The Hobbit Mafia [Town win]

[ZaBeast]

I agree the quick lynch was pretty suspicious. When I voted BuJ, I felt a quicklynch was probable and I was getting scummy vibes from BuJ, as I explained in previous posts. I also wanted to provide an alternative to a Ragian lynch, because offering none would have likely resulted in him being the only possible lynchee. It's a shame BuJ became a scapegoat due to his no lynch vote, because I didn't find the no-lynch vote in itself to be particularly scummy. On that matter, I'd say MP's vote is a bit weird, given BuJ was a L-2 before his vote (isn't the threshold for claiming usually L-2 from what I read?), and he said he voted only to get a claim.

BuJ isn't at the top of my list... and the folks I feel are most questionable seem to be leading this charge (shifting focus from KJ???)... but my list is iffy and I think a BuJ claim is better than no claim:

Unvote, Vote BuJaber.

He's probably town though. He got Gandalf as a name claim, and there's been a kill even if he says he was jailed. Therefore, I don't want to do scum's dirty work by lynching him (and we can be sure there's more than one scum remaining anyways). Now, can we all agree that a speed lynch does not give that much info, and can we try to get votes going BEFORE we are imposed a deadline?

I think what we should look at more is the lynch attempt at Ragian. He was a prime target for scum, since he soft-claimed some sort of roleblocking ability, so these are the people who would have the more incentive for lynching him, especially after his full-claim. Pika's explanation for lynching BuJ feels a bit disingenuous, since he was pushing hard for the lynch of someone who claimed jailor.

Those longer posts like at the beginning of the game each take me multiple hours to write, I just don't have the time/inclination right now.

Losing a VT as the worst case isn't a massive deal however, and I'd rather avoid another no lynch so...
Unvote: Ragian
Vote: BuJaber

And also HS's post

My opinion on Ragian's not full claiming is the same as on Mudpuppy not full claiming... it's usually a scum move to not full claim when at L-2, and half claims only make me more suspicious whatever the name claim is. I was also suspicious of Ragian for his soft defense of dakky on day 2. So if nothing changes I will hammer ragian before the deadline.

He did say he intended to hammer, and that post was after I said I believed Ragian to be a jailor, but before the actual claim from him. At the same time, HS didn't (hammer), so maybe that makes him more town? not sure.

Regarding the kill-less N1, I think there are 3 options
1- Scum targeted MM and the kill failed because he was jailed by Rag
2- An eventual doctor and scum chose the same target
3- Scum targeted the role left by IP, and LoVo conveniently decided he was commuting
What can we possibly deduce from these cases? (spoiler: not much)
1- Scum wanted to throw shade at the people voting MM, and the only scum in there was likely dakky (and it makes sense with his vengeful power that scum wouldn't mind that much throwing shade at him). As a reminder, the people that voted MM at the peak of the wagon (VC 1.6 I think): Minister Masket (6): ZaBeast, Ragian, BuJaber, Thorthoth, Hotshot53, dakky21 (and Flores forgotten by the mod)
The fact BuJ and Ragian are dead and were town and that thor is a mod-confirmed townie makes this option pretty plausible IMO.
2,3- nothing at all

[ZaBeast]

I agree the quick lynch was pretty suspicious.

Mostly talking about the speed at which it happened here.

[Minister Masket]

Well darn. I'm not entirely sure then why Ragian had such a rage-boner for me in the early game, especially before knowing I was a mason.

[Kamikaze Jawa]

Regarding the kill-less N1, I think there are 3 options
1- Scum targeted MM and the kill failed because he was jailed by Rag
2- An eventual doctor and scum chose the same target
3- Scum targeted the role left by IP, and LoVo conveniently decided he was commuting

I think the commuting power specified that he could commute on even nights, so not on N1

[HotShot53]

Well darn. I'm not entirely sure then why Ragian had such a rage-boner for me in the early game, especially before knowing I was a mason.

