Mini-Mafia 2 [5/9] N3 - going quietly into the dark

[DiM]

@iron. i already said i'm prepared to accept your explanation about missing hippo8's claim. i was actually more concerned with the 6 day submarining. and you didn't offer any reasonable explanation for that. you didn't post anything for 6 days and then 15 minutes after i fos you for submarining you appear and post.

also i don't see how you would be sacrificing yourself. you were placing hippo at L-1 leaving the hammering for somebody else. that somebody who hammers becomes the prime suspect if hippo turns out town, right?

and you say if hippo is a bodyguard then he's just a meatshield that dies. but hippo posted that his "role has other information" too. so i'm assuming he's not just a simple bodyguard.
from what i researched online there's a bodyguard variation that acts like a bomb. he saves the target and dies doing so but he also kills the criminal. this would make him very powerful as mafia would not risk doing a night kill on him especially on a small game like this. so the best scenario for mafia would be that this bodyguard gets lynched.
if this is the case then i guess you would take the risk of placing him at L-1 hoping somebody hammers. and if nobody hammers and you're confronted you can take a little heat for this as you can always claim it was a mistake.

on a somewhat related note, cms5 also didn't come up with an explanation for his submarining. just like IB he also had a 6 day gap (16th-22nd) between his posts and he didn't explain it.

[Nebuchadnezer]

Vote Count 1.5
Hippo - 2 (chuck, neb)
IB - 3 (hippo, lovo, DiM) L-2

Not voting - 4- MeDeFe, CMS, militant, IB
With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch
Deadline is set for Wednesday, 25th of July.
in the event that no majority is achieved by deadline (which is still subject to change) a no lynch will occur

Unvote

I haven't been playing long enough to know if bodyguard is a good fake claim, which is why I wanted to hear from everyone. I would guess that the only way to catch him would be to track/watch him, if he were lying. I will point out this...

My role has other information but I imagine I'd get mod-killed if I said that (I will check if necessary).

This would be the first time I've come across a Bodyguard with "other" information...now I'm curious.

I'm not sure where to go...Iron looks a bit off, but if you look at the times of his original post, it does seem to be rather close. I've had it happen to me that I got fastposted without notice, and I lose out on seeing a bunch of posts, because I never go back to look...He's at L-2, so I don't want to put him at L-1...the arguments by both seem to be full of WIFOM and "intentions" and "thoughts" vs. hard facts. It's hard to say either side is right or wrong here.

Beyond that, there isn't much to go off of. Crazy has a whole 2 posts. I don't know...

FASTPOSTED by DIM...lol...he's taking all my points I just made!

[Iron Butterfly]

@iron. i already said i'm prepared to accept your explanation about missing hippo8's claim. i was actually more concerned with the 6 day submarining. and you didn't offer any reasonable explanation for that. you didn't post anything for 6 days and then 15 minutes after i fos you for submarining you appear and post.

also i don't see how you would be sacrificing yourself. you were placing hippo at L-1 leaving the hammering for somebody else. that somebody who hammers becomes the prime suspect if hippo turns out town, right?

and you say if hippo is a bodyguard then he's just a meatshield that dies. but hippo posted that his "role has other information" too. so i'm assuming he's not just a simple bodyguard.
from what i researched online there's a bodyguard variation that acts like a bomb. he saves the target and dies doing so but he also kills the criminal. this would make him very powerful as mafia would not risk doing a night kill on him especially on a small game like this. so the best scenario for mafia would be that this bodyguard gets lynched.
if this is the case then i guess you would take the risk of placing him at L-1 hoping somebody hammers. and if nobody hammers and you're confronted you can take a little heat for this as you can always claim it was a mistake.

on a somewhat related note, cms5 also didn't come up with an explanation for his submarining. just like IB he also had a 6 day gap (16th-22nd) between his posts and he didn't explain it.

Once again your definition of submarining and mine differ. I was quiet vocal about getting a replacement for sheild. Up until that point everyone was sitting around with their finger up their ass wondering what to talk about.

You look at it as 6 days. I look at it as less then two pages. Why two pages you ask? I was extremely vocal about getting a replacement. The game really didnt start till page 5..as Vodean got a replacement. Hippo joke votes several times till the end of page 5. In fact the majority of posts are either of Hippo or of Vodean making a Vote count. Its not till page 6 that Vodean makes a deadline. Its on page seven that I post about Hippo.

