Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

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Re: Communist Backlash+RIP 2 Party System in Apr. Greek Elec

Postby BigBallinStalin on Wed Feb 15, 2012 11:48 pm

GreecePwns wrote:
Phatscotty wrote:
GreecePwns wrote:Whether or not Greece is spending a lot, we would have had surpluses. If my government were to spend 2 euros and take in 2.5, they'd run a surplus too.

Systematic tax evasion is like money found on the floor. If people can evade 40 percent of their taxes knowing they will not get audited or punished in any way, whether they are at 42 percent of their income or 24 percent, they will evade them. Saying otherwise is indeed naive and ignores the basis of economic incentives.

This has nothing to do with Greece's level of spending, because no government budgets for a surplus of 10% of GDP to account for rampant tax evasion.


I just want to put it like this. Cut spending, and the demand for "more revenues" will not exist. You can't spend more than you have, it only seems like you can for a little while. I'm sure it was fun, but now Greece has to pay the piper.

Sorry, but Greece is getting what they deserve, and I'm sure America is going to get what it deserves in an extremely similar fashion. The only way out of this was for Greece to cut spending/the need for more revenues a few years ago, and that didn't happen.

This is the #1 reason why I am and have been so fucking hardcore about cutting America's spending 3-5 years before we get in over our heads. That's why it's Ron Paul, now or never.

We need to cut 1 trillion dollars out of our budget NEXT YEAR! If you think that's bad, it will be far worse if we wait until we can't do anything about it, and have OTHER countries tell us what to do and how to live. Whoever owns our debt will be the one making the rules, and we can kiss freedom or anything remotely close to it goodbye.

USA has already been downgraded once....we are about to be downgraded again. There are no second chances, and bailouts just prolong reality a little bit longer and make the debt even bigger.

It's now or never.
Okay.



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Re: Greek Parliament Now at 12(!) Parties, Election 4/19?

Postby GreecePwns on Mon Mar 19, 2012 10:07 am

Everyone and their mother seems to want to lead their own party in Greece, leading to there now being 12 in Parliament and 3 more pushing to enter in the next election. The two most recent opinion polls averaged together give us this Parliament.

Please look at the OP for each party's description.

New Democracy 117
Democratic Left 36
SYRIZA 34
PASOK 34
KKE 33
Independent Greeks 18
LAOS 11
Greens 8
Golden Dawn 8

Possible coalitions: Absolutely none. The only one I see even remotely possible is ND + PASOK, which is exactly 151 seats as of today. I don't expect even this possibility to be available in the next opinion poll.
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Re: Greek Parliament Now at 12(!) Parties, Election 4/19?

Postby thegreekdog on Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:32 pm

Golden Dawn with 8?

Speaking of... how do Greeks get a neo-Nazi party? Isn't that an oxymoron? Is it truly neo-Nazi or is it just facist and racist?
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Re: Greek Parliament Now at 12(!) Parties, Election 4/19?

Postby GreecePwns on Mon Mar 19, 2012 12:55 pm

"Only Aryans in blood and Greeks in descent can be candidate members of Golden Dawn".
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

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Re: Greek Parliament Now at 12(!) Parties, Election 4/19?

Postby thegreekdog on Mon Mar 19, 2012 1:46 pm

GreecePwns wrote:"Only Aryans in blood and Greeks in descent can be candidate members of Golden Dawn".


Ah... so it's Aryans and native Greeks. That makes tons of sense.

"Blonde hair? Blue eyes? Pale white complexion? 6'4", 210? You're in."

"Black hair? Brown eyes? Dark complexion? 5'4", 210? You're in."

"Just don't intermarry."
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Re: Greek Parliament Now at 12(!) Parties, Election 4/19?

Postby saxitoxin on Wed Mar 21, 2012 6:20 pm

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Re: Greek Parliament Now at 12(!) Parties, Election 4/19?

Postby GreecePwns on Thu Mar 22, 2012 9:42 am

Why are the boulevards of Paris lined with trees?
Because the Germans prefer to march in the shade.
Chariot of Fire wrote:As for GreecePwns.....yeah, what? A massive debt. Get a job you slacker.