Because he jailed you night 1, and there was no kill night 1, he thought he might have blocked the killer which would make you scum. Unfortunately, that's not what happened, so it's not quite that simple

[Thorthoth]

Thorthoth: a saint, a living saint... but duly chastened for voting for BuJaber.
ZaBeast: Just shut up, If I didn't KNOW that you were town I would totally think you're scum. You led the the BuJaber lynch so don't blame anyone else.
Minister Masket: Nobody counteracted his claim, so we guess he's town... but what if he's not?

MudPuppy: Nobody counteracted his claim either, though this is the situation where a counterclaim could be a Catch-22. Town needs Gandalf, but is this really Gandalf?
FloresDelMal: Playing very town over all, but who really knows...
Kamikaze Jawa: One of the quiet one, Didn't vote for BuJaber but a Ragian vote doesn't look good either.
Samlen: another quiet one who co-led the BuJaber lynch with ZaBeast. For some reason has remained above suspicion... I want to find out more: FOS Samlen.
Pikanchion: started out scummy, until others outscummed him... or did they?
madmitch: Could be scum, could be nuts, could be both.
HotShot53: Seems to be the antithesis of MudPuppy. If MP is Gandalf we should be going after HS.
What's the next step in this morass...

Hey MudPuppy, does the word 'Elendil' mean anything to you?

[ZaBeast]

ZaBeast: Just shut up, If I didn't KNOW that you were town I would totally think you're scum. You led the the BuJaber lynch so don't blame anyone else.

Funny you'd say that...

So where does everybody stand now.
ZaBeast: Seems townie, but misguided. He needs to prevent a non-lynch.
[...]
Maybe Scum:
madmitch: A chaotic mess. Yeah he could be bad town.. If five would be too many scum then maybe that is the explanation.
BuJaber: He did a lot of scummy things. I f he was the lynch choice, I'd probably accept it... but I think ragian or mudpuppy is a better choice

Likely Scum:
MudPuppy: A real Gandalf shouldn't say he's Gandalf... even if a fake Gandalf pretends to be him.
Ragian: Beorn sounds like a fake claim and Minister said he wasn't jailed, right? So what does that tell you?
All his excuses lack substance, just ad-hoc straw grabbing.
[...]
So anyway, Sam, ZaBeast and HS, if two of the three of you can see fit to lynch Ragian maybe we can move this game forward.

Obviously the option you prefered was much better, right? Just shut up, If I didn't KNOW that you were town I would totally think you're scum.
And there's no point of making a list where you accuse most of the players without giving much in terms of arguments

Regarding the kill-less N1, I think there are 3 options
1- Scum targeted MM and the kill failed because he was jailed by Rag
2- An eventual doctor and scum chose the same target
3- Scum targeted the role left by IP, and LoVo conveniently decided he was commuting

I think the commuting power specified that he could commute on even nights, so not on N1

Right. For some reasons there are some words I always confuse, mostly thursday/tuesday, Even/odd and latter/former.
Options 1- and 2- still stand though.

[MudPuppy]

HotShot53: Seems to be the antithesis of MudPuppy. If MP is Gandalf we should be going after HS.
Hey MudPuppy, does the word 'Elendil' mean anything to you?

Yes & Yes.
Can we get some town unity here and just lynch HS? If he's not scum, I'll eat my hat... and it's a big hat.

Vote Hotshot

Also am highly suspect of KJ after the early momentum to vote him quickly shifted. Here's a summary of chronology:

• Ragian already had his vote on KJ
• I followed after Ragian finally claimed and I decided to shift to follow Ragian's lead.
• Mitch put the 3rd vote on KJ. (This gives me towny read on Mitch).
• HotShot voted Buj on weak case focused on Buj's misread of voting rules (which had been clarified earlier... basically a vote for skimming). ZaBeast & Sam were already on Buj.
• Flores then follows with a vote on Buj after saying she's giving Rag benefit of doubt (on case that was clearly already moving away from lynch) and that she's uncomfortable with case on KJ. Voted Buj for asking Ragian who he'd block in the night (not the wisest question to ask) and for the no lynch vote. She has towny reasons but I don't like her timing and am quite suspicious of her.
• Thor then follows BuJ vote
• I follow too since KJ push was dead in water at that point but warned I thought the folks shifting the vote were higher on my scum list.
• Not really part of this chronology but noteworthy that BuJ then voted HotShot before being lynched.
• Pika hammered... Still don't know what to make of him... the vote itself is not scummy at that point as it was just hammering a claimed VT.