I reserve the right to my play style. I hate the joke vote stage.Hw many games have you played to even recognize real submarining? Your perspective you see 6 days, which you make sound so ominous. Frm my perspective the game didnt really start till day 5 when we finally got a replacement.

[Iron Butterfly]

" Frm my perspective the game didnt really start till day 5 when we finally got a replacement."

Should read pg 5 not day 5.

[lord voldemort]

SO now you are denying submarining?? I have played many games...and not submarining when I see it...heck I have done it in my fair share of mafia games. Your defence is weak at best for day 1.

[DiM]

[...]
I reserve the right to my play style. [...]Hw many games have you played to even recognize real submarining? [...] Frm my perspective the game didnt really start till page 5 when we finally got a replacement

indeed i don't have a great deal of experience and until few weeks ago i didn't even know what submarining/scummarining is.
but you and cms5 were the least active of all the players and so i interpreted it as submarining.
even after shield was replaced you still waited for 4 and a half days before posting. from Tue Jul 17, 2012 6:32 pm when sg7 was replaced until Sat Jul 21, 2012 7:06 am when you posted. and your post comes 15 minutes AFTER i said you and cms5 were submarining thus making me wonder when you would have posted had i not accused you of submarining.

same goes for cms5, he waits even longer and posts only after vodean says he's gonna prod cms5.

and the thing is you were both posting each day in other games so it's not like you didn't have internet for a few days and that's why you didn't post here.

so until more experienced people step in and say this is not submarining i'm gonna keep my opinion that it is.
but i won't push this any further as indeed each of us has a different play style, plus according to the rules you're allowed to not post for days and you're basically forced to post only when prodded. i sense that you're already a bit annoyed so i won't insist on this matter until further feedback is received.

[MeDeFe]

Look at the time difference between when Hippo claimed and I voted Him.

time difference is irrelevant. when you click submit and a post was already made you see what was in that post and can change your message completely.

If you hit preview, though, any posts made will also be displayed, but they won't be as obvious as if you had tried to submit.
So you compose your post, hit preview and check for errors and typos, new posts are displayed but you don't notice them because the page defaults to your post, you submit it and get no warning.
It's a possible explanation for why he didn't notice the other posts at the time, but it does nothing to explain IB's submarining.

[Iron Butterfly]

You guys are saying the same crap over and over.

Sub Sub Sub. Nothing was happening in the game to begin with.

Lets cut the crap...either you beleive I am Mafia or you believe I am Town.

DiM has been the one to press me with "why I could be mafia" Everyone else has been pretty much repeating the same crap and feeding off of DiMs arguments.

Lets for a moment assume I am Town. Mafia smelled blood and took advantage of the situation, which is a smart thing to do. By taking advantage they were able to stoke the fire and stand back, while others presented the case.

I beleive DiM is Town because DiM is playing like Dim. He posts the way he argues with everyone on the forums He does make valid points and tries to cover all the bases. He also relies a bit heavily on WIFOM arguments. However he does make an effort to make a coherent presentation.

Then you have someone like Lord V. He makes one or two sentence posts by making sweeping generalities, not really contributing anything logical. He speaks in a general way to make it seem he is contributing but he really isn't.

I have myself to blame of course as I have supplied the ammo. In some ways this will help Town as it narrows the field for me. By that I suspect at least one of the folks pressing me is mafia.

I am Town Cop

So I guess we play a game of follow the cop now. We also get to test Hippos claim, though he has been strangely silent since he claimed. He was a regular chatter box up until that point.

[thehippo8]

You guys are saying the same crap over and over.

Sub Sub Sub. Nothing was happening in the game to begin with.

Lets cut the crap...either you beleive I am Mafia or you believe I am Town.

DiM has been the one to press me with "why I could be mafia" Everyone else has been pretty much repeating the same crap and feeding off of DiMs arguments.

Lets for a moment assume I am Town. Mafia smelled blood and took advantage of the situation, which is a smart thing to do. By taking advantage they were able to stoke the fire and stand back, while others presented the case.

