Why inflation may be worse than you think it is

[bigtoughralf]

Looks like the US started running a surplus after 2000, until the Saudis blew up the world trade and sucked the US into its catastrophic military defeats in the Middle East and central Asia. Checkmate Bin Laden.

[mookiemcgee]

US government being in a deficit position didn't start with Biden, that's for sure.

It's been going on pretty much all of your adult life.

No president including Biden has EVER created as large of a deficit as Trump did, and the deficit has shrunk under Biden.

the debt limit is a stupid stupid debate. Reps are playing chicken with it's citizens ability to access debt for an entire generation. It's not a debate about spending, it's a debate about paying back money we already spent.

[jimboston]

It's not a debate about spending, it's a debate about paying back money we already spent.

At least that’s the Democratic talking point parroted verbatim.

The whole reason Congress created the Debt Limit was to force future Reps to be really look at and consider the spending.

I agree that BOTH Congress AND The President are being idiots playing this political game… or at least cutting it so close. Congress does have the right to hold back passing a bill on the Debt Limit to get concessions on spending. The President was an idiot to say he’d “Never Negotiate”. Why is negotiating bad? Maybe if he had come to the table back in January they could’ve had this thing solved by now.

Yeah… they’re both are playing “chicken” and it’s the public that will pay if they crash… but it was why they created the Debt Limit law in the first place place.

[GaryDenton]

POS both sides argument, when only Republicans ever threaten to crash the economy by refusing to pay the bills on the money they budgeted and on debts that are mainly from Republican administrations.
Parroting GOP talking points and then saying others are parroting Dem talking points. Typical.
The debt limit is unconstitutional in several different ways. Think about it, part of the House forcing actions on the president by saying the US will not honor debts.
It is always these stupid arguments the GOP specializes in instead of governing.
"Heh, we have spent too much money, let's threaten to not pay these bills unless the other side gives us everything we want. That will show them."
There are separate budgeting debates, this is nothing except threats not to pay bills.

[GaryDenton]

Who caused this - take a look.

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=715510487123591&set=a.485181613489814

[jusplay4fun]

Here are a few details on the Debt increase agreement:

New Details in Debt Limit Deal: Where $136 Billion in Cuts Will Come From
Two years of spending caps, additional work requirements for food stamps and cuts to I.R.S. funding are among the components in the deal.

The full legislative text of Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s agreement in principle with President Biden to suspend the nation’s borrowing limit revealed new and important details about the deal, which House lawmakers are expected to vote on this week.

The centerpiece of the agreement remains a two-year suspension of the debt ceiling, which caps the total amount of money the government is allowed to borrow. Suspending that cap, which is now set at $31.4 trillion, would allow the government to keep borrowing money and pay its bills on time — as long as Congress passes the agreement before June 5, when Treasury has said the United States will run out of cash.

In exchange for suspending the limit, Republicans demanded a range of policy concessions from Mr. Biden. Chief among them are limits on the growth of federal discretionary spending over the next two years. Mr. Biden also agreed to some new work requirements for certain recipients of food stamps and the Temporary Aid for Needy Families program.

Both sides agreed to modest efforts meant to accelerate the permitting of some energy projects — and, in a surprise move, a fast track to construction for a new natural gas pipeline from West Virginia to Virginia that has been championed by Republican lawmakers and a key centrist Democrat.

(...)
Under the new legislation, the debt limit will be set at whatever level it has reached when the suspension ends. For political reasons, Republicans tend to prefer suspending the debt limit rather than raising it, because it allows them to say they did not technically green-light a higher debt limit.

The suspension will kick the next potential fight over the nation’s debt load to 2025 — past the next presidential election.

Caps and cuts spending
The bill cuts so-called nondefense discretionary, which includes domestic law enforcement, forest management, scientific research and more — for the 2024 fiscal year. It would limit all discretionary spending to 1 percent growth in 2025, which is effectively a budget cut, because that is projected to be slower than the rate of inflation.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/29/business/debt-ceiling-agreement.html

[Dukasaur]

Cuts to "law enforcement, forest management, scientific research and more".

No cuts to the endless enhancement of the ability of the Pentagon to bomb Third World countries into oblivion.

[jusplay4fun]

Cuts to "law enforcement, forest management, scientific research and more".

No cuts to the endless enhancement of the ability of the Pentagon to bomb Third World countries into oblivion.

Like the "bombs" (artillery) US is sending to Ukraine?

