Harvard Study: More Guns Do Not Mean More Crime

[Phatscotty]

What is the evidence that more guns = more crime?

[Lootifer]

What is the evidence that more guns = more crime?

The study dispels that myth; I have never disputed that though. In fact I will quite happily agree that gun ownership in the US is probably one of the reasons you have pretty good home invasion and burglary stats.

However my comment was that the data shows no correlation; this not only implies that more guns does not equal more crime, but also implies that more guns does not equal less crime either; no correlation means that gun ownership is fairly meaningless.

The study is pretty bias; but thats ok, its an a opinion-style piece so I assume its a document that is forming part of a wider debate (as opposed to scientific relationships).

[HapSmo19]

There is, in fact, no correlation between guns and crime. At all . . .

Are you guys seeing what I'm seeing?

[Lootifer]

What are you seeing?

Also doing a linear regression on the first table yields:

- Equation: Murder rate = -0.00018(Gun Ownership)+6.76
- Standard Error on terms: Gun Ownership SE = 0.00011, constant = 2.43
- R-squared: 0.20

Implies theres a tiny correlation in favour of more relaxed gun laws; however the error is so very high that making policy on it would be boardering on idiocy.

Incidently outliers are not great for regression so its often best to leave them out as some other huge and powerful factor is likely at play (this is in this case not gun laws in the case of Russia and Luxembourg). If we remove these and retest (while acknowledging that they are anecdotes in favour of relaxed gun laws) the regression becomes:

- Equation: Murder rate = -0.0000091(Gun Ownership)+1.58
- Standard Error on terms: Gun Ownership SE = 0.0000132, constant = 0.31
- R-squared: 0.05

Uh oh, the standard error on the Gun Ownership statistic is bigger than the coefficient... You know what that means? Also R2 of 0.05, game over, theres nothing in it; guns are meaningless unless further information is supplied.

[Phatscotty]

What are you seeing?

Diversity fail. Assimilation fail. Multiculturalism fail.

Loot, do you care or have you even been vocal about the fire arms homicide rate in Mexico? Theirs is almost 3 times worse, and has roughly 1/3 our population. They ban guns. You and people like you should be more than 8 times more mad about Mexico than USA, that is, if your motives are pure.

[HapSmo19]

What are you seeing?

The correlation between blacks and guns and crime.

[Lootifer]

What are you seeing?

Diversity fail. Assimilation fail. Multiculturalism fail.

Loot, do you care or have you even been vocal about the fire arms homicide rate in Mexico? Theirs is almost 3 times worse, and has roughly 1/3 our population. They ban guns. You and people like you should be more than 8 times more mad about Mexico than USA, that is, if your motives are pure.

Im pretty neutral on the topic. My only post in this thread was that the data shows no correlation; hence the argument Gabon posted swings both ways.

[SvenTveskägg]

I think it was published in Freakonomics that the crime rate in America dropped after abortion laws were relaxed.

( Yeah, I know....not the best stone cold source of information.)

However it was a compelling chapter. Anytime you attack poverty, you reduce crime statistics in the generation that follows.

The best way to attack poverty is through funding education, free birth control (including abortions), and sex-ed. In the end you hope for the gun argument to be a moot point as even if most have one, they know when and when not to use one.

JRock

Interesting thougt!

[Phatscotty]

What are you seeing?

Diversity fail. Assimilation fail. Multiculturalism fail.

Loot, do you care or have you even been vocal about the fire arms homicide rate in Mexico? Theirs is almost 3 times worse, and has roughly 1/3 our population. They ban guns. You and people like you should be more than 8 times more mad about Mexico than USA, that is, if your motives are pure.

Im pretty neutral on the topic. My only post in this thread was that the data shows no correlation; hence the argument Gabon posted swings both ways.

I know ya are. I was asking earlier for the evidence, pretty much from anyone who wants to share some. It wasn't directed only at you

[Lootifer]

Interesting regression:

Guns (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_ ... by_country)
vs
Homocides (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... icide_rate)

Results:

Significant negative relationship between Guns and Homocide (i.e. in favour of relaxed gun laws); note that this is the statistical use of significant rather than the opinion usage.

Homocides per capita = -0.238(Guns per capita) + 12.651

Standard Errors: Guns per capita SE = 0.080, constant = 1.278, equation/regression = 12.847

R-quared: 0.05

So using all international data there is a relationship. But it is tiny in comparision to the constant, and the r-squared clearly points at it meaning pretty much nothing.

[john9blue]

What are you seeing?

The correlation between blacks and guns and crime.

if we can abort to reduce crime, why not kill people who are more likely than fetuses to commit crimes?

[Metsfanmax]

What are you seeing?

The correlation between blacks and guns and crime.

if we can abort to reduce crime, why not kill people who are more likely than fetuses to commit crimes?

Because fetuses do not share the same morally relevant characteristics that make killing an adult human wrong, so to equate their killings is meaningless.