I beleive DiM is Town because DiM is playing like Dim. He posts the way he argues with everyone on the forums He does make valid points and tries to cover all the bases. He also relies a bit heavily on WIFOM arguments. However he does make an effort to make a coherent presentation.

Then you have someone like Lord V. He makes one or two sentence posts by making sweeping generalities, not really contributing anything logical. He speaks in a general way to make it seem he is contributing but he really isn't.

I have myself to blame of course as I have supplied the ammo. In some ways this will help Town as it narrows the field for me. By that I suspect at least one of the folks pressing me is mafia.

I am Town Cop

So I guess we play a game of follow the cop now. We also get to test Hippos claim, though he has been strangely silent since he claimed. He was a regular chatter box up until that point.

Sorry all, I'm a tad busy as I'm getting ready to go away for two weeks from next week. Shouldn't affect the game in any way.

You are right to call me on it though, IB, I have been watching and reading and waiting for people to put their money where their mouth is.

You are also right that it is a matter of beilief. That's why I have voted for you. You have also rightly said that you made this mess for yourself and that's the way the cookie crumbles.

I do wish that people would stop chattering for chattering's sake and make a decision! But what else can I do but wait? All the arguments for and against are there. People just need to DO something.

[Iron Butterfly]

So your willing to lynch the claimed cop?

[thehippo8]

So your willing to lynch the claimed cop?

I am not averse to being swayed by other's opinions and certainly if there is a counter-claim then we will have an issue. But it is not inconceivable that there is no cop in this game at all. You are not in immediate danger of being lynched and I want to hear from others. I was just pointing out what my belief is at the moment and why my vote is where it is!

[Nebuchadnezer]

So your willing to lynch the claimed cop?

I am not averse to being swayed by other's opinions and certainly if there is a counter-claim then we will have an issue. But it is not inconceivable that there is no cop in this game at all. You are not in immediate danger of being lynched and I want to hear from others. I was just pointing out what my belief is at the moment and why my vote is where it is!

I'm not following...It's also not inconceivable that there is no bodyguard in this game at all. How much do you want to play the mod? You make no sense here...I will not vote for Iron, if that is what you are asking.

[thehippo8]

I will not vote for Iron, if that is what you are asking.

So noted. Now we need to hear from chuck, medefe and mili.

[lord voldemort]

unvote

town cop is a pretty ballsy fake claim...I disagree that my posts were sweeping generalisations. I was stating pretty clear evidence...that lead me to believe you were acting scummy....and I wasnt the only one doing so.
Id rather not get any more role claims out today if it can be helped.

[thehippo8]

unvote

town cop is a pretty ballsy fake claim...I disagree that my posts were sweeping generalisations. I was stating pretty clear evidence...that lead me to believe you were acting scummy....and I wasnt the only one doing so.
Id rather not get any more role claims out today if it can be helped.

Well, on that note I will concede the point to IB. I agree it's unlikely to be a fake claim, particularly the passage of time and no counter claim. That rather points the light at those not contributing. We have two choices ... pursue a further case or just throw in the towell (the evil spectre of no lynch). I've never been in a game where everyone agreed on a no lynch but have been in games where there has been this type of fizzle and the effluxion of time ended up with the deadline passing with the same result. It goes against my nature to no lynch, but I'm not feeling the case against Epi and raising a new case now on the basis of submarining just looks silly. Umm ... oh well to put my money where my mouth is ... unvote

[DiM]

since nobody counterclaimed IB i believe him.
the town cop claim could be very easy to verify, at least compared to the bodyguard claim.

also the first post says: "This will be a classic mafia game, with a slight variation on the set-up. "
so i'm thinking chances are the cop is a simple normal one, not insane or anything.
or if the cop were insane we'd have another one around that's sane, right? and since nobody else claimed cop then ib is probably sane.

now, thing is we're not that much better from the start in finding out the mafia. we've exposed 2 potential town power roles so we've narrowed down the pool for potential mafia but at the same time we also need to protect those 2 power roles.

so for now i think we have 3 tasks:
1. prove the 2 town PRs
2. protect the 2 town PRs
3. try to expose and lynch a mafia before the day is over.

1 & 2 can be combined. let's say hippo protects IB and if we have a doctor (don't claim) he/she could protect hippo? would this work?
i'm pretty sure we have a doc since this is classic mafia, right?