[Dukasaur]

Cuts to "law enforcement, forest management, scientific research and more".

No cuts to the endless enhancement of the ability of the Pentagon to bomb Third World countries into oblivion.

Like the "bombs" (artillery) US is sending to Ukraine?

Fair point, but that's a fraction of the total "defense" (ROFL!) budget.

[jusplay4fun]

Cuts to "law enforcement, forest management, scientific research and more".

No cuts to the endless enhancement of the ability of the Pentagon to bomb Third World countries into oblivion.

Like the "bombs" (artillery) US is sending to Ukraine?

Fair point, but that's a fraction of the total "defense" (ROFL!) budget.

If you are referring to Afghanistan, that is ended.

CBO: U.S. Federal spending and revenue components for fiscal year 2022. Major expenditure categories are healthcare, Social Security, and defense; income and payroll taxes are the primary revenue sources.

As the figure suggests, over 50% of discretionary spending is attributed to national defense. The remaining 48% of funds is divided among non-defense items such as transportation and education. Total discretionary spending approved for the fiscal year 2019 is $1,305 billion, just 28% of total spending.[10]

and interest on the Debt keeps increasing:

Interest on government debt
Oftentimes, federal governments spend more money than they collect in tax revenue in a given year. When the government spends more than it brings in, it runs a Budget Deficit that year.[17] In order to pay for the extra spending, governments issue debt. Government debt is the amount of money credited from individuals, firms, foreign entities as well as the federal government itself through the federal reserve system.[8] Debt accrues over time. Most public debt is held in the form of treasury bills and bonds, and the government has to repay debt over time. In order to provide an incentive for individuals, businesses and other entities to lend money, the government must also pay these parties interest on the debt.[18] The interest expense for fiscal year 2019 is $363 billion, or 7.9% of the total budget. According to estimates from the Office of Management and Budget, interest on government debt is expected to more than double by 2028 and account for a larger percentage of total expenditures.[10]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending_in_the_United_States#:~:text=CBO%3A%20U.S.%20Federal%20spending%20and,are%20the%20primary%20revenue%20sources.

and A LOT of money goes to Ukraine:

How Much Aid Has the U.S. Sent Ukraine? Here Are Six Charts.
Six graphics illustrate the extraordinary level of support the United States has provided Ukraine this past year in its war against Russian invaders.

Article by Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow

Last updated May 19, 2023 9:00 am (EST)

https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts

[url]Just How Much Aid Has the U.S. Sent to Ukraine?
Bilateral aid to Ukraine between
$76.8 Billion[/url]

[jimboston]

Does he often have conversations with himself or infer things that aren;t suggested or implied.

Oh yes… he does.

[jusplay4fun]

Does he often have conversations with himself or infer things that aren;t suggested or implied.

Oh yes… he does.

Wrong again, jimbo; I responded to Duk. Try reading and comprehending my previous post. Don't Don;t make up things.

[jusplay4fun]

US debt ceiling bill passes House with broad bipartisan support
By David Morgan, Richard Cowan and Moira Warburton
May 31, 20239:49 PM EDT

WASHINGTON, May 31 (Reuters) - A divided U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill to suspend the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling on Wednesday, with majority support from both Democrats and Republicans to overcome opposition led by hardline conservatives and avoid a catastrophic default.

The Republican-controlled House voted 314-117 to send the legislation to the Senate, which must enact the measure and get it to President Joe Biden's desk before a Monday deadline, when the federal government is expected to run out of money to pay its bills.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-debt-ceiling-bill-faces-narrow-path-passage-house-2023-05-31/#:~:text=WASHINGTON%2C%20May%2031%20(Reuters),and%20avoid%20a%20catastrophic%20default.

Neither side got ALL it wanted; compromise was and IS the KEY. Students of US History would validate this idea.

I got tired of extremists in BOTH parties complain about the compromise deal. That to me was a clear sign it was to pass the House.

Now 60+ votes are needed in the US Senate and, of course, then the signature of President Biden.

[jusplay4fun]

I am posting this from another thread that focuses mostly on unemployment. I think this discussion belongs HERE.

Agree with JP here, Fed at this point is the least partisan organization with power in the USG (though it isn't part of the USG officially).