[Phatscotty]

Mets, do you have kids? I'm guessing you don't, and I'm not gonna take it anywhere, I'm just curious

[Metsfanmax]

I do not. Still a little young for that.

[GreecePwns]

There is, in fact, no correlation between guns and crime. At all . . .

Are you guys seeing what I'm seeing?

If you're seeing that black people are disproportionately poor, and that poor people are disproportionately incentivized toward crimes, then yes.

[Phatscotty]

There is, in fact, no correlation between guns and crime. At all . . .

Are you guys seeing what I'm seeing?

If you're seeing that black people are disproportionately poor, and that poor people are disproportionately incentivized toward crimes, then yes.

Why are black people disproportionately poor?

What does the information concerning blacks and homicide rates look like pre-1975?

[GreecePwns]

Because until as recently as a generation ago, they were denied basic equal rights to the foundations of economic prosperity and were subjected to frequent and varied intimidation tactics, and they are slowly recovering from the end of these practices.

[HapSmo19]

What's the most they can earn before you'll no longer back them up for going around [dancing in the rain]?

[Phatscotty]

Because until as recently as a generation ago, they were denied basic equal rights to the foundations of economic prosperity and were subjected to frequent and varied intimidation tactics, and they are slowly recovering from the end of these practices.

so why has the homicide rate exploded during the progress? I'm not doubting what you are saying, but something isn't adding up with the implications.

[saxitoxin]

There is, in fact, no correlation between guns and crime. At all . . .

Are you guys seeing what I'm seeing?

If you're seeing that black people are disproportionately poor, and that poor people are disproportionately incentivized toward crimes, then yes.

agree with GP

anyway, unrelated ... media reporting on gun control in U.S. ---


http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/201 ... ml?ml=po_r

also ... countries with most mass shooting fatalities per 1 million people ...

http://www.rampageshooting.com/

#1 - Norway
#2 - Finland
#3 - Slovakia
#4 - Israel
#5 - Belgium
#6 - USA
#7 - Dutchland
#8 - Germany
#9 - UK
#10 - Canada
#18(T) - New Zealand (congratulations, Lootifer!)

[Funkyterrance]

Obviously more guns does not necessarily equal more crime. Crime, in general, is a product of poverty. Someone who is comfortable financially could have a pile of guns and probably not have one impulse to use them to commit a crime.
However, if you give someone who is contemplating committing a crime a gun as opposed to say, a stick, they are much more likely to try and pull something off.
I also think the argument that if everyone had a gun there would be no problems is a little flawed. How many convenience store owners have guns? I'm guessing lots but there is always the advantage of surprise that someone committing a crime will have.

[Phatscotty]

I think crime is also a product of greed. Some people I have known in the past were definitely not poor, they just wanted more.

[Funkyterrance]

I think crime is also a product of greed. Some people I have known in the past were definitely not poor, they just wanted more.

I'll buy that.
However, the variables remain more or less the same.

[Phatscotty]

I think crime is also a product of greed. Some people I have known in the past were definitely not poor, they just wanted more.

I'll buy that.
However, the variables remain more or less the same.

Well, I think greed, and poverty for that matter, go a lot deeper too, deep into the culture. Crimes have been committed that involves stealing someones basketball shoes, or their fancy hat, or just to show off, or for no reason at all. From what I have seen in my life, I don't think I've ever seen any crime that was poverty motivated. Of course, I did not hang around with poor people, but the one's I am thinking about were single parents homes and on food stamps and the whole works. But I don't call them "poor" because they still had a decent car, a television in every room, a box full of sega games, furnished upstairs and basement, taking care of 2 dogs..... Most of the crime I have seen and heard of is based on everything but poverty.

I understand down in the city, there might be someone starving who was begging all day but came up short for a double cheesburger and Mcdonalds closes in 7 minutes getting rough with someone or overly aggressive or feigned threats, but I would assume most of the crime and violence is drug/gang related and self esteem motivated (showing off). And what is poor anyways? why make excuses for those kind of people? They have just as much money as anyone else (drug dealers have more) but it's what they do with their money, blowing it all at the casino or the strip club. Easy money goes easy, because they don't understand the value or what it takes to earn it honestly. So I think the poverty line, while partially true, is overhyped and meant mostly to pull on people heart strings, which conveniently turns off the thinking cap.

It comes down to making poor choices. I don't look at it monetarily. I do, but there is more too it, a lot more.

[HapSmo19]

HOUSTON, Texas (AP) -- A 22-year-old Houston-area man shot by robbers who wanted his new Air Jordan tennis shoes has died of his wounds.

The Houston Chronicle reports (http://bit.ly/WRDIBm ) Wednesday that Joshua Wood died at Houston Northwest Hospital. Authorities say no arrests have been made.

The Harris County Sheriff's Office says Wood was shot Friday as he tried to escape armed robbers who wanted the newly released Air Jordan XI "Bred" sneakers he had purchased earlier in the day. The shoes retail for about $185.

It doesn't say if the shooter was barefoot, but, how can you fault him?

FUCKING AIR JORDANS HOMIE!