[DiM]

oh and unvote

[Iron Butterfly]

since nobody counterclaimed IB i believe him.
the town cop claim could be very easy to verify, at least compared to the bodyguard claim.

also the first post says: "This will be a classic mafia game, with a slight variation on the set-up. "
so i'm thinking chances are the cop is a simple normal one, not insane or anything.
or if the cop were insane we'd have another one around that's sane, right? and since nobody else claimed cop then ib is probably sane.

now, thing is we're not that much better from the start in finding out the mafia. we've exposed 2 potential town power roles so we've narrowed down the pool for potential mafia but at the same time we also need to protect those 2 power roles.

so for now i think we have 3 tasks:
1. prove the 2 town PRs
2. protect the 2 town PRs
3. try to expose and lynch a mafia before the day is over.

1 & 2 can be combined. let's say hippo protects IB and if we have a doctor (don't claim) he/she could protect hippo? would this work?
i'm pretty sure we have a doc since this is classic mafia, right?

You are wrong in a few ways. So with all do respect I appreciate you trying to lead but you are the blind leading the blind either that you are scum.

From my stand point as cop we have a ton of info to go on. As I stated earlier Mafia knows I am Town. They smelled blood when I made my mistake. I have no doubt that at least one mafia was on me. I could be wrong BUT even if I get an innocent we will at least know who is Town. Yes you can WIFOM all you want with what if your paranoid or insane. With a game this size we go with what is probable, which is why you will never know someones role 100% until after they are dead.

Second the protection of Hippo is secondary. His job if he is telling the truth is to keep the PRs alive. If Hippo is telling the truth and there is no doc I have one shot. If Hippo is lieing we most likely have a doc to protect me. I am not sure of the probability of having both a Doc and Bodyguard.

DiM the fact that you are trying to direct the DOC is extremely scummy. If Hippo is lieing I am screwed. Why would the doc protect a role role whos job it is to die protecting? Why would the doc NOT protect the one person who can tell the good guys from bad?

[DiM]

i was just trying to help since nobody seemed take lead and devise a plan or something.
thing is we're very close to the deadline (25th) and sitting quietly waiting for the night to come is the worst thing we could do right now.

i never quite understood the wifom thing.

what do you mean by this: "you can WIFOM all you want with what if your paranoid or insane"?

From my stand point as cop we have a ton of info to go on.

i'm saying you're not paranoid or insane. that would be very unlikely. i'm almost certain that if you're a cop then you're a sane one.
am i wrong in my argumentation?

also the first post says: "This will be a classic mafia game, with a slight variation on the set-up. "
so i'm thinking chances are the cop is a simple normal one, not insane or anything.
or if the cop were insane we'd have another one around that's sane, right? and since nobody else claimed cop then ib is probably sane.

From my stand point as cop we have a ton of info to go on.

we do only if you survive, right? that's why i was trying to devise a plan for protecting both you and hippo.

Second the protection of Hippo is secondary. His job if he is telling the truth is to keep the PRs alive. If Hippo is telling the truth and there is no doc I have one shot. If Hippo is lieing we most likely have a doc to protect me. I am not sure of the probability of having both a Doc and Bodyguard.
DiM the fact that you are trying to direct the DOC is extremely scummy. If Hippo is lieing I am screwed. Why would the doc protect a role role whos job it is to die protecting? Why would the doc NOT protect the one person who can tell the good guys from bad?

it's certainly not what i planned.
are the doc and bodyguard mutually exclusive?

i was basing my ideas on vodean's indication that this is a classic mafia game with a slight variation.
so from researching online i found that a classic setup for a 9 player mafia game is like this.
1. 3 non town (2 mafia + sk/jester) and 6 town (cop doc vig + townies)
2. 2 mafia and 7 town (cop doc vig + townies)

so with this in mind i was thinking that if the doc protects hippo and hippo protects you then you'll both be safe and you'll both be able to prove your claims and bring info for the town, all at the same time. when i wrote it it seemed like the ideal scenario for solving all the problems.

starting from the fact that you're cop there are the following scenarios:

1. doc>hippo>you
1.1. if doc exists and hippo says the truth then you're both safe and we validate both your claims and you get to investigate somebody.
1.2. if doc doesn't exist then:
1.2.1. you die if hippo lied - and this way we know to lynch hippo
1.2.2. you survive if hippo said the truth - and if hippo is also a special bodyguard he kills a mafia plus you get to investigate somebody.