Though I'd also point out money supply (M2) while an important indicator of monetary policy it is not an indicator of the health of the US economy, so that was a poor example to use imo. M2 is important but but that was just a poor context for it. I also think it's funny that you blamed biden for inflation in the thread you mentioned (again based on spending approved under Trump and tax cuts approved under Trump both of which are the main reasons inflation spiked), but now that it's 'getting under control' give all the credit to the fed, and don't even mention Biden... then you accuse someone else of 'left wing propaganda'

I think it's also important to point out the fed WANT'S higher unemployment rates, this is an important piece of lower inflation and an expected result of cranking up interest rates.

The US Economy is very complex, and GaryD wants to focus on only ONE data set to consider. [I said more than once that...] The President gets too much blame and too much credit for the Economy. I merely pointed out the M2 Money supply as another factor that someone else mentioned in the inflation [THIS] thread.

I still blame Biden for inflation as he wants to SPEND and not control spending. Look at all the negotiations about the current debt agreement. I think we have good evidence that excessive federal government spending has been a major cause of this current rounds of inflation, and when Biden took office, he showed NO restraint on federal spending.

The Fed is appointed to control inflation. Its actions over the past year or so have helped control inflation. You are correctm=, Mookie: I give Biden almost NO credit for the that.

3. Conducting Monetary Policy
The Federal Reserve sets U.S. monetary policy to promote maximum employment and stable prices in the U.S. economy.
VIDEO: Fed Functions: Conducting Monetary Policy

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/the-fed-explained.htm#:~:text=The%20Federal%20Reserve%20monitors%20financial,households%2C%20communities%2C%20and%20businesses.

As far as the deficit spending under Trump, much of that occurred in year 4 of his Administration to avoid the Economy sliding into a recession during the COVID Lock-down. Instead of curbing that excessive spending, Biden tried to SPEND EVEN MORE and cause even MORE inflation.

I am going to post this in the [THIS] inflation thread, as the Unemployment thread is too narrow and does not have the huge amount discussion that was presented there. I plan to discuss Economics there here.

[jusplay4fun]

It seems that the Fed has some idea how to slow the rate of inflation. Something seems to be working; GOOD..!

Fed Chair Powell sees progress on inflation, though not quickly enough

WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation may be cooling — just not yet fast enough for the Federal Reserve.

Chair Jerome Powell offered a nuanced view Wednesday of how the Fed intends to address its core challenge at a time when inflation is both way below its peak but still well above the central bank’s 2% target: Give it more time, and maybe some help from additional interest rate hikes.

Yet on a hopeful note, Powell also suggested that the trends that are needed to further slow inflation, from lower apartment rents to slower-growing wages, are starting to click into place.

As a result, the Fed decided Wednesday to forgo another increase in its benchmark interest rate, leaving it at about 5.1%. The pause followed 10 straight hikes in 15 months — the fastest series of increases in four decades.

By leaving rates alone, at least for now, Powell and other top Fed officials hope to use the extra time to more fully assess how higher borrowing rates have affected inflation and the economy. They also want to see whether the collapse of three large banks this spring will weigh on lending and growth.

In a surprisingly hawkish signal, the Fed’s policymakers issued projections Wednesday showing they envision as many as two additional quarter-point rate hikes before the year ends. (In Fed parlance, “hawks” generally favor higher rates to quell inflation, while “doves” typically advocate lower rates to aid a healthy job market.) Before this week’s policy meeting, Fed watchers had expected the policymakers to signal just one more rate increase this year.

In their new projections, the members of the Fed’s interest-rate committee were less divided than many economists had expected, with 12 of the 18 policymakers foreseeing at least two more quarter-point rate increases. Four favored one quarter-point hike. Only two envisioned keeping rates unchanged. The policymakers also predicted that their benchmark rate will stay higher for longer than they envisioned three months ago.

Powell noted that wage growth has slowed and cited some signs that the job market is cooling. Those factors, he added, should reduce inflationary pressures.

“I would almost say that the conditions that we need to see in place to get inflation down are coming into place,” Powell said. “But the process of that actually working on inflation is going to take some time.”

Inflation dropped to 4% in May compared with a year earlier, down sharply from a 9.1% peak last June. And many economists expect it to decline further. Rental costs are falling, and used car prices, which spiked in April and May, are also likely to drop.

Yet Powell underscored that the Fed will need to feel confident that inflation is moving steadily closer to its 2% target.

https://apnews.com/article/interest-rates-inflation-federal-reserve-economy-f6318be5023f6e50afc115778c9ec174

[mookiemcgee]

" Today we decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged, and to continue to reduce our securities holdings. "

Fed remains committed to continuing to dump on markets at a rate of $1 trillion/year. That should be the headline here, not that 'we are taking a month off of rate raises'

[mookiemcgee]

After capping out at almost 9% in June 2022, the monthly inflation rate has fallen to 3.24% in Nov 2023.