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Re: Greek Parliament Now at 12(!) Parties, Election 4/19?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Thu Mar 22, 2012 10:54 am

Isn't this a good thing? Having 12 parties? At least the government can't make any decisions. If the legal systems are robust enough, enable common law and let Greeks sort it out themselves.

I'm sure political authority at the provincial or county level would be less fractious than at the national government level, so why not let government's effective authority end at the subnational level?
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Re: Greek Parliament Now at 12(!) Parties, Election 4/19?

Postby saxitoxin on Thu Mar 22, 2012 11:19 am

BigBallinStalin wrote:Isn't this a good thing? Having 12 parties? At least the government can't make any decisions. If the legal systems are robust enough, enable common law and let Greeks sort it out themselves.


I don't think the Greeks have the common law ... TGD? Since their courts can't "discover" laws they have to rely on a legislature to pass them?
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Re: Greek Parliament Now at 12(!) Parties, Election 4/19?

Postby GreecePwns on Thu Mar 22, 2012 12:15 pm

We do not have common law. BBS, in these situations what usually happens is minority government is formed, lasts maybe a couple of months, and election after election is held until something changes. Just look at Canada and the UK, where eventually both conservative parties were essentially saying, "This country needs a majority, and since we're leading in the polls, we deserve it." And it worked.

-PASOK has elected a "new" leader for their party, Evangelos Venizelos. Same as the old boss. In the US you have the Kennedys and the Bushes, we have Venizelos, Papandreou and Karamanlis. They all take their turns in party leadership.

-SYRIZA leader is calling for a dialogue which would possibly lead to a coalition between Democratic Left, SYRIZA and KKE. KKE refuses to talk to the other left parties as always, and Democratic Left just broke away from SYRIZA. A 3 party coalition would get 153 seats according to the estimation in the OP, while a SYRIZA-Dim.Ar. cooperation would get 116 seats. In both, ND would be reduced to 67 seats.
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Re: Greek Parliament Now at 12(!) Parties, Election 4/19?

Postby Fruitcake on Thu Mar 22, 2012 4:13 pm

Who said Eurosceptics did not have elegant counter-arguments?

Blackadder & Baldrick's take on the Euro

Baldrick: "What I want to know sir, is before there was a Euro there were lots of different types of money that different people used. And now there's only one type of money that the foreign people use. And what I want to know is, how did we get from one state of affairs to the other state of affairs"

Blackadder: "Baldrick. Do you mean, how did the Euro start?"

Baldrick: "Yes sir"

Blackadder: "Well, you see Baldrick, back in the 1980's there were many different countries all running their own finances and using different types of money. On one side you had the major economies of France, Belgium, Holland and Germany, and on the other, the weaker nations of Spain, Greece, Ireland, Italy and Portugal. They got together and decided that it would be much easier for everyone if they could all use the same money, have one Central Bank,and belong to one large club where everyone would be happy. This meant that there could never be a situation whereby financial meltdown would lead to social unrest, wars and crises".

Baldrick: "But this is sort of a crisis, isn't it sir".

Blackadder: "That's right Baldrick. You see, there was only one slight flaw with the plan".

Baldrick: "What was that then sir?"

Blackadder: "It was bollocks".

(and if you are wondering why I have posted this here....it is because this is at the root of this whole situation...unfortunately)
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Re: Greek Parliament Now at 12(!) Parties, Election 4/19?

Postby Fruitcake on Fri Mar 23, 2012 2:55 pm

Yesterday, and to a lesser extent today (Friday’s tend to slacken on the bull/bear in a china shop analogy) was a pretty negative day on the markets. The origins of this were the same kind of headlines we have got used to over the past 2 years. 5 months of contraction in the Chinese manufacturing sector was reported, and this news was matched yesterday with a slide in both German and the European-wide manufacturing PMI which suggested that January’s positive was nothing more than a temporary aberration and a multi-quarter recession in the Euro zone is more than likely.

In the past there has been much spoken about a 2 speed Europe (which is why the French have been cuddling up to the Germans as they wanted to be in the fast lane). With Germany seeming to be slipping inexorably into the mire I am not so sure this 2 speed thingy is what is going to happen...not under the Euro mechanism anyway.

