by Simreth on Sun Nov 29, 2009 6:13 pm
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Re: Change FLAT RATE bonuses.
Postby Simreth on Thu Oct 15, 2009 4:03 pm
lancehoch wrote:
e_i_pi wrote:
Joodoo wrote:
e_i_pi wrote:The chances of having a mixed is the same as the chances of having a coloured set you know
then we should make all of the sets worth 10 armies / 8 armies
That's what I mean.
RRR: 6 armies
GGG: 6 armies
BBB: 6 armies
RGB: 10 armies
is exactly the same as
RRR: 10 armies
GGG: 6 armies
BBB: 6 armies
RGB: 6 armies
statistically
pi, that is not true.
Subject: 10 army sets... are these common to turn in repeatedly?
lancehoch wrote:To answer the question from the thread title, actually mixed sets are more common than any single instance of a single colored set:
3 cards: 27 possibilities- 1/27 red, 1/27 green, 1/27 blue, 6/27 mixed, 18/27 no set
4 cards: 81 possibilities- 9/81 red, 9/81 green, 9/81 blue, 36/81 mixed, 18/81 no set
5 cards (note you can have a mixed set and a plain color set, I am counting these as mixed): 243 possibilities- 31/243 red, 31/243 green, 31/243 blue, 150/243 mixed, 0/243 no set
in percentages (mixed only):
3 cards: 22.22%
4 cards: 44.44%
5 cards: 61.73%
So to answer your question, yes it is very common to get a mixed set.
More in depth analysis for the 5 card situations:
only red: 31/243
only green: 31/243
only blue: 31/243
only mixed: 90/243
red and mixed: 20/243
green and mixed: 20/243
blue and mixed: 20/243
totals:
red: 51/243
green: 51/243
blue: 51/243
mixed: 150/243
What I would suggest is (if there is to be a change) actually changing the values to mixed = 4 and red/green/blue = 10.
Given the probabilities I would agree that there should be a game type to compensate for this. Possibly a true flat rate, 6 or 8 or 10 whatever, but all sets given equal compensation.
However relatively speaking the cumulative probability of turning in all of one color, red is = green is = blue.
With 5 cards, that is to say P(RRR, GGG, BBB) = 153/243 or about 63% vs. any combination of P(RGB) at about = 62%
At 4 cards, P(RRR, GGG, BBB) = 33% vs any combination of P(RGB) = 44%
At only 3 cards P(RRR, GGG, BBB) = 11% vs. any combination of P(RGB) = 22%
If we were going to be "Fair" about compensation for cards we would have to figure out a percentage based measurement which would be separate for each number of cards such as:
With 5 cards compensation for RRR, GGG, BBB = RGB since percentages are relatively the same.
With 4 cards possibly one extra troop.
With 3 cards perhaps a set of RRR, GGG, BBB should be 2xRGB that of RGB or maybe two additional troops since the likelihood is half.
The problem is figuring out how large a percentage advantage is needed for each additional troop. It all seems fairly extreme, it would be much easier to just make another variation of game with a true flat and equal rate for any card set.