US Inflation Rate is at 3.24%, compared to 3.70% last month and 7.75% last year. This is lower than the long term average of 3.28%.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_infla ... ast%20year.

Meanwhile GDP growth is around 5.2% last quarter. Wage growth continues to increase. Middle class wealth is growing. Middle out economics (bidenomics) paired with aggressive early rate increases seems to be working.

So was it all transitory after all? been seeing images of people in texas paying 1.70c a gallon all over the internet this week.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings/
"Food prices are expected to continue to decelerate but not decline in 2024. In 2024, all food prices are predicted to increase 2.9 percent, with a prediction interval of -0.9 to 6.8 percent. Food-at-home prices are predicted to increase 1.6 percent, with a prediction interval of -4.0 to 7.8 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase 4.3 percent, with a prediction interval of 2.3 to 6.3 percent."

All in all the overall economy is in great shape right now, even if 'the sky is falling' fox news might lead you to believe otherwise just because of which party is in power.

Even the stock market is starting to recover in spite of the FED continuing to dump their assets on the market at a rate of $1 trillion dollars/year. We are now back to a fed balance sheet that mirrors July 2020 levels... Still a long way to go to get to pre-pandemic, and pre-'juicing an already strong market with unneeded QE programs' we saw throughout 2015-2020.

People don't feel optimistic at all right now, but they should!

Merry Christmas to the snowflakes that get upset about religion being taken out of the holiday season.

Happy Holidays to the snowflakes that feel religion is being pushed on them by an vocal minority.

GFY to anyone that disagrees with me!

[Pack Rat]

Mookie wins this thread!

[jusplay4fun]

If this is ALL due to what Biden (and the Fed) did, Biden is not getting the credit. I posted one poll on this matter in another thread:

https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=237819&start=400
The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly for the POTUS

And despite the rate of inflation SLOWING, most feel that they ARE NOT better off economically under Biden and his "Bidenomics." Bidenomics is a message that does not resonate with the American voters; hence Biden did not mention it today at Valley Forge in his campaign kick-off.

Biden focuses on Trump in speech near Valley Forge: "Democracy is on the ballot"
By Kathryn Watson

Updated on: January 5, 2024 / 8:56 PM EST / CBS News

In his first campaign speech of the election year, President Biden warned the nation against the perils of compromising democracy, and the threat he and his campaign believe former President Donald Trump poses to American democracy.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-marks-3-years-since-jan-6-2021-capitol-riot-valley-forge/

[pmac666]

If this is ALL due to what Biden (and the Fed) did, Biden is not getting the credit. I posted one poll on this matter in another thread:

https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=237819&start=400
The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly for the POTUS

And despite the rate of inflation SLOWING, most feel that they ARE NOT better off economically under Biden and his "Bidenomics." Bidenomics is a message that does not resonate with the American voters; hence Biden did not mention it today at Valley Forge in his campaign kick-off.

Biden focuses on Trump in speech near Valley Forge: "Democracy is on the ballot"
By Kathryn Watson

Updated on: January 5, 2024 / 8:56 PM EST / CBS News

In his first campaign speech of the election year, President Biden warned the nation against the perils of compromising democracy, and the threat he and his campaign believe former President Donald Trump poses to American democracy.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-marks-3-years-since-jan-6-2021-capitol-riot-valley-forge/

CAUSE IT WAS ABOUT DEMOCRACY!!!

"the economy sux cause Biden didnt mention it in his speech about democracy" - Jp4f hot take.

[jusplay4fun]

Don't feed the Trolls.

[jusplay4fun]

The speech at Valley Forge was labeled a campaign speech, pmac. Get your facts right, pmac. I already posted this, but the troll apparently MISSED it.

It seems that Biden felt he had NOTHING to brag about or discuss on the US Economy as he kicks off his campaign.

Transcript: Biden’s first campaign speech of the 2024 election year

Today, the topic of my speech today is deadly serious and I think it needs to be made at the outset of this campaign.