Bond yields are the flavour of the month again. Spanish yields are creeping higher again as the market realises the austerity targets just ain’t going to be hit, and the deficit reduction programs are proving near impossible to fulfil. My instincts tell me that Spain is the country most likely to get into trouble sooner rather than later. As for poor Greece....well no one really believed their last visit with their hands out would be the last...did they? Stories are running around the markets that they will miss their targets by a country mile (or would that be Kilometre Mein Herr). Unfortunately there still seems to be some severe lacking in fiscal compliance in that country as to where the moolah is disappearing to. Jokes abound comparing Greek handouts to Nigerian Oil revenues...neither really appear on the balance sheets of the country as the rapacious ruling classes fill their pockets.

I shall be fascinated to watch if Spain really starts sliding. This is not a country the size of Greece but a meal even the Germans could not manage to swallow. It was amusing to watch them give the Churchill salute to Merkel and her gang recently...yep, this one really is too big to bully.

Money flows are showing some interesting patterns, with funds easing out of the Euro Zone into far eastern strong currencies and, as always, the Dollar. Unfortunately Sterling, which has been something of a home for quite a lot of moolah recently has topped out (especially after the fat boy's budget) and I sense something of a slide about to occur.

Summer is on its way in Europe and the Politicians are nervous, and rightly so, they brought this whole shambolic state of affairs to where it is today. The people are getting very restless and summertime, with warm nights and long days, is perfect for aggressive uprisings.
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Re: Greek Parliament Now at 12(!) Parties, Election 4/19?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Fri Mar 23, 2012 3:02 pm

Summer is on its way in Europe and the Politicians are nervous, and rightly so, they brought this whole shambolic state of affairs to where it is today. The people are getting very restless and summertime, with warm nights and long days, is perfect for aggressive uprisings.


Good. Maybe they will hold their politicians accountable. After the revolution, they can reinstall another national government, whose politicians will play the same game as before, while the people respond likewise.
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Re: Greek Parliament Now at 12(!) Parties, Election 4/19?

Postby Fruitcake on Sun Mar 25, 2012 3:10 pm

BigBallinStalin wrote:
Summer is on its way in Europe and the Politicians are nervous, and rightly so, they brought this whole shambolic state of affairs to where it is today. The people are getting very restless and summertime, with warm nights and long days, is perfect for aggressive uprisings.


Good. Maybe they will hold their politicians accountable. After the revolution, they can reinstall another national government, whose politicians will play the same game as before, while the people respond likewise.


It matters little. As far as I am concerned, we have just sat down after swigging a cocktail or two in the interval between acts of a Greek tragedy.

The fat lady has yet to sing but this means nothing to those realists in the Eurozone. The way they are bleating, Greece has been saved.

A little reality check, just so we all understand.

Banks owned most of the Greek debt and were coerced into saying yes whilst the minnow creditors have been bent over and royally given it in the derrier. A very unseemly way to conduct international finance.

The EU may have thrown a few more billion Euros at Greece to thank the pets they have in place there for losing their next election (which of course will ensure jobs at the top table for the inner circle) but the will of the markets will win, this is reality. They always do. Politicians will always think they can get the better of the markets, and they ALWAYS end up with egg, poached, scrambled or even fried all over their hawkish, self interested faces.

Want proof? Just look at the distressed junk yields (better known as Greek sovereign debt) at 20%+. This was after a surge to the dizzy heights of 40% last month, and having scaled down from there is now steadily rising once more.

Get the message loud and clear....Greece is bankrupt. It has defaulted. It will need another bail out in next 6 months. And it will leave the Euro. Then the trouble will really start.
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Re: Greek Parliament Now at 12(!) Parties, Election 4/19?

Postby BigBallinStalin on Sun Mar 25, 2012 10:03 pm

We see this happen in the real world. You have too much discretion in the hands of central bankers, the politicians, and, of course, their friends in high places.

The bailout was for "stabilizing" the Euro, but I'd think at least you and me knew that this wasn't going to end well (and we're right). Is it mostly from corrupt central planners, or are they just that incompetent?

Do you think most people are just oblivious to this? When people hear the words "market failure", they feel justified that their governments are "doing something" to (haha) "correct" it.

What a sad, ignorant, incompetent aspect of humanity.
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