[Thorthoth]

HotShot53: Seems to be the antithesis of MudPuppy. If MP is Gandalf we should be going after HS.
Hey MudPuppy, does the word 'Elendil' mean anything to you?

Yes & Yes.

You're just going to answer 'yes' for the second question, really?

[Samlen]

That lynch was way faster than I was expecting. KJ wasn't that high on my scum list until that lynch swayed so suddenly off of him onto buj. I'm not sure if I'd rather lynch hotshot or kj right now, so I'd like to hear from them a little more first about the suspicions on them before I decide (plus i'd rather not have a short day of no information and/or a repeat of that last lynch).

Ninja'd by thor. If he's just saying yes then he obviously doesn't want scum to know what it means.

[Thorthoth]

If MudPuppy is the town Gandalf then why didn't scum try to NK him last night?
Of course, one possibility is that scum assumed that Gandalf would be somehow protected and didn't want to waste the NK.
...but that seems excessively cautious of scum. There might not even be any bodyguard-type role protecting Gandalf at all...

Or conversely, if there is a town bodyguard committed to protecting MudPuppy each night that would leave the rest of town fully vulnerable and scum could safely take them out each night without missing a single NK.

Worst case scenario: MudPuppy is actually a lying scum non-Gandalf and the town protectors are wasting their protection on this guy, while the real town power-roles (and eventually vanillas) get picked off!

So with that at stake, on more time...

MudPuppy, what exactly does Elendil mean in reference to this game? You already said you know, sso now SAY WHAT YOU KNOW!

& Samlen, if he can't or ''won't''' answer it, you 're going to look pretty scummy too.

[MudPuppy]

HotShot53: Seems to be the antithesis of MudPuppy. If MP is Gandalf we should be going after HS.
Hey MudPuppy, does the word 'Elendil' mean anything to you?

Yes & Yes.

You're just going to answer 'yes' for the second question, really?

Well it's been quite a while since I've read about Elendil but "Yes" I'm familiar with it and you should KNOW that. Not sure what you're getting at since you've already deduced I'm town (no counterclaim, etc.).

[Thorthoth]

... for now, I will wait and observe.

[ZaBeast]

Also am highly suspect of KJ after the early momentum to vote him quickly shifted. Here's a summary of chronology:

I wouldn't be suspicious of KJ for something he had no control on, unless he could be a cult leader, like the ME game with mitch, but in this case (here), I'd rather suspect the people who tried to shift the momentum away from him, if there was ever such a thing. My vote and Sam's came before yours and mitch's vote on KJ, so at this time it was 3v2. Not sure how strong of a momentum that makes it. I just think the lynch-eager townies and scum jumped on the easiest wagon of the two. Just watch at how everyone used the question he asked Ragian about who he'd jail as a reason to vote him.

As I said, I believe it is plausible that MM was the NK target N1, which would indicate the people on his wagon were mostly town, so I'm willing to give HS a pass for now.

Pika hammered... Still don't know what to make of him... the vote itself is not scummy at that point as it was just hammering a claimed VT.

It's not the vote I feel fishy, but the reasonning. He said losing a VT isn't a big deal, while he did push for a Ragian lynch, even after he claimed jailor.

If MudPuppy is the town Gandalf then why didn't scum try to NK him last night?
Of course, one possibility is that scum assumed that Gandalf would be somehow protected and didn't want to waste the NK.
...but that seems excessively cautious of scum. There might not even be any bodyguard-type role protecting Gandalf at all...