In the winter of 1777, it was harsh and cold as the Continental Army marched to Valley Forge. General George Washington knew he faced the most daunting of tasks, to fight and win a war against the most powerful empire in existence in the world at the time. His mission was clear: liberty, not conquest. Freedom. Not domination. National independence. Not individual glory.

https://apnews.com/article/biden-speech-valley-forge-trump-campaign-bda2293cac2b30e49157c2e6fb256d64

And

Inflation is worse that expected:

Today at 8:47 AM EST
Brett LoGiurato
Inflation ticks higher than expected in December
Thursday's highly anticipated inflation report showed that consumer prices increased slightly more than expected in November.

A quick look at the numbers:

Headline CPI, month over month: 0.3% increase vs. 0.2% expected

Headline CPI, year over year: 3.4% vs. 3.2% expected

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-us-stocks-wobble-as-inflation-jumps-more-than-expected-194456361.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKBcbfZz_hGh1m_AX2HTosPhJsXiSyg6Av_y1BBRdsVtwAYHK53miroetX80SPC9DSC5J7g80eiiyrB6B8ni8gMAr3aD2PWL9PaVPpzN66Y7LxFYg4uDKbqQZPhB1WPJ_IEkAAl22jINgEF3EVKRQGVUOlUH6m6IC4GDqL-xws3z#:~:text=Inflation%20ticks%20higher%20than%20expected,%3A%203.4%25%20vs.%203.2%25

[Pack Rat]

If this is ALL due to what Biden (and the Fed) did, Biden is not getting the credit. I posted one poll on this matter in another thread:

https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=237819&start=400
The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly for the POTUS

And despite the rate of inflation SLOWING, most feel that they ARE NOT better off economically under Biden and his "Bidenomics." Bidenomics is a message that does not resonate with the American voters; hence Biden did not mention it today at Valley Forge in his campaign kick-off.

Biden focuses on Trump in speech near Valley Forge: "Democracy is on the ballot"
By Kathryn Watson

Updated on: January 5, 2024 / 8:56 PM EST / CBS News

In his first campaign speech of the election year, President Biden warned the nation against the perils of compromising democracy, and the threat he and his campaign believe former President Donald Trump poses to American democracy.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-marks-3-years-since-jan-6-2021-capitol-riot-valley-forge/

CAUSE IT WAS ABOUT DEMOCRACY!!!

"the economy sux cause Biden didnt mention it in his speech about democracy" - Jp4f hot take.

Here we go with jusplay4fun repeating the "troll" word.

Just like what pmac666 said, "CAUSE IT WAS ABOUT DEMOCRACY!!!

Jusplay4fun you are the one who is being a troll. I normally stay away from others who try to debate issues or simply having a discussion between 2 rational posters. Reading your rants and name calling is becoming seriously a bore.

Again, President Biden's speech was about democracy and the dangers that Trump could conceivably pose to our fragile democracy/Constitutional Republic.

[jusplay4fun]

If this is ALL due to what Biden (and the Fed) did, Biden is not getting the credit. I posted one poll on this matter in another thread:

https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=237819&start=400
The 2024 Elections in the US, mostly for the POTUS

And despite the rate of inflation SLOWING, most feel that they ARE NOT better off economically under Biden and his "Bidenomics." Bidenomics is a message that does not resonate with the American voters; hence Biden did not mention it today at Valley Forge in his campaign kick-off.

Biden focuses on Trump in speech near Valley Forge: "Democracy is on the ballot"
By Kathryn Watson

Updated on: January 5, 2024 / 8:56 PM EST / CBS News

In his first campaign speech of the election year, President Biden warned the nation against the perils of compromising democracy, and the threat he and his campaign believe former President Donald Trump poses to American democracy.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/joe-biden-marks-3-years-since-jan-6-2021-capitol-riot-valley-forge/

CAUSE IT WAS ABOUT DEMOCRACY!!!

"the economy sux cause Biden didnt mention it in his speech about democracy" - Jp4f hot take.

Here we go with jusplay4fun repeating the "troll" word.

Just like what pmac666 said, "CAUSE IT WAS ABOUT DEMOCRACY!!!

Jusplay4fun you are the one who is being a troll. I normally stay away from others who try to debate issues or simply having a discussion between 2 rational posters. Reading your rants and name calling is becoming seriously a bore.

Again, President Biden's speech was about democracy and the dangers that Trump could conceivably pose to our fragile democracy/Constitutional Republic.

So the ENTIRE Biden campaign is to call Trump a threat to Democracy? That is the entire speech, to kick off his campaign. It seems that pmac and his parrot pack rat think so.

[pmac666]

Misread, sry.