2. doc>you, hippo>you
2.1. if doc exists then you're safe. but i don't know if we'll find out if hippo said the truth. how would this scene be? would the doc protect you or would the bodyguard do it? is the order in which the actions are sent to the host important?
2.2. if doc doesn't exist then:
2.2.1. you die if hippo lied - and we know to lynch hippo
2.2.2. you survive if hippo said the truth - and if hippo is also a special bodyguard he kills a mafia plus you get to investigate somebody.

am i doing something wrong here? i'm trying to think this logically and i still think my scenario of doc>hippo>you is the most rewarding compared to doc>you, hippo>you.

[DiM]

pff i just realised there are far more scenarios. mine was based on you being targeted by the mafia.
they could actually target hippo or even make a random kill hoping you won't investigate one of them.

[DiM]

however i do have another theory but i'm leaving now. i'll post it in half an hour or so.

[Iron Butterfly]

Dim. A little knowledge is dangerous. You can WIFOM all you want. Sometimes its best to be quiet and let others talk. You can not protect against possible scenarios you create as they may or may not exist. You also have no idea what roles are out there. All you can do is use the facts at hand.

1) I am the Cop unless someone counterclaims.

2) Hippo has claimed Bodyguard

2) If someone counterclaims then you guys will need to choose between who is lieing and who is telling the truth.

3) You can what if all you want. That will not change the present reality.

[DiM]

could you explain the wifom part?
i understand it means "wine in front of me" but i have no idea how it applies in a mafia game.

why are you cutting down my wings?
i had such a nice theory i was ready to write and you've cut my momentum.
i like making scenarios and theories and what ifs. i regard every game as a puzzle, a mystery that needs solving. and making scenarios, even outlandish ones is part of this.

for example in the infection mafia i actually came up with a theory that described what was going on and i think it was right from day 1. thing is, it seemed so far fetched i wasn't even sure it could be true so nobody bothered to take it serious.

but ok, i'll take your advice: "Sometimes its best to be quiet and let others talk".

hopefully somebody will talk otherwise we'll end up with no lynch. plus i get bored if i don't make long posts

[Iron Butterfly]

I am not cutting your wings..Im just trying to set things straight.

Here is where the WIFOM originated. It pretty much means that one can speculate forever on something that could possibly happen but has not yet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9f3GSA9yfc

enjoy.

[DiM]

sorry if i'm being thick here. how was i WIFOMing? from what i read in the description of the movie i see "WIFOM occurs when a player tries to outthink another based on the way they acted". but i was merely speculating and advancing ideas i had. i wasn't in a debate with anybody or contradicting on anything. i was merely writing down that i think that if you're a cop, then you're a sane one because an insane cop would not fit in our current scenario and because if there were 2 cops the second one would have counterclaimed you. basically i just writing down my thoughts hoping others would pick up and we'd figure out a plan together.

anyway, i found this following quote on the wiki:

WIFOM is arguably the most misapplied term in the Mafia lexicon, and for years the standard approach to has been to throw out any ambiguous evidence. This is not optimal, as WIFOM situations are generally not purely random. However, WIFOM arises precisely because someone is difficult to read, and the possibility of being wrong is inherent in making a choice.

Many times analyzing night kills is considered WIFOM, as only the killers can say with certainty why someone died. This is especially true when the kill choices were unexpected. At present, NK analysis is considered simply another possibly-reliable piece of evidence, neither useless nor authoritative.

so, is WIFOM a bad thing or not?
you said i was WIFOMing and it would be best if i let others talk so from that i understand you thing WIFOM is bad. plus you said we should rely only on facts not speculations. but the quote above says that "standard approach to has been to throw out any ambiguous evidence. This is not optimal, as WIFOM situations are generally not purely random"
so from what the wiki says WIFOM is actually good, right?

so wouldn't it be good if i kept on speculating?
i mean what's the harm in doing so? i'm not claiming my speculations are true. best case scenario i hit a sweet spot with my theories and a mafia says something wrong giving away his identity. worst case scenario nobody bothers to read my theories.