MP said he was jailed, so if scum targeted him, he wouldn't have died. Scum also killed a jailor, which is an important town role, so I wouldn't hold the fact he didn't die against him.

[Thorthoth]

MP said he was jailed, so if scum targeted him, he wouldn't have died. Scum also killed a jailor, which is an important town role, so I wouldn't hold the fact he didn't die against him.

Then tonight, we lose MudPuppy, if he's town...

Things are looking bleak. This game has too many opportunities to get away with lying/scumarining and to few opportunities for cementing the truth.
So Za, on which number of the roulette wheel do you want to place the hopes of the town?

[ZaBeast]

HS: inactive due to RL reasons, and mostly used back other's people arguments instead of contributing some of his own. I wouldn't be opposed to lynching him, but I'd rather give him a pass for now and see how it looks like now that he should have more time.
Flores: not much stands out, but I couldn't help but notice she has been agreeing with me quite a lot on D3.
KJ: not much stands out because of the lack of substance
Pika: I'm waiting on his answer, but as I said, I feel the reasonning for his vote clashes with the pressure he was applying Ragian.
Sam: Voted no lynch on D1 (not alignment indicative), then didn't vote all of D2. Casted his first vote of D3 on MP, only to retract it after the name claim. Conveniently disappeared right after unvoting for a whole 3 days (when we were discussing a possible Ragian lynch). The number of times I've seen him as "reading the thread" doesn't match with the number of posts he made (especially, I remember seeing him while we were discussing a Ragian lynch). Also, he did defend dakky and is on a witch hunt of people on the dakky's wagon. He's my no.1 lynch candidate for now, so I'll vote Sam.
mitch: Rag and BuJ found him town, so I'm leaning town for him. I like that he didn't hammer Ragian, also the townie thing to do.

Here's what I got. Not much, since it seems I was wrong on the cases I made. If I had to rank everybody in terms of scumminess, I'd go with
Sam>HS>KJ>Flores=Pika>mitch

[Thorthoth]

Hmm, I already independently FOSed Sam...
The challenge is to separate his actual scum vibes from the meta-annoyance of his goody-two-shoes play style...
Yes, of the possible candidates, I think he is the best...
Vote Samlen.

[MudPuppy]

OK, let's lay it out. Town is in great shape but we need to stick together. We've likely got something like 7 town & 3 scum left. Of that we've got FOUR confirmed town:

Confirmed Town
Thor - Innocent child - confirmed by LoVo
MinisterMasket - Other half of mason pair (no counter claim)
MudPuppy - confirmed by Thor - gave him "Light of Earendil" on N1 which he used to confirm our final townie...
ZaBeast - confirmed by Thor

Of the remaining 6, presumably half are town too. If the confirmed townies can agree on who to lynch from the 6 and have the other townies follow, the game is practically won. I've also got a couple of tricks left up my sleeve which may help narrow our choices.

So, Minister & ZaBeast, you guys game? HotShot is my first choice based on scumarining, starting to shift vote from KJ to Buj, & a weak argument on Buj... as well as FOS'ing Gandalf (not an OMGUS vote... if anything, he's OMGUSing me since I've been suspicious of him since D1).

Based on the list you just posted, Beast, I'd say we're pretty in line with scum choices. Sam's a bit further down my list but your 2-4 are my 1-3 in a different order. Since Thor just FP'd me to join you, then I'll hop on the wagon too:

Unvote, Vote Samlen

[Thorthoth]

Wow, MudPuppy, that post actually does give me hope. The system can actually work.
...but we can't afford another mislynch.
For now, I'm fine with continuing the Sam lynch, but I'm also fine with switching to HS if that's what seems best.

[MudPuppy]

Wow, MudPuppy, that post actually does give me hope. The system can actually work.
...but we can't afford another mislynch.
For now, I'm fine with continuing the Sam lynch, but I'm also fine with switching to HS if that's what seems best.

