red_dawn wrote:At this point in CC history, I'm sure the adminstrators for this site have stopped reading posts about bad dice odds. But as a new user, I still have the energy and frustration and naive optimism that they will actually change the site, to motivate me to post this...
No, we still read the dice posts. But I don't think either side seems to be getting anywhere. Lackattack and I have discussed some ways to display your dice information better---one idea may be to essentially build in a dice history to each player profile that would keep track of your rolls, and present you with a summary similar to the Dice Analyzer, but without the need of the plugin.
It's very easy to calculate real-world dice odds. It's fairly easy to write a program to generate numbers that will match real-world dice odds. It's somewhat challenging, but should still be feasible, for the site to track (or at least sample) the rolls in their games to see if the dice rolls statistically match what they should be. And not just the total attacker wins v. defenders wins, it should be how many 1's were rolled, how many 2's, etc, and whether the sequences of each are still within the limits of reasonable statistical probability. This makes me certain that the folks who run this site know exactly what the stats on their dice are.
It's been shown a handful of times, be various independent user studies, that the dice are falling within 'random.' Though complaints about 'Dice Streakiness,' which some say is another issue, still persist.
I am convinced the dice odds do not match real-world odds. A 6-on-1 has a 99.67% chance of winning, so let's call it a 300 battle return period for losing. I've only played 10 games on this site, and I've lost 3 or 4 of these 6 v 1 battles, I would guess out of 20 or 30 attempts at these odds. I can't prove any of this, it's all anecdotal, but it's enough to confirm to me personally that the CC odds don't match real dice.
Have you tried using any of the Dice stat plugins created by users to keep track and tally all of your data? Anecdotal evidence is always slim.
So based on this, (i) the dice odds aren't "accurate" when compared to real dice, and (ii) the site adminstrators already know this. I can only assume that either (a) they did it on purpose to add a stronger element of chance to the games, or (b) the company they hired to write the dice roll software did it secretly and now CC has decided to just leave it the way it is. I'm going to assume this was done on purpose by CC.
I think these are some inaccurate conclusions based on the data/evidence/assumptions you initially started with. There is no real way for Conquer Club to manipulate the dice rolls, so conspiracy theories about those should go down the drain. If you check the FAQ, we use
http://www.random.org, which we did not 'hire to write the dice roll software.'
The next question is... who cares? A lot of people respond to this by saying that it evens out between attacker and defender, and that it's pretty close to random anyway, so it's not that big a deal. My personal impression is that the CC rolls tend to favor the defender more often, but that's irrelevant. To me, the important thing to think about is strategy versus luck, not whether it is evens out across all players. What kind of game do we want to play? Maybe the CC creators and the bulk of CC users would rather play a game that has more to do with luck than strategy.
A lot of people care, this is true. I care. Honestly, I really think after having played here for a handful of years, that strategy is becoming more and more prevalent in our gaming than it was in the early days where we had few maps.
Or if that's going too far, maybe they want more luck involved than how the games would play with "real" dice. Maybe a lot of people think this makes the games more fun.
In regards to the 'real dice' that are always propped up, check out my analogy of
real dice vs internet dice in the form of vehicle driving vs being a passenger in an airplaine. I'm not sure it is completely fitting, but I think it helps me understand a lot of the sentiment out there about the dice.
To me, this makes the games much less interesting. I joined this to compete in strategy games, and yes, an element of luck makes it more challenging, but when luck becomes too much a factor, it just makes it frustrating. Player's decisions will become more random, just like the underlying odds. People make bad decisions and get rewarded. People make good decisions and pay for it. Unskilled players win, skilled players lose. Does this make it more fun? To me, it doesn't at all, it just makes me want to stop using this site.
Perhaps you should check out the Society of the Cooks? Their graduates are some pretty good evidence that with specific decision making skills, focus, and practiced-know-how, that strategy can triumph and lead someone from a Cook to a Captain.
Unfortunately, or fortunately, CC is the best site of its kind that I could find online, but this is DESPITE their dice odds, not because of it.
Who says the randomness of real dice is better for the game than the "streakier" dice that CC uses? I think that real dice have the same randomness that you see everywhere else in the world, it is "natural" randomness. Life involves chance, and that's what makes it fun, but by adding more to chance, you're not going to make it better. Einstein said "God does not play dice", and I think if he were alive, and if he played on CC (which of course he would), then he would say "CC should not play God with dice".
So what can CC users do about this? Continue posting to forums that the brass have stopped reading? Fill out technical support tickets? All I can think of is withholding my payment for premium membership. I can't boycott this site because I'm addicted to it, but I can still use my consumer power to push CC to fix this. I want a strategy game, if I wanted a random game of luck I would play slot machines.
We understand your sentiments, they aren't alone. And we've been investigating ways to show more so that the dice are well within 'random.' Sometimes though, when we do come across those concerned with the dice---their concerns lies in the fact that they lost, had poor strategy, or did understand the game. We can't really fix those concerns, other than pointing you to our Instructions page, making map images and descriptions of game play clear in the map making process, and pointing you to the Society of the Cooks for classes on improved strategy, in addition to working on our Official Strategy Guide Project.
I'm pretty sure no one who can make a difference will ever read this, but I feel better already, thanks for reading.
You should stay here longer at CC, since you mention you are new, and you'll realize our Team is pretty active in reading and responding.
--Andy
