raise your chances on the other side. Honestly, I'm not really interested in thinking whether they'd perceive the deal to be good or not. The deal is there and if they decide to take it I'll make sure T/T players reap its benefits. That's as simple as it gets.
Some7hingCLEVER wrote:thats the only way u can be one hundred percent that there not lying about anything
Why would you assume I'd be 100% sure? I've covered that more than once already. Never mentioned 100% certainty.
crazymilkshake5 wrote:Just read up on every thing and I Shall FoS Rodion and possible vote until further notice.
Can you give a reason to go with your FOS, if that's not too much to ask?