HotShot would be my #1 pick... let's hear what MM has to say.

[Kamikaze Jawa]

Also am highly suspect of KJ after the early momentum to vote him quickly shifted

Oh don't worry, I'm pretty surprised by that too. If I was scum though, I think it would be a pretty dumb move to make such an obvious attempt to 'save' me from a lynch. So I genuinely can't be sure if those who voted for BuJ were scared townies, or scum making a calculated move to lynch BuJ, kill Ragian during the night, and then cast suspicion on me for the following day.

Mitch put the 3rd vote on KJ. (This gives me towny read on Mitch).

I've been suspicious of mitch since his odd behaviour with dakky, but I've come to realise he's just a follower and will jump on any easy bandwagon. I'm still not sold that he's town but there are better fish to fry at this moment.

And now given that I was suspicious of both Ragian and BuJ who have now been confirmed town, clearly my ability to read is weak AF, so I'm going to have to re-evaluate everything that I thought prior :/

[MudPuppy]

Sam: Voted no lynch on D1 (not alignment indicative), then didn't vote all of D2. Casted his first vote of D3 on MP, only to retract it after the name claim. Conveniently disappeared right after unvoting for a whole 3 days (when we were discussing a possible Ragian lynch). The number of times I've seen him as "reading the thread" doesn't match with the number of posts he made (especially, I remember seeing him while we were discussing a Ragian lynch). Also, he did defend dakky and is on a witch hunt of people on the dakky's wagon. He's my no.1 lynch candidate for now, so I'll vote Sam.

I did notice Sam on a few hours ago... and he posted in CYOC but chose not to post here. Could be completely innocent or perhaps your hunch is spot on... I could move him up my scum list a bit based on that and will keep my vote there for now. Still want to hear from Masket, though.

[Samlen]

Sam: Voted no lynch on D1 (not alignment indicative), then didn't vote all of D2. Casted his first vote of D3 on MP, only to retract it after the name claim. Conveniently disappeared right after unvoting for a whole 3 days (when we were discussing a possible Ragian lynch). The number of times I've seen him as "reading the thread" doesn't match with the number of posts he made (especially, I remember seeing him while we were discussing a Ragian lynch). Also, he did defend dakky and is on a witch hunt of people on the dakky's wagon. He's my no.1 lynch candidate for now, so I'll vote Sam.

I did notice Sam on a few hours ago... and he posted in CYOC but chose not to post here. Could be completely innocent or perhaps your hunch is spot on... I could move him up my scum list a bit based on that and will keep my vote there for now. Still want to hear from Masket, though.

I literally posted here 3 hours before this post I'm quoting, around the same time in cyoc =p. I don't post a lot because I'm indecisive.

As for the rest of the arguments against me, I've already explained my actions and don't feel like doing so again. I got sleep to catch so I hope people do a little more than attempt a speed lynch on me. It's day 4 by now, I would hope someone with actions has some answers by now. Or, at least give a better explanation why people are in certain positions on your scum lists.

[madmitch]

A jailkeeper claim isn't guaranteed to be town, as a scum rolebloker could masqueraded as a jailkeeper without stretching their role too far. However, based on Ragian's reaction with thinking he caught MM lying, I am leaning town on him for now. I'm not sure a scum roleblocker would have been that obvious he was a roleblocker on a gambit.

THIS is one reason I willing to not vote for H.S. at the moment, My sights are set on K.J. because Rags thought something was off but I am willing to go with towns decision

[Pikanchion]

Confirmed Town
Thor - Innocent child - confirmed by LoVo
MinisterMasket - Other half of mason pair (no counter claim)
MudPuppy - confirmed by Thor - gave him "Light of Earendil" on N1 which he used to confirm our final townie...
ZaBeast - confirmed by Thor

What?

-Thorthoth what are the exact mechanics of this item you gave to MudPuppy?